Report from The Fort: Byron Buxton Talking Contract Extension?

I’d love a Buxton extension. One of these years he’s going to stay healthy and be an MVP caliber guy, then the price tag goes way up.

I’d still be surprised to hear his side is willing to engage at a reasonable price given how unhappy he was about the service time thing. But, I’d love to be wrong.

I love watching Buxton play so much, I hope they can work out a deal so he's here a long time. We will see? I think it does make a fair amount of sense for everyone to entertain it, so here's hoping!

I’d love a Buxton extension. One of these years he’s going to stay healthy and be an MVP caliber guy, then the price tag goes way up.

I’d still be surprised to hear his side is willing to engage at a reasonable price given how unhappy he was about the service time thing. But, I’d love to be wrong.

Exactly. If he's willing to listen, engage. 

Otherwise we're talking Mauer 2009 when you have to pay max year. (And Mauer was also "always hurt" prior to that contract.)

The reality is that his major league production has been underwhelming. I lean towards seeing what he does this year before extending him.

Great that they're willing to negotiate. He's beefed up, Let's get it done.

Getter done! Hope they can buy out 2 FA years

There's a lot of risk in not signing him to a long term deal now.  If he merely stays healthy this year, his leverage will sky rocket.  Sign him now; his talent is worth the risk of injury. 

It's interesting to me that this is happening now with Buxton and Berrios. The perception was Sano wanted to go to NY, that Berrios wouldn't sign and the Buxton would be angry about the service time thing and also would be gone. Now it appears things are pretty rosie in that clubhouse and this is one happy team.I guess this turns the Minnesota Sports Insecurity Syndrome on it's head. I'm glad because I get tired of hearing it. So we've got a beautiful ballpark, beautiful Minnesota summers and a team that is a joy to follow on all levels. I think you have to credit this front office, the coaches and JP for this turn of events.

Exactly. If he's willing to listen, engage. 

 

Otherwise we're talking Mauer 2009 when you have to pay max year. (And Mauer was also "always hurt" prior to that contract.)

The "always injured" Mauer after his rookie season averaged playing over 110 games a season at catcher while DH about 20 times a year. That is far different than Buxton. There is no comparison to what Mauer produced at his position compared to Buxton. 

I'm not in favor of a contract extension right now. Buxton has yet to prove he can stay consistently healthy and at the same time provide consistent offensive output. We know he is a great defender, but that is really the only part of his game that has been steady over the years. A long term extension would be extremely risky.

I think they should evaluate his performance after this year and make a decision based on that.

I love watching Buxton when he's on just as everyone else.  His inability to stay on the field vs. what he does when he is on the field and playing great is the reason I don't see either side coming to an agreement.

I would hope the Twins make an offer commensurate with a talented and valuable defensive player who is often injured and who hasn’t yet proven to be valuable offensively. Last year was a short sample with wildly unsustainable small-sample ISO and HR/FB numbers...the career offensive numbers speak for themselves...and was already so broken at the end of last season that he was benched in the playoffs. So, that type of offer. If some club is still in love with the concept that is Byron Buxton, you trade him to that club. If not, I have no problem with a middling offer and hoping for the best.

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense:

5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40

That would be buying out two years of free agency.

If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent.

Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.)

I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense:

5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40

That would be buying out two years of free agency.

If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent.

Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.)

I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

I think given the current situation, both above are low.  I would be looking more at 6/90 - 100.  Gives the Twins security (plus risk), and lets Buxton still explore the market before he is too old. I may be on the high side, but Twins have a lot of replaceable parts and players in the first 3 years at the start of this deal.  Let's get it done.

His contract is one of the hardest to figure out for long term.  He has never had a full healthy season, and even when he is healthy he has had such polarizing stretches as well.  His defense is best in the game, but that will regress as he loses some speed.  His long term value will greatly depend on both his health, and his ability to hit more consistently.  As he loses some speed he will have even less value on offense if he does not pick up his hitting overall. 

I would be open to a long term deal, but would not be willing to invest big money over long years for him.  I do not know the Twins thoughts, but I would not be willing to throw a number out until I had good idea on what his side is thinking.  Reason why is I would not want to insult him, but my thoughts would be 4 to 5 years for 10 to 12 mil a year max.  I would be willing to do more money per year with less years.  That is much less than what Springer just got at age 31, but it really limits the risk of injuries and regression of speed. 

My guess he will balk at that offer and will want closer to what Springer got.  Who knows though.  I still enjoy him as a player and hope his prime years put up huge numbers.  

So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6):

6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45

Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.