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  • Don't be Desperate with Royce Lewis


    Hans Birkeland

    When you see the fans' hivemind coalescing around something, it pays to be extra cautious.

    Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

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    Front offices have jobs to do. Whether the fanbase likes whatever moves they make is secondary to them putting a winning product on the field, barring a rebuild.

    But in recent years it seems like front offices are succumbing to some combination of their own impulses and fanbase pressure and making rash (but popular) moves. Whenever a fanbase is clamoring for a young, exciting player, it seems like they are making their debuts within weeks. Look at uber-prospects Anthony Volpe of the Yankees , Eury Perez of the Marlins, or Jordan Walker of the Cardinals. Of those, only Volpe had any Triple-A experience prior to his call-up, and he didn’t do well there in 99 at-bats. None of them have been great in the big leagues, as of yet.

    These impulsive (or desperate) moves can manifest in other ways, as well. I wrote on this site that when Alex Kirilloff finished his rehab assignment, he would be optioned to Triple A. That happened, but for less than a week. After seeing Trevor Larnach struggle for, let's be honest, one series, the Twins optioned him in favor of Kirilloff, despite him having rarely played back-to-back days in the minors recovering from his wrist injury.

    Didn’t that work out? Well, he is hitting well. Would it have helped if he had gradually worked his way into playing more back-to-back games before being recalled, from a long term, wrist-health perspective? We may never know. And that’s what I question. The easy answer was to call him up ASAP. The hard answer isn’t worth answering because it's unknowable. Restraint is boring, unsexy and impossible to evaluate in hindsight. We don’t pay much attention to a bridge that doesn’t collapse.

    In related news, the Tyler Mahle trade was a disaster. We got nine starts out of the guy while Christian Encarnacion-Strand is lighting Triple-A on fire and Spencer Steer is settling in as a solid regular for the Reds. But was the front office impulsive in making the move? Mahle had just missed time with an injured shoulder and the Twins rotation was a mess at the time, despite being in first place. Was there an element of “f- it, let’s go for it, it's what the fans want anyway”?

    Maybe. Maybe not. I loved the trade at the time, and so did you. But that wasn’t because it was a smart trade. We loved it because Mahle was the best deadline acquisition starting pitcher in Twins history, unless you’re a rabid Rick Reed fan.

    In that context, it's easy to push the danger signs, like Mahle’s shoulder, to the background. It's like being a kid waiting for Christmas in 2001 and hoping for the latest Crash Bandicoot game. But then everyone in your fifth grade class said it's the worst game ever and what follows is a brief time period where you kind’ve hoped you didn’t get the game so that you didn’t go through the pain of seeing it suck. However, when you saw it under the tree the next morning, all that doubt went out the window because now it's yours and two days ago it was all you ever hoped for (I’m of course referring to Crash Bandicoot: The Wrath of Cortex).

    On August first, Mahle was an injury risk. On August second, he was the key to our impending playoff success. Fifteen days later, he was injured.

    Which is why I’m always skeptical when the front office does exactly what the fan hivemind wants it to do. They make plenty of mistakes, but on the whole have more information, more experience, and they have more at stake than you. Their jobs are more important than your vibes, generally.

    We can’t know how much fan pressure impacts decision making, but when Aaron Hicks was hitting leadoff on opening day for the 2013 Twins, I got a little pit in my stomach like, “Oh God, they listened to us.” It happened again with signing Logan Morrison and Addison Reed, along with starting Randy Dobnak in game two of the ALDS in 2019.

    That brings me to Royce Lewis. He is eligible to return to the Twins on June 1st, and fans are already clamoring for his immediate return. The man has played 48 games total over the past four years, is recovering from a second torn ACL, and has twelve games of major league experience. We have no idea what he’ll be at this point. What we do know is that the last time he was both good and healthy was in A-Ball as a nineteen-year-old, five years ago.

    I can feel the seething, impulsive bloodlust that wants the 2017 first overall pick starting at third base in two weeks. It is a festering, bile-spitting demon that lurks in the back of all of our minds like a child that can’t handle watching other kids open presents on their birthday without getting a present of their own. It projects the image of Lewis hitting that game-breaking grand slam against Cleveland for his first big-league home run over and over like a Soviet propaganda film.

    It’s in Derek Falvey’s mind, and it’s in my mind, too. I can picture the lineup he lengthens: The postseason pedigree of Correa, the power/speed combo of Buxton, the reliability of Polanco and the line-to-line authority Kirilloff hits with coalesced around the “aw shucks” ultra-dynamism of a fully formed Lewis.

    But none of that is real if Lewis isn’t ready (and the injury gods don’t smile upon us).

    Whenever I’m not sure whether I’ve shown enough restraint in my life, I just try to picture what legendary cartoon dad and king of measured approaches, Hank Hill, would say. Thanks to OpenAI, we can ask him about calling up Royce Lewis:

    “You see, bringing up a young player too soon can be detrimental to their development. They need the opportunity to face different levels of competition, learn from experienced players, and mature both physically and mentally. It's like letting a steak rest after grilling so that the juices can redistribute and the flavors can fully develop.

    So, my advice would be to evaluate Royce Lewis's performance in the minors, consider his readiness both on and off the field, and make a decision based on what's best for his long-term development. Just like grilling a steak to perfection, you want to ensure that all the elements are in place before you serve it up.”

    That’s the unexciting, non-appeasing, wet blanket logic we need. Lewis will be ready when he’s ready. It could be June 1st or August 1st. As fans, it's our right to be excited and push to see him as soon as humanly possible. As a front office, the Twins need to ignore everything we say and make sure he is ready for production, and not rushed like a certain Playstation 2 game that ruined my winter break those many moons ago.

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    I'll start by saying that I disagree with the notion that the FO is paying much attention at all to the "fan hivemind." I think that's a false narrative with next to no evidence at all. Would the fans have had Buxton DHing all year? Would they have Pagan on the roster? Would they have traded Arraez? I don't think the FO cares at all about the fans opinions. As they shouldn't. Well maybe a little, but they certainly don't care anymore than they should.

    That being said, put Royce Lewis in CF (or 3B if you really think Farmer on the bench is smarter than Taylor/Castro), and the leadoff spot, the second he's eligible (May 29th I believe). The last time he was both good, and healthy, was last season when he destroyed AAA, and more than held his own in the majors. He's currently destroying AAA now. If he does it for this next series in St Paul there's no reason he shouldn't be called up a week from today. A torn ACL is an acute injury, not a chronic one. He wasn't playing injured last year (like Buxton apparently at all times), he got injured. Royce isn't injured now. He's healed. As @mikelink45 suggested, the odds of him getting hurt at Target Field aren't any greater than him playing at CHS Field. He's performed not only in AAA, but the Majors. Suggesting he hasn't been good in 5 years is ignoring a whole lot. Royce is ready. He's shown he's ready. Put him in the majors.

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    29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I'll start by saying that I disagree with the notion that the FO is paying much attention at all to the "fan hivemind." I think that's a false narrative with next to no evidence at all. Would the fans have had Buxton DHing all year? Would they have Pagan on the roster? Would they have traded Arraez? I don't think the FO cares at all about the fans opinions. As they shouldn't. Well maybe a little, but they certainly don't care anymore than they should.

    I think its more a matter of, are they thinking like fans who have nothing at stake, or like a smart front office that prioritizes the long view. They've done a little of both, and I think Pagan is a good example of them liking a guy as a fifth reliever and sticking with him despite our pitchforks.

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    3 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

    I think its more a matter of, are they thinking like fans who have nothing at stake, or like a smart front office that prioritizes the long view. They've done a little of both, and I think Pagan is a good example of them liking a guy as a fifth reliever and sticking with him despite our pitchforks.

    I'd say Pagan is a bad example of them liking a guy despite our pitchforks.

     

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    This was a good and healthy time. 

    image.png.1277e706874788b0696db170d06942cd.png

     

    If he's healthy, he comes up immediately.  I'm want him at 3rd full time and I'll get to my reasons shortly.  He's a 1-1 talent who is playing well on rehab and showing no effects of the injury.  He's a building block of the franchise whether he/we like it or not.  Much like Kirilloff, he has the prospect and talent capital that moves him to the front of the line barring injury.  He has nothing to prove in the minors and the big club needs the exact help he can give.

    I'm not a scout but I have been watching his minor league at bats.  He looks comfortable and confident, both at the plate and running.  He is taking pitches very calmly, like he is seeing it well.  How he adjusts to the big league pitchers adjusting to him is the next question to be answered and that happens in the big leagues. 

    Now, the word of caution.  As mentioned, the 48 games over 4 years means he will have some heavy adjusting to do.  He will absolutely have a Miranda period.  Do NOT be surprised if he has a 6 week period with .650 or less OPS.  Along with freeing up Farmer this is the main reason for setting and forgetting at 3rd base.  He needs to be in comfortable positions when possible as we can't have defensive confusion spilling into what are sure to be some offensive struggles.  I'm fine hitting him leadoff as long as he's taking good at bats but don't be disappointed if he spends time in the 8/9 hole.  Its part of the process.  Get him up here and get it started.

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    12 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

    I think its more a matter of, are they thinking like fans who have nothing at stake, or like a smart front office that prioritizes the long view. They've done a little of both, and I think Pagan is a good example of them liking a guy as a fifth reliever and sticking with him despite our pitchforks.

    Prioritizing the long view isn't automatically what a smart front office does. It's absolutely a part of things, and, as I've said many times on these boards, the FO doesn't have the luxury to live in just the now. But there's a balance between the long view, and the short view. A FO that puts too much weight on the long view gets themselves fired just as much as the FO that prioritizes the short view. TR and his crew got themselves fired, in part, because they put too much emphasis on the long view, and let the short view go to crap for too long. This FO seems willing to take calculated risks on the short view without doing too much damage to the long view (like trading Steer and CES when they're full of corner, bat first prospects in the high minors and needed a starter).

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    I can agree fan sentiment is fickle.  I over-react all the time.  I let my emotions cloud my judgement because I am a fan and free to feel the painful or joyous moments the game provides and comment on them.  The FO cannot afford such a free feeling state.  They generally are using cold hard numbers, track record, and sometimes a feel for recovery from injury to make there decisions.  As most of us know no FO makes quick decisions on players as baseball can be a game of slumps, injuries and psychology. The trick is to determine when a player is at the end of their production or needs more time to get back to the player they were.

    Hicks with the Yankee's is a prime example.  HIs production has been poor enough for long enough that they just let him go even though they still owe him money.  

    I do think the the Trades for Paddack and Mahle were risky knowing the arm concerns for both players but in Mahle's case maybe desperation played into it.  The Twins had no chance to recover without better starting pitching and he was likely the only affordable pitcher with fairly high upside they could get for the spare pieces they were willing to offer.  His arm was a problem early in the season and he had recovered from it so maybe they thought he could tough it out?  Hard to say and maybe fan sentiment played a role in applying pressure but as stated above it seems unlikely.  The FO has to make sound decisions or they lose their jobs. It was more risk than they should have taken on so maybe a mistake but hindsight is 20/20.

     

    Fans often identify problem trends and or player performance but it usually takes a much longer time before the FO acts on most of that information.  All clubs have certain ways of operating and I doubt the FO puts fan opinion on a level that would over-ride their processes and procedures.  Fans might create some pressure but if the FO is any good they won't cave to the every emotion of roller coaster fans.

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    While a front office should be in tune with the fan base (they are the one's buying tickets and merchandise), personnel decisions should not be made based on comments on social media. Baseball is too cyclical, players have terrible stretches followed by hot stretches, to base decisions on fanbase (over)reactions. 

    As far as Pagan is concerned, if the team had received a viable trade offer, I believe they would have pulled the trigger. Just because rumors state that a player is in other teams radars because of peripherals, doesn't mean that an offer, or at least a reasonable offer, was tendered. And let's be real here, he never stood a chance here because of the fanbase's love for Rogers (who once again is performing terribly). Pagan's numbers (results and peripheral) are the same or better than Jax's numbers and the fanbase loves Jax.

    I believe we will see Lewis in early June when either his performance dictates it or injury forces it. But let's not be too upset when Rocco sticks him in CF again, its going to happen.

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    Lewis has had a grand total of 22 ABs this year between AA and AAA.  He had 150 at AAA last year.  Let's give him 60 or 80 ABs before we judge anything and of course, even that's a SSS.  However, he proved last year he can make the jump.  Get him up here as soon as they believe he is ready.  I hope they start playing him in CF at some point in the relatively near future.  That would allow us to replace a #9 batter with a 2-4 hitter. 

    We still need to get Correa going but adding Lewis and Kirilloff is a much better lineup than we had to start the year.  

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    13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Lewis has had a grand total of 22 ABs this year between AA and AAA.  He had 150 at AAA last year.  Let's give him 60 or 80 ABs before we judge anything and of course, even that's a SSS.  However, he proved last year he can make the jump.  Get him up here as soon as they believe he is ready.  I hope they start playing him in CF at some point in the relatively near future.  That would allow us to replace a #9 batter with a 2-4 hitter. 

    We still need to get Correa going but adding Lewis and Kirilloff is a much better lineup than we had to start the year.  

    I think that its a bit optimistic to think he can replace MAT on a 1 for 1 level much less as an upgrade to middle of the order bat.  It both underestimates how solid MAT has been and overestimates the ability of someone with 40 MLB at bats to dominate.  MAT isn't a world beater but we know we can count on his production.

    I also believe its more valuable to the team to have Farmer moving around the infield 3-4 times a week than MAT being a pinch runner, defensive replacement. 

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    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I'll start by saying that I disagree with the notion that the FO is paying much attention at all to the "fan hivemind." I think that's a false narrative with next to no evidence at all. Would the fans have had Buxton DHing all year? Would they have Pagan on the roster? Would they have traded Arraez? I don't think the FO cares at all about the fans opinions. As they shouldn't. Well maybe a little, but they certainly don't care anymore than they should.

    That being said, put Royce Lewis in CF (or 3B if you really think Farmer on the bench is smarter than Taylor/Castro), and the leadoff spot, the second he's eligible (May 29th I believe). The last time he was both good, and healthy, was last season when he destroyed AAA, and more than held his own in the majors. He's currently destroying AAA now. If he does it for this next series in St Paul there's no reason he shouldn't be called up a week from today. A torn ACL is an acute injury, not a chronic one. He wasn't playing injured last year (like Buxton apparently at all times), he got injured. Royce isn't injured now. He's healed. As @mikelink45 suggested, the odds of him getting hurt at Target Field aren't any greater than him playing at CHS Field. He's performed not only in AAA, but the Majors. Suggesting he hasn't been good in 5 years is ignoring a whole lot. Royce is ready. He's shown he's ready. Put him in the majors.

    100% this. 

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    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I'll start by saying that I disagree with the notion that the FO is paying much attention at all to the "fan hivemind." I think that's a false narrative with next to no evidence at all. Would the fans have had Buxton DHing all year? Would they have Pagan on the roster? Would they have traded Arraez? I don't think the FO cares at all about the fans opinions. As they shouldn't. Well maybe a little, but they certainly don't care anymore than they should.

    That being said, put Royce Lewis in CF (or 3B if you really think Farmer on the bench is smarter than Taylor/Castro), and the leadoff spot, the second he's eligible (May 29th I believe). The last time he was both good, and healthy, was last season when he destroyed AAA, and more than held his own in the majors. He's currently destroying AAA now. If he does it for this next series in St Paul there's no reason he shouldn't be called up a week from today. A torn ACL is an acute injury, not a chronic one. He wasn't playing injured last year (like Buxton apparently at all times), he got injured. Royce isn't injured now. He's healed. As @mikelink45 suggested, the odds of him getting hurt at Target Field aren't any greater than him playing at CHS Field. He's performed not only in AAA, but the Majors. Suggesting he hasn't been good in 5 years is ignoring a whole lot. Royce is ready. He's shown he's ready. Put him in the majors.

    I think the front office should listen to me and me only. 😎

    On Lewis... If he keeps hitting like he is. Straight up to the majors. 

    SS,3B,2B,OF... He can play in any of those 6 positions as far as I'm concerned. When June 1st hits, we will have a better idea on where he should play at that time. 

    We need hitters. Static position or finding playing time at multiple positions are OK with me.   

     

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    28 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

    I think that its a bit optimistic to think he can replace MAT on a 1 for 1 level much less as an upgrade to middle of the order bat.  It both underestimates how solid MAT has been and overestimates the ability of someone with 40 MLB at bats to dominate.  MAT isn't a world beater but we know we can count on his production.

    I also believe its more valuable to the team to have Farmer moving around the infield 3-4 times a week than MAT being a pinch runner, defensive replacement. 

    If Lewis can't replace an 82 OPS+, or 83 wRC+, bat he's not the player we think he is, and we really shouldn't be worrying about where he plays. He definitely shouldn't be replacing anyone at 3B if he's 20% worse than league average with the bat.

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    Just now, Riverbrian said:

    I think the front office should listen to me and me only. 😎

    On Lewis... If he keeps hitting like he is. Straight up to the majors. 

    SS,3B,2B,OF... He can play in any of those 6 positions as far as I'm concerned. When June 1st hits, we will have a better idea on where he should play at that time. 

    We need hitters. Static position or finding playing time at multiple positions are OK with me.   

     

    I've been writing Falvey 1 letter a day for years explaining how smart I am, and that if he'd just do what I say 100% of the time they'd never lose a game. I haven't gotten a reply yet...

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    7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I've been writing Falvey 1 letter a day for years explaining how smart I am, and that if he'd just do what I say 100% of the time they'd never lose a game. I haven't gotten a reply yet...

    It's probably because you are writing letters. 

    The U.S. Postal Service is probably delivering those letters to the parking garage next door. 

     

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    Falvine know that this is not fantasy baseball. Their high-salaried jobs are on the line with each decision they make. Add to that the pride/shame associated with performing at the highest level of their profession and they have a lot at stake. I believe that they absolutely do what they think is best no matter what the fan base wants. Every. Time. But I still hope we get Lewis on the major league roster ASAP.

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    12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I've been writing Falvey 1 letter a day for years explaining how smart I am, and that if he'd just do what I say 100% of the time they'd never lose a game. I haven't gotten a reply yet...

    Let me know if you need some help. I’ve been writing to Jessica Alba for years and get responses all the time from her personal assistant Return-to Sender. Really unique first name! 

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    43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I've been writing Falvey 1 letter a day for years explaining how smart I am, and that if he'd just do what I say 100% of the time they'd never lose a game. I haven't gotten a reply yet...

    I've been sending Falvey 2 emails a day telling him to ignore you. "Dude's using snail mail, ferpetesakes. I mean, come on."

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    13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I've been sending Falvey 2 emails a day telling him to ignore you. "Dude's using snail mail, ferpetesakes. I mean, come on."

    I thought there was less of a chance of my letters getting lost in the shuffle!

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    2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

    This was a good and healthy time. 

    utting Lewis in the OF. image.png.1277e706874788b0696db170d06942cd.png

     

    If he's healthy, he comes up immediately.  I'm want him at 3rd full time and I'll get to my reasons shortly.  He's a 1-1 talent who is playing well on rehab and showing no effects of the injury.  He's a building block of the franchise whether he/we like it or not.  Much like Kirilloff, he has the prospect and talent capital that moves him to the front of the line barring injury.  He has nothing to prove in the minors and the big club needs the exact help he can give.

    I'm not a scout but I have been watching his minor league at bats.  He looks comfortable and confident, both at the plate and running.  He is taking pitches very calmly, like he is seeing it well.  How he adjusts to the big league pitchers adjusting to him is the next question to be answered and that happens in the big leagues. 

    Now, the word of caution.  As mentioned, the 48 games over 4 years means he will have some heavy adjusting to do.  He will absolutely have a Miranda period.  Do NOT be surprised if he has a 6 week period with .650 or less OPS.  Along with freeing up Farmer this is the main reason for setting and forgetting at 3rd base.  He needs to be in comfortable positions when possible as we can't have defensive confusion spilling into what are sure to be some offensive struggles.  I'm fine hitting him leadoff as long as he's taking good at bats but don't be disappointed if he spends time in the 8/9 hole.  Its part of the process.  Get him up here and get it started.

    This. I would add one other thought. The AL Central is pretty awful this year. There's likely to be some ups and downs with Lewis; most players have those when they first come up. This is a year where the team can endure those and still have a real chance to win the division. Let's take advantage of that and give Lewis and Kirilloff an every day run. Add Larnach if Buxton ever goes back to the OF and opens up the DH spot or if Kepler gets traded. 

    Leave him at 3B and SS though. No need to take a bigger injury risk by playing him in the OF where he got hurt last year and where he hasn't played this year. Play him where he's going to play long term. 

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    2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

    I think that its a bit optimistic to think he can replace MAT on a 1 for 1 level much less as an upgrade to middle of the order bat.  It both underestimates how solid MAT has been and overestimates the ability of someone with 40 MLB at bats to dominate.  MAT isn't a world beater but we know we can count on his production.

    I also believe its more valuable to the team to have Farmer moving around the infield 3-4 times a week than MAT being a pinch runner, defensive replacement. 

    You might be right about my optimism.  However, while MAT has been quite consistent in the past, he is consistently below average offensively.   His wRC+ for the year is 83 and 80 for his career.  It's 37 for the month of May.  Lewis only had 41 Abs last year but his wRC+ was 146.  Will he perform at that that same level when he comes back?  IDK but his offensive ceiling is well beyond MAT.

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    Put me in the camp that wants him up here as soon as he is comfortable and ready.  Could that be June 1, maybe.  Also could be a week or more later.

    Looking at how many of you are saying play him in the outfield.  You didn't read the comments his agent made two weeks ago when he began his rehab.  He said Royce should be limited to short and third, then went on to give several wise reasons why playing him in the outfield would be a mistake and could lead to another injury.  Read it in the Strib and don't remember the specifics.  But recall thinking that he made a ton of sense when I read it.  So I will be shocked if we see him anywhere other than short or third.

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    15 minutes ago, roger said:

    Put me in the camp that wants him up here as soon as he is comfortable and ready.  Could that be June 1, maybe.  Also could be a week or more later.

    Looking at how many of you are saying play him in the outfield.  You didn't read the comments his agent made two weeks ago when he began his rehab.  He said Royce should be limited to short and third, then went on to give several wise reasons why playing him in the outfield would be a mistake and could lead to another injury.  Read it in the Strib and don't remember the specifics.  But recall thinking that he made a ton of sense when I read it.  So I will be shocked if we see him anywhere other than short or third.

    Boras also said he doesn't tell teams where to play players. And has a pretty strong interest in Correa staying at SS for a while, too. The quotes I saw didn't include him saying putting Lewis in the OF would be a mistake, just more or less that Lewis is more comfortable in the IF since that's where he's played the most. Lewis has been pretty open about his desire to stay on the dirt, but he also knows that it's better to be in the bigs playing CF than in AAA playing IF. I would be shocked if the Twins haven't had talks with him and pointed out what everyone already knows: they have a gaping hole in CF, and a whole bunch of IF prospects knocking on the door. Will be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple years.

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    Bring up Lewis & ease him at 3B, when he's absolutely 100% & start lighting things up then let him take over. Lewis is a ROY candidate let's give him a chance to win it this year. But above all Lewis's health is priority, so keep him in the INF.

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