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    Urgency To Trade Plouffe Growing


    Nick Nelson

    Trevor Plouffe is a decent player who is having a bad year. He has been one of the worst offensive starting third basemen in the league, and he's making $7 million. No one's going to give up a whole lot for him in a trade.

    At this point, that is almost immaterial. Terry Ryan needs to be looking at the big picture, and that starts with moving on from the club's longtime staple at the hot corner.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    Plouffe is doing little to help the Twins this year, but that's not why he needs to go. It's all about Miguel Sano. The experiment of running the big young slugger to the outfield needs to end, and soon, because the risks assumed by this ill-begotten idea are quickly becoming unpalatable.

    Last week, the Twins lost Sano to the disabled list after he came up lame while hustling down the first base line to beat out a grounder. There are no indications that the injury had anything to do with his playing the outfield, but it's incredibly easy to see the inherent dangers that accompany his roaming around out there.

    Earlier in the game where Sano strained his hamstring, he had a ball skip away from him in right, turning into a triple for Billy Burns. Watch the video of that play here. Watch Sano sprint after the ball then come to an awkward stop as it drops in front of him and bounces away, forcing him to change directions and accelerate again.

    These are not the kinds of plays Sano should be trying to make. In his short time with the Twins, he has proven susceptible to strains and sprains in his lower body – unsurprising for a man of his size. Last year he missed time with ankle and hamstring injuries, and he tweaked his ankle again at one point this spring. His latest mishap is the first to require a disabled list stint, but the probability of future incidents is heightened when he's chasing balls around in right field, and that's not even mentioning the danger of him colliding with another player or a wall.

    Third base is Sano's home. He's far more adept at playing there and far less likely to suffer an injury associated with running or abruptly changing directions. He's the most important bat in the Twins lineup and will be for years to come, but he is being played out of position and exposed to added injury risk for the sake of keeping Plouffe in the lineup.

    That made some sense as a short-term plan, theoretically, if Plouffe was going to be a key power bat for a contending team. Instead, Plouffe has been a non-factor for a lousy team. The Twins have no commitment to him beyond this year. The chances of him returning next year are growing slimmer and slimmer. It would behoove Ryan to move him this summer so that the team can move forward with Sano at the hot corner and allow their outfielders to play in the outfield.

    Plouffe's numbers this year aren't going to spark a market frenzy, obviously. His .652 OPS ranks below 20 of 22 qualified MLB third basemen. Hampered by a couple of different ailments, he has managed only three home runs and five walks in 37 games. His strengths have not played up.

    But he does have strengths, and a track record, that will be valued by clubs with postseason aspirations. Plouffe has hit 74 home runs over the past four seasons and has developed into a fine defender. The fact that his contractual commitment doesn't extend beyond 2016 would be appealing to a team strictly seeking a rental at third base for a World Series run.

    Incidentally, the Royals and Mets, two squads that are looking to return to repeat as league champs, are both seeking just that. Kansas City's Mike Moustakas will miss the rest of the season with an ACL tear. New York's David Wright is expected to be sidelined until August or September, at least, by a herniated disc in his neck. Both of these developments have arisen within the past two weeks.

    Plouffe is a clear upgrade over the in-house replacement options for either team. The Twins have the luxury of making him immediately available. In fact, pulling off a deal sooner than later would benefit them by providing salary relief and allowing Sano to return to third base immediately when he comes off the DL.

    The return for three-plus months of Plouffe won't be much – maybe a low-level prospect or two – but something is better than nothing, which is what the Twins get if they non-tender the 29-year-old during the offseason.

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    Trading Plouffe and his $7 mil contract......

     

    Padres traded James Shields to White Sox yesterday and sent along $29mil in cash.

    Yeah, it can be done      :)

    Yeah, I'm sure the Twins could move him if they paid a substantial part of his salary.  Not sure the Padres got much in that trade - a journeyman starter and a 16 year old lottery ticket?  

     

    I'm honestly not sure what teams will be looking for help at third.  But I do think he will be traded.

    Agree, also at Sano's size, I don't think this is going to be a quick recovery. So it's more likely he comes back at DH not at third. No reason to look to just dump Plouffe. If you can get better value for Park, move him instead since Sano future is at first or DH.

    Park won't be traded for two reasons. International free agents may not want to play for the Twins if they think they might get traded halfway into their first season.

     

    Also, if he traded Park, TR would be admitting that his one offseason move was a head scratcher that only compounded a logjam problem. It's completely true, but the GM would never admit that mistake.

     

    Park won't be traded for two reasons. International free agents may not want to play for the Twins if they think they might get traded halfway into their first season.

    Also, if he traded Park, TR would be admitting that his one offseason move was a head scratcher that only compounded a logjam problem. It's completely true, but the GM would never admit that mistake.

    That also the reason given to not trading Josh Willingham at peak value - hope they still don't believe that. I'm not sure what value Park has in the trade market, but he should not be off the table because you are worried about future signings. 

     

    Park won't be traded for two reasons. International free agents may not want to play for the Twins if they think they might get traded halfway into their first season.

     

    I'll give you a third, and a fourth, and a fifth:

     

    3. His OPS+ is 107, which means he is 7% better than the average MLB hitter, even though he has not fully adjusted to the MLB vs Korean baseball; he will improve an already above average performance

     

    4. The Twins have already prepaid a bunch for Park and what is left is 3 years at $2.5M and $3M which is practically pocket change, plus an option for less than what Plouffe made this arbitration year

     

    5. He is the best fielding first baseman the Twins have above A-ball.

    Edited by Thrylos

    Park won't be traded b/c he shouldn't be traded.  Not because some arrogant GM cannot admit a mistake or b/c international free agents through the posting system who have very little control over where they would play would suddenly not play for the Twins. 

     

    Park won't be traded for two reasons. International free agents may not want to play for the Twins if they think they might get traded halfway into their first season.
     

    This argument continues to make little sense to me for a variety of reasons. I really don't think it's much of an issue.

     

    First and foremost, I would think that the prospect of playing for 100-loss team would be much more of a deterrent to a free agent wanting to sign.

     

    Wouldn't a majority of players like to be traded to more competitive teams?

     

    Also, if players are worried about being traded, can't they negotiate such things in their contracts?

    Fine job Nick! Especially in trying to keep something fresh that has been re-hashed so many times already. And I know I'll be repeating myself again....but....

     

    * I got the idea of keeping Plouffe. At its base, it was not a bad idea. We had no clue what we were going to have with Mauer or Park, and initially, we didn't know we'd even have Park. But we pretty much know what we have now, going forward, how the pieces are fitting/going to fit, and it's time to move Plouffe for whatever we can get. That's not an unsalted to Plouffe, just urgency.

     

    * Sano stays and plays 3B. Everything I've seen of him says he can play the position solidly. Not perfect, not Gold Glove, but solid. And that's OK and enough, especially with his bat. (Especially compared to some other all bat 3B around) And do we have to once again explore how poor defensively Gaetti and Koski were when they cam up? And others on other teams before settling in? It's a process. It takes time. There is every reason to believe he will only get better.

     

    * I am now of the belief they shouldn't stop with Plouffe, but move on from Dozier as well. Not because I'm frustrated with Dozier...and I am...and not because I don't like Dozier...he's one of my favorite Twins the past few years, along with Plouffe...but because it just makes sense.

     

    Dozier is young enough to be part of the rebuild. But what about Polanco? ASSUMING he really can't play ML SS for anything other than fill-in, he should possess all the tools to be a quality 2B who could still fill in at SS & 3B occassionally. While his ML sampling is disgustingly small to this point, everything in his talent bases and past production indicates he can hit, make some contact, take some walks, drive the ball with XB and occassionally HR power, run well and steal some bases, and has been a clutch hitter. Every year he starts out batting in the 1 or 2 spot and slides to the 3 spot to drive in runs. (Same thing Gordon has been doing lately)

     

    Escobar and Nunez can share SS competition for now, with the likes of Santana and Beresford as addition INF support until Gordon is ready. This is not a bad INF overall, is young, and filled with potential.

     

    Every time an ex-Twin has a good series against us ppl make out like we made a huge mistake. Danny Valencia was awful for years. He has a spotty mlb history. Leave him out of this.

    Valencia has slugged over .500 every year since leaving the Twins,  with the exception of his age 29 season split between franchises.

     

    He's nothing like a David Ortiz - level gaffe,  but he's also not a free pass for the Twins' Way either.   They let him go for essentially nothing while they were among the worst teams in baseball.

     

    And just to be clear,   I'm infinitely more concerned about the Twins not having a system in place to extract value from a Danny Valencia during a 90 loss season than I am about the Twins not having Danny Valencia.

    Edited by LaBombo

    Agreed that Sano at 3B would be better than in RF but I just want to be clear that Sano should be at 3B because he's a better defender, which in turns helps the team. He is no more at risk of crashing into a wall or getting hurt diving for a ball than Buxton or Kepler. Injuries are random and they're part of the game. IMO tommy john surgery and a couple hamstring pulls since joining professional baseball in 2010 doesn't make a guy injury prone. 

     

    Trading Park makes no sense at all; even less if the reason you trade him is to keep Plouffe. Park may become a consistent MLB power hitter, something the Twins could use.

    Park's perceived value is why you should listen to offers, just like Josh Willingham, he might not get more valuable than this.  Nobody is saying you should give him away.  You wouldn't be trading Park to keep Plouffe, you would be trading Park to have a place to play Sano.  Sano history in the minors doesn't show he going to be a much better fielder at third than he is in right field. If you trade Plouffe and find out Sano can't play third, you have not made anything better and you have put yourself in a bad trade position because you again have to trade a player to get Sano to DH.

     

    Other than trading the young players, all options should be considered.

     

     

    Well, when Sano is ready to come off the disabled list, send him to AAA Rochester for 7-10 games, partly for the heck of it, and mainly to play THIRD BASE every single game. Buy yourself 10 more days of a looksee at Kepler and Buxton (and Grossman) and maybe Arcia.

     

    Sano is NOT the future outfielder for the Twins. He is the future third baseman, possibly a first base guy down the line, and settling into a David Ortiz role eventually. The Twins have more than enough guys to play and back-up the outfield.

     

    Sadly, Plouffe is jsut a rental for a team and will only bring back a low-level prospect. He's too expensive to be packaged with another expensive contract. In that case, a team will stay in-house or grab someone similar to Nunez. In trading Nunez, the Twins don't solve the Sano issue, and possibly weaken themselves right now at shortstop.

     

    Like trading away Mientkieweicz and Pierzynski, you do it to bring in the new guy who will give you x-amount of years at x-value, and the potential is there to outshine your current roster holder.

     

    But I do say send Sano down for a rehab at Rochester to play third base, rather than just throw him into the spot. And if you still must keep Trevor, sadly, make him the super reserve (ala Cuddyer in the past) and have him play the outfield and first to increase his value to others as a tradechip.

     

    Making the Plouffe move, Sano counter move also helps settle the OF.

     

    I just don't think there's much question that Buxton and Kepler will be a part of it. Buxton may actually be ready to stick now. Hopefully, Kepler is ready "enough" now so that he can continue to grow and learn at the ML level. That's 2/3 of our OF.

     

    Who's the third guy? I don't know, could be Rosario if he starts playing good defense again and can hit like the player he was in the minors, and most of last year for the Twins. Maybe it's Palka. Maybe a defensive speedster like Granite. Maybe 26 yo Grossman is a better overall find than previously thought, and instead of being a 4th OF, maybe he's just a solid, all around ML OF. Maybe.

     

    But I'd rather settle my infield and settle settle 2/3 of my OF...including better defensively...with 1 final spot to fill

    One more cliche to add to the mix..."addition by subtraction". At this point doubling down on a bad decision in an attempt to get "perceived value" for Plouffe is hubris. Ditch him already. On another note, I am curious and mildly hopeful that R. Grossman turns into a serviceable starter. He has an excellent pedigree in that he was once viewed as a good prospect and may be a late bloomer. It has been awhile since Shane Mack and we are due for a success story of such ilk. (Yes, I know Mack was a rule 5). I realize the probable outcome for Grossman is likely something much less.

    besides mauer

    You beat me to it, no comparison. I don't think I have ever seen Mauer take a throw accidentally standing in foul territory. Park is better than I thought, but not Mauer. I know Park has some slugging numbers, but I'm not sure if they currently transfer into wins. Well, obviously they do not. But while he has ten HR's most are solo. And most are from off speed cookies. Maybe he will catch up, I don't know. But so far he hasn't seemed to be a bat that any team is going to try and figure out how to work around! Edited by Platoon

    When Sano comes back, why should it be an automatic that we put him back in right field?  Never mind trading Plouffe or the market for him.  If the Twins have both on the roster, what's the harm in putting Sano at 3rd and putting Plouffe in right?  Is Plouffe gonna be worse than Sano in right?  Maybe, but who cares?  We stink.  Is Sano gonna be worse than Plouffe at 3rd?  Maybe, but who cares?  We stink.  Long term, Plouffe isn't in our plans.  Sano at 3rd is in the plans.  So, why not put the future into motion now?  Why management keeps trotting Sano out to right field as if that is is future position on the team is beyond comprehension.

    The other thing is Plouffe has a career .809 OPS against lefties.

     

    So had TR not been satisfied with the return, at least we could be using him appropriately especially when Arcia was up here. At this point it doesn't matter, but it would make me more optimistic about the franchise if we caught up to where the league was five years ago

     

    *i get the first platoon was longer than five years ago. But it seems more widespread in about 2010 or so

    Edited by tobi0040

     

    Believe it or not there are plenty who do. I lost faith in his ability to be the GM we need back in 2007, but plenty on this board seem to completely trust his judgment. 

     

    I don't think you're making a valid assessment. I wouldn't be so quick to categorize your pals here in such black and white terms. You run the risk of unfairly labeling people as undiscerning apologists when the reality is simply that they hold a view different than your own.

     

    It's a very small minority on this board who completely trust Ryan's judgement. In other words, very few people on here do. There is a larger minority on this board who have not completely "lost faith" in his ability as a GM. I'm part of this larger minority, and yet, just like I felt about Gardy, I can get behind the idea of a change. However, just like in the case of Gardy's replacement, I think there's a real good chance Ryan's replacement won't be the cure-all some people expect, even if the replacement is a person with a solid reputation within the blogging sphere.

    Edited by birdwatcher

     

    funny, when Danny was let go, I don't think there was too much consternation over here. 

    There are two potential problems with that sort of sentiment.

     

    The first is that it appears to set the bar for Twins front office management at the somewhat disappointingly low level of 'No dumber than the average fan'.

     

    The second is that in a case of the fan base being generally right when the FO is wrong, the flip side of that sentiment often turns into some version of  'We don't have access to all the information the front office does, so we're not qualified to second-guess'.

     

    In a way,   though,   guess it balances out.   The first issue more or less dooms the Twins to futility,  and the second part sort of disqualifies us from having an opinion about that doom in the first place.

    Edited by LaBombo

    Thought it might be worth pointing out that a week ago MLB Trade Rumors published a list of 10 current trade candidates and had Plouffe at #8 (as well as Abad at #10.)

     

    This opinion doesn't represent "the industry," and doesn't necessarily mean that the Twins would get a lot for him, but it does seem that people outside the fan/homer sphere think there's some trade value there.

    The second is that in a case of the fan base being generally right when the FO is wrong, the flip side of that sentiment often turns into some version of  'We don't have access to all the information the front office does, so we're not qualified to second-guess'.

    We will never have all the access they do or the resources. We do know that 28 teams have more wins than us since 2011. By year end the Astros may put us dead last.

     

    There are two potential problems with that sort of sentiment.

     

    The first is that it appears to set the bar for Twins front office management at the somewhat disappointingly low level of 'No dumber than the average fan'.

     

    The second is that in a case of the fan base being generally right when the FO is wrong, the flip side of that sentiment often turns into some version of  'We don't have access to all the information the front office does, so we're not qualified to second-guess'.

     

    In a way,   though,   guess it balances out.   The first issue more or less dooms the Twins to futility,  and the second part sort of disqualifies us from having an opinion about that doom in the first place.

    The Twins were in good company in cutting Valencia.  Boston, Baltimore, Kansas City and Toronto always dropped him. 

     

    What I don't understand is, Why not have Plouffe and Sano just swap positions right now?

     

    Plouffe has played the outfield before. Would it really lower Plouffe's trade value that much to remind people he has positional flexibility?

     

    I can imagine three legitimate reasons for starting Plouffe at third over Sano at the start of the season. But they are all fading:

     

    1) Plouffe was the better third baseman, and they were trying to win now. That rationale is obviously moot.

     

    2) They think Sano has no future at third. If that's the case, his positions are DH, 1B, and outfield. With the unexpected acquisition of Park, that left outfield. So they parked him there until Mauer got injured or Park got sent to the minors, neither of which happened. And the team is so bad there's no real harm in letting Sano learn a new position up here, where he can face major league pitching. If that's the thinking, fine, I guess. But his transition is not going so well and should perhaps be reconsidered.

     

    3) They still want Sano at third long-term, but felt the need to puff up Plouffe's trade value by keeping him the starting third baseman. And hey, it's possible holding out till there were injuries at third on the Mets and KC worked. But if this is the plan they better unload him quick before Sano breaks something, like a bone, ligament, or the outfield wall.

     

    If a trade happens soon, their patience may still pay off. As stated above, Plouffe's value in the off-season was obviously zero, based on the Freese contract. Maybe it's more now.

     

    But I still don't see  the downside of a positional swap now. There are even some advantages. For instance, suppose Sano flops at third. Wouldn't you rather find that out BEFORE you give away his only replacement? Sure, you'd then have to play Plouffe in the outfield, not sit him on the bench, or his trade value would diminish. But so what? Is it really that important for Grossman to play every day? 

     

     

    We will never have all the access they do or the resources. We do know that 28 teams have more wins than us since 2011. By year end the Astros may put us dead last.

     

    That's primarily my standard as well.  The Twins' farm system was really the only cause for optimism in 2012-14,  and so far this year it's produced mostly just cringes and mutterings about 'just wait 'til 2017'.




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