Twins Clinch Division Title, Now What Should the Postseason Roster Look Like for Round 1?

On Friday night at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central division championship and a spot in the playoffs for the first time since the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Yes, there are eight more games to play, but c'mon, it's OK to start talking playoffs now, right? And to do so, let's first consider the roster. 

You should do this exercise with me as you read through this article. I think it will show how many difficult decisions that the front office, Rocco Baldelli and the staff create their roster. And, while some of the choices may not be difficult, it is also interesting to see how many players will likely at least be considered (or even kept around in case of injury, or to potentially be part of a following round. So, go grab a sheet of paper and a writing utensil. 

Now, Round 1, aka the Wild Card round, starts on Tuesday October 3rd. Our roster drops back down to 26 players instead of the 28 players that could be on the September rosters. 

The Wild Card round is a Best of Three series and all games will be played at Target Field. Sure, it is theoretically possible to pass all three AL West teams and jump to the #2 seed (and get a first-round bye), but it is very unlikely. In addition, that may not be decided until the very last day of the season, and we will want to have a roster established for the Wild Card scenario.

If the season ended following games played on Friday night, the Twins would be playing the Houston Astros. However, over the next nine days, lots can happen and the Twins could play the Astros, Blue Jays, Rangers, or Mariners. While it is feasible that the makeup of the roster, and probably specifically the bullpen, might change slightly based on opponent, we generally just want to put the best roster out there, the roster that can win at least one, and preferably two Wild Card games. 

Alright, at the top of your sheet of paper, you will want to write "Pitchers" on the top left of the page and "Hitters" on the top right of the page. If you want, you can make a little line to the right of both words. The first decision you must make is the composition of your 26-man roster for Round 1. Remember that the roster can be altered for a potential Round 2. (Side note: Wouldn't it be great if the Twins played in a Round 2? I would like that!)

So the question becomes, how many pitchers do the Twins need in a three-game series? Personally, I would prefer to have a 10-man pitching staff for this series (3 starters, 7 relievers), but I am also going to try to think about what the Twins might do, and I think that they may go with 11 pitchers, just in case. 

So, at the top-left of my page, I will have: Pitchers __11__, and on the top-right, I will have Hitters __15__. Your page might look a little different. 

Alright, now let's get to the specifics, starting with the pitching. 

The Pitchers (11) 
Pitching wins, right? So let's start there. Unlike previous playoff teams, the 2023 pitching staff has actually been a strength. On your paper, under the Pitchers column, write "Starting Pitchers (3)" and "Relief Pitchers (8)." You may have seven relievers, or you might has nine relievers. You should have three starting pitchers. 

Starting Pitchers (3): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda
Sonny Gray could legitimately finish second in AL Cy Young voting this season, and Pablo Lopez has been racking up strikeouts like Twins fans haven’t seen since Johan Santana. They are the easy choices for Game 1 and Game 2. 

The question, of course, is who would make the Game 3 start if it is necessary. Many believe that Joe Ryan has solidified himself as the third starter with how he has returned after his mid-season struggles. You won't get a big argument from me. I'm comfortable with Ryan too. But Kenta Maeda deserves more than a cursory look. The fact that Maeda was successful pitching out of the Dodgers bullpen in postseasons in the past should not play a factor in the decision.

In fact, I think that a logical analyst could probably even make the case for Bailey Ober in that spot. In reality, you could call it a coin flip between Maeda and Ryan - I would pick Maeda - with the other joining the bullpen as a long relief option. Unfortunately, the third pitcher likely finds himself off of the Round 1 roster, yet he could also find himself starting a Game 1 in the second round, depending on the scheduling. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Louie Varland, Emilio Pagan, Chris Paddack, Brock Stewart, Joe Ryan
While he has begun to make games interesting of late, Jhoan Duran remains one of baseball’s best closers. Griffin Jax and Emilio Pagan have been there all year, and most of the time, they have been successful. Caleb Thielbar had a couple of extended stints on the IL, but he has come on strong at the end. Louie Varland has a chance to be a long-term starter in a strong rotation, but right now, he has the opportunity to come in and air it out for an inning or two. Certainly he can be the X-Factor out of the Twins bullpen! He’s been able to do that the last few weeks with the Twins. Joe Ryan gets the final spot. The team could choose to piggyback him with Maeda, or just have him ready if any of the starters need to be removed in the third or fourth inning for any reason. 

The interesting choices, if they go with an eight-man bullpen, remain. And, of course, lots can still happen before the end of next weekend. The Twins could go conservative. That would likely mean going with Josh Winder and Kody Funderburk. Both are still very early in their big-league careers, and both have had some successes that say they could have long big-league careers. Both would be reasonable choices. 

However, if it was me, I’d say go big or go home. To me, that means big arms. To me, that means taking Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart off of their rehab assignments, off of the 60-Day Injured List, and place them onto the Twins roster.

Stewart has made three rehab appearances with the Saints, has shown a fastball in the upper-90s, and looks ready. Paddack hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since April of 2022 and had his second Tommy John surgery. He has been rehabbing all last season and this season, hoping to be able to help the team at the end of the season in whatever role. He has made one rehab start at Fort Myers and another at Wichita. He has tossed three strong innings in St. Paul as well. Most impressive, he’s throwing 96-98 mph, just as hard or a little harder than before the surgery.

On one level, it doesn’t feel fair to the guys who have been on the active roster throughout the year. On the other side, Paddack has been working. He’s been doing his job. He has been on the team and doing what he has needed for himself and the team. If Paddack being on the roster gives the Twins a better chance for a win, then that should be the choice. Jorge Alcala hitting 97 and 98 mph in St. Paul on Friday night certainly gets his name into the conversation as well. 

Stick Around for Round 2, or for Emergency: Jorge Alcala, Dylan Floro, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, Dallas Keuchel, Bailey Ober. If there is a Round 2, I would think Ober should be included, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

The Hitters (15)
In this Round 1 prediction, we went with 11 pitchers, we can place 15 hitters on the Round 1 roster. Under the Hitters column on your sheet of paper, break it down into Catchers, Infielders, Outfielders, and Designated Hitters. I have 15 hitters on the roster, so I included three players currently on the Injured List but who all should be ready for this series. You may not want to do the same. 

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez 
Pretty easy choice here. While the playing time breakdown has shifted some throughout the season, these two have been ready to go day in and day out. Kyle Farmer can remain the emergency catcher. 

Infielders (6): Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer.
Hopefully Carlos Correa will get back and play in a game before the end of the season. Hopefully Royce Lewis’s hamstring will be ready to go for Game 1. Platoons are good. Putting players in the best position to succeed is good. Jorge Polanco should play second base every game. Correa will play shortstop. If healthy, Royce Lewis will play third base. There will be a platoon of Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano at first base. Farmer can be a bench bat, and would also be the insurance for Correa at short and Lewis at third base. Willi Castro could also 

Outfielders (5): Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Andrew Stevenson.
Against a right-hander, I would expect to see a lineup with Matt Wallner in left, Willi Castro in center, and Max Kepler in right field. Against a lefty, it’s probably a little more uncertain. I would suggest Castro in left, Taylor in center and then Kepler in right field. Stevenson would primarily be used for pinch running and potentially late-inning defense. Taylor and Castro can be pinch runners on days they don’t start. 

Designated Hitters (2): Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton.
Of course Julien can play second base, but in the playoffs, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco should play there every day. So Julien should get the majority of the DH at-bats. If they face a left-hander, I have no problem with Buxton starting at DH given Julien's extreme struggles versus southpaws. In the same way that Kirilloff and Solano are a tag-team at first base, Julien and Buxton should be the tag-team at DH. In addition, I have no problem taking a chance with Buxton in a pinch-hitting role too. 

Stick Around for Round 2 or for an Emergency: Jair Camargo (catcher), Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Luplow.  

So, what do you think about this potential Round 1, 26-man Twins roster? If you were in charge, how might your roster look different? Where are the question marks? Can this team with this roster give the Twins and their fans a playoff win for the first time in forever?