Week in Review: Collapse Complete

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/23 through Sun, 9/29
***
Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 82-80) 
Run Differential Last Week: -16 (Overall: +7)
AL Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (10.5 GB)

Game 157 | MIA 4, MIN 1: Ober Flops, Lineup Bows to Lowly Marlins
Game 158 | MIN 8, MIA 3: Offense Finds Life for First Time in Weeks
Game 159 | MIA 8, MIN 6: Last Hopes Flicker Away in Hideous Loss
Game 160 | BAL 7, MIN 2: Twins Eliminated from Playoff Contention
Game 161 | BAL 9, MIN 2: Orioles Showcase Superiority in Rout
Game 162 | BAL 6, MIN 2: Season Ends on Another Flat Note 

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NEWS & NOTES

There were a smattering of moves in the final week of the season, so let's run through them quickly before we dive into the game action:

• Matt Wallner (oblique), Trevor Larnach (hamstring) and José Miranda (back) all finished the season on the injured list. Replacing them on the roster for the final days: Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Michael Helman. Wallner suffered his injury on a check-swing in Tuesday's game; Larnach and Miranda have been fighting through physical issues for much of the season.
• Cole Irvin was swapped out for Jorge Alcalá, reversing the move that transpired earlier in the month when Alcalá was optioned to the minors to make room for the waiver claim. Supposedly acquired to provide "length" in the bullpen, Irvin averaged less than one inning pitched in his four appearances as a Twin, which included a devastating implosion in Boston that helped extinguish the team's hopes. Meanwhile, after being sent down, Alcalá threw 5 ⅔ scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed between Triple-A and the majors. Bizarre.
• Justin Topa was finally activated after missing nearly the entire season, just in time to pitch in a meaningless stretch of games at season's end. To his credit, he made three scoreless appearances. Topa remains under team control next year at age 34.
• Kody Funderburk returned from a long IL stint, made one brutal appearance against Baltimore (1 IP, 4 ER) and then got sent down to finish his season in the minors. Diego Castillo was recalled to replace him, then swapped out (from the active and 40-man rosters) for Randy Dobnak on the final day of the season.

HIGHLIGHTS

You've got to respect Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the efforts they made to come back and try to salvage this season. There's no doubt that playing without their two most valuable players for most of the second half played a major role in the team's collapse, but these hobbled stars tried their best to make good in the latter half of September. It just wasn't enough.

Correa went 6-for-16 with two doubles and a home run last week, lifting his OPS to .960 in 11 games after coming off the injured list. Buxton went 7-for-18 with three doubles and a home run while surpassing the 100 games played threshold for just the second time in his career.

Enthusiasm will understandably be tempered because they missed so much time, but Correa and Buxton both had good seasons overall and were well worth their contracts when on the field. There's obviously reason for ongoing concern about the future health outlooks for both, but the fact that each player was able to make it back and produce at season's end feels like one of the few positives we can net from the wreckage of this wretched second half.

LOWLIGHTS

In the season's final week, the Twins looked like a team with no fight left to give. Boxed into a corner and essentially needing to win out to have a chance, they opened up on Tuesday by quickly digging a 4-0 hole against the lowly Marlins behind Bailey Ober, who – like Pablo López two days earlier – decided to lay an egg at the most inopportune of moments. Per usual, the offense was unable to mount any kind of comeback, stranding 10 base runners while going 1-for-9 in scoring position on the way to a dreary 4-1 loss that was never in doubt. 

Two days later, already on the brink of elimination, the Twins put forth perhaps their most pitiful performance of the entire season – a noteworthy accomplishment – falling 8-6 after 13 innings in a game full of little-league mistakes and extraordinary lapses in execution. Even play-by-play man Cory Provus couldn't mask his exasperation watching Carlos Santana get doubled off at second base after Ryan Jeffers popped up a bunt attempt in extra innings.

With the season coming to a brutal end, it would have been nice to at least see a few players other than Correa and Buxton finish on positive notes. Unfortunately that wasn't the case. Wallner, Larnach, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart all ended the year on the injured list. Those who remained look like the walking dead.

Miranda was among those who finished on the IL, but went 0-for-3 in his one game last week before being shut down, concluding his season on an 0-for-20 slump. After returning from the injured list in late July, he slashed .212/.242/.301 with zero home runs. His .237 wOBA over this span was worse than all but two qualified MLB hitters. It's dubious whether Miranda was ever fully healthy after his back soreness sprouted up around the All-Star break, but regardless, his massive drop-off in the second half puts him back on the fringe of Minnesota's plans going forward.

Neither of the team's catchers are likely to move on from the team's plans this offseason, but Jeffers and Christian Vázquez did little to inspire confidence going forward. Although Jeffers hit a meaningless home run – his first in more than a month – he went 3-for-16 otherwise during a week in which he once again looked rough defensively. Vázquez was 0-for-9 in his three starts, closing out his season with a .575 OPS. These two deserve props for their durability this season, but little else. 

Manuel Margot went 3-for-14 as Twins fans look forward to putting his terrible tenure behind them. Brooks Lee batted .178 with two walks in 75 September plate appearances. Edouard Julien, mostly relegated to the bench, went 0-for-4 on Sunday to lower his final average below the Mendoza line (.199). Willi Castro's second-half slide was punctuated by a 4-for-19 week.

Poor showings up and down the lineup. But the banner story of this post-break offensive collapse for the Twins, and the one we'll need to reckon with most during the offseason, is the disappearance of Royce Lewis. 

The ascendant start to Lewis's career came to a crashing halt right around the time he proclaimed he "doesn't do the slump thing," seemingly throwing the baseball gods into a fury. Since the All-Star break he's been not just a bad hitter, but one of the worst regulars in all of baseball; among 111 players with 200-plus plate appearances in the second half, his .276 wOBA is ninth-worst. He's been a replacement-level player during this span, per FanGraphs.

Rather than rallying to close the season, Lewis went out with a whimper, finishing 1-for-23 in the final week. He admitted during the second half that he was grinding physically, but he was healthy enough to play so that excuse falls somewhat flat. We're now left to wonder how much of his steep decline is attributable to durability and wear, and how much of it owes to opposing pitchers figuring out his game and stymying him. At his best Lewis has never been a truly disciplined hitter.

Either way, Royce has a lot of work to do during the offseason, because if the Twins are going to turn things around and get back on track as a franchise following this staggering setback, they're going to need Lewis to be at least some approximation of the star player we saw in the first 100 games or so of his career.

TRENDING STORYLINE

As the Twins turn their attention toward the offseason, we'll see how the franchise works to address its current woeful state. The club announced on Sunday that both manager Rocco Baldelli and chief exec Derek Falvey will be back next year, which isn't necessarily surprising, nor a bad thing. 

It will be interesting to see what happens around and below those two on the organizational charts. What of general manager Thad Levine, whose job security was conspicuously not verified? Among coaches, David Popkins and his hitting staff would seem to be at risk after the Twins fell into an unending team-wide offensive funk that sunk their season. Could the team seek a new voice to accompany Baldelli as bench coach?

More importantly, there are significant roster-building challenges ahead, presuming these "right-sized" payroll parameters are here to stay. Among the numerous escalating salaries on the books for 2025 is that of Pablo López, who will go from making $8 million this year to $22 million next year. That's a perfectly reasonable price for a prime-aged frontline starter like him, but Falvey and the front office will find it difficult to work around as they try to improve the roster with almost zero flexibility. (They're already butting up against the $130M payroll they ran this year in terms of current commitments for 2025.) With so many of their other top players either hobbled by injury or mired in regression. López is one of the few who actually boasts significant trade value.

Hopefully those aren't the kinds of decisions and sacrifices this front office is forced to weigh. Hopefully the organization's leadership sees the light after witnessing the sparsely attended funeral that took place at their beautiful ballpark this past week. This Twins team still has plenty of potential, and there were no shortage of encouraging signs to be found within this tough season. But what we just watched over the past six weeks makes clear that some key changes and some meaningful investments are needed to prevent this from becoming their new norm. 

That wraps up another year of the Week in Review. We've been running these weekly recaps every Sunday night all season, and whether you've been following along all year or this is your first time, we thank you for reading or listening. As always, you're invited to let us know what you liked and what we could do better. We'll see you next spring.