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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Is her statement merely an indirect way of saying, "hey! You're gonna use our intellectual property for your own palpable benefit, and not pay us?" Terms of Service "You agree not to reproduce, duplicate, copy, sell, trade, resell or exploit for any commercial purposes, any portion of the Service (including your Fangraphs I.D.), use of the Service, or access to the Service." (My emphasis added.) Of course, FG and BR license the data they use from various sources, including no doubt MLB itself.
  2. ashbury
    Either Jefferson Davis or Alfred E. Neuman would be my guesses.
  3. ashbury
    Spring games aren't about winning, so I can't imagine any tactical decisions are made about who the pitchers face and how many times. It's all about "getting the work in."
  4. ashbury
    He's been an effective but not lights-out reliever for a couple years now. At age 30-32 he might be a good risk for a three year $15M guaranteed contract, or some variant on that with options to raise or lower the risk/reward to both parties. If some other team wants to guarantee him $20M, I'm thinking the Twins will find someone else. Above-average pitching is not a commodity in oversupply, though, so maybe my offer is a little light in the present market, and if there were nothing but green flags from the on-field staff and the FO talent evaluators during his short stay with the Twins, I wouldn't pinch the last penny if he wants a little more.
  5. ashbury
    You didn't mention Twins farmhand Jon Olsen who started for the Dogs. Unfortunately he gave up 3 runs in his two innings, but Glendale roared back and got a 6-3 win. Francis Peguero also worked and had a scoreless fifth with a strikeout. Austin Martin singled in the seventh inning to drive in a run and then scored on a double, plus he got a walk earlier. Julien just had the one single mentioned earlier,and struck out 3 times. Alex Isola homered in the fourth. and also walked once What next?
  6. ashbury
    Martin grounds out. Julien singles. Batting .500. So far so good.
  7. ashbury
    I've been rooting for him since watching him last year in the Fall League, but sadly concur. His 2022 lefty-righty splits are off the charts absurd, with an impossible .286 OPS-against versus the lefties, and while a .677 OPS-against when facing right handed hitters isn't monstrously bad, add another .100 for when facing major leaguers and he'll be at best a mild liability. At least, that's my rule-of-thumb forecast. Add to that a rather bad walk-rate, and I can see why the FO was averse to calling him up despite a revolving door of other pitchers.
  8. ashbury
    Regarding the Boy Geniuses, Thad Levine turns 51 tomorrow. He still can't grow facial hair. I chalk up his sterling reputation to that.
  9. ashbury
    Only because we traded away our previous workhorse with 2 months remaining in that season, who wound up throwing 192 in aggregate. ? A healthy 2021 for Mahle would be very important data, IF in conjunction with a healthy 2022. Unfortunately, we were left with hoping our FO had guessed correctly about the shoulder woes preceding the trade. Events didn't bear them out. Newer data is almost always more important than older data, when you're trying to forecast performance and the two happen to be at odds.
  10. ashbury
    IMO the likelihood of injury was baked into the roster from the very way the roster was constructed. We had guys like Ober who spent time in 2021 on the injured list. We acquired more guys who had varying degrees of susceptibility to injury in 2021. Insert the Surprised Pikachu meme: we had injuries in 2022. I'm not claiming mine is a sophisticated form of Analytics for player health, but sometimes simplicity is a virtue. Injuries are a part of the game and will happen to every staff. But I want to see a conscious bias when the 2023 roster is constructed, toward reducing the injury risk. If inordinate injury then occurs anyway, I'll either begin to offer more sympathy than I do now, or else I'll call for yet another head trainer. ?
  11. ashbury
  12. ashbury
    tl;dnr summary: Following his TJS in 2017, Trevor was a workhorse reliever 2019-2021, with nary a trip to the Injured List according to his page on mlb.com. 2022 was a different story, with a 60-day IL stint May-July and then another 15-day stay in September. So I'd be leery. In a vacuum he could be a good gamble, but this Twins pitching staff needs to skew healthier for 2023, not riskier. I hope they have better analytics for pitcher health than the "next year is best predicted by the most recent season" rule of thumb that I use. "When healthy" should be banished from the FO's jargon.
  13. ashbury
    But but but.... if they do a long term contract, which is necessary to attract most difference-makers at any position, and then it doesn't work out, they won't have the wherewithal to go do another one. Better to just do nothing and sing the not-a-top-market blues.
  14. ashbury
    Of course. Who wouldn't? And the present Twins FO has tried twice with Royce Lewis and now Brooks Lee. Meanwhile, until that pans out (if ever), the choice is Correa or not, Bogaerts or not, et cetera, and not some other player under team control.
  15. ashbury
    The trade package for Pablo Lopez seems light from Miami's perspective. Nimmo might be the straw that stirs the drink, though. He won't be cheap but your salary guess seems close.
  16. ashbury
    To paraphrase Al Campanis, Calvin Griffith lacked the necessities to be a modern sports team owner.
  17. ashbury
    But forget the groan emoji or whatever. I need a way to donate the Likes bestowed on my puny offering, in deference to your truly epic groaner there.
  18. ashbury
    ???‍♂️ Puke, poop, facepalm. Take your pick, among the many that TD offers if you click that little smiley face in the edit GUI.
  19. ashbury
    Someone does. ? Baseball-reference.com on their Fielding page for catchers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml#all_players_players_advanced_fielding_c_fielding Sort on the team column for ease of comparison, and you'll see that Jeffers's ERA was more than half a run better than his teammate Rodriguez Gonzalez Sanchez. (The fine print: The last I ever looked at literature on Catcher ERA, the conclusion was that it's not a very reliable measure from one year to the next, and therefore not really a repeatable skill. To be clear, there is skill, it's just CERA doesn't seem to capture it reliably. Also, if there actually is any meaning to be had in this particular comparison, it may be more a negative reflection on Sanchez than praise for Jeffers, since the same page for 2021 had Sanchez worse than his teammate Higashioka. IMO such comparisons require a lot more care than I'm capable of.)
  20. ashbury
    And now he gets to be mentioned in the same breath with Willie Mays, forever. Nice outcome.
  21. ashbury
    That first player you named is nowhere near worth it. ? Let's go with Reynolds. He's an interesting comp to Murphy. 3 years of team control. Up the middle defense. Murphy got a Gold Glove in 2021, while I'm not sure Reynold's defense is as well regarded but a centerfielder isn't going to be a clown. (BTW speaking of not being a clown in CF I hope you enjoyed Chas McCormick's catch in the 9th last night, replay isn't ever going to do it justice compared to the drama of seeing it unfold in realtime.) Reynolds is an even more expensive trade option than Murphy, according to that trade simulator site. 59.9 to 51.3. About 16% higher. That's a whole additional good prospect more, like Josh Winder or Edouard Julien as the sweetener. Reynolds in the last two years has 256 starts in CF. Murphy has 220 starts at Catcher in that same span. About 16% difference. Both have 35 starts as DH (or DH and LF about equally in the case of Reynolds) in those two years. I think you're suggesting about an equal increment of offensive value for each of them, compared to their positional peers, based on your post a couple back, unless you've "moved off" of that too. So I'm not seeing a big "inflation" of value for the catcher that you alluded to earlier; two similar guys in some ways, with a 16% discount for fewer starts at their respective prime positions. I'm only guessing as to what your question is, at this point, though.
  22. ashbury
    Not less games. More games. Probably twice as many. You're overlooking the 3 years of team control for Murphy versus 1 year if you trade for Ohtani. 3x100 versus 150ish. If you trade prospect assets for Murphy, you have starting Catcher covered for 3 years. If you trade those assets for Ohtani then DH is covered but you need to work some kind of similar magic in years 2 and 3 only without those assets this time. Ohtani would be the "all-in for 2023" trade. Comparable in trade value, but not comparable in the purpose. We're not acquiring either, so it's really pretty moot.
  23. ashbury
    On further thought I don't see a team going for it, either. Let's say Correa is the Twins' preferred option. This arrangement leaves them in limbo for longer, and if Correa does eventually move on, it may be that the second and third option have already signed or been traded too. The return they get in trade may not be that high, since the acquiring team is a "sole source" and the Twins would have little leverage in negotiation; and if no trade happens, Correa is disgruntled all year. Look at it from the perspective of this mystery "other" team too. Do they go after Correa for, say, $200M plus having to give up something in trade? Or do they just simplify and sign Bogaerts or Turner for a similar sum and save themselves the prospect capital? This comes out as a lose-lose option.
  24. ashbury
    I don't disagree with any of the points here. And it was fine to use Ohtani as a parallel to Murphy, because both would cost an arm and a leg. Shortstop Cruz, ditto. I was pushing back on the notion that Murphy was an overpay versus Ohtani. 3 years versus 1, up-the-middle versus DH when he bats - just not a useful comp. (Ohtani as a pitcher makes him a unicorn for comparison purposes anyway.) Ohtani in 2022 would have improved our DH production somewhere around .100 OPS points compared to Arraez/Buxton/Miranda (Sanchez is just a brain fart in that role that I'm not even going to consider him). Murphy would have improved our catcher OPS by more than that, albeit for fewer games. You improve overall team OPS any way you can. Comparing Murphy's bat to an outfielder's is just not relevant; he would have improved our team OPS, pure and simple. Anyway, I'd love to have Murphy catching or Ohtani pitching and DHing, and it's not gonna happen, so there we are.
  25. ashbury
    My guess is that it comes down to technicalities that the Players Association might not look kindly upon. If Correa doesn't opt out by the specified date, he is obligated to play for the Twins in 2023 for the stated salary. The Twins verbally saying they will let him negotiate and then work out a sign-and-trade is just that, a verbal commitment, and might not be enforceable. I'm personally a stickler for having things in writing, and the paperwork I've ever signed is dwarfed in magnitude by the dollars being discussed here, so I can fully understand if Correa tells the team, "nice idea, but I can't go along, because while I trust you it sets a dangerous precedent for other players." Which might be a polite way of saying, "I can't trust this proposed process myself."
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