ashbury

Not sure what "nothing to do with baseball" means, in regard to a baseball asset. Fortunately the rest of what you said makes sense to me. And every contract is an asset control move, when you come down to it. If the upside is $60M worth of value (that's a lot of WAR but it's faintly possible as the ceiling) and lower but still appreciable values are also in the mix, then it becomes nearly an "expectation value" kind of physics/economics computation - probability times all the different outcomes, added up. If that's above the $12M or so for a Paddack type of contract, then you offer it. Of course Mahle himself has to want this contract, and not want instead to "bet on himself" as the saying goes. Also, Paddack and Mahle are not very similar looking individuals, and the team might look at the two pitchers very differently when making such a decision. But, and Brian alluded to this just above, there is an additional cost: the value of a 40-man roster spot over not just this off-season but also the next one. Could that roster spot be used for something more valuable than the "expectation value" I just suggested be computed, minus the contract cost of that guarantee. Maybe the roster spot is better used by protecting an additional Rule-5 candidate of our own, or drafting one ourselves, as just an example. It's really complicated, in other words, and I'm sure the FO has very careful accounting practices that help them maintain the discipline to reach an answer they can be comfortable with. At the moment, lacking information on how all the parties look at this, it's kind of a toss-up to me. And then after all that, to circle back to your point about flipping the contract, that decision in turn comes down to whether they find the offer they receive to be better than just keeping him - assuming the trading partner sees value in Mahle, probably so would we.

i feel that way too. Still, it depends on the terms of an extension that would interest him. Does he want a guarantee that sets him up for life, or does he want to gamble? If Dobnak money gets it done, I consider it.

An extension might or might not be the right course, but what we gave up for him has no bearing. That's the Sunk Cost Fallacy in action. Apart from that, I know we're always hopeful that TJS has the guy back and productive in a year, but just going from memory it doesn't seem to work out that way. Rehab begins after a certain point and the player is throwing in earnest from the mound after a year or so, but that's not the same as being ready to win games like he used to. Maeken would be the current example on our roster for that. So if he works real hard, throwing for real at St Paul 14 months from now, maybe he's good to go for 2025. If I'm negotiating, I want a commitment to 2025-26 both, and at not very much money relative to free agents. His hopes of a big payday* are gone, whether the Twins are in the picture or not. Guaranteeing him millions of dollars should get the team something really significant in return. * relative to what he could have commanded on the open market before this happened

Disappointed to not learn your own rankings.

When I watch him play, he has what it takes to play the position, unlike say Sano who shied away from the hard smashes and also had trouble judging popups. Yes there is a problem currently with Miranda's arm; if it can't be fixed then that's a different story. I'm certainly no coach, but the mistakes he makes seem like matters of focus and concentration. I've said elsewhere that relying on DH as a fallback position is a big risk for any player's career. He'll need to hit a lot better to be an asset there (and maybe he's capable of stepping it up). Otherwise he'll need to step it up with the glove. But he's close with both. AAA is the right place for him now. I don't want him gumming up the process with the big club. I'm just saying I think he's still worth trying to get right.

Miranda shows too much potential, on defense at third as well as at the plate, to let this continue to fester for him. He was the right one to send to St Paul when Farmer was ready, and it's only regrettable that the move couldn't have happened sooner.

Bumpy Road, indeed. Getting nearly no-hit in multiple games has shaken my faith in either the talent level I thought was there, or the strategic approach being preached by the coaching staff that is undermining that talent.

Concur that 15 PA for Farmer is pretty strong evidence already. As for the caliber of pitching at AAA, there are always a few flamethrowers on their way up (or down), but when I go to games I see an awful lot of 88-MPH "fast"balls on the radar gun. Sometimes the entire game is a progression of finesse types slinging it up to the plate. AAA is often where career hopes (pitchers, batters, sometimes managers) go to die. Now that I think about it, though, I'd hate to be the first AAA pitcher last week who had to throw an inside pitch to Farmer. I'd shake off that catcher so, so hard, when the signal was "up and in." No! Just no! Let me practice my slider, low, away!

Even including the power hitting, stats like OPS+ put them below league average. It seems like an anomaly to actually manage a league-average rate of run scoring. Plus, we all know, and laugh, about their futility with the bases loaded. And yet... could clutch hitting be the explanation anyway? With bases empty, the Twins' collective OPS is a feeble .632. With anyone on base, it's .772. With runners in scoring position, it's a lofty .873. And yes, that includes bases loaded, which is only 35 out of the 301 plate appearances with a man at least on second (and yes, with bases loaded their OPS is a tragicomic .314). They haven't had enough base runners to really succeed, but it looks like they've bunched their hits and overachieved. Shall we give the leadership of Rocco some praise, for this team-wide display of strength of will? Hip-hip? Hooray?

It's possible there is a correlation. Kidding aside, it's a combination of factors of putridness. They are third-worst in strikeout percentage at 25.7%. When they do put the ball in play, their batting average (BABIP) at .268 is one tick away from being the worst in the majors. Not putting the ball in play enough, and not being effective when you do, can tend to shape your season. Weighing against this misery, as Stringer pointed out, when they do make contact, it's for extra bases. Their Isolated Power, basically slugging minus batting average, is a bit above MLB average, though not up there with the Rays. And their walk rate is slightly above average also. These factors help lift their derived stats like OPS that try to summarize overall offense. They are above average in line-drive percentage and hard-hit percentage - continually hitting the ball hard but right at somebody tends to even out, over the course of a season, leading to a better BABIP. The other thing I gleaned from the b-r.com advanced stats page is they are extremely pull-happy. Imagine a batting order filled with Brian Doziers, able to capitalize on pitchers who aren't "on" that particular day but otherwise eating out of the pitcher's hand. Many of us were concerned that the offense was a little light for a serious post-season run. I don't think there were many who predicted a MLB-worst BA though. If I were coach (ha!) I'd start with a more varied strategy, probably focusing on two-strike tactics.

Concur. I posted this elsewhere in a Mahle thread, but a week ago I watched the Reds in Oakland and they played Steer at first base, and even there he looked stiff and failed a couple of times to do what he intended. He probably has a major league bat but if you start profiling as a DH even that bar is very high, and unless he steps it up a lot in some dimension of his game he's not going to be a big loss to us.

Yes, but so far he's contributed about 1/8 of a season's worth of offense (Total Bases as just one measure).

When Castro came up he was the one on the bubble. I'm not sure he's done so much to increase his stock, as Miranda's has plummeted. If it's up to me I send Miranda down for some emergency remedial work on all facets of his game.

We had this problem under Terry Ryan and I had hoped we were past this. Too many players on the roster with the end of their evaluation reading, "and if all else fails, he can DH." There are only so many plate appearances for a DH during a season, whereas you need guys who can competently field.

At last check there have been 962 bases loaded situations in the majors this year, or about 32 per team. The Twins have had 33 such situations, so basically league average. Being average isn't what I'd call speaking well. And the league is batting .268 in those situations (better than the .247 overall) while we're at .154. I do not know how to speak well of any of this. I can pray that it's small sample size.

Bah. Losses will happen. I don't like for them to look bad doing it.

Yeah, in another post I picked 10 days more or less at random, to see if any of Jose/Willi/Donovan was separating himself recently from the others as a candidate to keep his job, but that's already slicing the data pretty thin and I didn't really want to cherry pick anything. Recency's not really the best way to decide anyway, and probably when Farmer's reactivated they'll go with Rocco's view on whom he would use the least if kept, and make a move based on that.

Okay, I'm sold after that bit of "fielding": Miranda to St Paul!

Um, okay, replaced by Farmer and ....?

3 home runs in the past 10 days. Maybe heating up after all.

Meanwhile, neither Miranda nor Castro makes the case this inning that they should stay when Farmer comes up, either.

He went 3-for-5 at AAA on Friday, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

I was hoping to see Donnie Barrels make a bid to keep his job when Farmer is reactivated. Not this inning, apparently.

A ball called a strike.