Stauffer DFA'd. Tonkin Recalled. We Don't Know What We Don't Know

According to Len3, "The Twins have 10 days to trade him, release him or send him to the minors."

I'm very curious to see what management does.  I can't see keeping Stauffer in the minors [potentially backing up the progress of younger pitchers with higher expectations], or trading Stauffer [are there truely THAT many suckers in the MLB world?].  If they release him, I'm assuming the Twins would still owe him the money.  That out be an incredible turn around for Twins ownership.  And I highly endorse it!

The Twins think they need 13 pitchers because they never ever use more than 10 position players in a game, and usually it really is just 9.

Of course Shane Robinson is back to his usual terribleness, so the fact that they don't pinch hit for him by his third at bat is a problem.

Anyway, this is good. Stauffer has nothing left. He is probably best off not playing anywhere at all the rest of the year and then come back somewhere next year on a minor league dealing to see if some arm rest has helped that velocity problem.

Good point Nick.

He wasn't all that good last year. They have lots of young arms, but signed him. It was inexplicable then.

That is exactly it.  Why did we sign him in the first place when we have guys that have better stuff in AAA (Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter), with Budi, Reed, and potentially Chargois behind them.  The even bigger question is why did we structure his contract the way we did?  He was guaranteed $2.2M, then $250K bonuses started at his 15th appearance.  If he ended with 55 appearances he would have made $3.95M, just $700K less than Glen Perkins.

So the range of outcomes were as follows:

1- He was no good and cut before his 15th appearance, which is what happened.  He was at 13 appearances and warming up in the 9th last night but Graham got the last guy out.  In this scenario we paid him $170K per outing.  For a sake of reference, if Glen makes 65 appearances at his $4.65M it will work out to just $71K per appearance.

2- The second outcome is he pitches well enough to stick with the team and hit his 55th appearance.  You have now given him the same amount of money roughly as an all star closer.

What is it about his career 3.94 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, or 6.7 K per BB led us to think either of these outcomes was a good risk/reward?

I also see an irrational soft spot for older reclamation guys no one else wants. (Not that I consider anyone in their 30's old.) It's a nice personal quality but a huge problem for someone in Terry Ryan's position trying to field a competitive MLB team.

I need x amount of veterans to start the year.  Standard operation, especially in the pen and rotation.

All for Stauffer's DFAing but:

 

 

 

 

"Superior" and "Tonkin" (of 7.74 FIP and 1.500 WHIP with.261 BABIP) do not belong in the same sentence.     For reference, Stauffer had a 7.17 FIP and a 2.057 WHIP (but with a .357 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been Staufferesque this season in the majors.  Hope he finds what is working for him in Rochester

Both Tonkin and Stauffer have been in AAA too.  Tonkin sports a 1.54 ERA and .168 BA against there (16 K in 11 IP).

Stauffer was somehow promoted back to the Twins after 5 IP of 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and  K in 5 IP

All for Stauffer's DFAing but:

 

 

 

 

"Superior" and "Tonkin" (of 7.74 FIP and 1.500 WHIP with.261 BABIP) do not belong in the same sentence.     For reference, Stauffer had a 7.17 FIP and a 2.057 WHIP (but with a .357 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been Staufferesque this season in the majors.  Hope he finds what is working for him in Rochester

I'm not exactly enamored with Tonkin (would rather see Lester or AJ get a shot)...won't consider Meyer for now as I think he needs a confidence boost... but I'd rather see Tonkin in an extended role than Stauffer, at least Tonkin shows potential.

I agree with others that have said why sign Stauffer in the first place; I also think the Twins gave him a fair shot in those 13 appearances to prove his value (or lack thereof) to the team.

Once he was signed, it was worth taking the time to figure out if he had some value or not.

He may find a better fit in the National League after his release (I don't think there should be room for him in AAA).

Great!  Now what am I going to do with my Stauffer jersey!

Great!  Now what am I going to do with my Stauffer jersey!

Add it to the Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz pile?

I need x amount of veterans to start the year.  Standard operation, especially in the pen and rotation.

To me, Stauffer was a necessary risk that didn't work out.  Everyone saw how our bull pen collapsed last year.  Everyone pointed to the pen as a weakness going into the year.  We had to do something, and Stauffer was coming off an ok year.  Similar to the Jered Burton signing in my eyes.  Just didn't work out.

I do not perceive lack of trust in young players to be a huge problem.  We relied on Hicks for like 3 years now, and each year he's screwed us to some extent.  This year was less because Robinson put together a decent first month.  Danny Santana screwed us.  Vargas and Arcia have screwed us.  Imagine if we hadn't signed Torii Hunter.  I think it's a bigger mistake to trust AAA success over a Major League track record.  But here's the thing, you can have both IF you take the risk and bring in some vets.  You can always replace them with young guys if they warrant the call or the veteran falters.  Out of our FA signings, Hunter has worked out, Nunez has contributed, and Robinson has contributed.  Stauffer did not.  Santana hasn't played.  

Meanwhile, Pinto has flopped, Santana has flopped, Buxton and Sano aren't ready.  Burdi has imploded.  Reed hasn't been much better.  Arcia, Vargas, Walker and Hicks seems stuck in a state of arrested development.  It's as Ann as the nose on Plain's face, organizational depth requires some Stauffers.  
 

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance.  Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

Could you provide specifics on that much larger problem, and how it is going to be exasperated going forward?

To me, Stauffer was a necessary risk that didn't work out.  Everyone saw how our bull pen collapsed last year.  Everyone pointed to the pen as a weakness going into the year.  We had to do something, and Stauffer was coming off an ok year.  Similar to the Jered Burton signing in my eyes.  Just didn't work out.

I do not perceive lack of trust in young players to be a huge problem.  We relied on Hicks for like 3 years now, and each year he's screwed us to some extent.  This year was less because Robinson put together a decent first month.  Danny Santana screwed us.  Vargas and Arcia have screwed us.  Imagine if we hadn't signed Torii Hunter.  I think it's a bigger mistake to trust AAA success over a Major League track record.  But here's the thing, you can have both IF you take the risk and bring in some vets.  You can always replace them with young guys if they warrant the call or the veteran falters.  Out of our FA signings, Hunter has worked out, Nunez has contributed, and Robinson has contributed.  Stauffer did not.  Santana hasn't played.  

Meanwhile, Pinto has flopped, Santana has flopped, Buxton and Sano aren't ready.  Burdi has imploded.  Reed hasn't been much better.  Arcia, Vargas, Walker and Hicks seems stuck in a state of arrested development.  It's as Ann as the nose on Plain's face, organizational depth requires some Stauffers.  
 

He has not had an ERA+ of over 97 since 2010. i.e. he was not even league average the four prior years before we signed him.

So we gave a guy that was not league average a deal that almost guaranteed him to be the highest paid reliever on thi team on a per inning basis.  So the risk/reward here made absolutely no sense at all.

He was no more likely to put up better numbers than Oliveros, Tonkin, or Achter.

Burdi' overall ERA is no good (4.44), but he has basically done the same thing he did last year.  Have a few really bad outings out of the gate (1.2 IP and 4 ER, 6 BB), then been very good (24.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 26 K, 10 BB).  And gotten better as the year has gone on. In his last 10 he has gone (17 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21 K and only 4 BB).

I would like to second the notion that, while Stauffer was essentially useless, Tonkin needs to be a whole lot better than he has been.  Opportunities for him haven't been the problem - he really hasn't pitched that well.

So the only real difference we know for sure is that Tonkin is younger.  Better or more talented remains to be seen.

It would be totally ridiculous to keep Tonkin at AAA. He has to get the real extended look with the Twins for the rest of the year so they can wrap up his case one way or the other.

No onto Lester Oliveros . . .