Brandon

Or maybe the shoulder injury was the problem.

Um, the Twins in all fairness don’t need to spend money this offseason. Sure they could be lazy and sign someone but why? We only need 1 year of a starting pitcher of good quality and then the rotation is pretty close to being set the rest of the decade. We may need a back up player or two. Those don’t cost much and maybe sign a scrub reliever to compete for that last bullpen job. You mentioned in the post it’s mall about the money yet you are the one demanding more of it. Honestly it’s not really needed this offseason. What is needed is one more starting pitcher of quality and maybe a 1B or DH or back up CF which we already have 3 internal ones. I don’t know. I would think we needed extra money to keep Gray. But since he’s gone that point is moot and we are free to find other low cost methods to find another starter. Instead of focusing on money, let’s focus on making sure Falvine gets us what is needed for the team to take the next step….

This offseason there is little heavy lifting to do to improve our team. The main move needed is to find a starting pitcher who can come somewhat close to replacing what Sonny Gray provided the Twins last season. beyond that we are looking for a backup CF and keep in mind we have several available in-house options too like Castro, Gordon, and Austin Martin. and either an upgrade at 1B or someone who can add to it. Keep in mind we have a supposedly now healthy Killeroff and Miranda who both dealt with injuries last year. And if we want to get really nitpicky, we can look to sign a castoff reliever who we think we can turn around here like so many others. Also, I wonder if the Twins can sign DeLeon back to a 2-year minor-league contract so he can be a 2-time cast off turn around project when he recovers from Tommy John again. So that should constitute our offseason in a nutshell. So why should we be cool with the offseason so far? I mean we lost 2 good starting pitchers and a reliever too. We did gain an extra draft pick out of the deal. So, there is that. Maybe it's because Falvine signed Paddack to that 3-year extension for just over 12 million while he was injured and also note that during the last 2 seasons, they actually acquired too many starting pitchers. Creating a logjam that was fixed by 2 of them going on the disabled list for most of last year. Both Paddack and Mahle missed most of the season, yet we still had 5 good starters all season long. and looking forward in 2024 we have: 2024 Starting Pitchers and depth: 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Paddack 5. Varland 6+. Festa, SWR, and Dobnak and maybe Canterino though I expect him in the pen. So, if we want to be like last season, we want to get one more major-league starter who can push most of the rotation down a peg to give the rotation lots of depth and talent going into next season. Here is where things get really fun. all 5 of these starters are under contract or control for extended time. Paddack can't be a free agent until 2026 and Ryan, Ober, and Lopez in 2028 offseason. Varland is 2030. but wait there is more. Next offseason our depth is expected to grow internally exponentially as many pitchers will be closer to being ready for the 2025 season. This gives us lots of depth to even be able to trade from except with the rotation depth locked in and the position player side looks pretty good too. we may only be able to trade for more prospects to cover as this new version of the team gets more expensive. 2025 starting rotation and depth 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Paddack 5. Varland 6+ Festa, SWR, Lewis, Raya, (CJ Culpepper and Zabby Mathews should be ready by mid 2025) Preliepp could surprise and be ready by mid 2025 too. 2026 Rotation and starting depth. 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Varland 5. finally someone from all that depth makes it up to the rotation. and also the 2027 rotation ....... (this may sound kinda familiar)... 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Ober 4. Varland 5. finally someone from all that depth makes it up to the rotation. And while I do expect injury and trades to change things. That is why I list multiple pitchers for the 6th+ spot in the rotation. The rotation looks pretty well set for now and in the future. for now, to really give us depth, we just need to get a starting pitcher for 1 season while all of those other pitchers develop and pitchers like Varland, SWR and Festa start to get more time and experience in the show to be fully prepared to move in. On the position player side of things looks similar too with so few positions needing players for a while. Expect many boring offseason ahead wondering which bench/ minor league and scrub bullpen signings we have to help raise the floor on the last spot or two on the bench or bullpen.

Winder and Alcala are the likeliest to replace Pagan. It will be a combo as replacing a rubber armed reliever will come from multiple places. I believe the Twins will sign a reliever or two to raise the floor in competition for the jobs and if we get another starter then Varland would slot up there with Jax I think.

We still need solid innings coverage to replace the innings lost. No one should be expecting to replace the 2nd best pitcher in the league with the same level of production. But if we can find a pitcher who gets a low to mid 3.50 ERA then we can be competitive and more improvements can come from other places. We have a nice chunk of innings replaced already. But if we can find a starter who can get us atleast 150 more. We should be alright.

The name not mentioned for starts next year is Dobnak. I can see him get called up for a few soot starts throughout the season I put the over/ under for him at 4 starts. He pitched a lot of innings and had a lot of strikeouts too. (His ERA not so good). But he is also a pitcher we can add to the roster and DFA the next day and send him back to AAA ….. I put the pecking order as SWR 6th starter Dobnak 7th Festa 8th Pierson Oh 9th maybe tied with Lewis.

The Marlins resigned Smeltzer to a minor league deal to help with their pitching depth. Maybe they do plan to trade a starter. I see one of Lee or Julien in a trade for a starter. We keep Polanco for another year while Lee develops in AAA and makes his debut later in the season. Maybe a deal of Julien, Larnarch and Festa for a Starting Pitcher who is good. Or atleast it’s the start of a good trade package.

We got one player this way once upon a time. Brian Buscher from the Giants. Not a half bad pick either. not a great player but ok back up. Brian Buscher Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

and with the upcoming soto trade

As far as our winter moves are concerned. I am just watching for our starting pitcher acquisition. That will be the big move. from that we may trade a salary, the other moves like minor league offers for relievers and bench players maybe we sign someone to a legit 2 million deal to be a back up but the rest of the moves will be minor.

Does this mean the Twins have 4 of the top 100 picks in the next draft?

I think the Marlins approa The Twins about who they were going to pick to help them plan their move and I bet Terry Ryan asked them about a trade to pay their cost of the rule 5 pick so he could go back to the Pohlads and tell them how he got it done for free.

I just don’t see them trading him unless they see issues with his ability to get on base moving forward. He did get HBP 20 times. What’s his BABIP? To me if Tampa has him as available it’s likely to gage his worth to other teams. Is his defense bad? He would be good at first base for us though and DH for some days and backing 3B. But again why would the Rays trade him unless you overpay due to lack of options in free agency? If we are going to replace WAR through a bat we should see if we can get JD Martinez to DH and be a part time 1B. He will not cost much more than Polanco and if we are trading him it opens a door. Though our focus should be on finding another effective starting pitcher. If we can get one that is low cost then …..

The Twins picked 1rst and Miami 2nd so the Twins picked the player Miami wanted and Miami picked the player the Twins wanted and they made the trade. Miami kicked in the 50k cost of the rule 5 pick as well making Johan Santana totally free.

You could probably put Mack in number 3. He was pivotal to a World Series championship. And if not for the baseball strike he might have remained a Twin a little longer and got more WAR. And then leave 4 and 5 blank.

So would Jared Camp be ranked since his value to the Twins was that he was used to acquire Johan Santana and 50k making that rule 5 pick free and the return on that trade was so high.

Or the Twins could trade for the pitcher Marco Gonzalez who is due to make 12 million next season with a 15 million 2025 option and the cash the Mariners are including or more say 5-6 million so the cost of Gonzalez is only 6-7 million next season and the Twins can trade him, decline the option or exercise the option and keep him for 2025. and Gonzalez is a lefty. He has a track record or being a solid #3 starter (basically in the same area as Ryan). This sounds more like where the Twins would be interested here. The cost to acquire Gonzalez will be less in prospects too. What would really be cool is if we included Vazquez in the trade and received Arnaud in the deal. Arnaud is due to make 2 million less and has an 8 million option so that may be moot as that is way more value for the Twins thus bigger prospects or less cash back. Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales - MLB Trade Rumors

Its a start.

As far as position players go the core of Correa, Buxton, and Lewis can definitely carry the team if they are all healthy and playing in peak form. That is a really big if. That being said the potential is there. The Twins even have a nice supporting cast similar to the Braves but without the team friendly extensions (hint front office.... Hint) of Wallner, Jeffers, Killeroff, Polanco, Kepler, and Julien. On the pitching side we have a core of Lopez and Duran with a nice supporting cast of Ryan, Ober, and maybe / likely Paddack (health pending) and a bullpen support cast of Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, and possibly Varland if in the pen and the jury will be out on Funderburk, Alcala, and Winder (Winder did seem to settle in down the stretch run) So yes, we have the core for a really good team. As long as there is no real regression or too many injuries. That is why I think the key to the offseason is to find a 2-3 starter, a 6th/7th starter maybe a bullpen arm and depth around the diamond. nothing too major outside the one rotation arm. This is why I am not too concerned about the payroll drop especially now that resigning Gray is no longer an option. what we need shouldn't cost too much.

The point was we already have most of what we lost in house already. So instead of replacing 350 innings from Gray Maeda and Pagan to maybe needing 150 innings from an outside source. I didn’t say it was easy or we could just that is what is likely needed to replace what we lost. These loses were planned as last year the three made under 21 million. Next year the 3 will make 47 million. That’s a big jump for our payroll so good for Falvey and Levine for have contingencies in place in advance of these loses. And the contingencies cost 2.535 million and league minimum. I’m going to trust that there is a good chance we find that pitcher as long as we are not to handcuffed by finances to acquire the pitcher needed.

I think I said this in a different post but Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA. Put Varland in the pen / 6th or 7th starter and watch him get 5-8 starts with 40-50 relief appearances and 90-110 innings at a low 3. ERA and If you think Caneterino can step in. He will need some time in the minors after the injury maybe by the All Star break we get 30-35 innings of 2.5 - 3.25 ERA we now have 220-265 of the 325 innings replaced internally. Alcala could step up and a full season of Brock and Theilbar gets us closer yet. We should still try to find another starter who can provide 100-130 maybe 150-160 innings of low 3 ERA as well so we have extra insurance in case of injuries.

30 million per WAR is not too bad. There are much worse contracts out there. Free Agent contracts are typically solid at 10 million per WAR and a value when a team gets more WAR than that. At lease Vazquez is good defensively. same with Correa. Most of Correa's slide in value is in batting average. the rest of his numbers were similar to past numbers. Buxton was injured so lets see what happens next season now that he is likely to be healthy. Dobnak was a head scratcher to me. I think they planned on him being a bullpen / 6th man type of pitcher and he could be that 6th/ 7th starter next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 5 starts for Minnesota next year or several weeks in the pen or both. On another note. These contracts are not Heyward bad or Phill Hughes extension or Ricky Nolasco contract bad.

Here is another thought son the subject. Paddack is likely to replace and pitch better than Maeda in 100-120 innings next year. Put Varland in the pen and as an emergency starter and he pitches 70-90 innings of under 3.00 ERA and you now have about 180 innings of the 288 innings of Maeda and Gray already replaced internally. We just need to replace another 100-120 innings at an ERA of just over 3.00 and we likely come out ahead and at a much lower cost. Paddack 2.535 million and Varland under 750 k and ? Vs 47 million for the three mentioned earlier. Surely we can replace this last innings at a reasonable price.

The pen needs very little at this point. A free agent depth signing or reclamation project maybe two if Varland is in the rotation. Would Raya be an option at some point next season? He is only pitching 3-4 innings a start.

Last season Gray, Maeda and Pagan cost the Twins close to 21 million. Next season they would cost over 47 million. We can get an Ohtani with that kind of money. But I think that is why the Twins have decided to move on.