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Major League Baseball's current free agency model enables teams to extend a qualifying offer to free agents who are looking at big offseason paydays. As MLB explains:
"In the qualifying offer system, clubs wishing to receive compensatory Draft picks for the loss of a free agent can make a one-year 'qualifying offer,' worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players, to their impending free agents prior to the onset of free agency."
This year, that equates to a one-year, $20.3 million deal. Given their payroll outlay circumstances, such a short-term pact to bring back the co-ace of of their 2023 rotation would be ideal for the Twins. That's why offering the QO to Gray is a total no-brainer.
It's widely expected he will decline the offer and test free agency, which would yield a silver lining in the form of highly-valuable 2024 draft compensation. But then, the Twins front office is left to try and replace a Sonny Gray-sized hole in their rotation.
The dominoes will soon begin to fall. Once the World Series concludes, teams have five days to decide whether to extend the QO, a mere formality on the Twins' part. From that point, Gray will have 10 days to accept or reject the offer.
In other words: we're closing in on a three-week window that will decide Gray's future (or lack of one) with the Twins.
Personally, I think it is very likely he will reject the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a total lock.
Here are a few factors that lead me to believe it's at least possible Gray could shock the world and accept the qualifying offer to return and run it back with the Twins for one more year.
He cares more about winning than money.
"I'll say it because it's honest: Money is not the ultimate factor for me," Gray said after the Twins were eliminated from the playoffs. "Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.”
Granted, this was uttered in the same breath as Gray acknowledged he was "going to become a free agent,” but hey, people can change their minds over time. And maybe, as he reflects on the season that was, and the landscape ahead, the veteran starter will come to realize he'll have a tough time finding any situation as prime as Minnesota if he wants to confidently make it back the playoffs.
With a young emergent core powering a star-led team in a horrible division, the Twins are well positioned for success in 2024 and beyond. Meanwhile, an oft-mentioned destination for Gray in the offseason is St. Louis. I get that it's a storied franchise but the Cardinals finished in last place with 71 wins this year. They got dusted by the Pirates.
Gray wants to be valued appropriately, which is very much his right. Twenty million bucks is a pretty appropriate value, though it wouldn't come with any additional years of guaranteed money, and that is obviously the trade-off he must weigh. Then again, this is a guy who openly contemplated retirement in July.
"It's not about the money," Gray echoed at the time. "It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it.”
Sounds like someone who might see value in keeping his options open. A one-year contract that pays almost twice the highest salary he's ever earned would accomplish that. And it might be even more appealing when considering this: a realistic assessment of his situation suggests Gray might not be able to command quite the contract he hopes to land.
Several factors may limit Gray's market as a free agent.
Would Gray make more in a total free agency deal than the $20 million he would be guaranteed from accepting the QO? Undoubtedly. Will he make enough to render that decision completely moot? I'm not so sure.
Don't get me wrong, Gray is definitely hitting the market at a favorable time. He's coming off one of the best seasons of his career, in which he was one of the league's best pitchers. And this free agent class is fairly light on high-end starters. He'll have plenty of interest.
But front offices are fully aware that Gray is now 34, and that his performance in 2023 bore marks of unsustainability (ERA: 2.79, xERA: 3.69). They know he's historically had durability issues, and that his results owed partially to a manager who protected him from running up pitch counts or facing lineups too many times. (Ironic, eh?)
I am not by any means trying to downplay what Gray did this year, nor the impact he brought to the Twins. He was very deservingly team MVP. All I'm saying is, it's easy to see how the right-hander might view his "appropriate value" differently from an analytics-minded executive trying to project his production over the next three or four years. Especially when you account for that pesky draft pick compensation.
The qualifying offer is, ostensibly, beneficial for MLB's competitive balance. But it has a tendency to screw over free agents by limiting their market through no fault of their own. This is a path that's been traveled by many players over the years, including a former Twin who stands out as a pertinent example.
Carl Pavano joined the Twins in 2009 as a veteran trade acquisition, 33 years old at the time, and pitched some of his better late-career ball in Minnesota. After co-leading the 2010 rotation, he came up short in a postseason start, leaving a sour taste as he looked ahead to free agency. Sound familiar?
The Twins offered Pavano the 2010 version of a qualifying offer. (Remember Type-A and Type-B free agents??) He declined, and was thus saddled with a tag meaning the team signing him would need to forfeit a high draft pick in addition to winning the salary bid.
Unsurprisingly, Pavano found a depressed market and ultimately ended up returning to the Twins, who got him at a discount (2 years, $16.5 million) specifically because they didn't need to give up a draft pick.
To be clear, Gray is a much better pitcher than Pavano, who astonishingly won 17 games with a 4.8 K/9 rate in 2010 – ah, what a different era of baseball – but examples like this are not uncommon. Unfortunately for Gray, his perceived weaknesses will only be magnified through the scope of his elevated cost, and that's a reality he needs to reckon with.
So, you look at this from Gray's perspective. He values winning above all, and just came close to making a deep postseason run. He isn't exactly sure how much longer he wants to keep playing. He has an opportunity to return for one year and $20 million, starring on a very likely playoff contender, in a situation where he's acclimated and comfortable.
And then, however that plays out, he can finally hit free agency for the first time, with no risk of running into another qualifying offer. He'll be fully in control. Maybe with a World Series title under his belt? Hey, we're just riffing here.
Ultimately, Gray will probably decide the upside of testing the open market over the comfort and assurances of staying in Minnesota for one more year. No one could blame him. All I'm saying is, I'm holding out hope until I officially hear otherwise.
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