Gladly Paying a Prospect Tuesday for a Player Today

No team wins every trade, but competitive teams typically win more than they lose. Teams that can leverage offseason trades, instead of free agency, to fill out their roster are often rewarded with less monetarily expensive players, which can benefit a team like the Twins, whose payroll going into 2024 is uncertain.

To aid you in determining how much faith to put in the current Twins front office, I have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 in which the Twins traded away a prospect for a ready-made MLB player. You can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a "Buy" over the offseason. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet.

Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst.

2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota.
 For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa but came back as a minor-league free agent and debuted with Minnesota in 2022.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota.
Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot.

3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR) from Kansas City for Evan Sisk (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz (12.2 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota.
Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove centerfielder performed as expected defensively and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz debuted for Kansas City in 2023, and Sisk finished the year at AAA.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (369 PA, 98 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (13.2 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +1.8 bWAR for Minnesota.
Without a starting-caliber shortstop (before the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He was tendered a contract for 2024. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade - he had just been added to the 40-man roster - but has since thrown 13 mediocre innings, getting his first taste of MLB in 2023.

1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Christian Jimenez (has not reached Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is an 18-year-old in Rookie ball, so we’re several years from knowing if the trade was an unforced error.

3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (33.1 IP, 114 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota.
Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil had a promising short run in 2021 but is recovering from Tommy John.

Overall WAR added: 18.0
Overall, the Twins have successfully bought over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop, but given the group of prospects traded away, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway.