Twins Select Ryan Jeffers in the Second Round of the 2018 Draft

MLB Pipeline doesn't have him in the Top 200. Ouch.

Number 77 on fangraphs.... Here is their summary....

Big catcher with non-zero chance to stay back there and above-average raw power

So Matthew LeCroy?

Underslot I assume? Twins looking to go shopping for free-falling talent tomorrow?

I imagine he will sign for a bit under slot, but that wouldn't be the motivation for the pick. The Twins presumably think Jeffers is good at baseball.

BA's got him at 295. 

"...non-zero chance to stay back there..." What the heck is that supposed to mean? He's such a bad defensive catcher that it will take massive physical therapy to get him behind home plate? 

I'm hoping this statement is attributable to the hardened cynicism of baseball scouts. Otherwise the Twins just drafted maybe a so-so DH somewhere down the line. 

I googled it. Jeffers is a power hitting catcher. Not much else from video.

Here is what BA had to say about him:

Jeffers has put up remarkably consistent numbers in his three years at UNC-Wilmington, and is a career .325/.452/.623 hitter with the Seahawks through the first 54 games this spring, with none of his individual season lines far off from that mark. Since becoming an everyday player as a sophomore, Jeffers has tapped into double-digit home run power, though there are scouts who are skeptical of that sort of home run production continuing to show up as a professional. A team not convicted in his power might be out on Jeffers, as he’s a below-average runner with an average arm behind the dish, and questions about whether he can stick there. If a team buys into the bat being real—and there’s also wood bat track record to suggest it’s not—he could be an interesting offensive option in the middle of the top ten rounds

I imagine he will sign for a bit under slot, but that wouldn't be the motivation for the pick. The Twins presumably think Jeffers is good at baseball.

Slot is 1.1M and he's more like a 4th Rd talent at best so maybe the Twins got him at 400-600K which saves ~500-700K for the next pick

I'm not sure the math adds up, but maybe I'm not following.

Slot is $1.1M in the second, and you "save" 600K. Say you save $1M in the first round. Now, say slot is $600k in the third.

In the second you'd have the $2.1 million to allocate to a player. In the third you'd have $2.2.

So why not just take the guy you want in the second? What difference does $100K make?

I'm not sure the math adds up, but maybe I'm not following.

 

Slot is $1.1M in the second, and you "save" 600K. Say you save $1M in the first round. Now, say slot is $600k in the third.

 

In the second you'd have the $2.1 million to allocate to a player. In the third you'd have $2.2.

 

So why not just take the guy you want in the second? What difference does $100K make?

These first 2 pics seem like bats that can reach the majors quickly. The goal here could be to try to find a bat during our window of contention that can help. A high schooler wouldnt be up in time.

While their defense wont be quite ready. I think their bats could be in 2 seasons. And saving money for a pick that falls in the draft is a bonus as well.

catchers don't usually hit .300.  OK, I'm in. 

Couple random comments about this pick that I've thought through since it was announced:

 

1.) It's important to remember that the Twins Top 200 or their draft board or whatever you want to call it isn't the same as MLB.com or Baseball America or FanGraphs or anyone else... and that's a good thing. The Twins have had eyes on these guys far longer and more often than those sites. So, just because he wasn't in whoever's top 200 really isn't a big deal.

 

2.) That said, I have to believe they got some savings from that pick, something below slot.

 

3.) I'd also say that it clearly signals that the Twins valued obtaining a catcher (or more) in the draft, and they are fully convicted that Jeffers can be a catcher, a big league catcher, at some point. They correctly predicted a mini-run on catchers (2-3 came after he was selected, and since they don't have a 3rd round pick, they didn't want to wait until then, knowing that the guy they clearly wanted (Jeffers) wouldn't be there ... This is all a guess, of course.

I liked this post, because all it did was make sense. You may not have been in the room, but I can't help but think you were. I think you may be right.  Twins like hitting catchers, ala Mauer, Red Dawg (hit .341 one year as Mauer's BU) and everyone not named Butera (anybody notice he is still in the league?) 

So, we currently need catchers. This pick won't change that. I still suspect a trade is imminent. If Garver doesn't shine and Wilson don't hit (he has a cannon of an arm, which i saw IRL in Seattle, so I will shut up about him)  we still need a playable backstop. Which I think may mean a call up for a spell, if only a couple weeks, if we can't find a deal. But who?  I like Nav.  Give him a week in the Hilton, why don't we?

BTW, Can Rosario catch?

And am I the only one who thinks calling up a kid, maybe a Lookout, if only for a spell, makes him a better player, long run? It gets him a dose of desire for use later, right?  We have a young team. There will be hiccups, but when you go with a youth movement, you gotta let the kids play. So you toggle the switch and call up a kid. Give him a look at the Show. Send him back with his face glowing like he just saw Sophia Vergera up close. He may be back sooner than expected that way.

BTW, if like me you are following the  MLB draft, you don't have enough to do 

I understand an 80% chance to stay at catcher, or 100, or 50 or 20, or even zero. I have no idea what non-zero means. Seems that if people want to communicate, they won't do it in code. Non-zero could mean anything then? Like anywhere between zero and 100% chance? Now that is sticking your predictive neck out, big time.

 

I find it interesting that this FO spends 24 million or so on a catcher that can't hit, because they like glove first, but they draft a hitting catcher, but don't sign a Ramos or a hitting catcher to play for the Twins.

See, that is why you will never work in the FO. You expect things to make SENSE.

If it makes any difference, I thought the same thing. 

I'm not sure the math adds up, but maybe I'm not following.

 

Slot is $1.1M in the second, and you "save" 600K. Say you save $1M in the first round. Now, say slot is $600k in the third.

 

In the second you'd have the $2.1 million to allocate to a player. In the third you'd have $2.2.

 

So why not just take the guy you want in the second? What difference does $100K make?

Well, of they like Jeffers and think he won’t be available in the third, that would be one reason.

TRyan Jeffers has 55 raw, chance to catch. Big-bodied guy with enough arm strength to catch but mobility issues and maybe receiving issues catching pro stuff.>>>>>>>>>>> The thing about catcher is simply this. Your defense, or lack thereof, impacts the game on so many pitches, it has to be at a minimum adequate, or your bat has to be exceptional, for you to be a plus player on your team. We are currently doing live time research on this scenario right now. A catcher with a very average bat, and serious receiving short comings. It doesn't take long to see the amount of offense one has to generate to overcome the lack defensive abilities. (I think there is a non zero chance anyone will agree with this)