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    Marlins 4, Twins 1: Woof


    Hans Birkeland

    With their season in the balance, the Twins welcomed the National League's worst team, featuring a manager who knows he won't return for 2025. Of course, they lost easily, driving a stake further into the heart of a depressing season.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    Box Score:
    Starting Pitcher:
    Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (89 Pitches, 58 Strikes, 65.1%)
    Home Runs: None
    Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.217), Kyle Farmer (-.110), Ryan Jeffers (-.083)
    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    image.png.0fc9b44cb39f32e1c788c3103f24b121.png

    If the Twins' season was a single game, they fell behind early but bounced back and carried an eight-run lead into the fifth. They allowed two runs in that inning, two more in the sixth, two more in the seventh, and two more in the eighth. Another run scored in the ninth, and they now faced a deficit for the first time since May. Fortunately, they had Bailey Ober pitching on "Bark at the Park" night. Unfortunately, the Miami Marlins have been a trap team their entire existence.

    Miami started Ryan Weathers, the former San Diego top prospect and son of former Reds closer, David Weathers. He throws hard from the left side and has had some success this year. The Twins rolled out a 100% righty lineup with their season on the line and threatened in the first. Carlos Correa hit a screaming double over the center fielder and Byron Buxton was hit by a pitch. Carlos Santana then popped out and Royce Lewis was retired on a sharp line drive (107 MPH) right to right fielder Jesus Sanchez.

    Ober was ready to cruise against one of the worst lineups in baseball, but what Miami lacks in star power they make up for in post-hype prospects that really aren't that bad, Weathers included. The second began with a homer from Jonah Bride off a fastball at the top of the zone that Miami's DH got on top of, something you rarely see with Ober's fastball when located well. Oh well, solo home runs won't kill you. Except Ober then hit Derek Hill with a pitch with two outs, allowed a bloop hit to Otto Lopez and then left a pitch up in the zone to light-hitting catcher Nick Fortes, who smacked a single the other way to score the game's second run. Ober was clearly frustrated and threw another mistake to Xavier Edwards, who doubled to left-center to score two more runs. In the blink of an eye, the score was 4-0.

    Ober's velocity was down a bit, sitting at 90 MPH and dipping into the 80s at points. He also left a few cutters hanging in the middle of the zone (see above), and not all of them were hit, or even swung at. In short, it could have been worse.

    The Twins put traffic on in most innings, and with one out in the third, Lewis rifled a base hit through the left side to score Buxton, who had reached on an infield hit and advanced on a Santana walk. The trouble was that Kyle Farmer hit into an inning ending double play. It's funny, but Farmer is kind of who you wanted to see in that situation, with his recent hot-hitting and career-long ability to punish left-handed pitching. As the Twins and their fans have learned, when your season is circling the toilet, you can't un-flush.

    Correa delivered his second hit in the fifth with one out, and Buxton doubled to the corner to put runners on second and third with Santana up facing a lefty. The Twins first baseman was retired on a foul pop up and Lewis tapped to third to waste another opportunity.

    Ober gutted his way through five innings, but walked Derek Hill to start the sixth and was removed for the Twins new best pitcher, Scott Blewett, who quickly got a double play ball and got through the inning unscathed.

    Matt Wallner was called upon to pinch hit in the sixth and struck out while being frozen on a breaking ball, He then grabbed his side and was removed from the game. That is one injury this team cannot afford; Wallner has been their only effective and healthy hitter for a while now.

    Willi Castro led off the seventh with a 3-2 single, but Brooks Lee tapped out, Correa struck out, and Buxton flied out to end whatever threat there was.

    A last flicker of hope was extinguished in the eighth. Santana led of with a walk against tough righty Anthony Bender. Trevor Larnach, hitting for Wallner, laced a single to center following a lineout from Lewis. Jeffers then popped out for the twelfth time in his last eleven at-bats, and the inning was left to the forgotten Edouard Julien, who hadn't taken a plate appearance in a week. One thing I've noticed about Julien is that his opposite-field fly balls are just about ten feet shorter than last year and right on queue, he flew out short of the warning track to end the inning.

    Cole Irvin pitched a scoreless inning despite himself (two walks, one wild pitch).

    Trends:

             
      Healthy Hurt    
    Performing        
    Contributing        
    Low Impact        
    IL/Minors        
             
    C Ryan Jeffers 📉 Christian Vazquez 📉    
    1B Carlos Santana 📉 Alex Kirilloff 📉 Jose Miranda 📉  
    2B Edouard Julien 📉 Kyle Farmer 📈'    
    3B Royce Lewis 📈      
    SS Carlos Correa 📈 Brooks Lee 📉    
    LF Matt Wallner 📉 Trevor Larnach 📈 Austin Martin 📉  
    CF Byron Buxton 📈 Manuel Margot 📉 DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 📈  
    RF Max Kepler 📈      
    UTIL Willi Castro 📈 Michael Helman 📈    
    SP Pablo Lopez 📉 Bailey Ober Joe Ryan 📉 Chris Paddack 📈
    RSP David Festa 📈 Zebby Matthews 📈 Simeon Woods Richardson 📉  
    CR Jhoan Duran 📉 Griffin Jax 📉    
    SR Brock Stewart 📉 Cole Irvin 📉 Cole Sands 📈  
    MR Caleb Thielbar 📈 Scott Blewett 📈 Michael Tonkin 📈 Louie Varland 📈
    LR Josh Winder 📉 Ronny Henriquez 📈 Brent Headrick 📉 Diego Castillo 📈
     

     

     

    What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-5, 4.00 ERA) opposes Edward Cabrera (4-8, 5.12 ERA) as the Twins play out the string. Cabrera has great stuff and an incredible change-up, and was the subject of Twitter-based trade speculation last off-season, In reality, he has struggled with injuries and command in his brief career, but also scouts should throw out positive results against the Twins in the past month.

    Postgame Interviews:
    (Coming soon)

    Bullpen Usage Chart:

      FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT
    Tonkin 14 0 37 0 25 76
    Headrick 0 0 60 0 0 60
    Irvin 0 0 25 0 19 44
    Blewett 12 0 7 0 20 39
    Sands 16 0 20 0 0 36
    Thielbar 10 0 17 0 3 30
    Durán 20 0 0 0 0 20
    Varland 13 0 0 0 0 13
    Jax 8 0 0 0 0 8

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Featured Comments

    2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    Again, don't want him on the team, but I'm going to use his line from this season in the situation being discussed when determining how well he's done. His career OPS means nothing when discussing leading him off against lefties this season. If his career OPS was .853 but his season OPS was .670 would you want him playing? Goes both ways.

    I don't care about the 100 PA sample size. He's not even that good against lefties. Something like career 0.750 ops. 

    He's trash and only a bad manager would have him hitting leadoff in a meaningful game. 

    Just now, NYCTK said:

    I don't care about the 100 PA sample size. He's not even that good against lefties. Something like career 0.750 ops. 

    He's trash and only a bad manager would have him hitting leadoff in a meaningful game. 

    So what is the secret lineup that should be thrown out there? I don't know how many times in this thread I have to say I don't even want him on the team, but he is on the team. If people want to bash the lineup choices provide a better one. What should the lineup have been tonight? Provide your reasoning. And career OPS is not going to be an impressive reason.

    5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    So what is the secret lineup that should be thrown out there? I don't know how many times in this thread I have to say I don't even want him on the team, but he is on the team. If people want to bash the lineup choices provide a better one. What should the lineup have been tonight? Provide your reasoning. And career OPS is not going to be an impressive reason.

    Fun Fact: The person at the top of the order should be good because they will be receiving the most plate appeances. 

    Who should be at the top of the order? Not the guy we both agree shouldn't even be on the team. 

    7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    Fun Fact: The person at the top of the order should be good because they will be receiving the most plate appeances. 

    Who should be at the top of the order? Not the guy we both agree shouldn't even be on the team. 

    So you don't have an answer? You just know this is the wrong one even though you don't have a right one? Got it.

    Margot leading off against lefties is one of the easier decisions of Rocco's to defend. Waiving away actual statistical reasons just because you don't like them isn't an argument. The reason I don't want Margot on the team is because hitting against lefties is the only thing he's good at. That isn't enough, in my opinion, to be worthy of a roster spot. But not taking advantage of the one skill he has while he's on the roster would be foolish.

    You use stats and splits all the time to support things. But now that they don't match what you want them to say you don't like the stats. That tells me enough about this discussion. To each their own. But Margot's leadoff performance against lefties is absolutely not a problem for this team.

    Just now, chpettit19 said:

    So you don't have an answer? You just know this is the wrong one even though you don't have a right one? Got it.

    Margot leading off against lefties is one of the easier decisions of Rocco's to defend. Waiving away actual statistical reasons just because you don't like them isn't an argument. The reason I don't want Margot on the team is because hitting against lefties is the only thing he's good at. That isn't enough, in my opinion, to be worthy of a roster spot. But not taking advantage of the one skill he has would be foolish.

    You use stats and splits all the time to support things. But now that they don't match what you don't like the stats. That tells me enough about this discussion. To each their own. But Margot's leadoff performance against lefties is absolutely not a problem for this team.

    Neither of us even want him on the team, yet here you are defending Rocco putting him in the leadoff spot? 

    I'm not going to go through a full batting order when, again, you and I agree that Margot shouldn't be on the team. What's the point of me wasting my time on that nonsense? 

    7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    Neither of us even want him on the team, yet here you are defending Rocco putting him in the leadoff spot? 

    I'm not going to go through a full batting order when, again, you and I agree that Margot shouldn't be on the team. What's the point of me wasting my time on that nonsense? 

    The reason I don't want him on the team matters. But he does have a singular skill. And Rocco puts it to use as often as he can. That's logical.

    It shouldn't be that much work to come up with a batting order if it's all so obvious. 

    My simple answer is that it's not always Rocco's fault the team loses. This game is a pretty solid example. His number 2 pitcher gave up 4 runs early and his offense scored 1. Margot could've been on this train to Vermont with me and it wouldn't have caused them to score 17 runs. The entire lineup is bad. Blaming Rocco for the guys on the field being absolute trash right now is a lazy take. Especially if you can't even explain the better option. Margot got 3 PAs tonight. That didn't cause them to go 1 for 9 with RISP and leave 10 guys on base. Margot was 0-1 with 2 left on. Are the other 7 times they got out with RISP and 8 guys left on his fault, too?

    The entire lineup sucks. Put whatever lineup you want together. There's no reason to expect them to score right now. Margot lead off against lefties the majority of the season when they were the best offense in baseball against lefties. Was Rocco "a bad manager" during that stretch too or is it just right now?

     

    4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    The reason I don't want him on the team matters. But he does have a singular skill. And Rocco puts it to use as often as he can. That's logical.

    It shouldn't be that much work to come up with a batting order if it's all so obvious. 

    My simple answer is that it's not always Rocco's fault the team loses. This game is a pretty solid example. His number 2 pitcher gave up 4 runs early and his offense scored 1. Margot could've been on this train to Vermont with me and it wouldn't have caused them to score 17 runs. The entire lineup is bad. Blaming Rocco for the guys on the field being absolute trash right now is a lazy take. Especially if you can't even explain the better option. Margot got 3 PAs tonight. That didn't cause them to go 1 for 9 with RISP and leave 10 guys on base. The entire lineup sucks. Put whatever lineup you want together. There's no reason to expect them to score right now. Margot lead off against lefties the majority of the season when they were the best offense in baseball against lefties. Was Rocco "a bad manager" during that stretch too or is it just right now?

    He doesn't have a singular skill. You've been duped by a sample of results into believing he has skill for some reason.

    His career ops leading off? Right around 700, not significantly different from his career ops. 

    Unless you believe Rocco or Popkins or whomever suddenly taught him how to hit leadoff successfully while still sucking at hitting in every other situation. 

     

    2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

     

    He doesn't have a singular skill. You've been duped by a sample of results into believing he has skill for some reason.

    His career ops leading off? Right around 700, not significantly different from his career ops. 

    Unless you believe Rocco or Popkins or whomever suddenly taught him how to hit leadoff successfully while still sucking at hitting in every other situation. 

     

    You just liked a post suggesting Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer would be the better choice. Explain to me why you agree with that. Go ahead and throw their career OPS numbers in there to defend it like you're trying to do with your Margot stance. And when you accept that you absolutely would not do that and the reason you liked that point is because "you've been duped by a sample of results into believing (they have) skill for some reason" maybe rethink your stance here.

    1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

    You just liked a post suggesting Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer would be the better choice. Explain to me why you agree with that. Go ahead and throw their career OPS numbers in there to defend it like you're trying to do with your Margot stance. And when you accept that you absolutely would not do that and the reason you liked that point is because "you've been duped by a sample of results into believing (they have) skill for some reason" maybe rethink your stance here.

    No. I don't think I care to do that actually. Werido, looking at other people's reactions and demanding responses. 

    I'd simply not lead off with a player that isn't a good hitter. But that's just me, being all judgemental of the infallible Twins Front Office and Rocco in an evening their 0.632 ops leadoff hitter went 0 for 3. 

    Good night! 

    The Twins get one more mulligan.

    After that, it becomes a ‘win-out’ scenario and hope one of Detroit or KC loses their final series. 

    Speaking of, the hurricane might have an impact. I can see the Braves and Royals possibly needing to play a doubleheader Saturday or Sunday. Crazy. 

    6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    No. I don't think I care to do that actually. Werido, looking at other people's reactions and demanding responses. 

    I'd simply not lead off with a player that isn't a good hitter. But that's just me, being all judgemental of the infallible Twins Front Office and Rocco in an evening their 0.632 ops leadoff hitter went 0 for 3. 

    Good night! 

    Not infallible at all. I've already said in this thread I'd fire them all. But your argument that "I'd simply not lead off with a player that isn't a good hitter" pretty well goes out the window when you're good with Kyle Farmer and Willie Castro being the right choices.

    And, for the record, I wouldn't leadoff Margot either. But acting like it was some ridiculous thing or cost them this game is what I'm pushing back on. It's quite easy to see why he does it even if it's not what I'd do. I'd go Buxton-Wallner-Correa-Larnach-Lewis-Miranda-Santana-Catcher-Castro everyday they're healthy no matter who is on the mound. But that doesn't mean Manuel Margot hasn't performed well in his leadoff against lefties role this year. Because he has.

    Enjoy the rest of your night.

    21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    Not infallible at all. I've already said in this thread I'd fire them all. But your argument that "I'd simply not lead off with a player that isn't a good hitter" pretty well goes out the window when you're good with Kyle Farmer and Willie Castro being the right choices.

    And, for the record, I wouldn't leadoff Margot either. But acting like it was some ridiculous thing or cost them this game is what I'm pushing back on. It's quite easy to see why he does it even if it's not what I'd do. I'd go Buxton-Wallner-Correa-Larnach-Lewis-Miranda-Santana-Catcher-Castro everyday they're healthy no matter who is on the mound. But that doesn't mean Manuel Margot hasn't performed well in his leadoff against lefties role this year. Because he has.

    Enjoy the rest of your night.

    I don't understand defending a decision that you yourself agree isn't a good one.

    Margot shouldn't be in ANY lineup, anywhere. Putting him at leadoff is the worst possible place for someone who shouldn't even be batting 9th.

    The lineup is certainly struggling. Yeah. Everyone agrees. Decisions like this don't help. There might be some level of correlation. 

     

    Just now, USAFChief said:

    I don't understand defending a decision that you yourself agree isn't a good one.

    Margot shouldn't be in ANY lineup, anywhere. Putting him at leadoff is the worst possible place for someone who shouldn't even be batting 9th.

    The lineup is certainly struggling. Yeah. Everyone agrees. Decisions like this don't help. There might be some level of correlation. 

     

    I didn't say it wasn't a good one, in fact, I said it was an easily defended one. I said it isn't the decision I'd make. Is the argument there's only 1 right decision when it comes to how this lineup could/should be put together? 2 things can both be good ideas at the same time.

    The lineup, with Margot leading off, was the best in baseball at scoring runs against lefties for about 85% of the season. Any correlation to the Margot decision there or would this team have doubled up every other team in runs if Rocco was just smart enough to put the lineup in the right order? 

    I didn't think he was in danger, but I now think it's 50/50 that Rocco is fired. This team has 100% quit on him and his continued instance on things like playing Manny Margot make it a deserved firing, even if Falvey deserves a bigger slice of blame for the mess. 

    8 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

    Wow. What a performance.

    What will this FO do in the off season? 

    Fire the equipment manager? ? ? 

     

     

     

    If you consider Baldelli the equipment manager, then yes. Fire the equipment manager. And while he's on the way out the door, make sure to follow him out.

    The lights have been off in this party for quite a while. If major changes aren't made, and the band comes back in this same form next season, we'll all be saying the same things at that time too. They're playing unwatchable baseball, and it sure looks like they've quit on the manager. Ownership is getting exactly what they deserve. 

    Margot's effort on the flyball in the second inning was pathetic.  You are playing for your season and he doesn't go max effort after it, he shouldn't play for the rest of the year for that.  It was a catchable ball and helped change the tone of the game.  

    1 hour ago, CRF said:

    Ownership is getting exactly what they deserve. 

    Yep. And this is problem number one. And why I don’t believe much will change. Maybe we’ll get a new manager, maybe Falvey will go, maybe the entire coaching squad, but the culture will stay the same and the Twins will continue to field the teams they do.

    7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

    Margot is now 2-24 in the month of September, with 2 BB's, a .154 OBP. That is reason enough to not bat him lead-off. Castro or even Farmer would have been a better choice.

    The Twins are still wondering what their everyday lineup should be.

    Five more game to figure it out. 

    16 minutes ago, karcherd said:

    Margot's effort on the flyball in the second inning was pathetic.  You are playing for your season and he doesn't go max effort after it, he shouldn't play for the rest of the year for that.  It was a catchable ball and helped change the tone of the game.  

    Not just his season, but also his job. He will be a free agent after the season. You would think he'd want to showcase himself a bit.

    Yes Rocco is the manager of the team.  And although it's true he is not on the playing field in these losses.  However he is the man that puts them out there.  He determines where they play and where they bat in the lineup.  He is supposed to set the tone.  They aren't listening.  There needs to be some accountability.  There currently is none.

    And it all comes crumbling down. Been saying it for a long time here at Twins Daily. This team, from the FO all the way down to the Manny Margots, is not that good. Even if they make the playoffs, which is highly unlikely now, they won't go far. The FO has assembled a team that has 2 superstars that can't stay on the field. A rotation that consists of 3 pitchers, (Lopez, Ober, & Ryan now injured) with the Ace really a #2. The bullpen was touted as being the "best" in baseball at the beginning of the season, can't hold a lead, with a closer that has looked average at best and some games doesn't even get used as the closer. Went all in on the Homerun or bust approach and now they are seeing the results of that. Busted! When they don't hit the long ball, they can't score. A Manager that doesn't know how to set an everyday lineup that would give his players consistant playing time and consistant at bats. He's more concerned about matchups than playing his best players everyday. Gives rest to keep players healthy when rest has never been proven to prevent injuries. This team and the way it is run is a total disaster! I can hardly wait till next year, as I doubt ownership has the insight or the guts to make the changes they need.

    Every team can win a baseball game on any given night. Even 99 loss teams. However losing 99 games is something that very few teams 'achieve' each season. So Miami really isn't a very good team this year. Just a team that can win once in awhile. They shouldn't be beating a team allegedly fighting for a playoff spot. Twins should have been pumped and ready to put them away.

    Twins didn't capitalize on that last night. Instead THEY looked every bit the 99 loss team. In fact they have looked like that for over a month now. Teams win and lose as a team usually. Yes for short spurts one maybe two players can 'carry' a team with a hot hand, but over 162 games, you need a full team buy-in. Twins clearly don't have that anymore. We are watching a tired, worn out outfit that probably needs to go home. The odds are extremely low that they can make up 2 games this week, when they can't string two wins together, let alone win one. Even their two best starters simply failed in their recent starts. The 'sickness' has spread to the entire roster. For better or worse, this WILL cost the manager his job. There will be champagne popping from some here. Others will simply say managers are hired to be fired and a change of direction might help.

    Whatever the case, last nights non-effort should make it pretty clear these guys just need to go home now. They are unwatchable. They are broken. It doesn't look like even the players believe they can pull out of this. Thats what we see anyway. Its all we've got.

    6 hours ago, howeda7 said:

    I didn't think he was in danger, but I now think it's 50/50 that Rocco is fired. This team has 100% quit on him and his continued instance on things like playing Manny Margot make it a deserved firing, even if Falvey deserves a bigger slice of blame for the mess. 

    For the most part Rocco has been Rocco since the 2019 season, I have seen a little improvement here and there but not enough. I said he needed to win a playoff series to keep his job last year. But this year really hasn't been much different from disasters of 21 and 22. Rocco would be a good manager for a team with stars all over the field but isn't one for mid salary team that needs more out of lesser players.

    I will say if this Front office isn't back the next one will be stepping into a very similar situation (which is good).

    10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I despise Margot being on this team, but in 41 games as a leadoff hitter he's hit .326/.380/.473/.853. It's literally the only thing he's been good at.

    At this point in the season I am ignoring all that and I am putting my hottest hitter 1st (Buxton?), 2nd hottest hitter 2nd, and so on. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    Now I get it they all have been pretty terrible so whatever lineup they put out there will look like trash.

    But in a must win game, you have to ask the question which player do I want to get the most at bats, and if you answer Margot you should be fired, or if you answer if we lead off with Margot we can pinch hit and somebody else will get at bats, you should be fired.

    I am putting my three "super stars" 1, 2, 3, Buxton, Lewis and Correa (in some order), end of story.




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