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    Week in Review: DEFCON 1


    Nick Nelson

    There's still time left for Minnesota to salvage this wayward campaign, but here in mid-June we're approaching a point of no return if the losses don't quit piling up.

    Accordingly, the Twins set into motion last week a series of moves aimed at saving their season. These included activating Joe Mauer from the disabled list, lining up Byron Buxton for a rehab stint, sliding Brian Dozier to a very unfamiliar lineup spot, and – most drastically – shipping Miguel Sano to Ft. Myers for a full-on professional and personal reboot.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today

    Twins Video

    Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/11 through Sun, 6/17

    ***

    Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 31-37)

    Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: -8)

    Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.0 GB)

    HIGHLIGHTS

    Heading into the series opener against Minnesota on Friday, Corey Kluber was hot as could be, with a 5-0 record and 1.09 ERA in his past six starts.

    The first man to step into the box against him was Mauer, thankfully back after losing a month to a scary recurrence of concussion symptoms.

    Second was Eddie Rosario, who jumped on the first pitch he saw and launched it over the fence. It proved to be the tone-setter in a big game for the offense, which scored more runs against Kluber (4) than any other opponent has this year, while also becoming the first to send Klubot to the showers before reaching the sixth inning.

    Rosario followed up on Saturday with a four-hit game, which included his 16th home run. He finished the week as the 12th-best hitter in the majors by OPS.

    One spot behind him was Eduardo "Double or Nothing" Escobar, who tallied three two-baggers on Sunday but failed to score a single time thanks to the Nos. 4 and 5 hitters going 0-for-7. Escobar has collected an incredible 30 doubles through the team's first 68 games, putting him in rare territory:

    https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/1008423214689800196

    He went 10-for-23 (.435) last week while driving in six runs in six games. Escobar's inability to cross the plate on Sunday epitomizes a flabbergasting trend: he leads the majors in extra-base hits, but ranks 68th – SIXTY-EIGHTH – in runs scored. The guy they call "Mighty Mouse" is doing everything he can to power this offense, and being let down tremendously by his teammates. But hey, let's stick to the highlights for now.

    Kyle Gibson provided his own. On a rare night where he didn't have much on his pitches, Gibby still motored through seven innings in Cleveland, allowing just one run on three hits in a victorious effort. He issued four walks, induced only seven swinging strikes, and tied a season-low with three strikeouts, but Gibson still came through. He has allowed more than three runs only once in his past nine starts, despite completing five or more innings in all of them.

    It might sound like hyperbole, but Gibson has legitimately been one of the AL's best pitchers, ranking among the top 20 starters in WAR while consistently giving his team a very good chance. (Of course, he's earned only two "wins," speaking to the offense's lackluster contributions, but again, we're covering highlights here.)

    Others in that category last week included Trevor Hildenberger, who delivered two scoreless outings and has quietly been lights-out in his past 20 appearances (1.14 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .188 OBA). Lance Lynn logged his fifth straight quality start, although it ended in ugly fashion.

    And we've gotta give some props to Matt Magill, the rarely-used last man in the bullpen who continues to step up when called upon. After Fernando Romero's short start on Saturday, Magill tossed three hitless innings to help seal a W that was in question before he entered.

    Magill has pitched only three times in the past three weeks, throwing three or more innings in each appearance and allowing zero runs on one hit. As a low-leverage long man, he ranks first among Twins relievers – and third among all pitchers, after Gibson and Jose Berrios – in Win Probability Added.

    LOWLIGHTS

    That Magill leads the bullpen in WPA, and Escobar has been left standing on base approximately one billion times, both speak to the lack of execution we have seen from this team, time and time again.

    The trend carried on this week. Minnesota notched a big victory to open the series in Detroit and then laid down for two lifeless losses. In Cleveland, offensive breakthroughs against Kluber and Carlos Carrasco were followed by a puzzling dud against rookie Shane Bieber, making his second big-league start.

    The Twin just can't overcome a complete lack of output from so many contributors. Max Kepler's two-run double off the wall Saturday was nice to see, but it's the only extra-base hit he's mustered in his last 18 games dating back to late May. Logan Morrison's two-hit effort on the same night was helpful, but after turning in another 0-fer on Sunday he's batting .191 and slugging .344 for the season (still hitting cleanup daily, though).

    The club's biggest problem child was sent packing after Thursday's loss in Detroit.

    Confounded by his total collapse at the plate, the Twins have resorted to extreme measures with Sano, sending the 2017 All-Star down to Single A in what's being framed as essentially a second spring training.

    It is telling the front office found Sano's deficiencies so severe that a typical Triple-A demotion wasn't viewed as the solution. They feel he needs a complete rebuild, both on the field and off, so they've sent him to their developmental HQ in Ft. Myers.

    Who could argue with the decision?

    Since a strong showing in Minnesota's first three series of the season, Sano has been a black hole in the lineup, slashing .182/.237/.331 with 52 strikeouts and nine walks in 131 PA. Worse than the results were the process – ugly AB after ugly AB, marked by constant chases and check swings.

    Back in his rookie season, when he took the league by storm with a .916 OPS in 80 games, the most impressive aspect of Sano's performance was his ability to work counts and capitalize. He ran the count full in 28% of his 335 plate appearances, and hit .240/.581/.700 with seven of his 18 homers once he got there, reflecting a tremendously advanced approach.

    This year, Sano has reached a full count in only 30 of 163 PA (18%) and has collected two singles. That just about says it all.

    He took the demotion in stride, at least publicly, and now Sano will begin the (potentially lengthy) process of trying to find himself, as the Twins try to find themselves without him.

    TRENDING STORYLINE

    Buxton had a .156 average and .200 slugging percentage in 94 plate appearances before landing back on the disabled list at the end of May. The root of his offensive issues was apparent enough: a terrible approach full of guesses and whiffs.

    Fellow young outfielder Kepler, in his last 94 plate appearances, is batting .171 and slugging .268. That includes a .137 average and .157 SLG in June. Unlike Buxton, he doesn't have the unparallelled CF defense to offset his dearth at the dish.

    Nor does he have the broken toe, or broken plate approach, to help explain it.

    The 25-year-old is taking good at-bats. His 41/32 strikeout-to-walk ratio speaks to a discerning eye; Kepler's BB-rate is third-highest among active Twins and his K-rate is second-lowest. He doesn't get fooled easily. But when he puts the ball in play he's doing no damage. This club just can't afford to be getting nothing from Max with so many others slumping or sidelined.

    What to do? At this point there aren't a ton of appealing options.

    Send him to the minors, along with so many other members of the team's supposed core? Hardly a likable thought.

    Bump him down in the lineup? He already finds himself batting seventh now, even against righties.

    I welcome your opinions in the comments. Seems to me that Kepler's swing needs some serious work, given that it's not producing any kind of thunder upon contact. Is James Rowson ready to guide him toward the right path? And is Kepler willing to listen, after showing reluctance to alter his swing during spring training?

    DOWN ON THE FARM

    While Minnesota's bats have lagged this year, it's been encouraging to see so many promising developments with hitters in the minors. Let's take a quick run through some of the organization's top prospects:

    On Thursday, Alex Kirilloff put forth his best effort yet in a season full of strong ones, collecting four hits including a pair of home runs in his second 4-RBI game of June. After clubbing two more doubles on Sunday, he's now slashing .333/.391/.607 for Cedar Rapids, with 38 extra-base hits and 56 RBIs in 65 games, to put himself right back on the national radar following a lengthy absence. I'd expect to see him move up to Ft. Myers within the next month.

    Royce Lewis will likely be joining him. The team's No. 1 prospect enjoyed a monster week, going 10-for-24 with four doubles and a home run for the Kernels. We did learn over the weekend that Lewis has been dealing with patellar tendinitis in his knee for the past month, which only makes his resounding success all the more impressive. The rapid development of the teen phenom's power tool this summer has been extremely exciting.

    Speaking of power, Travis Blankenhorn won the Florida State League Home Run Derby on Friday by smashing 12 bombs in the final round.

    https://twitter.com/MiracleBaseball/status/1007767499549618176

    It was a good reminder of the 2015 third-round pick's innate power, which hasn't always shown up on the stat sheet; he hasn't hit a homer for the Miracle since May 11th. However, Blankenhorn is batting .333 with a .388 OBP in June.

    With first-round draft pick Trevor Larnach – considered one of the best college bats in the country – expected to sign soon, the organization's long-term offensive outlook is bright.

    LOOKING AHEAD

    After treading water again during their 3-3 road trip, the Twins return home and face a tall task with the 49-24 Red Sox coming to town. Last-place Texas theoretically presents an easier assignment over the weekend.

    The Indians are looking ahead to home series against the White Sox and Tigers, so if things go as one would expect this week, the Twins may find themselves in dire straits come next Sunday. They are already five games out, with the season's halfway mark approaching, after failing to seize a prime opportunity for the sweep in Cleveland.

    TUESDAY, 6/19: RED SOX @ TWINS – LHP Chris Sale v. RHP Jose Berrios

    WEDNESDAY, 6/20: RED SOX @ TWINS – LHP David Price v. RHP Lance Lynn

    THURSDAY, 6/21: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Rick Porcello v. RHP Kyle Gibson

    FRIDAY, 6/22: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Mike Minor v. RHP Fernando Romero

    SATURDAY, 6/23: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Yovani Gallardo v. RHP Jake Odorizzi

    SUNDAY, 6/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Bartolo Colon v. RHP Jose Berrios

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Featured Comments

    Here’s my question. What makes people think Carter would be better than Morrison? Morrison has basically the same numbers at the MLB level as Carter at AAA.

     

    I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

     

    I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

    Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA.

     

    If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.

    I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

    If he keeps hitting like this, have no fear... He won't hit the goal he needs to achieve to get the vesting option.

     

    Once Sano is done with his intervention I'm guessing he'll be the primary 1B/DH going forward

    As we discuss alternatives to Morrison at DH, I will note that Hanley Ramirez is still sitting out there in free agency. Seems inexplicable that he hasn't signed anywhere after Boston released him nearly three weeks ago. 

    Maybe other teams also read what I keep coming back to in MLBTR when Hanley was released:

    "Dombrowski says Cora assuaged any worry that bumping Ramirez would harm chemistry in the clubhouse."

     

    It's hard to get a GM to be more direct than that.

     

    Or perhaps other teams have their own sources too. :)

     

     

    The club's biggest problem child was sent packing after Thursday's loss in Detroit.

     

    Unfortunately he did not.

     

    Dozier last 2 weeks:  .098/.196/.171 .
    Dozier with men on season: .226/.234/.371

     

    Sano last 2 weeks: .167/.219/.233
    Sano with men on season: .263/.296/.500

     

    Facts.

     

     

     

    Edited by Thrylos

    Morrison is definitely disappointing, but with some mercy from the BABIP gods (.218 this season, career mark entering this season was .273), he would have a roughly league average batting line right now, even without the power.

     

    Ramirez would need to regain his power to top that, and he's further removed from plus power than Morrison.

    Complete and utter aside.
     

    I was reading an article about Mike Trout and started playing around with his stats on Baseball Reference. Turns out the AL team (interleague has small sample so excluding NL teams) he has the hardest time with is the Twins. However, this year we only have two payers (Rosario and Escobar) with a higher OPS than Trout has against the Twins (.873). And we're the team he plays the worst against.

     

    That's crazy. Mike Trout. It's sad the Angels seem to be intent on wasting his talents.

     

    Maybe other teams also read what I keep coming back to in MLBTR when Hanley was released:

    "Dombrowski says Cora assuaged any worry that bumping Ramirez would harm chemistry in the clubhouse." It's hard to get a GM to be more direct than that.

     

    Or perhaps other teams have their own sources too. :)

    Even in the analytics era the nerds still seem to agree about one non-statistical team building philosophy: don’t employ cancers.

    I said during the offseason, probably more than once, that it looked like the Twins were building themselves to do one thing: Beat Cleveland. They are accomplishing that goal, generally. Unfortunately the Twins need some right handed hitting to beat everyone else.

     

    Having said that ... these Twins *are* better than last year's Twins. But remember, last year was a down year. The only teams over .500 made the playoffs. That's not normal. 

     

    AL East, West and Wild Cards are locked, all they have to do is win the Central huh?

    My only point was that with the exception of those 4 teams mentioned every other team in MLB is in about the same condition as the Minnesota Twins. If they keep beating Cleveland they could actually win the Central but I was just trying to say that a whole bunch of teams are scratching and clawing around the .500 mark. Who would think that at this point of the season Buxton and Santana would be on the DL and Sano would be in  A ball and the team batting average is in the .230s and the Twins are far from out of it.

     

    Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA.

     

    If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.

    Morrison needs to bat much lower than the 4th since he has been struggling. By batting him lower, it will help the situation even better.

    To be fair, I think the Angels have assembled a pretty good team around Trout, if not for injuries...

    Not sure what Angels team you’re looking at. This Angels team is top heavy and frankly, has overachieved. It’s not an awful team but the role injuries have played for the Angels has been overstated.

     

    • Ohtani is obviously a big loss but he was also markedly better than anyone would have expected coming in. He wasn’t a guy you could pen in.

    • Garrett Richards is really the only other major player who has missed time. And Garrett Richards missing time should be expected at this point as he’s started a total of 12 games the past two years. He’s a good player but not someone who should make or break your season.

    • Guys like Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun have also hit the DL but those guys have been pretty awful so missing them hasn’t been a big deal. The Angels have had 15 guys hit the DL but they haven’t been particularly good players.

     

    The real issue is that this was a pretty risky team to begin with:

     

    LINEUP: The biggest issue for the Angels is their lineup is pretty awful – it feels like those top-heavy Tigers teams. They have Trout and little else. The Angels have gotten a career year from Simmons and what counts as a bounce-back year from Pujols and even with that are pretty deficient. The non-Simmons infield is super old and ineffective – Pujols and Kinsler have predictably struggled, they bet on Cozart after a career year out of nowhere, and Luis Valbuena has taken a big step back at 32. Upton is having the season you’d expect and is a good player but he’s really the only guy besides Trout who is having the good season you’d expect. Calhoun and Chris Young have both been awful at the other corner. In short, the Angels once again trotted out a lineup of Trout, a few good players and a lot of drivel. They haven’t developed any cheap, effective position players and that’s killing them. Again. Trout is great but you can’t depend on him every game.

     

    ROTATION: Those Tigers teams were hit-and-miss but they got away with it some years because they had dominant pitching. The Angels had Ohtani and Richards but other than that, they’ve actually been way luckier than they could expect. Skaggs is outperforming his FIP by a half run and Barria by 1.7 runs. Andrew Heaney is having a bounce-back year but he’s started even less games than Richards these past two years. The Angels rotation was “hope Richards pitches a full season, Ohtani is an ace, and we can cobble it together otherwise”. They’ve gotten luckier than they should have on the back half of that but depending on Richards and Ohtani seemed pretty risky and has turned out rather predictably.

     

    BULLPEN: The Angels pen sits middle of the pack. They’ve lost some arms to injury but no one especially damaging. This is about the pen they could expect to have.

     

    I don’t see a well-put-together team. I see an organization that continues to try to take shortcuts and is paying for past mistakes. Pujols salary hurts their ability to cash in with free agency and they make strange decisions with the money they have (Zach Cozart was one of the more questionable offseason signings and bringing in Kinsler was a pretty risky proposition). They’re dependent on catching lightning in a bottle with guys like Simmons and Kinsler and while those work out sometimes, you’re almost always better off using young guys who might develop into something better than expected.

     

    Poorly constructed team. They only have two more years of Trout and they’re wasting it. No one should be surprised if he ends up in pinstripes halfway through next year.

     

    Turns out Stewart is two months younger than me...which means that despite Ichiro's temporary retirement, there is still a professional baseball player older than me!  It's almost like that thing from The Polar Express, where I can still hear Santa's magic bell ringing.

    Don't look back, something might be gaining on you.

    Well, at least we aren't Baltimore fans.

    God that would be the worst. Imagine looking at the Yankees and Red Sox and being as bad as the Orioles. Ugh.

     

    The Twins are at least looking rosy for the future. A young developing core with some high-upside MILB arms and the ability to compete now. And the Royals and Tigers are in the process of bottoming out while the Indians are starting to see the end of their window. The White Sox have tons of prospects but not all will pan out (hopefully!)

     

    It's a bit dark now but overall, not a bad spot to be in for the Twinkies in the AL Central.

     

    How many Defcon levels are there?  I'm assuming our Defcon's go to 11.  

     

    Also, how does Total System Failure work into the Defcon protocols?

     

    As crappy as so many guys are playing on offense, it is amazing they are anywhere near Cleveland in the standings.  A lot of people would jettison players, but at this point, I think if I'm in charge (ha!) I roll the dice that Dozier, Morrison, et al, get rolling before its too late.

     

    Its been said, but this team could use a Shannon Stewart type spark.  The Mariners and the D-backs have been early traders, and both acquired a Stewart type player.  Now, I realize there are many factors at play, and correlation doesn't equal causation and all that or something, but hey, they're both in first place.

     

    With Kepler's struggles, Buxton's uncertainty, and the underwhelming contributions from Grossman, Lamarre, and Cave, a quality veteran OFer would be on my wishlist.

    I banking on Buxton being that spark.   He was last year and he is our best chance this year. 

    I banking on Buxton being that spark.   He was last year and he is our best chance this year.

    Polanco too. And who would be surprised if Dozier went nuclear for two months? Nice thing for the Twins is that Rosario/Escobar seems relatively sustainable (maybe more Rosario than Escobar) and guys like Kepler, Dozier, Morrison, Garver, Buxton, Sano, and Polanco all have the upside to make this offense scary. With the pitching solid, how many really need to get hot to set the Twins on a streak? 2 or 3?

     

    Didn't even mention the positive effect of having steady Mauer around.

    Edited by ThejacKmp

    Morrison needs to bat much lower than the 4th since he has been struggling. By batting him lower, it will help the situation even better.

    who should bat 1-4? You’ve got Mauer and the Eds and then.... Who? Adrianza? Grossman? Please put together a lineup.

     

    Not sure what Angels team you’re looking at. This Angels team is top heavy and frankly, has overachieved. It’s not an awful team but the role injuries have played for the Angels has been overstated.

    Just from their current roster, Heaney and Richards missed virtually the entire last 2 seasons. Tropeano missed a year and a half (and is out again now), Shoemaker missed much of last year and now all of this year, and Skaggs has missed a lot of time too. Ohtani could be out until 2020 now. JC Ramirez looked like a decent swingman, out for the season. Terrible luck with rotation health. Their closer Middleton is also out for the season, maybe into 2019.

     

    They're not a perfect team, but they've really gotten burned by pitcher injuries the last few years.

     

    who should bat 1-4? You’ve got Mauer and the Eds and then.... Who? Adrianza? Grossman? Please put together a lineup.

    I would rather have Grossman bat 4th Kepler 5th Morrison 6th Dozier 7th Garver 8th Adrianza 9th.

    Well I would like to see Grossman DH more. That would take away some ABs from Morrison.

    Edited by jun

    To give a bit of factual context, here are what the Twins' hitters are doing the last week.  In short:  Everyone whose first name does not start with E has played within various degrees of awfulness ranging from replacement level to pathetic.  So eg. sitting Morrison for Kepler or Grossman will be akin to rearranging Titanic's chaises longues...

     

    42168406424_4e4e947d6b_b.jpg

    Edited by Thrylos



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