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When we were initially having the discussion on whether or not to trade Dozier, it mostly revolved around if it was better to trade him, or wait and give him a qualifying offer this offseason so the Twins could get the draft pick compensation that would come if Dozier signed elsewhere. However, at this point it is growing ever more unlikely that the Twins would even give Dozier a qualifying offer. While many would argue that bringing back Dozier on a one-year deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, they may very well be able to do so even without the qualifying offer, except on a much cheaper contract, if that is something the Twins wish to do.
This points all signs in the direction of the Twins trading Dozier as the obvious move to make right now. However, as the days progress the options for where the Twins could send Dozier seem to be dwindling.
From the get-go, the Milwaukee Brewers seemed like the team that was most interested in trading for Brian Dozier. They had obvious needs at both middle-infield positions and were looking to fill them before the trade deadline. However, the Brewers appear to have found their solution for second base by moving Travis Shaw over there after the addition of Mike Moustakas. It will be interesting to see how that works out, as Shaw never even played second base as a minor leaguer. Either way, it appears to be the solution the Brewers are going with, which takes them out of the Brian Dozier sweepstakes.
The other team that was favored as a potential landing spot for Dozier was the Boston Red Sox. With Dustin Pedroia shelved nearly all season with an injury, the Red Sox have been trotting out Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt to play second base. The results have been less than desirable, as they have received a WAR of 0.1 (Fangraphs) from the position this year. With that being the case, Dozier to the Red Sox still makes the most sense. However, with the trade deadline less than 24 hours away, the rumors of the Red Sox interest in Dozier have become almost nonexistent.
There have been two other teams that have shown some interest in Brian Dozier of late, and they are the San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians. I wrote about why I thought the Giants would be interested in Dozier a couple of weeks ago. However, with Joe Panik currently on a rehab stint and the Giants falling a little further back in the playoff push (6.5 GB in division and 6.0 GB in wild card entering Monday) they might not be as incentivized to trade for Dozier as they previously were.
From the Cleveland Indians perspective, I don’t see how much they would have to gain by adding Dozier. I don’t think the inter-division aspect will prevent it from happening as we have already seen teams show they are no longer afraid to make trades with their rivals, especially for rental players. Logically, Dozier isn’t much of an upgrade over a declining Jason Kipnis as they both have a 1.1 WAR (Fangraphs) so far this season. Dozier could potentially bring a platoon split with Kipnis being a lefty and Dozier being a righty, but both players have actually been better against left-handed pitching this season.
Another factor at play is how Dozier has continued to struggle, even after it looked like he turned the corner leading into the All-Star break. In the week and a half since the break, Dozier has a slash line of just .175/.227/.225 with just two extra-base hits (20 wRC+). Overall on the season, Dozier has a slash line of .224/.306/.404 and 16 home runs (91 wRC+).
I still think that something should get done before 3 PM CST tomorrow, but if they do I wouldn’t expect that great of a return given that the market for Dozier doesn’t appear to be all that bright.
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