Twins Trade Deadline Could Be Stuck in the Middle — Just Like Ownership

A significant trade would be a surprise under the current management and ownership group.

I just hope that there won't be a significant selloff...

The #1 organizational need is still a catcher to replace Vazquez next season. That's not really something people shop for at the July trade deadline.

They have enough depth and no gaping holes, though an injury between now and the deadline could change that assessment. They are unlikely to bring in a superstar due to the high price tag.

It still might make some sense to make a trade to re-shape the roster. Miranda and Julien aren't helping them but could help another team. McCusker and Eeles aren't likely to get a shot in Minnesota but someone else could be interested. Another reliever with options could be useful.

The Twins are a below average team at the plate. They don't hit many home runs, doubles, or triples and do not run the bases much at all. The sacrifice bunt is not a thing for them. Patience/ drawing walks is below average and they do strike out. The Twins will need an infusion of talent via prospects or totally unexpected trades to change the dynamic of the roster. The lineup can best be seen as functional.

The overall team defense is better than expected but still near or below average. Correa is exceptionally solid and Buxton makes all of the routine plays. France has been surprisingly competent at first base and Bader plays a good outfield. The gloves have been adequate on the whole.

The Twins have benefitted from pretty consistently good pitching. Both starters and relievers are doing their jobs. The pitching staff is among the best in baseball.

Teams rarely add catchers during the season unless the team is doing poorly and the pitchers are struggling. The ability to add a significant position player piece would almost certainly come at the cost of a major arm or two from the current staff, which would be counterproductive. If the Twins want to change the level of the play from their position players this will need to be done after the season. Is there anyone in management interested in changing? I'm not betting on that.

The best chance for the Twins is to qualify for the playoffs as a wild card team and have their pitching staff carry them while hoping that simultaneously a couple of bats get smoking hot. 

If the team is performing about the same at the deadline, "being stuck in the middle" won't be a product of an unwillingness to spend.  It will be a product of having a team that is not going to become a true contender as a result of adding one player.  There biggest underperforming positions are 3B, SS, and back-up catcher.  The best chance we have for improvement is Correa playing up to his ability and Royce getting it together.

It is obvious we need a legit catcher to pair with Jeffers next year. We are going to need a first baseman unless we move someone like Lewis or Larnach there. Short term, we need a SP and a bat. 1/3rd base is probably our weakest right now. I imagine a deadline just like last year. We'll pick up some nobody reliever who gets DFA a week later just so they can say they did something. With ownership up in the air and the way the season has gone, there's no way they're going to make an aggressive push for the playoffs. 

It would also be nice if Keaschall proves to be the real deal.

Sometimes the spark comes from an unexpected source.

42 minutes ago, gman said:

The July trading deadline is not the time to be expecting surprisingly good deals to occur. NO one is giving out big discounts in mid year trades.

The best July deals are nothing prospects for veteran role players and relievers. Teams will sell those kinds of guys just because they want to open up a spot for a rookie.

Deal Paddack while he's hot at the deadline. The team isn't going any where and why not capitalize on a pending free agent.

With expanded playoffs there are typically more buyers than sellers now. Makes for higher prices. 

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

That was their best chance for the playoffs going into the season

There were a fair number of people who predicted the Twins to win the AL Central. Some on Twins Daily had the team over 90 wins, which is always possible until it isn't. I'm suggesting the Twins are an 85 win Wild Card possibility.

3 hours ago, darin617 said:

The team isn't going any where

It isn't?

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I know I am an outlier but I have been on the sell train since they had the horrible start to the season.  Granted they are right back in it but the holes on offense seem significant and while there is time for that to change if they do linger in no man's land I would try and trade everyone I have on a one year deal as they won't be resigning them anyway.

I just hope guys like Paddack, Bader, Castro and France can have career years up to the deadline so that we can get some decent prospects in return. 

At this point in time I just don't see this team as "true" contender,  I would go the Cleveland route and trade away guys and hope for better future returns.  With as stacked as teams are these days the Twins need as much young talents coming up together as possible to get to the next level. I think some timely trades could help them longer term.

This is a reasonable take given the way you qualified "if they linger".  We just are not there yet.  Teams quite frequently turn seasons around.  We have a good SP staff and BP.  We were without Wallner and we have the potential for great improvement from Lewis and the addition of Keaschall.  Correa is also underperforming.  They have enough offense if two of Correa, Lewis, and Keaschall contribute significantly.

The nature of the name of the game is collecting enough assets to actually contend.  We can't buy them so supplementing our long-term assets by trading short-term assets makes a great deal of sense.  Cleveland and Tampa have demonstrated quite clearly the value in trading short-term assets.  Many Fans are always going to want a heavy emphasis on the present.  It's true anything is possible if you get in the playoffs but over emphasis on the short-term focus is a good recipe for long-term ineptitude.

I hope the players you mentioned perform such that we have a decent shot at post season success.  However, if the team is a longshot, go ahead and improve our future with trades that provide a reasonable chance of improving the teams for several years to come are available.  

“…two serious concerns. First, should a potentially outgoing front office be allowed to make win-now trades that mortgage the future? And second, could that same front office be tempted to prioritize short-term results in a bid to protect their own jobs?”

And maybe a third: “Would adding a couple of key pieces to the current roster to take them deeper into the playoffs make the team more attractive to a potential buyer?”

At best the Twins are a fringe playoff team. They are definitely not a World Series contender, especially considering the mega salary teams, like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc., that make a mockery of competitive balance that MLB doesn’t care about. The Twins’ offense is mediocre, and injuries to Lopez and Matthews will test their pitching depth. Any trade would need to better position them for next year and beyond. 

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are a below average team at the plate. They don't hit many home runs, doubles, or triples and do not run the bases much at all. The sacrifice bunt is not a thing for them. Patience/ drawing walks is below average and they do strike out. The Twins will need an infusion of talent via prospects or totally unexpected trades to change the dynamic of the roster. The lineup can best be seen as functional.

The overall team defense is better than expected but still near or below average. Correa is exceptionally solid and Buxton makes all of the routine plays. France has been surprisingly competent at first base and Bader plays a good outfield. The gloves have been adequate on the whole.

The Twins have benefitted from pretty consistently good pitching. Both starters and relievers are doing their jobs. The pitching staff is among the best in baseball.

Teams rarely add catchers during the season unless the team is doing poorly and the pitchers are struggling. The ability to add a significant position player piece would almost certainly come at the cost of a major arm or two from the current staff, which would be counterproductive. If the Twins want to change the level of the play from their position players this will need to be done after the season. Is there anyone in management interested in changing? I'm not betting on that.

The best chance for the Twins is to qualify for the playoffs as a wild card team and have their pitching staff carry them while hoping that simultaneously a couple of bats get smoking hot. 

That’s an accurate summary if this team. Somewhat better than middling because of pitching, which now has two starter out, including their presumed ace in Lopez. And mediocre offense that needs everyone to be above average to make it work. I think the team will win around 85 games, but I hope they surprise. But definitely not a threat to make a serious playoff run.

6 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

At best the Twins are a fringe playoff team. They are definitely not a World Series contender, especially considering the mega salary teams, like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc., that make a mockery of competitive balance that MLB doesn’t care about. The Twins’ offense is mediocre, and injuries to Lopez and Matthews will test their pitching depth. Any trade would need to better position them for next year and beyond. 

That must explain why the Red Sox are running away with their division and, wait, they're actually in 4th place with a losing record. Well, certainly the Yankees and Dodgers must have the best records in MLB, wait, that's the Tigers. 

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That must explain why the Red Sox are running away with their division and, wait, they're actually in 4th place with a losing record. Well, certainly the Yankees and Dodgers must have the best records in MLB, wait, that's the Tigers. 

Sure, it's possible for lower revenue teams to have success.  However, 2X revenue is an undeniable advantage.  Also, in the context of this thread, what did the Tigers do last year at the deadline?  How were the non-drafted players making a significant contribution acquired.  Were they established players acquired for prospects or prospects acquired for established players?

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Sure, it's possible for lower revenue teams to have success.  However, 2X revenue is an undeniable advantage.  Also, in the context of this thread, what did the Tigers do last year at the deadline?  How were the non-drafted players making a significant contribution acquired.  Were they established players acquired for prospects or prospects acquired for established players?

There is a huge difference between an "undeniable advantage" and a "mockery of competitive balance that MLB doesn't care about". If spending like the Dodgers truly was a "mockery of competitive balance" they'd be winning 75-80% of their games.

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There is a huge difference between an "undeniable advantage" and a "mockery of competitive balance that MLB doesn't care about". If spending like the Dodgers truly was a "mockery of competitive balance" they'd be winning 75-80% of their games.

I agree.  It's not insurmountable.  Just trying to get away from the hyperbole and put the advantage in perspective.  The Dodgers have won 90 games in the last 13 straight seasons.  The number of 90 win seasons for the 16 teams that most frequently appear in the bottom half of revenue is listed below.  Only 1 team (Cleveland) in the bottom half of revenue has won 90 games in 50% of the last 13 seasons.  Half of the teams have only one 90 win season in the past 13 years and only one has won a WS.   The number of 90 win seasons is listed below.  I think a fair assessment would be that the revenue advantage is very significant.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The number of 90 win seasons is listed below.

It doesn't take 90 wins to make the playoffs. The new playoff structure levels the playing field significantly. The difference in odds between a 95 win team and an 85 win team in a playoff game is negligible. We're talking about a 55% chance of winning each individual game for the 95 win team.

I would go for it and part with significant prospects to build a team that can make it through the playoffs. I wouldn’t add a back end starter or a middle reliever or a bat that doesn’t push everyone else a spot down in the line up. 

If this isn’t the year to go for it then I would stick with what I have and listen to offers for players on expiring contracts. No need to call unless the starting offer is already an overpay.