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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    You're saying he might learn to switch hit, for his next team? 😀
  2. ashbury
    Not surprised. While the dollar difference is minor in absolute terms, speaking of folks at the MLB level of course, it still seemed to me his agent had given him bad advice when the figures came out a few weeks ago. The inability to even split the difference (which teams often do when they think the player's submitted value is at least arguable), and then to lose in arbitration, would suggest to me that a change in representation is called for.
  3. ashbury
    Bauer has been given "second chances" over and over. I refreshed my memory on his Wikipedia page, and even when he does something nice like set up a charitable donation program, he feels compelled to include some jackassery about it. That's the word that keeps coming to mind, jackass, and from a distance maybe he seems cute and eccentric*, but I can imagine his act wearing thin in a clubhouse quickly. Hard pass, as they say. * Up until his legal troubles, which were not cute and beyond eccentric to vast numbers of people
  4. ashbury
    Or remember, one day later.
  5. ashbury
    Zack Weiss. How quickly we forget. 😀
  6. ashbury
    In the interest of snark* I would like to point out that Balazovic was drafted in 2016 and thus under the prior, Total System Failure, regime. Our current FO held onto him for longer than I might have expected.** * Just one of the many fine services I offer ** And no, I don't know of a real pattern of FalVine playing favorites with "their own" prospects. Which part of "snark" did you not understand?
  7. ashbury
  8. ashbury
    Yeah, I was about to say that "luck" is the operative word there. A guy puts up good stats based on a lower BABIP than his career norm, and next year he mysteriously reverts to form. Almost as if the magic pixie dust causing the ball to fly straight to fielders' gloves has a short shelf life and can't easily be replenished. Or, as you say, luck.
  9. ashbury
    No doubt there will be an actual/official article to come concerning our latest waiver claim. I had expected Bubba and Duarte to be DFA in favor of the newly signed Santana and Jackson. So that breakdown of the moves means that our FO prefers 31-year old minor league journeyman-with-control-problems Zack Weiss to Jordy Blaze. SMH.
  10. ashbury
    That's the Secret Sauce we've all been waiting to hear about!
  11. ashbury
    Not exactly sure what parallel you are drawing, but Willi wasn't a waiver-wire claim, he was signed as a free agent. Unless I'm forgetting, we never had to expose him to waivers after acquiring him.
  12. ashbury
    The Sport of the Future.™ Always has been, always will be. They've been telling me this* since I was a kid. * Outside the US, it's certainly a different story. And even in the US there is a following. The Tottenham winter scarf my son got me a few years ago for Christmas is a good conversation starter in crowds. Go Spurs, I guess.
  13. ashbury
    I'd be perfectly happy to buy into a mutual fund across all these MLB investments.
  14. ashbury
    Evaluation is evaluation. It's a continual and/or repeated process for each player, and for players collectively. I'm not even sure I'm willing to specify where the mis-evaluation was on Wisler, merely that in the end it was pretty much wasted effort for the team because they said goodbye when they didn't have to. His career ERA matches pretty closely with his FIP, and his times of success with regard to ERA have been in relatively smaller samples than in the other seasons when he was mediocre. For his career his Wins Above Average closely matches his Win Probability Added, namely a negative number. His one season with Minnesota ultimately didn't change his career arc.
  15. ashbury
    I was going to reply to the question you replied to, but you laid out a framework first so I'll go off of that. Strictly as an investment, you can't go wrong with most of these. Some are a little better than others. But all are properties that rich people have chosen to invest in, and (mostly) not share with the hoi polloi. So, if I'm offered, I'm in. Any financial success I've had has come from throwing in my lot with people wealthier than me. I saw a negative opinion for the Red Sox, above. Me, I would snap up that opportunity, much as you described for the Dodgers. Buy Quality. If there's a severe economic downturn, the Red Sox shares I hold will still find takers. That might be less true of Marlins and Rockies and A's.
  16. ashbury
    And then they released him. He met whatever expectations they could possibly have had, and then they said, "um, well, never mind. That guy we thought we could turn into something? Smoke and mirrors. Next?" I really lost confidence in them as having something special they could bottle and reuse.
  17. ashbury
    They've brought in a bunch of new names with possibly interesting stories. If I had more confidence in the FO's talent assessment, I'd be more excited. But names like Jorge Lopez, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, and Matt Wisler temper my enthusiasm for new names. I'm not saying our FO is bad at this. They're average; they don't have any special sauce compared to other FOs.
  18. ashbury
    To my knowledge there is only one MLB team you can directly buy stock in, the Braves. NASDAQ : BATRA. A quick look says that their stock has gone up approximately 3X in 8 years. That's an annualized 15% ROI give or take, if I did my math right. I would like to own stock in the Twins. No further research on my part needed. Why? Because the Pohalds aren't selling any. That's how I know it's a great investment.
  19. ashbury
    One look at their attendance over the years tells me that Tampa Bay is absolutely not the team I want my Twins to emulate. Tampa Bay is bad for the sport.
  20. ashbury
    I feel that way too, and have been referring to DeSclafani as yet another "when healthy" member of the roster. Loading up on those, when I play Out Of The Park in franchise mode, is almost always a recipe for failure. Good thing our FO isn't playing games. The only thing I would add to Stringer's breakdown of the upsides and downsides is this: in 2023 this pitcher spent time on the IL for both shoulder and elbow issues, either of which IMO could turn out to be chronic and increasingly problematic. Shoulders especially can be career-enders, and elbows are no picnic either. It's not like his downtime was for fluky things like trying to field a comebacker and winding up with a cracked patella. If I was asked to contribute my guesswork to FalVine's spreadsheet: 40% chance he contributes essentially nothing, 30% chance he pitches a few starts and then goes down, 20% chance he contributes meaningfully most of the season, and his 10% upside is we find ourselves a year from now wondering why we doubted him. If it comes together for him he could be a Game Three postseason starter. The value of that is high. Odds of that are... low. Two teams now this off-season have paid cash to another team to take him off their hands. That's sobering.
  21. ashbury
    Bubba and Duarte were recent waiver claims. I expect both to be exposed to waivers to make room for Santana and Jackson respectively.
  22. ashbury
    An eye for an eye, a batter for a batter. My guess would be Bubba.
  23. ashbury
    Underwhelmed.
  24. ashbury
    A natural career progression. I'm sure HR explained it all to you at Orientation.
  25. ashbury
    No fair. You invested more thought concerning these two players than I did, or ever would have.
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