Brandon

I can't complain about Solano's 3 HR cause he is hitting doubles and his on base percentage is so high and He has never hit many HRs so that was known going into the season. .371 OBP coming into today's game. You are spot on with the rest of your comments. The only other complaint I have would be to see Taylor get some walks at a higher clip. or get his OBP over .300 for the season.

SWR and Dobnak are in AAA too somewhere. As is Enlow. Not much down there at this time for sure.

Gallo has his OPS back over .800 he has been on a little tear lately. He has been worth the signing but not the value signing we want. Gallo has been much better than the Correa signing. Though I’m not going to complain too much yet about the Correa signing. If Correa can get his batting average over .250-.260 this season he will be ok. His power numbers are consistent with past seasons. The Platinum Glove season Correa had seems to be an outlier season. He is good on defense and being above average for most of his six seasons is fine by me at SS. You are spot on about Vazquez. I hope he starts hitting soon. He doesn’t need to hit a ton but a .270 average with some doubles and occasional HR would help on offense. really the only negative from the 3 free agents above is their batting averages are all so far below what they should be and with others with a lower then expected batting average our offense is suffering because of this.

I posted this point in a blog post this morning among other comparisons in trying to show that maybe batting average is more important then the number crunchers thought. also 2019 the Twins edged the Yankees for all time HRs hit in a season by a team.

Solano has a .370 OBP while Arreaz had a .375 OBP for us last season. I think Solano has done a heck of a job replacing Arreaz bat from last year to this year and he costa less too. Pablo Lopez is 3rd in the American League in Strikeouts and is on pace to throw around 200 innings this year and he signed a 4 year extension. This trade is a win win for all involved. Why are posters bringing up the performance of others or the offense as a whole in their logic. It doesn’t work when you do a proper evaluation of what we got vs what we gave up. Saying the Marlins got more overall value is fine but arguable. We have a solid rotation heading into next season after going into this one with 3 free agents. Lopez Ryan Ober Varland Paddack while we can definitely use 1 more starter, we can atleast run this rotation out next year and be competitive with it. On offense Killeroff was going to be the 1B when healthy so where would you play Arraez? I like Arraez but he was going to get squeezed here.

I was looking at individual players on the team when I noticed a trend. Correa who is having a terrible year by our standards is actually walking and hitting the same power numbers as years past. but his batting average is way down. last season he hit .291 This year he is at .217 and his average has been climbing. If Correa was hitting closer to his career norms, say .270 what would his OPS be? It would be over .800 So I looked at the next punching bag. Gallo. He is also having a good walk rate and extra base hit rate for the season but he was successful with a .230 batting average. He just got his average up to .191 so he still needs to get his average up 35-40 points. What would that do to his OPS? It would be over .850 Lets keep going. Kepler has a higher ISO slg % then batting average. in his best season Kepler hit .252. If he was hitting closer to that say .240 his OPS would be close to .800 If you look at the batting average of those who are having good years on the team. over 100 OPS+ only Buxton and Gallo have below a .250 batting average. Now lets compare to other teams. The Yankees have the most similar lineup to us. They have a similar team batting average, similar power, and similar walk rate. We are 10th in the league in scoring they are 11th. so obviously this type of lineup construction doesn't work. not here or in New York. Who are the top 2 offenses. the teams with the top 2 team batting averages. The Rangers and Rays. I have more boring data that continues to show this over and over. Maybe getting base hits is more important to scoring runs than originally thought.

I gotta disagree with this article. 1. Solano has been a decent enough replacement for Arreaz. A .370 OBP is pretty good. He hits doubles. And he has decent enough bat control. Pablo Lopez who we got in the trade is third in strikeouts in the AL and is a solid pitcher who signed an extension bringing some long term stability to the rotation. the offensive problems for this club stems from having very few 100+ OPS hitters in the starting lineup. Miranda got off to a horrendous start and was demoted. Kepler gets close the backtracks and gets close then backtracks. Correa and Buxton are slumping Gordon slumped before getting hurt Larnarch hasn’t quite taken off either Valazquez hasn’t hit as well as advertised so far in his first season here. Taylor has been ok as a hitter in some aspects but his OBP is way too low. Now on the other side Lewis and Killeroff have made their way into the lineup and have produced. Wallner is trying to get here. Jeffers has hit in a back up role and should start getting more playing time. and we are left hoping that Buxton and Correa will break out and hit. That will go a long way in helping posters hear more properly evaluate the Arreaz trade. That deal has been more win/ win with Miami really winning at this point and so does our rotation.

I don’t think the Arreaz trade is as bad as it’s been talked about here. Pablo Lopez haz pitched solid and signed an extension. What makes the Arreaz trade look so bad is that our offense has cratered while Arreaz has taken off. But Solano has been a poor man’s Arreaz with over .370 OBP. So his main skill set has mostly been replaced by a capable player. The bigger problem is how bad the rest of the offense has been.

It doesn’t have to be the rest of the season. Obviously Gallo is not a full time CF but this lineup is designed by using our best players in a spot we can maximize the offensive contributions we have been getting. The lineup will change from day to day but using a lineup like this for a few weeks may see us scoring more and that is the point. Jump starting the offense into consistency and constant scoring. also I believe Correa will hit and move up in the lineup. and I wanted to get a discussion about this as it feels like we have the pieces for a good offense but they are not being deployed optimally.

Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals. But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats. That means they are above average hitting. And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins. Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stats. for this I am using the following for consideration. OPS+ (the main stat) Average, BB, XBH per 10, BB per 10 First let's sort through our starting 9 then figure out a proper batting order. C Ryan Jeffers is the better hitter between him and Vazquez with an .804 OPS and 124 OPS+ 1B Solano is hitting .773 OPS with a 116 OPS + He probably should be our leadoff hitter with that On Base Percentage of his .379 2B Edouard Julien .783 OPS and 116 OPS + he is even with 12 XBH and 13 BB in 127 AB and he has a solid .341 OBP 3B Lewis has a .863 OPS and 137 OPS+ he hits with a high average and decent HRs. however only 3 BB and 6 XBH in 81 AB so not patient and not quite at the 1 XBH per 10 AB you want to see but kinda small sample size. SS Kyle Farmer and Correa are pretty interchangeable here right now. Correa has more HRs and Farmer the higher OBP though not by too much. Correa is 91 OPS+ but has 28 XBH and 29 BB in 268 AB so he has a slight positive number in these 2 categories which means he just needs to get his batting average up to be a better contributer. OF Killeroff in LF with a .763 OPS and 113 OPS+ with a .366 OBP he could hit 2nd since he isnt reaching full power potential yet. OF Gallo in CF three true outcome player. over 60% of his plate appearances end in a HR, BB, or Strike out. with a .768 OPS and .110 OPS+ He still starts. OF Rf is a toss up of Larnarch, Kepler, or Castro. all are within a few points of each other in OPS Castro has more speed and Kepler has been great with the glove. OR we could give Walner a chance with his 1.099 OPS and 206 OPS+ while I doubt he would stay hitting at that pace he could hit .750 OPS and be better then the trio in front of him. DH Buxton and Polanco are interchangeable as long as Buxton is somewhat hurt. they both have a 103 and 102 OPS+ at this point. Though when healthy Buxton can hit. so lets configure a lineup from this and see what we think. Clearly this lineup is a defensive downgrade but much better hitting lineup. RHB 1b Solano 116 OPS+ LHB 2B Julien 116 OPS + RHB 3B Lewis 137 OPS + LHB LF Killeroff 113 OPS + RHB DH Buxton 103 OPS + LHB CF Gallo 110 OPS + RHB SS Correa 91 OPS + LHB RF Wallner 206 OPS + (SSS) RHB C Jeffers 124 OPS+ This lineup breaks up the RHB and LHB evenly throughout the lineup. it also gives us a lineup with everyone but Correa over 100 OPS +. it puts the high on base percentage guys at the top of the lineup. power is in the 5-8 lineup slots, and Jeffers has a great on base percentage at this point which helps serve as a line up catalyst at the bottom of the lineup. I left Correa in to help keep defense as good as possible. Taylor is ready to be deployed into CF for defense upgrade when needed. How would you try to maximize our offense with what we have.

I agree. I’m just going along with the premise of acquiring Goldschmidt and what it would cost to get him.

Goldschmidt is an MVP caliber player. You have to give to get. St Louis is in the same position as the Twins with their pitching. They have 4 or 5 starters eligible for free agency and little in the minors that’s ready. So if they trade their MVP. You can bet they want controllable starting pitchers.

I would have added them but we had Ron Davis after them and he was awful. In fact so bad the the Twins have always prioritized having a strong closer for the end of the game.

Duran doesn’t have the gaudy save totals which is a large part of the reason he doesn’t get as noticed as past closers. Nick you left out Reardon and Aguilera in talking about past great closers for the Twins. Since 1987 we have had a great closer. I guess what I’m saying here is Ron Davis so scarred Management with his closing ability that we continue to enjoy a prioritized great closer on a consistent basis. Let us recognize the goodness that came from Ron’s example of a career of why good relief pitching is important.

What would it take to trade for him? They desperately need controllable starting pitching so Ober and Woods-Richardson and Julien and Marco Raya or David Festa could work if Saint Louis is ok with those pitchers. But that is what it would take to get him. Also Saint Louis is playing better. so unless we trade them controllable starting pitching I doubt they would be interested.

I’m going to argue the opposite here. If his defense is as advertised then he has been exactly what he is supposed to be at this point. He is slumping so you can argue to give Larnarch more playing time while he works through his slump. But Gallo still has 20 XBH in 167 AB for a +3. Larnarch has 13 XBH in 152 AB for a -2. (1 XBH per 10 AB = 0. In case you are wondering). The same stat holds for walk rates too. Gallo has 27 BB in 167 AB for a + 10 and Larnarch has 23 in 152 for a + 8. Both are doing well here. Gallo is the better defender. He still needs to hit .220 to be valuable offensively and he isn’t. Larnarch hasn’t run away with the job yet either as he would be the starter now if he was hitting .110-.120 OPS points higher. The problem is consistency. Gallo has a similar OPS to Solano but Solano has been consistent. So while arguing for less playing time for Gallo is fair, his OPS is still in an acceptable range overall. And if his defense is solid he still has value. But he does need to break out of his current slump and soon.

Lopex has solid numbers across the board. Looking at them I wonder how he gives up so many runs? Does he just implode when a runner gets on base? but with the extension the Twins may not win the trade but will come out fine.

Also it would be nice to see a break out from a first rounder. Our record there is less than desirable. But I also saw where we have most of our 1rst round picks are later in the round. This year we pick 5th so that will be nice to see how that adds to our record. I hope Larnarch and Walner get some opportunities and success to get their record in the first round some credibility. and I am going to say the first and second pick with Lewis and Lee are fine for now. Though that is subject to changel. Lewis struggled when he was picked.

Last year we were a good team until injuries kicked in and tanked us the last month. we were in first place going into September last year. Sony Gray wasn't the problem. We are in first now with a large thanks to Grays performance as he is leading the staff. I also think other starters have benefited from having him around. how does that fit into the calculus? We have a great rotation this year. I hope we can resign Gray. if we can give him a qualified offer this offseason so we get a draft pick or get him on a 1 year deal that would be great. 2 years of what we get from Gray now is a great value and I am glad we made the trade and I am a Petty fan. If we get a third season or draft pick then even better and I think that tilts this in our favor.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/twins-sign-dallas-keuchel.html I think this is a show of good faith for Scott Boras as we seem to sign more and more of his clients.

I think a solid reliever is his floor. He still has a high mid nineties fastball. While it may take a few more years to fully develop he could be a number 3-5 starter if I had to guess with improved control, a better slider and serviceable/ show me change up.

I could see the Twins calling Walner up and giving him some opportunities soon. He has earned it. But I think the Twins are more likely to roll with what they have because they have multiple moving parts that can be potential difference makers. Walner, Garlick in the OF. Lewis is now the 3B and he is doing a great job offensively last I saw. I think Correa is starting to get out of his early season slump. But Kepler and Gallo need to step it up if they want to keep their jobs is my thought., Larnarch also deserves playing time. I can see a scenario where the Twins aquire a hitter to play 1B or DH and move Killeroff to the OF and demote Larnarch or trade Kepler to improve the Offense. but other than that I really dont see the Twins doing anything. I agree with Reptevia that the Twins will target bullpen arms.

Buxton was only to DH the first half of this season I thought. His knee is healing and he should be back out in CF soon. I get that Taylor in CF is working out just fine. So maybe a 30-50% time for Buxton and the rest for Taylor after the All Star break and then back in CF next year. That is what I thought the aTwins management was planned. If Buxton is a full time DH from now on is a huge disappointment.

I can see a contract as high as 3 the first year and 12 for year 2 of a 2 year deal. With incentives to allow him to make it to 17 million. That would or should be the high point on a 2 year extension. A third season would have to guarantee 14 / 15 million or so. That’s a 3 year 30 million contract with incentives to push the value up to say 34 million. Because of the shoulder injury before the tommy John surgery I would just pass and move on. You are taking on too many risks in this scenario.

If we are talking about next year and beyond then next year Buxton should be back in CF. Atleast half time. I understand his move is because we traded for Taylor and Buxton”s knee. But next year his knee should be better and Taylor is a free agent. With Kepler, Gallo and possibly Polanco coming off the books The Twins will have the money to extend Gray if the want. Also I think the Twins will make a push to resign one of those OF probably Taylor. He can be a platoon CF and back up LF and RF. 1B Killeroff, 2B Polanco SS Correa, 3B Lewis and Lee will be getting opportunities to come up next year and be full time 2B the following season. You only want so many rookies starting at a time if you are planning on contending. Lee can get some opportunities at DH too as can Wallner, and Julien if they are not in the OF.