ALDS Game 1 Preview: Twins at Yankees

ALDS Game 1

Minnesota Twins (101-61) @ New York Yankees (104-58)

Series: 0-0

Start Time: 7:07 PM ET / 6:07 PM CT

Forecast: High 50s and clear skies

Pitching Matchup: Jose Berrios, RHP vs. James Paxton, LHP

Lineups:

THE LOWDOWN

In this first round, Game 1 is monumental. Time Magazine noted two years ago that "ever since Major League Baseball instituted the best-of-five division series in 1995, 63 of the 88 contests have gone to whichever team won the first game." That's over 70 percent. Since then, seven out of eight Division Series have gone to the winner of Game 1. (It's worth noting that the Twins came out on the short side twice during that span, winning Game 1 but losing the ALDS to New York in both 2003 and 2004, but – channeling Baldelli – NO BEARING!)

This isn't the same level of single-game magnitude as the last time these two met in the postseason – a winner-takes-all Wild Card faceoff in 2017 – but it isn't too terribly far off, either.

The pressure is on New York, really. They will be in their element at Yankee Stadium, where they played .700 ball this season. They're throwing their hottest starter in Paxton, who went 10-0 with a 2.51 ERA in August and September. They expect to win this game and they probably should.

But the Twins have a few distinct things working in their favor as they look to disrupt New York's flow and flip the script.

1: They thrived on the road this year, with their .679 winning percentage nearly matching New York's at home. The Twins haven't lost a series opener on the road since the first week of July.

2: THEY. CAN. MASH. Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven and that has generally favored New York in these match-ups over the years. But this record-shattering Bomba Squad is another story. They're every bit as good as their counterparts and have been especially effective against left-handers, against whom the Twins are collectively raking to the tune of .285/.351/.521.

Speaking of which, let's break down the pitching matchup.

BERRIOS VS. THE YANKEES

Season Numbers (Overall): 200.1 IP, 14-8, 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

Season Numbers (vs. NYY): N/A

This will be Berrios's second postseason appearance. The first, of course, came against the same team in the same stadium. Berrios enetered in relief of Ervin Santana during the 2017 Wild Card Game and pitched three innings, allowing three runs on five hits while taking the loss. It wasn't a strong performance. But since then, Berrios has been a two-time All-Star while logging nearly 400 quality innings.

He has risen to the occasion in big spots. One instance that comes to mind was his much-hyped start last year in Puerto Rico, where he faced division rival Cleveland and hurled seven shutout innings. He was masterful against that same Indians team on Opening Day this year, blanking them over 7 2/3 frames.

But this kind of early-season dominance has become par for the course, and helps explain his pair of All-Star nods. What makes it a little harder to feel confident in the October version of Berrios is the way he's faded down the stretch in each of the past two seasons. This year, after posting a 3.00 ERA and holding opponents to a .238/.283/.388 before the break, the righty dropped to 4.64 and .268/.328/.428 in the second half.

Luckily, Berrios saw his velocity and whiffs normalize near the end of the year. This trend, in addition to the extra rest (he's gone six days between starts), offers reason to believe.

A full-strength Berrios is capable of keeping this high-powered Yankees lineup in check. Anything less is liable to put a lot of pressure on the Twins hitters and bullpen.

PAXTON VS. THE TWINS

Season Numbers (Overall): 150.2 IP, 15-6, 3.82 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Season Numbers (vs. MIN): 1 GS, 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 K, 3 BB

Paxton was New York's marquee offseason addition, acquired via trade from Seattle in exchange for a package of prospects headlined by pitchers Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson. The 30-year-old left-hander was very uneven in the first half for New York. He missed almost all of May with left knee inflammation, which cropped up during a shortened May 3rd start against Minnesota.

As we alluded earlier, though, Paxton pulled it together after the break, leading the Yankees to an 11-0 record in his August and September starts. He was borderline unhittable for much of the second half.

This will be Paxton's first time pitching in the playoffs, as Seattle failed to qualify in any of his six seasons there. But given that he notoriously kept his cool when a bald eagle landed on his back at Target Field in April of 2018, it seems safe to say he'll be unfazed by the moment.

One thing to watch: Paxton left his last start of the season, against Texas on September 27th, after one shaky inning due to tightness in his left glute. An MRI revealed only "a little nerve irritation," and obviously the southpaw has been cleared to take the hill one week later, but there's a possibility he won't quite be at 100%.

Another thing to watch: Paxton has allowed 23 home runs this year, and 21 have been hit by righties. That seems to bear noting as Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver roll into town.

THE TIME IS NOW

We look forward to seeing many of you at the viewing party for tonight's game at Brother's in Downtown Minneapolis. It's gonna be wild. It's gonna be intense. It's gonna be loud.

But here's hoping that when it's all said and done on Friday night, Yankee Stadium is filled only with the sound of silence.

As always, Twins Daily has a live game thread for tonight's game where you can chat and follow along with other users. You can find that thread here.