KC 6, MIN 1: Bad Inning Spoils Awesome Uniforms

I wouldn't mind those uniforms showing up more often.

When does Buxton get back? The Twins need him.

I understand the SSS argument and we can be fairly confident that he won't maintain his 0.529 OBP ?!!

 

but I think he has a very LARGE sample size at this point at taking professional at bats at multiple levels of competition which makes me think that he will hit long term in the MLB.

 

I would actually feel better about him in a playoff series than Sano.....I wish I didn't, and maybe it's not rational, but there I said it

Large sample size across all levels of competition:

Sano- 3943 PA: .877 OPS

Arraez- 2027 PA: .802 OPS

Loved the uniforms, especially the Twins.

Watching Arraez take his at bats tells me he isn't a flash in the pan.  He is what he is and that is a high on base guy at whatever level he is at.  That plays, especially amongst a lot of bomba hitters.  Put him in the lead off slot, or #7 ahead of Garver and Buxton and he will score runs, a lot of runs.  

Yes, another month or two will confirm his SSS is who he is....maybe not a .529 OBP, but likely well over .400.  When does he earn the starting second base job?  Probably not until Schoop is no longer on the team.  With the Twins needing to sign a lot of big dollar extensions next off season, I don't see them paying big dollars to extend/resign Schoop.  So pencil him in to the 2020 lineup.  Do they make the move sooner should a deal develop to move Schoop next month?  Interesting! 

Loved the uniforms, especially the Twins.

 

Watching Arraez take his at bats tells me he isn't a flash in the pan. He is what he is and that is a high on base guy at whatever level he is at. That plays, especially amongst a lot of bomba hitters. Put him in the lead off slot, or #7 ahead of Garver and Buxton and he will score runs, a lot of runs.

 

Yes, another month or two will confirm his SSS is who he is....maybe not a .529 OBP, but likely well over .400. When does he earn the starting second base job? Probably not until Schoop is no longer on the team. With the Twins needing to sign a lot of big dollar extensions next off season, I don't see them paying big dollars to extend/resign Schoop. So pencil him in to the 2020 lineup. Do they make the move sooner should a deal develop to move Schoop next month? Interesting!

In the entire history of MLB, only 56 players have posted career OBP of .400 or higher. Even Joe Mauer failed to come close.

And you think it's not only LIKELY that Arraez will do this, but that he'll have WELL OVER it?

If that was indeed likely, he'd be the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

Should Arraez get a shot at lead off hitter? 

I think it's highly likely that's where he will be next season and beyond, playing 2B regularly.

Got news for you Arraez fans, he's going to be the guy we send over for Bumgartner. It would have been nice if we could have hidden him in the minors, but he's played himself into a major trade piece.

If we've seen it, GMs around the league have too. His value is as high as it ever might be.

It's too bad because I'd much rather have Arraez at 2nd than Schoop at this point. I'm beginning to think his "sore leg" was more of a phantom injury to sit him down for a while. Same goes for Marwin and Adrianza - I think the Twins are just resting the vets right now with this big lead. Look for Cron to take a 10-day break with a sore shoulder in the next couple of weeks.

The way things are going this might be the last rest they get.

In the entire history of MLB, only 56 players have posted career OBP of .400 or higher. Even Joe Mauer failed to come close.
And you think it's not only LIKELY that Arraez will do this, but that he'll have WELL OVER it?

If that was indeed likely, he'd be the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

Yes, I believe he will have an OBP over .400.  If not every year, certainly many years.  As for his career, yes, I believe it will be possible.   

As you stated, there have been 56 players in the history of the game.  Who is to say that Arraez cannot be the 57th?  He has been very close to a .400 OBP for his entire minor league career.  There is only one person who can say whether or not he will continue to improve as he matures and gains experience, Arraez himself.  I believe he will.  

As for prospect evaluators, Arraez does not do the things they get excited about...thus, he doesn't get included in the upper echelons of their lists.  All he has done, his entire minor league career, is get on base.  I'll take that, especially amongst all the bombers he will be surrounded by.  

Yes, I believe he will have an OBP over .400. If not every year, certainly many years. As for his career, yes, I believe it will be possible.

 

As you stated, there have been 56 players in the history of the game. Who is to say that Arraez cannot be the 57th? He has been very close to a .400 OBP for his entire minor league career. There is only one person who can say whether or not he will continue to improve as he matures and gains experience, Arraez himself. I believe he will.

 

As for prospect evaluators, Arraez does not do the things they get excited about...thus, he doesn't get included in the upper echelons of their lists. All he has done, his entire minor league career, is get on base. I'll take that, especially amongst all the bombers he will be surrounded by.

Arraez’s ability to draw walks in the minors relates more to the inability of minor leaguers to throw strikes than fear of what Arraez can do at the plate. MLB pitchers are better at throwing strikes. Sure, his selectivity is definitely a plus, but his walk rate is still going to drop substantially.

Agree. Astudillo has gotten so overrated by many twins fans. His slugging percentage is abysmal. He’s not particularly hard to get out in a jam (just make him chase). We’ve already seen him drop fly balls in the outfield in key situations.

Astudillo was rated properly, I think. He was playing hot and we wanted him in the majors until he cooled off. Now that he has, it's OK that he goes to the minors.

Arraez’s ability to draw walks in the minors relates more to the inability of minor leaguers to throw strikes than fear of what Arraez can do at the plate. MLB pitchers are better at throwing strikes. Sure, his selectivity is definitely a plus, but his walk rate is still going to drop substantially.

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one.  But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.  

Just watch him take at bats.  He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats.  Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances.  But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.

For his minor league career, Arraez took 122 bb, compared to 129 k, in 1,585 PA's.  That's a 7.7% bb rate, which is right around a top-11 rate in all of MLB.  This despite a career minors SLG of .414.  Arraez is a professional hitter who will be 22 the rest of this season--I'd be shocked if he's not the starting 2nd baseman next year.

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one. But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.

 

Just watch him take at bats. He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats. Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances. But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.

Based on what?

Thanks for bringing my rational side back.  The emotional side of me misses the team that was flaming hot the first two months of the season.  Yep lots of top teams are going through slumps.  The Astros lost five in a row, I think the Brewers did as well, The Yankees and Rays have gone through tough stretches.  It happens to every team.

 

It is just hard to see the competition get hot.  Cleveland just always seems to find good pitchers.  Even with their pitching injuries their young guys have just stepped right in and hardly missed a beat. Their offense after that horrible start is putting up runs at a good clip too.  Right now they look better than our team IMO. Also the Indians schedule is pretty easy until August when they start facing tougher competition again.  It sure feels like we are going to be reeled in.  Probably a battle to the end of the season this year unless we totally collapse.

I love battles to the end.   2006, 2008, and 2009 were awesome though it is a little more satisfying coming from behind than watching leads dwindle.    I am more about the journey than the destination games that matter in September are all I ask for, but yes, watching a hot streak in May and June is fun also.

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one.  But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.  

 

Just watch him take at bats.  He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats.  Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances.  But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.

I hope you are right in all you say.   He is young after all and likely to improve but walk rates don't improve in the majors especially when we are talking singles hitters.    They will not walk guys that can't harm them with extra bases.   You are talking about  the #17 Twins prospect doing better than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.    I think a Ben Revere comparison will be more likely, though hopefully favorably.    Anything over .350 OBP would make him very useful. 

It's interesting how the Twins keep saying "it was just one bad inning" for Pineda.

Welcome to being the next Gibson, I guess, but the bad innings count too. In fact, the bad innings are the only ones people will remember.

I wonder how many baseball games are decided by "one bad inning" for the pitcher. I would think it's at least 40%.

Wasn't Pineda the 4th starter, and Perez the 5th? It was Perez that got bullpenned to start the season. Sure Perez has maybe, maybe pitched better overall (recent starts may disagree) but just declaring Pineda the 5th starter seems arbitrary, and actually a demotion because he has pitched the worst of the starters. It doesn't really matter..... the # assigned.... but a tad bit interesting to me. Is Pineda's performance as the 4th starter as acceptable?

People value different stats.   I kind of like the quality start stat and ERA but don't really believe there is a gold standard of stats for pitchers.    I also try to look a little bit at circumstances.   Perez didn't start out the year as a starter cuz of the schedule.   Gibson got off to a slow start presumably because health.    If Pineda's first and last 7 games were switched around I wouldn't be defending him.    His 6 week stretch before last night was more in line with a #3 or better.    Again, the average ERA in the AL is 4.52.   The quality start percentage is 37% and Houston is the only team that has over 50%.   Place them however you want.   I am quite comfortable putting either against pretty much any other teams #4 and 5 and in many cases #3.  

Yes, I believe he will have an OBP over .400. If not every year, certainly many years. As for his career, yes, I believe it will be possible.

 

As you stated, there have been 56 players in the history of the game. Who is to say that Arraez cannot be the 57th? He has been very close to a .400 OBP for his entire minor league career. There is only one person who can say whether or not he will continue to improve as he matures and gains experience, Arraez himself. I believe he will.

 

As for prospect evaluators, Arraez does not do the things they get excited about...thus, he doesn't get included in the upper echelons of their lists. All he has done, his entire minor league career, is get on base. I'll take that, especially amongst all the bombers he will be surrounded by.

There is a difference between possible and likely. Anything is possible, but Arraez being top 57 all time in OBP is incredibly far from likely.

If it is likely, he's (IMO) the best prospect of all time, a near lock hall of Famer, and shouldn't be traded for anyone in baseball.

I wouldn't mind those uniforms showing up more often.

Sorry, but I have to give a thumbs down on those uniforms. Once was enough.

I'm not sure how you figured "top-11"? The MLB non-pitcher walk rate is 8.8% this year. So 7.7% would be below average. (Among MLB teams, 7.7% would rank 25th, just ahead of the Royals.)

 

And walk rates are also higher in the minor leagues. 9.5% in the IL this year, for example. 9.1-9.2% in the Southern League this year and last year, etc. And I'm not sure minor league BB% is all that correlated with SLG -- see LaMonte Wade.

 

Reflecting this, and the change in competition, ZiPS projects Arraez to have a 6.2% walk rate the rest of the MLB season, which is indeed up from their preseason projection of 5.5%, but a far cry from his current 16.7%!

 

Of course, Arraez could still be good/useful with a below average walk rate, or a sub-.400 OBP.

Yeah, that was a typo, it was supposed to be top 100.  My inclusion of his relatively low SLG was meant to demonstrate that despite not a lot of power, Arraez maintains a healthy walk rate, which you wouldn't expect for a guy that's seen nearly 80% of his MiLB hits go for singles (this year the MLB rate is 62%, IL is 62%, Southern League is 70%).

Arraez thus far has displayed elite contact ability (best among all players with 40+ PA's at 95.7%, 2nd at Zone contact at 98%, and 1st at Out-of-zone contact at 90.5%).  He also has the 21st lowest out of zone swing rate, 40th lowest in-zone swing rate, and 20th overall swing rate, which means he's actualyl allowing his contact skill to play.  Compare that to Astudillo (4th in contact, 6th in zone contact, 7th in non-zone contact; 6th HIGHEST non-zone swing, 2nd zone swing, 2nd overall).  This is why Luis Arraez has a .521 OBP and 198 wRC+, and Astudillo is at .276 and 67.