Twins Trendspotting: Who's Hot, Who's Not?

WHO'S HOT?

1. Eddie Rosario

Brian Dozier could've easily topped this list, of course – he's got 10 homers and a .630 slugging percentage since the All-Star break – but his second-half surging almost feels routine now. A dominant Dozier down the stretch is like clockwork these days. I've been much more surprised by Rosario's torrid stretch, which extends back even further.

By the time Dozier started finding his groove about a month ago, Rosario was already in the midst of a prolonged breakout at the plate. His four-hit, three-homer game against Seattle on June 13th proved to be a launching point for what's been the Summer of Eddie.

Twelve days later he collected three hits and scored three runs in a sweep-clinching 4-0 victory over Cleveland. A week after that he tallied five knocks in a win at Kansas City. He had eight multi-hit games in July. More recently, his power has been fueling Minnesota's winning ways. Rosario has ripped five homers during the club's latest 7-1 stretch.

Altogether, the 25-year-old outfielder has hit .344/.390/.617 since the three-homer outburst in Seattle, quietly emerging as one of the league's most dangerous hitters. It hasn't always been pretty, and his mental lapses can still be utterly confounding (his fine 2-for-3 day on Sunday was marred by one of the ugliest swinging strikeouts you will ever see), but they're happening less and less.

Rosario has always had the rare gift of being able to drive a pitch almost anywhere it's thrown, but he's doing a better job of resisting the compulsion to always do so. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted last week, he has dramatically cut down on his swing rate at pitches outside the zone:

https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/895651094436528130

The results speak for themselves. Two months ago Rosario's long-term viability was beginning to look somewhat suspect, but he has turned a corner in a big way. We should all be celebrating the Summer of Eddie.

2. Trevor Hildenberger

J.T. Chargois. Nick Burdi. Tyler Jay. As Minnesota's much-hyped, hard-throwing relief prospects have gone down, one after another, Hildenberger has continued to do the same thing he's always done: fly under the radar and get people out. Twins Daily readers were plenty familiar with our two-time Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year, but Hildenberger isn't the kind of flashy young gun who garners lofty prospect rankings or hyperbole-packed spring newspaper columns.

He's certainly making his name known since arriving in the majors, though. Hildenberger has been an absolute revelation for the Twins bullpen. On Sunday, he recorded his first MLB save, dispatching four hitters with a strike-throwing clinic – only two of his 17 offerings missed the zone. That's been the story for the sidearmer more or less since he joined the team.

Hildenberger has now gone 14 straight appearances without issuing a walk. He's averaging more than strikeout per inning. He has an outstanding 57.1% ground ball rate. The Twins certainly weakened their bullpen by trading away Brandon Kintzler two weeks ago, but they might actually have found a superior option for the ninth inning in Hildenberger – certainly from a big-picture view.

3. Byron Buxton

Hildenberger has made it look easy, arriving in the majors and instantly finding a comfort level. As we all know, it wasn't quite so smooth for Buxton. Anointed the team's No. 3 hitter coming out of camp this year, the 23-year-old sputtered out of the gates, flailing away at the dish and quickly falling back to his customary spot at the bottom of the order.

Yet, he shows real signs of figuring it out, albeit not as auspiciously as Rosario. Buxton's story has been one of slow and steady growth. After striking out at a 37% rate in April, he's cut that down to 28% since. He has found much more consistency at the plate since the season's midpoint, with a .347/.407/.458 slash line in 23 games since the start of July. He's also 7-for-7 on steals during that span, and 19-for-20 on the season.

So what you have in Buck right now is an on-base machine who can pretty much take second at will whenever he gets on. The power hasn't come yet, but it only feels like a matter of time.

WHO'S NOT?

1. Miguel Sano

The exhilaration of Buxton's progression has been tempered somewhat by a troubling backslide from his fellow franchise centerpiece. Sano has been striking out a ton, which isn't unusual, but lately he's paired it with an uncharacteristic lack of patience. He walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances up until the All-Star break but that figure has dropped to 4.5% since, and in his past 22 games Sano has drawn only two walks while striking out 40 times.

The slugger impressively still has .255 average and .737 OPS during that span, because a slump for him qualifies as average production for mere mortals, but it's concerning to see him so bewildered at the plate. Sano is far too talented a player to be giving away at-bats as frequently as he has.

The regressing discipline has been especially noticeable in contrast with the improvements we've seen playing out with Buxton and Rosario. If Sano can find a way to get back into that zone from those early months, the Twins are a legit threat in the playoff race. If he can't, it's really hard to envision.

2. Jose Berrios

When Berrios made his triumphant return to the Twins in May and proceeded to torch two high-caliber lineups, it looked like a potential turning point for the rotation. Finally, a vaunted young arm fulfilling his potential and becoming a true impact addition. It was the perfect way to wash away the bad aftertaste of Berrios' nightmarish 2016 debut.

His recent outings, however, have had an all-too familiar flavor. In eight starts since the beginning of July, he has a 6.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He's failed to pitch into the sixth frame in five of those outings.

While his command hasn't been stellar, the issue this time around plainly is not a lack of control, as it was last year. The problem, oddly, is his stuff. The right-hander's reputed arsenal of hard, darting pitches has been completely hittable over the past several weeks. He hasn't induced double-digit swinging strikes in any of his past seven starts, and on Saturday he mustered only three whiffs on 72 pitches. Berrios had double-digit swinging strikes in seven of his first 10 starts.

So what's going on? Why are hitters barreling him up so much more successfully? He hasn't been losing velocity, or any evident bite on his breaking balls. Are teams simply coming up with better plans to attack him? Is he tipping? Are there sequencing issues at play?

Whatever the case, he and the coaching staff need to get it fixed in a hurry because it's been ugly lately and Saturday's clunker in Detroit might have been the most unsightly yet.

3. Max Kepler

One of the most encouraging things about Kepler's breakthrough campaign at Chattanooga in 2015 was that he finally overcame one of the most crippling flaws in his game: severe vulnerability to same-sided pitchers.

In 2013, at Cedar Rapids, he posted a .117/.232/.133 against left-handed pitchers. In 2014, he managed to bat .273 against southpaws but still had a dreadful 26-to-3 K/BB ratio against them in 83 plate appearances. So to see him move up to Double-A and bat .319 with an .863 OPS, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts, was big – a sign that perhaps Kepler could have a future as more than a platoon corner outfielder.

His rookie year with the Twins put a ding in those hopes, as he batted .203 with a .595 OPS against lefties, and now as a sophomore he is sitting at a brutal .138/.211/.172.

It puts Paul Molitor in a tough position, because right now Kepler doesn't look like a palatable option against left-handed pitchers, but he's young enough that you're doing him a disservice by taking away opportunities to face them. And at this point Robbie Grossman – another slumping hitter who could be listed here with his .205 average and .301 slugging percentage since the break – isn't framing himself as a superior alternative.

Which trending Twins have caught your attention lately?