Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

Whitey333 · October 3

I agree with your list. I think when you have players that have been with you a while non tendering though understandablr, indicates to me some poor management. To let them go and get nothing is a failure. Yes players like Larnach may not get much on a trade but they could be bundled together to get something.

PuckettPond · October 3

If the White Sox win the World Series players will not be our concern but converting fans, players & the state of Minnesota to the Pope. Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Making Target Field our place of worship will help with our poor low attendance.

SE23 · October 3

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's a really simple perspective. How are you going to upgrade that roster spot? Free agents will cost more for less value. They can replace Larnach with prospects but they don't have enough depth anywhere else to let players go for nothing.

I certainly agree that Lewis, Larnach and Jeffers should have been traded earlier -- when we might have got something in return for them. That ship has sailed. We need more good players. Some will be our young prospects, other will have to be purchased by FA or trade. Simply moving Clemens to 1B is a major upgrade. Acquire a 3+ WAR second baseman. Sign Carson Kelly to catch. Maybe Roden can play some 1B and Kody can be the utility guy? Maybe Keaschall plays 1B every week? We can get better without breaking the bank.

old nurse · October 3

Lawrence, Kent, Garcia, Topa, Go,, Klein, Laweryson, Orze, Voth,and having to use Jackson and Arciay earl on shows that some competence in relief pitching is hard to find. Nance and Banda will be back.

old nurse · October 3

I could see them non tendering Lewis. 3 years in a row of replacement level play. The end of the season thud. He has had his chances. They might keep Larnach if he accepts any offer they make him.

tony&rodney · October 3

Why does it seem like the same story every offseason for the Minnesota franchise? Will they have a budget that makes adding players a realistic goal? A lockout should be concluded by April and there will be some changes, but not anything shockingly different than the current arrangements. There is enough revenue to shift around in MLB and the Twins could conceivably use a $160M figure to build their roster. Does a 25% change satisfy anyone? That would be around $140M. Money makes some difference.

The bigger change needs to be in how Zoll and his group approach building out the roster. Adding 2-3 players and calling it a day would be close to past practices. There should be trades made and a couple of free agent signings. The decision to roll back a similar roster would be frustrating. Thus the arbitration calls are related to conversations of value these players hold as utility players or in potential transactions. Trevor Larnach is a reasonable bench bat as is Royce Lewis. Will they accept the role of being the 12th or 13th roster spot? The same applies to Bailey Ober on the pitching side. Whereas Clemens, Bradley, Kremer, Ryan, and Ober are clear offers, the bullpen group (Nance, Sands, Banda) are easily replaced. The club needs to make changes. Other teams will also want to make some changes. The Twins need to be very active and seek out transactions that have the potential to improve their 2027 season. The inability to complete a few (at least three) significant transactions would be a sign of another roll it back campaign. Hope for change.

TheLeviathan · October 3

I mostly agree but I'm on the opposite side on Sands. Injuries derailed him last year but he had otherwise been ok to good for this team.

The Twins are not so rich with bullpen assets that "ok to good" should get chopped for a few million bucks.

twinsfansd · October 3

Banda won't be back until mid season at best, so cut bait and try for a minor league deal.

Go for a below expected deal for Ober, say $5M. Never hurts to have extra starters around as we well know.

Minor league deal for Sands high enough so he can be moved up and down from the roster next year without being claimed.

Lewis should get a deal, but then trade him and bring in a better player at 1B.

Nance is worth keeping around as low end bullpen.

Make every effort to trade Larnach, including as a throw in on a bigger deal. But do it before the arbitration deadline, or cut him lose and Thank him for his service.

Clemens, Bradley, Kremer, Ryan are all givens.

DataNerd · October 3

Kremer is 100%. We gave up a legit prospect for him, and he's been a league-average pitcher for pretty much his entire career.

The Larnach hate here is ridiculous. He ranked 41st in wRC+ against RHP for all hitters with at least 200PA against them, better than anybody except Buxton on the team. Trading him for some value is a solid option, but I would be shocked if he got non-tendered.

Sands will likely tell us how the team feels about his arm health. He was really good in 24 and decent in 25, and is only 29 with 2 years left. At 1.1M, it's probably worth it to give it to him and gamble that the velo comes back, and if it doesn't it's not much of a $ loss.

jmlease1 · October 3

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

1. I think the Twins pick up Ryan's option. Why cause bitterness and slam the door on an extension over a few million bucks. And he may get the higher amount from an arbitrator anyway.

This is a joke, right? He's not signing an extension unless he changes his agent, so that's out the window already. You want to burn additional payroll space as a giveaway, because we're not getting anything more for it. You think he's getting more in arbitration after an injury-filled second half where he struggled mightily (again)? The projections are usually pretty on-target; what are the odds that Ryan would even file at over $12M after his season?

There's going to be faux bitterness for any player that actually goes to arbitration, because pride gets in the way. Even though the current arbitration system itself guarantees raises for the players, regardless of their actual performance on the field they still all get mad about it.

Additionally, you see pride in the way if you non-tender a player; it's really hard to re-sign that player after that, even if you're offering the same or more money than might be available in FA because pride gets in the way and they're insulted that they were non-tendered in the first place. But mid-market and small market teams can't get caught up in that or they end up overcommitting to players.

AceWrigley · October 3

This is kinda funny but the most similar batter on BBref to Royce Lewis is Matt LeCroy.

I'm not sure anyone ever penciled in Matt LeCroy as a starter for any position.

S Bart · October 3

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

If Royce Lewis accepted coaching would he be a better hitter?

Fyi...he supposedly worked in detail with a hitting coach last off season....did not help him.

DJL44 · October 3

39 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

Banda won't be back until mid season at best, so cut bait and try for a minor league deal.

Really? I didn’t think a torn lat meant a whole year to recover.

DannySD · October 3

Kremer 100%. Banda 80%. Lewis 20%.

MeleMouth · October 3

The trade - or free agency - market for Royce Lewis will be warm and as a turnaround play he could probably get more, perhaps much more, than the $7 million the Twins paid Bell this year, depending on whether teams think he would be OK in their locker room. It might also be easier for another team to give him the hard talk that he needs that he's not a superstar and needs to do a few things differently to stay in the majors, kind of like how Billy Beane spoke to David Justice in the Moneyball movie.

Even if the Twins don't want to keep Lewis, it would be a good financial gamble to sign him for the indicated contract, then try to trade him. The downside is he plays another year of mediocre ball.

After seeing the smug grinning picture of Royce and Pohlad too many times, however, I doubt the Twins are able to face hard truths like Billy Beane, much less tell them to players.

IndianaTwin · October 3

44 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

Banda won't be back until mid season at best, so cut bait and try for a minor league deal.

Go for a below expected deal for Ober, say $5M. Never hurts to have extra starters around as we well know.

Minor league deal for Sands high enough so he can be moved up and down from the roster next year without being claimed.

Lewis should get a deal, but then trade him and bring in a better player at 1B.

Nance is worth keeping around as low end bullpen.

Make every effort to trade Larnach, including as a throw in on a bigger deal. But do it before the arbitration deadline, or cut him lose and Thank him for his service.

Clemens, Bradley, Kremer, Ryan are all givens.

Where do you see July on Banda? What I’ve seen has said he’s expected back by the beginning of spring training. It would take quite a delay to push all the way back to July.

Unless he’s known to out for a major part of the season, I think he’s a no-brainer. They aren’t going to get a free agent of his caliber at $2.3 million.

Huskerboy2 · October 3

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I would non-tender Banda, Ober, Larnach and Lewis. Each will go to another team and have brief flashes of success and some brief flashes of failures, and we will have to read posts saying, "We should have kept him", but Lewis and Larnach have had multiple chances and are owed too much in arbitration at their respective positions, to justify another season with the Twins. Plus it will be a message to the other Twin players. That message is: "Veterans who have been given multiple opportunities, but who can't play defense, must produce offensively at a very high rate, (i.e. Keaschall) or move on." Banda and Ober, while potentially in 2027, need to step aside for higher ceiling, more talented and younger pitchers with more potential. For every Brent Rooker, there are a dozen Dave McCarty's and Anthony Slama's. That's the nature of professional baseball.

love the Anthony Slama shout out. My candidate for the TD most over-hyped bust in recent years.

IndianaTwin · October 3

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

…Banda depends on whether you can resign Minter.

I am guessing MLB will have to get about a $120 minimum payroll just to get labor piece, don't see how owners will get a salary cap unless they are willing to lose all of next year.

I’ll start by saying I’d love to see them re-sign Minter at a good price.

But they have to make a decision on Banda well before a lot of the free agents sign. Admittedly, the lockout may change the calendar of deals this year.

But even comparing the two, note that Minter was getting $11 million this year. He might go for less, but I doubt it’s a lot less. If drops to even $8M, I’d still take Banda at $2.3M.

As noted in my response to a different post, I think Banda is a no-brainer at that price. Aside from an eight-day period in April, he was one of their best relievers before he went down.

But still sign Minter.

Shaitan · October 3

I just hope they actually have a steady FO now, or plan for one.

The offseason of trying to sell the team, followed by the last second Falvey change set this team back.

terrydactyls · October 3

There are a lot of comments above saying to just trade a player for something of value to your team. That's a great plan. Too bad other teams have to be involved in these trades. Why would a team give up someone of value to the Twins for someone perceived as not worth spending an arbitrary amount on (pun intended). Two teams (or more in a few cases) must reach an agreement on value given up versus value received. That's a difficult achievement to reach when discussing what are essentially Thanksgiving meal leftovers.

mnfireman · October 3

25 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

There are a lot of comments above saying to just trade a player for something of value to your team. That's a great plan. Too bad other teams have to be involved in these trades. Why would a team give up someone of value to the Twins for someone perceived as not worth spending an arbitrary amount on (pun intended). Two teams (or more in a few cases) must reach an agreement on value given up versus value received. That's a difficult achievement to reach when discussing what are essentially Thanksgiving meal leftovers.

Agreed....0+0=0.

The only way to get value (or prospect value) for a player with no value is to bundle them with a player that has value, which hurts the team immediately, with no guarantee of future success.

SE23 · October 3

Goodbye to Larnach, Lewis, Bell, Martin and Jeffers, and best wishes!

C - Kelly, Caratini

1B - Roden, Keaschall, Clemens (UT)

2B - Edwards, Clemens (UT)

SS - Culpepper, Edwards

3B - Lee, Clemens (UT)

LF - Keaschall, ERod, Clemens (UT)

CF - Buck, Jenkins

RF - Jenkins, ERod, Roden

DH - Yandy Diaz

Mike Sixel · October 3

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I sign them all for the total of $45.5M. ……..10 guys that are all roster worthy, IMO.

Buxton - Lopez - Hoffman - Caratini will make roughly $58M between them.

That’s $104M ……… 11 guys at $900K minimum salary & the total spen is $114M.

There ZERO reason to think the Team Organization can’t afford or needs to trim payroll.

This assumes correct 25 …….plus a handful of other young guys at $500K for the year, plus Correa’s $10M brings total to $125M.

The spending budget should be $140M at a minimum. Can sign all these guys as insurance and then trade, as preferred, after labor negotiations.

If a new FLOOR is established ……. there was talk mid-summer of $175M being the bottom end mandatory spend…….probably doesn’t take place immediately but $110M can’t be the budget goal!!

You want to bring back the team that can't win? I do not understand this at all..

Mike Sixel · October 3

59 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

I just hope they actually have a steady FO now, or plan for one.

The offseason of trying to sell the team, followed by the last second Falvey change set this team back.

Nah. The owner thinking they could draw fans by "trying to win" set them back.

D.C Twins · October 3

22 minutes ago, SE23 said:

Goodbye to Larnach, Lewis, Bell, Martin and Jeffers, and best wishes!

C - Kelly, Caratini

1B - Roden, Keaschall, Clemens (UT)

2B - Edwards, Clemens (UT)

SS - Culpepper, Edwards

3B - Lee, Clemens (UT)

LF - Keaschall, ERod, Clemens (UT)

CF - Buck, Jenkins

RF - Jenkins, ERod, Roden

DH - Yandy Diaz

Like the thinking here. And if TP actions match is bluster, pay Jeffers (Caratini is the problem here obviously)

(Narrator's voice) TP's actions will not match his bluster...

Major League Ready · October 3

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's a really simple perspective. How are you going to upgrade that roster spot? Free agents will cost more for less value. They can replace Larnach with prospects but they don't have enough depth anywhere else to let players go for nothing.

How much excess value do any of those players have? What would Lewis, Larnach, or Sands bring in trade? Not much. They could keep Lewis and still open his roster spot by making Lewis a utility player.

They need to upgrade some positions. Running the same failed players out there and expecting a different result is not a good plan. We would be in much better shape had they accepted this reality last off-season.

MeleMouth · October 3

41 minutes ago, SE23 said:

Goodbye to Larnach, Lewis, Bell, Martin and Jeffers, and best wishes!

C - Kelly, Caratini

1B - Roden, Keaschall, Clemens (UT)

2B - Edwards, Clemens (UT)

SS - Culpepper, Edwards

3B - Lee, Clemens (UT)

LF - Keaschall, ERod, Clemens (UT)

CF - Buck, Jenkins

RF - Jenkins, ERod, Roden

DH - Yandy Diaz

The Rays have a $10 million option on Yandy Diaz for 2027. How would the Twins get him?

What do you think it would take to get Kelly? I'm assuming it will be a lot more than the 3 years, $10 million per that Vazquez got in 2023.

And how would you get Edwards? It would probably take Marek Houston or even Culpepper plus a lot more.

LyleCole · October 3

Ryan, Clemens, and Bradley are 100%.

Then I think they have a couple of either or decisions to make:

Kremer or Ober which I put at Kremer 80% and 20% they tender both.

Lewis or Larnach: I think Lewis 80% with 10% they tender both.

At a low cost, Tommy Nance is closer to 100% than he is to 0%.

Cole Sands and Anthony Banda are very close to 0%.

Rod Carews Birthday · October 3

You can’t expect to improve unless we find better players. Keeping everyone around because it makes us feel good or because we like them is a bad idea.
Ober is no longer an mlb starter and would be a very expensive experiment in the bullpen. Larnach is an averagish player in an outfield with many better choices. Lewis isn’t a starting level first baseman and doesn’t appear to have the right mindset to be a utility player. The problem with tendering these guys with the plan of trading them is that their value is mighty low.

Kremer seems worthy of a fifth starter spot and can provide stability there. Sands and Nance are cheap enough to put in the bullpen mix next spring. Ryan, Clemens, and Bradley are no brainers. The only significant tough call is Banda. He’s lefthanded and seemingly decent, but he’s not cheap and coming off an injury. I probably keep him and hope for the best.

DJL44 · October 3

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How much excess value do any of those players have? What would Lewis, Larnach, or Sands bring in trade? Not much. They could keep Lewis and still open his roster spot by making Lewis a utility player.

They need to upgrade some positions. Running the same failed players out there and expecting a different result is not a good plan. We would be in much better shape had they accepted this reality last off-season.

I’m fine with trading Larnach for a 40FV A-ball prospect like Fragoza.

Sands still has an option. They can stash him in AAA or cut him in the spring if they find an upgrade.

I think Lewis would be an adequate utility player, but if another team wants him for 3B I would trade him.

The other interesting thing about arbitration is which players might be available on other teams.

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