Sonny Gray's Criticism of Last Year's Rotation Shows How Far We've Come

Last year their rotation was mostly terrible. If you're the manager and your starting pitchers stink, it would seem you'd enact a strategy to limit their innings. It didn't work, but it almost did. Remember the Twins were in 1st place for 100 (or so) days? They didn't have to be great. They only had to be better than the Guardians. They were obviously not built to go deep into the playoffs, but they worked with what they had and almost made it there. 

This year they have a similar problem. They have great pitching and defense (on paper) but their offense stinks. There's not much they can do about it now but work to their strengths. I'm excited to see how it goes. 

1 hour ago, BsuNemo said:

even though they won't admit their mistakes from last year, management has learned from them.

I agree they've learned from the issues experienced last year, but I'm not sure you're right that they've not admitted it.

I'd say they're moves including trading for Malhe at least year's deadline equate to a tacit admission of those mistakes, even if not explicitly stated to the media.

Rocco isn't going to throw the front office under the bus, not should he.

Beyond showing through their actions that mistakes were made, I'm not sure what more one could reasonably ask for...

You're not going to find many people in any industry that come out and say, "We completely screwed the pooch last year and we're sorry."

Not saying it wouldn't be nice or cathartic for the fans, but also seems like a good way to undermine trust, regardless of the organization or industry.

Your comment that the Twins starting staff in 2022 was somehow plagued by their short term status does ring true.  But who put that staff together last year?  Our Front Office of course.  You knew going in last year that our starting staff was very sub par plus the FO didn't see the need to upgrade the bullpen in 2022.  If you are going to only use starters for 5 or even 6 innings you better have a shut down bullpen.  Not sure what to expect this year.  The bullpen seems average to maybe slightly above average.  There is definitely a couple there that shouldn't be on the team.  But their "stuff is good" even if the results aren't.  Remember many times this FO has said it's about the process and not the results.  If their goal is to stick with the plan, win ing be damned, then I'm afraid we are in for another season of disappointment.  Why isn't this front office held accountable?

44 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The baseball season is over six months long.  That's about 190 days.  If a starter can't pitch the equivalent of one inning a day, then something is terribly wrong with baseball.  A seven inning start should be the goal for every starting pitcher and also for their manager.

Baseball isn't baseball unless you pitch a complete game every third day... sorry 1920

Baseball isn't baseball unless you pitch a complete game every 4th day... sorry 1950

Baseball isn't baseball unless you pitch a complete game every 5th day... sorry 1990

Baseball isn't baseball unless your starter goes 7 innings... sorry 2010

The game changes and evolves.  The goal for every manger should be to win.  The goal for every pitcher is to do what they tell you to do in an effort to win.  If that means you go 5 innings, you go 5 innings.

SP pitchers want to pitch more innings because SP that pitch a lot of innings get paid more.

9 hours ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

This "Bundy and Archer wrecked the 2022 rotation" narrative has been an interesting development to watch since the end of last season.

Bundy was the only pitcher the Twins allowed to face a lineup three full times through the order (i.e. 27 or more batters). He did this twice last season, in fact. So he gave the team the two lengthiest starts in terms of batters faced last year.

Archer had seven starts last year where he went 4 innings and had given up two or less hits. In six of those seven starts he gave up one or zero runs, and the other he allowed 2 runs. One of those starts he walked 6 and threw 90 pitches (his season high), but in the others he didn't top 80 pitches in any of those outings. One start he threw 63 pitches, another 62. He never faced more than 20 batters in a start and in four of these seven stellar starts he wasn't even allowed to face the lineup two full times through. Archer wasn't the most aesthetically pleasing pitcher to watch, but it's clear they didn't trust him at all, even when he was performing well. Seems like their philosophy of being deathly afraid of having a pitcher face a lineup a third time definitely ruled the day when it came to intentionally limiting his innings pitched. 

Not saying these guys were great or even good, but 1) they weren't awful and 2) the Twins absolutely used quick, needless hooks, particularly with Archer. What wrecked them from a pitching standpoint was a systematic approach of refusing to let starters face a lineup three times through which forced them into over-relying on a bad bullpen. Bundy and Archer were just two cogs in that system. 

I expect the starters to go a *little* deeper because I think they realized their foolishness in being so slavish to the math last year. I hope at least. But I don't expect six inning starts to be the norm for anyone. I think Maeda's closer to being toast than being a workhorse. For all the hype that Ober gets, he's never been allowed to crack 80 pitches a start at any level in this organization. I'll take the under on Lopez hitting 180 innings again. I'd actually bet the under on anyone on the staff qualifying for the ERA title (meaning 162 innings). But hey, I'd love to be wrong. 

This is absolutely brilliant and shocking to me becasue it runs counter to all the spin I hear.  So I predict this will just be ignored by all the stat guys and true believers here because it doesn't fit the preferred narrative,  But facts matter!  Thanks for not accepting the conventional wisdom and daring to actually do research and come to your own conclusions.

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They were objectively terrible. Sort starting pitching rankings, then go to near the last page.... That's where you'll find them. 

You should read the OP's comment.  Plenty of data and stats cited.  Sorry if they don't fit your narrative.

My hope is that the Bald Man is more experienced now and won't rely completely on stats when he sees a starter performing strong right in front of his eyes. It's clearly a better starting staff. Maeda, if he performs, will get the hook early, of course, since he's returning from major surgery. The others should be rendered unto Caesar what Caesar deserves on a start-by-start basis. If they pitch rich, let them go six. Or seven. If they lose the tune, send them into the back room for a shower or a cold bath. Or something to get them back into tune. We also have young whippersnappers waiting in the wings with the Saints. I like what I see. Of course, right now, we're 0-0, so what's not to like?

8 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Go back to last ST and read what Falvey or Baldelli said about Archer. He was getting older, and with a shorter ST due to the lockout they were going to start him off slowly and ramp up his workload as time went by and he got stronger. So the were bs ing us all along because that never happened.  And reading what Gray had to say in this article, thats pretty much what Archer expected every outing.

It's pretty cynical to say they were BSing. Perhaps they thought they could ramp him up as he was further removed from his worst injury days. The plan failed, obviously, but I don't know what evidence there is they were deceiving us. In hindsight I'm sure they'd have gone after a similar, ageing and injured starter, Johnny Cueto instead if possible. 

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Talent-wise they are definitely in a much better place. Whether that translates to results remains to be seen. But on paper this rotation is night-and-day compared to last year at this time. 

It's also night and day to any Twins pitching staff for at least the last 45 years.

1 hour ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I

You're not going to find many people in any industry that come out and say, "We completely screwed the pooch last year and we're sorry."

 

I believe there are laws that protect the identity of the pooch under these circumstances, and in any case I'd rather that discussions of this kind of behavior be kept out of press conferences as much as possible.

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Welcome to Twins Daily!

I will note that many of us who speak on Bundy and Archer's short starts have done research and drawn our own conclusions on facts. Like the facts of Archer's performance in the 5th inning last year. He went into the 5th in 40% of his starts last year and had an ERA over 11 in the 5th. Gave up an OPS against over .850. He was terrible when they let him try to do it so they limited how often they let him do it.

Great to be here, thanks!  Yeah I'm not saying Bundy and Archer were good, yeesh.  I don't think it's accurate to say he was terrible when they let him, as the OP showed they didn't let him go longer in several starts where he was cruising.  It's possible that both things can be true - Bundy and Archer aren't good pitchers, and the Twins FO & manager implemented a failed strategy on managing the pitching staff last year.  The funny thing is, even the FO is acknowledging both points - not explicity, of course, this FO isn't one for self-criticism - but not going into a 3rd straight season with Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ types in the rotation says all you need to know!  Yet some folks just need to defend the indefensible I guess.  Oh well.  Go Twins!