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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Teh Pitching Pipeline (tm) .
  2. ashbury
    He's had above league average OPS the past week and a half, so let's fix that by cherry picking away the good part?
  3. ashbury
    All our vaunted offense asked was for the bullpen to throw 4 shutout innings, to preserve a 2-1 victory. What's so hard about that?
  4. ashbury
    I fear this draft may contain only about 4 sure things, and at #8 we will be left to choose someone who isn't quite of the stature you can get in some other years. Bad timing, to have had a poor (but not quite poor enough) season in 2021.
  5. ashbury
    It's Nick Gordon's world - we're just privileged to live in it. I was at the game today, along with Mrs Ash and son Stashbury, way down the third base line near the foul pole. I was delighted to be mocked for my disparaging comments about our left fielder, as he came through again and again with key plays. The only flaw I choose to pin on to Gordon's game today is my opinion (not shared by my son) that the first run of the game was by the Tigers not respecting Gordon's arm in left. I imagine Willi Castro is a good leadoff baserunner, but it still seemed to me that with no outs the coach might have held the runner if someone with a threatening arm had been in left. As it turned out, with a lineout and a double play to follow, maybe a conservative approach would have cost the Tigers the run they earned - so I'm not saying the choice to send Castro was wrong, just that Gordon's arm gave them not even a second thought. As for Emilio Pagan... ugh. I've taken a whimsical approach to his recent appearances, as he has wriggled out of trouble time after time, and I unironically applaud his apparent coolness under pressure. "All he does is win," I've joked. No more. I don't want to see him when the game is on the line unless there are no competent late-inning options available that day.
  6. ashbury
    Take every team's platoon masher out of the picture, if you want to make that comparison.
  7. ashbury
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2022#all_plato Twins team OPS versus righties is .721, and against lefties it's .726. These are higher than AL numbers as a whole (.684 and .690 respectively).
  8. ashbury
    And people even smarter than them will second guess whichever way they go.
  9. ashbury
    Pitching matchup tomorrow: Sunday 1:10 pm CST: Sonny Gray (21-1, 2.60 ERA) Wow, the season is really flying by. Those are some Cy Young credentials he's putting up.
  10. ashbury
    Wasn't it two out? Santana had grounded out and Lopez had flied out. Duffy came in to face the 6-7-8 batters and when one reached he still could have finished matters against the lefty pinch hitter, but didn't.
  11. ashbury
    Buxton has more than one chronic ailment. Remember the migraines? He suffered a concussion or two as well. And the team doesn't announce each and every problem that the medical staff learns about in the course of their work day. I don't rule out that Byron's just not seeing the ball well, given the complicated relationship between brain function and vision. Oops, sorry, this was supposed to be a satire article. I was, um, satirizing those who take things too seriously, yeah, that's it.
  12. ashbury
    The key is to be able to define the problem. Then you can set analytics on it to see if it can be broken down to smaller sub problems, or whatever. Bill James did that to a degree not seen in baseball before. But he chose the easy problems - what is a single worth versus a double or a walk? What you are talking about seems an order of magnitude harder.
  13. ashbury
    Unscientific correlation here, but the sorted list of Twins pitchers by tempo with bases empty corresponds, especially at the bottom, with the pitchers I feel least confident in when their name is announced as coming into the game. Maybe they're not too confident either.
  14. ashbury
    Maybe not furlong though.
  15. ashbury
    Last year, it was like they found a new way to lose, every day. This year, it's a different way to win each time out. Good stuff!
  16. ashbury
    If Arraez is coming up every half inning, some other guys must be doing their jobs, too.
  17. ashbury
    Hey, Cano kept his team in the game. That's all you can ask of a reliever.
  18. ashbury
    He kept them in the game.
  19. ashbury
    Lots of batters may benefit from a more predictable zone. Pitching is about disrupting timing, and uncertainty of any kind has to contribute to that, even if the pitcher is the victim half the time when the call is incorrect. I'm a big proponent of automating the ball-strike call, but I believe some sort of adjustment in another way may also be necessary to maintain game balance - maybe a slightly bigger strike zone, for instance, or a little more-deadened ball.
  20. ashbury
    If it's really stopped then I can't see the digital display to confirm this bit of wisdom.
  21. ashbury
    Without the crying. So far.
  22. ashbury
    "This restaurant serves terrible food, but at least they keep the portions small."
  23. ashbury
    Pagan and the rest of staff killing time while waiting for the bullpen phone to ring.
  24. ashbury
    "Don't try to get everybody out. Clean innings are fascist. Put some runners on - it's more democratic." / I may have misremembered the movie quote slightly.
  25. ashbury
    A front office hears about things in the trainer's room and from medical staff that the general public never gets a whiff of. Minor ailments that respond to treatment, for instance. I imagine that an attitude sets in, "hey, show me a pitcher who HASN'T encountered elbow soreness." Still, by the time the public does become aware, the odds become higher that the problem is serious. Statisticians have a concept about "conditional probability" that covers it. This instance feels like, among all the minute details that the Twins must have considered about the return in the trade they were negotiating, they managed to discount the one big red flag that was waving: the centerpiece of their trade had recently been on the injured list with elbow soreness. Trading for 3 years of contractual control over a good starting pitcher looks like a lot less of a bargain if the odds are 50/50 that you'll lose 18 months of those years to diminished performance, surgery and recovery, and rehab stints in the minors. The trade looked bad the moment the rumors came out. I'm not against taking a risk, but it needed to be on an arm with bigger upside than Chris Paddack.
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