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Arraez, soon to turn 24, lacks speed. In all other respects, though, his offensive profile suits the modern prototype for the top of the batting order. He owns a career .390 on-base percentage in the big leagues, and in almost 1,600 plate appearances in the minors, that figure was .385. Any player who gets on base at such a rate belongs in one of the top four spots in the batting order, but one without power should be slotted in first, because the other slots need to be reserved for players whose skills allow them to consistently drive in runners even from first base.
The leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off once per game, though, and because of the guys who will fill the bottom two slots in the Twins’ batting order most often in 2021, Arraez (with his unique skill set) could deliver extra value and efficiency in subsequent turns at bat. Byron Buxton’s speed and Andrelton Simmons’s lack of power each serve to magnify the impact of Arraez’s exceptional contact skills and ability to use the whole field.
In The Book, a sacred tome in sabermetric orthodoxy published in 2007, co-authors Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtma, and Andrew Dolphin wrote the following about finding the best way to use great baserunners: “If you need to leverage a basestealer, put him in front of a batter who hits lots of singles and doesn’t strike out much.” Buxton is the only great runner in the projected everyday lineup, but he’s an especially good one, which makes it important that the team make the most of those skills. Because of his approach and his power, Buxton might not often find himself on first base, but when he does, the team should try to follow him with players whose only glaring weaknesses are lack of power and the risk of double plays.
Simmons and Arraez both fit those criteria. The separators between the two — that Arraez is more patient, that he hits more line drives and fewer ground balls, and that he uses the whole field much better — make Simmons a bottom-of-the-order bat and Arraez a top-of-the-order one, but they’re equally excellent when it comes to fitting behind Buxton’s speed. Simmons’s lack of skills other than contact make him a candidate to bunt Buxton over at times. Arraez’s all-around profile makes him as good a candidate to be the hitter in a hit-and-run situation as any hitter in the last decade. Each hits so many singles that getting Buxton into scoring position would take on real value, in a way that having him steal in front of Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, or even Jorge Polanco would not.
Meanwhile, of course, Arraez’s presence at the top of the order would give the Twins’ offense the kind of start it needs to put up crooked numbers more often in 2021. If the team is truly worried about his defense, Arraez could start, then be replaced by Polanco as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement roughly halfway through games. That plan might sound convoluted, but it’s no more so than going into the season planning to give more plate appearances to Kepler (.337 PECOTA-projected OBP), Polanco (.322), and Simmons (.326) than to Arraez (a team-leading .360). Any time your best out-avoider is also shy on power, and could perfectly augment the idiosyncratic strength of a bottom-of-the-order hitter, that guy has to be the regular leadoff hitter.
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