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For more than two decades, the Minnesota Twins failed to develop starting pitching with any consistency. When Derek Falvey was hired in 2016, one of the primary hopes was that he could change that. He had helped build Cleveland's well-regarded pitching development system, and fans in Minnesota envisioned something similar taking root here.
It didn’t happen overnight, but over the past couple of years, there were real signs of progress. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober emerged as very productive starters at the major league level. Simeon Woods Richardson broke through in 2024. David Festa and Zebby Matthews climbed the ladder. Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Charlee Soto, and Connor Prielipp represended depth, pedigree, and momentum. The idea that Minnesota had finally built a sustainable pitching pipeline started to take hold.
But now, in 2025, that belief is being tested. Nearly every name in that group has encountered struggles, setbacks, or injury concerns. It’s not time to declare the system broken, but it’s fair to revisit the optimism and ask whether we may have gotten ahead of ourselves.
Ryan remains a clear success story. Acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade, he has developed into a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter and a key piece of the team’s future. He’s one of the few players in this conversation whose stock has held steady, or even improved.
Ober is another developmental win. A 12th-round pick who turned into a big-league starter is a major credit to the front office. But this season has brought concerns. His fastball velocity has dipped into the upper 80s and low 90s, his ERA has crept over 4.50 again, and his mechanics are completely out of whack. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter than the mid-rotation mainstay he resembled in the past. There’s still plenty of value there, but his trajectory has shifted.
Meanwhile, Woods Richardson was a key contributor in 2024, helping stabilize the rotation early in the year. In 2025, he’s struggled to miss bats, been optioned to Triple-A, and returned more out of necessity than performance. His ERA sits over 5.00, and his strikeout rate is a career low. There’s still promise in his arm, but he hasn’t looked like someone the Twins can count on every fifth day.
Festa looked like he might be ready to make the leap. He finished last season strong, and expectations were high entering this year. But in 2025, he’s battled shoulder fatigue and inconsistency, posting a 6.39 ERA and struggling to pitch deep into games. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he has only reached five innings once all year. Festa still has youth and tools, but this season has been a step backward.
Matthews showed up to spring training with major buzz. He pitched well in Triple-A and earned a promotion. His four starts with the Twins were a mixed bag, and he’s since landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. It’s far too soon to make any declarations, but shoulder issues are always worrisome for young starters, especially those who rely on high-end velocity.
Behind them, depth is looking thinner than expected. Andrew Morris is on the IL with a forearm strain after an uneven run in Triple-A. Marco Raya has a 7.59 ERA in 13 starts and has taken a significant step back. Even his long-term role as a starter now feels uncertain. Connor Prielipp, who was once one of the most intriguing arms in the system, has pitched this year but is now trending more toward a relief profile than a rotation piece.
Soto, CJ Culpepper, and others bring upside, but they are still a ways off and have yet to face advanced competition. Counting on them for meaningful big-league innings anytime soon would be premature.
To be fair, none of this is unique to the Twins. Pitching development is incredibly difficult, and arm injuries are more common than ever in today's game. But it also raises the question, is this just normal turbulence in the development process, or is there something about the system itself that still hasn’t quite clicked?
This front office deserves credit for finding Ryan, developing Ober, and building some bullpen depth. But if pitching was supposed to be the calling card, and if the position-player development hasn’t been a major strength, the bar has to be higher.
We’re not here to declare the pipeline a failure. There is still potential in Festa. Zebby could bounce back. Raya, Morris, Prielipp, they’re not done yet. But the shine has worn off a bit, and almost every name that carried hope into the year now comes with questions.
It’s fair to wonder if we crowned the Twins’ pitching pipeline too soon.
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- Patzky, twinzcynic and IndyTwinsFan
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