Keeping Christian Vázquez Isn't a Sunk-Cost Fallacy Situation

I've always supported the alternating catchers idea for this tandom. I find it incredible that they have both been healthy for 1.5 years and credit this rotation for that. 

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So we're going to ignore the first two months isy the year and last year, and only talk about the good stuff? Seems like a legit analysis. 

You don't have to ignore 2023. If you assume that 600 OPS is his true talent level he's a perfectly fine 2nd catcher because of his defense.

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So we're going to ignore the first two months isy the year and last year, and only talk about the good stuff? Seems like a legit analysis. 

Yes. We might as well bench players like Miranda and Larnach because they have sucked for most of their tenure as Twins as well. 

All of the data is relevant.  And I don't think anyone is saying "ignore X data."  There is a legitimate question about what emphasis should be placed on the recent data.

Personally I think that (1) 65 AB is a pretty good sample size but (2) I am not aware of a change in swing or anything that explains why we should draw a line.  Thus I am happy about the recent trend, but don't assume that it represents a new expected level of performance.

Every player has their ups & downs including X, Y & Z. I'm glad that some folks are able to focus on CV's ups for a change, IMO he'll play in the playoffs if the Twins make it this year.

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not a number two catcher. He catches more games than Jeffers. 

That isn't Vazquez' fault. That's a management decision.

 With that in mind, I do think that there is a pretty good case to be made that the later data is more likely to be predictive of his future level of offensive performance.
And TY for sharing the links, those were helpful.

He is not worth his contract.  Not even close to it.  I liked the signing at the time and am really dissapointed he has not hit close to his career average since becoming a Twin.  We are stuck with him.

We're advocating for Jeffers to catch less often because he has posted a 71 wRC+ in the last 6 weeks, but Vazquez starting more games last year and so far this season while posting a 65 & 49 wRC+ respectively isn't about a sunk cost? Ok....

I would love to see the defensive metrics being gushed over put into context vs. his terrible offensive numbers. How many strikes is he "stealing," in an average game? How often during a game is he blocking balls that prevent runners from moving up a base? Do either come close to providing enough value to offset his his inability to control the run game and his paltry offensive performance over the last 1.5 seasons?

Yes, he's certainly been better, even good, since June 1st - no argument there. But as others have pointed out, he was terrible with the bat previous to that & in 2023, with a negative WAR in both years (so far) for the Twins. A lot of defensive stats don't pass the eye test, but he certainly is good with the glove & framing, he's earned that respect. 

But thinking 65 AB is a "good sample size" is just silly. It a month of baseball. Joey Gallo had a fine month of April in 2023 (7HR, 9BB, .339 OBP) that, mixed in with his defensive flexibility, gave some of hope he'd found something close to his 2021 form with a mixture of a great eye, power, & solid defense. But that April 2023 "good sample size"? Pretty sure we all know how that turned out. 

Trying to paint Vazquez in a shiningly good light is just not realistic. The Twins signed a guy they thought they'd net 1 - 2.5 WAR out of annually with a .260+ average & great defense. No sugar-coating: it hasn't worked out that way on one side of the ball, or even in that neighborhood of WAR, a few good weeks notwithstanding. 

1 hour ago, Bamboo Bat said:

Yes, he's certainly been better, even good, since June 1st - no argument there. But as others have pointed out, he was terrible with the bat previous to that & in 2023, with a negative WAR in both years (so far) for the Twins. A lot of defensive stats don't pass the eye test, but he certainly is good with the glove & framing, he's earned that respect. 

But thinking 65 AB is a "good sample size" is just silly. It a month of baseball. Joey Gallo had a fine month of April in 2023 (7HR, 9BB, .339 OBP) that, mixed in with his defensive flexibility, gave some of hope he'd found something close to his 2021 form with a mixture of a great eye, power, & solid defense. But that April 2023 "good sample size"? Pretty sure we all know how that turned out. 

Trying to paint Vazquez in a shiningly good light is just not realistic. The Twins signed a guy they thought they'd net 1 - 2.5 WAR out of annually with a .260+ average & great defense. No sugar-coating: it hasn't worked out that way on one side of the ball, or even in that neighborhood of WAR, a few good weeks notwithstanding. 

 

He is better than Jeffers or any othe option.

With his hot streak the last 6 weeks or so definitely helps his value.  Hopefully he can keep it up and end up a .75-.80 OPS+ type offense for the season and he keeps up with his defense.  There is planning and communication and setting up the pitchers that isn’t quantifiable so it’s hard to peg a value there.  He is a popular player in the clubhouse so his work is recognized by his teammates.  If he isn’t worth the contract he is probably not off by as much as we the fans might think.  🤔 

If you are a good pitcher you don't give a damn about whether or not your catcher can hit. There is nothing wrong with Vazquez and the guys who throw to him would be much more scornful of negative comments about him than any of us ever could be.

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So we're going to ignore the first two months isy the year and last year, and only talk about the good stuff? Seems like a legit analysis. 

Apparently you skipped over the parts of the article where he talked about Vazquez sucking at the beginning of the season.....

Thank you Cody for this article. We have to look back on why we signed him. We signed him because our catching was in the toilet. Defensively he has raised the level to above average. Besides raising the catching level our pitching level has increased. Besides being a top defensive catcher, he's very good at game-calling & handling the pitchers. Besides working well with the pitchers, he works well with the INFers, especially Correa. He's also a great clubhouse guy.

Did we overpay for Vazquez? Maybe so. But what is done is done & what is the alternative? If we DFA him we are out the money or if we can trade him we'll have to eat a good portion of that money. Either way, our defense will take a blow. Carmargo isn't a serious backup. Then we'll have to pay extra for an inferior backup.