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Roller Coaster Career
Gibson’s best season by most statistical accolades was the 2015 campaign. In his age-27 season, Gibson posted a 3.84 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Minnesota was a surprise second-place finisher in the AL Central that season and Gibson played a large role in the club’s improvement. In fact, Twins Daily named him the team’s 2015 Pitcher of the Year.
Even looking at his best season, Gibson has never been built to be a frontline starter and there have been some rough moments over the last two seasons. He struggled out of the gate last season with an 8.20 ERA in his first six starts. Opponents were hitting .342/.419/.579 against him and the Twins decided to send him to Rochester. It had to be a low point for Mr. Gibson.
After making two starts in the minors, Gibson was recalled and posted a 4.44 ERA over his last 131 2/3 innings. In September alone, he went 4-0 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Gibson also posted a 31-to-8 strikeout to walk ratio over those final 35 2/3 innings.
Flipping the Switch
Gibson seems to have built off of the positive end to his 2017. According to MLB.com’s Baseball Savant, hitters are barreling up the ball against Gibson less frequently this year. Last year, batters had a 6.9% barrel percentage and they’ve posted a 5.9% barrel percentage against him since 2015. This year his barrel percentage is down to 5%. He currently ranks as the 22nd best pitcher when it comes to barrels per plate appearance. Less frequent barreling of the ball has also helped other areas of his pitching.
His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are currently sitting at all-time lows. For his career, Gibson had allowed a .269 XBA and a .426 XSLG. Through his first 650 pitches this season, he has limited batters to a .232 XBA and a .375 XSLG. One of the biggest reasons for the switch has been Gibson’s ability to miss bats this season.
https://twitter.com/darenw/status/990604008095182851
When this tweet was circling the internet last week, it opened plenty of eyes. Even in Gibson’s most dominating years in the minors, he wasn’t getting swings and misses like he is in 2018. His strikeouts per nine rate is over 10.0 for the first time at the big league level. He’s been keeping the ball down and making it tough for hitters to make consistent contact.
https://twitter.com/NoDakTwinsFan/status/993583678864445442
Looking Long-Term
The new and improved Gibson has been a bonus this year but other younger pitchers have entered the Twins’ long term plans with the potential to be frontline starters. Jose Berrios has shown tremendous ability this season. Top prospect Fernando Romero was just called up and Stephen Gonsalves has been dominating Triple-A. Minnesota doesn’t need Gibson to be the team’s best pitcher but he is showing plenty of value so far this season. Consistently sticking in the role of a number three or four starter would be a positive over what Twins Territory saw last year with Gibson.
There have been other pitchers who took time to develop at the big league level. Gibson might be figuring out the best ways of attacking hitters with the pitches he has to offer. As a savvier veteran, Gibson might be reaching his full potential.
Playoff teams need more than a top-of-the-rotation ace pitcher. Other pitchers need to step up and fill in those other spots. Gibson has been much more than a fill-in this season.
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