Do the Twins Have a Viable Process at the Plate?

I agree. The approach is horrible and getting bad results. They need to change it and start hitting RBI’s to all parts of the park. Its insane that they keep trying the same approach as it continues to fail. 

The team is hitting better as of late, a .245/.300/.417 (.717 OPS) slash line over the last 7 days, good for 7th in the AL and 13th in MLB. Compare this to an overall .205/.285/.349 (.634 OPS) season line, good for 13th in the AL and 27th overall and maybe they have started to figure things out and make adjustments.

I know that batting order is just a (potentially small) piece of the puzzle, but here’s something curious about yesterday’s lineup:

1. Kirilloff (.622 OPS hitting first)

2. Julien

3. Larnach (.641 OPS hitting third)

4. Kepler (.709 OPS hitting fourth)

I also realize that OPS is just one stat and that they’re giving AK a chance to lead off. However, if you just re-arrange our lefties here:

1. Kepler (.809 OPS hitting first)

2. Julien

3. Kirilloff (.770 OPS hitting third)

4. Larnach (.782 OPS hitting fourth)

42 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

The team is hitting better as of late, a .245/.300/.417 (.717 OPS) slash line over the last 7 days, good for 7th in the AL and 13th in MLB. Compare this to an overall .205/.285/.349 (.634 OPS) season line, good for 13th in the AL and 27th overall and maybe they have started to figure things out and make adjustments.

Is that because of the teams they have faced, White Sox and Detroit?

See ball

Hold bat on shoulder.

Watch ball go bye.

Walk back to dugout.

13 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Is that because of the teams they have faced, White Sox and Detroit?

Possibly, though Detroit is the 2nd best staff in MLB by ERA and WHIP and best by AVG against while the ChiSox are near the bottom in MLB in those same categories.

By your article Ted it sounds that the Twins have been trying to change their "all or nothing" approach for some time now, I beg to differ. Going into the off-season they stated that they weren't changing anything and that they weren't concerned about the SOs. Entering spring training, their solution to the too many SOs was to have their "all or nothing" hitters change nothing while acquiring mediocre at best contact hitters Santana & Margot (bad idea) to balance things out, Twins broadcasting their intent of doubling down on their approach made it easy for the league to prepare for it (like laying off throwing FBs & throw a lot of off-speed). 

It appears to me that with the poor production early in the season, they are just starting to try something else. You can't change overnight what you spent seasons incorporating especially not having a spring training to start it. IMO FO even with the poor results, they'll still want to cling to their philosophy & try to spin some stats that try to make us think that maybe it's the players, coaches, owners or anything else except their philosophy is the problem.

I get it that launch angle and hitting for power are vital. This roster is very one-dimensional and we can't steal bases or even run the bases very well due to the nature of the roster. So when the HRs don't show up, it's very difficult to produce runs. Even in this era it seems like the best offenses have at least some ability to manufacture runs without the long ball.

I think it’s complicated. Data is pretty clear that walks and power correlate to scoring the most runs. So the Twins clearly try to work counts and try to do damage when they get a pitch they are looking for. They are literally looking for a certain pitch in a certain spot and are using this prepared game plan to know what that pitch should be.  They use this approach even with two strikes. 
Sounds good. Now here are the practical realities of this approach. As you work the count a game of chicken begins: the closer you get to a walk the closer you get to a strikeout. The more strikes you have against you the more your batting average plummets. If you don’t walk but you don’t get your pitch you strike out looking. If you don’t walk but get your pitch and swing and miss you strike out swinging. Doing damage in modern baseball means yanking it to the pull side which leaves you vulnerable to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In consideration of all of these factors what you get is an approach where the success rate is going to vary highly which we clearly see. Within a game it might be acceptable- as long as it works a couple of times you are likely to put up crooked numbers. What we see is the variability stretches across games and series leaving us with games where we literally have no chance to win. I think this is the reason Rocco pinch hits so early in games. This style is predicated on getting a couple of ripe chances a game and putting up all the runs needed in those couple chances. Two last thoughts- I’ve always believed the old adage that in the big leagues you are likely to get only one good pitch to hit in an at bat. If that pitch comes in the early part of the at bat and isn’t one the scouting report says to look for it is taken for a strike and the at bat is likely lost. We see this all the time and is what is eating Julien up right now. Second thought is that the strict adherence to the game plan has essentially turned our lineup into guess hitters. Not long ago that was a derogatory term for someone who had lost bat speed and had to guess to get the bat to the zone on time. End result is that you end up with very little ability to adapt to something unexpected. This would also be a big reason why they don’t go the other way anymore. They can’t adapt to a pitch on the outside part of the plate that they aren’t looking for so they just don’t swing at it and hope it gets called a ball. If it’s a strike they just go sit down. People smarter than me figure this stuff out so I’m sure there are several layers of nuance to it but the basic premise and its outcomes (good and bad) are what we see every game. 

Could it be managing by analytics only?  I would think a good coach would use instincts more that analytics?

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Welcome to Twins Daily Aaron!

Thank you! I’ve been following Tom F on YouTube for a while now, so I figured it was time to get on here

I will tip my cap to Julien last night. One of his later at bats he had two strikes and the pitcher threw a beauty back door cutter right on the black. No chance but Julien flipped his bat out there and managed the weakest foul ball. Next pitch was a cutter down but middle and Eddy had a good rip at it and just missed it. That was a good at bat. He spoiled the pitchers pitch and the reward was a shot at a much better pitch to hit. 

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I will tip my cap to Julien last night. One of his later at bats he had two strikes and the pitcher threw a beauty back door cutter right on the black. No chance but Julien flipped his bat out there and managed the weakest foul ball. Next pitch was a cutter down but middle and Eddy had a good rip at it and just missed it. That was a good at bat. He spoiled the pitchers pitch and the reward was a shot at a much better pitch to hit. 

It was one of many Ks by Julien, nothing more.

Let's not get too excited over the somewhat improved stats by winning three and shortly 4 games from the White Sox.  They masquerade as a major league team but in reality aren't much better than a AA team.  The fact is they are terrible.  Any conclusions that the Twins bats are back after playing them is really a stretch.  Twins are still playing overall poor baseball just not as poor as the liely White Sox.  Next week we should win all 3 games in Chicago.  Then we start playing real teams again.  We shall see. Maybe beating up on the dregs will somehow get us in a positive mode.  I am not holding my breath.