Worley to the Pirates

[Hugh Morris]

Remember that a 24 year old Vance Worley was planning a life featuring him, a fiancee and home ownership in Pennsylvania two short years ago and being sent away from that happened to coincide perfectly with his career (and body) going pearshaped.

 

I'm not saying it's likely that he expressed a lack of desire to remain in the organization and asked to be released or traded back to PA-I just find that a more reasonable scenario than Ryan and Antony fanning themselves with the indeterminate amount of cash they demanded from the Pirates. Alternatively, they may not have seen space for him in Rochester and offered him to a team that wanted him as opposed to simply firing the guy after he'd already been passed on by every team in baseball.

 

It's an utterly mundane move by a team with too many prospect-and "prospect"-arms in AAA and who have seen enough of a player who hasn't flashed competence since he entered the organization. I've yet to see any quote or allusion by someone "in the know" that suggests there was any ill will or intrigue involved.

 

If we're going to focus on a topic on which nobody has any idea what actually transpired, can it at least involve conspiracy theories? At least Pirates are already involved...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So yeah, they "didn't like the guy". More accurately, they like others better. They like Meyer, May, Darnell, Johnson, and Gilmartin better as starters in Rochester. They like Tonkin, Olivares, Pressly, Guerra, Hoffman, Thompson, and Ibarra better as relievers down there, apparently.

 

So, yeah, it was a personnel decision, and not a complicated one at that in my view. He became a commodity with no significant value over the masses in AAA.

Obviously Worley had little value when they traded him, but you don't "fire" a guy just because you don't like him. This is a team who is trotting out Scott Diamond, Jason Bartlett and Kurt Suzuki instead of going full on rebuild because they see value in them for some reason.

[cmathewson]

That's understandable, but it doesn't change the fact that discarding Worley primarily because there were no relief or start innings to be had without blocking a more valuable prospect in one of the most pitching-starved organizations in baseball doesn't make any sense.

 

It's not as pitching starved as you might think. It was in 2011, when the best prospects in the system were recovering from TJ surgery. Since then, they've added several top 100 prospects while the others have recovered. It's now one of the best systems in baseball for pitching.

[cmathewson]

Obviously Worley had little value when they traded him, but you don't "fire" a guy just because you don't like him. This is a team who is trotting out Scott Diamond, Jason Bartlett and Kurt Suzuki instead of going full on rebuild because they see value in them for some reason.

 

Bartlett will probably opt out at the end of spring. They are actively shopping Diamond, who is not likely to be on the team even if they can't trade him. Suzuki will be a backup by the All Star break.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If we're going to focus on a topic on which nobody has any idea what actually transpired, can it at least involve conspiracy theories? At least Pirates are already involved...

I think this is the most drawn-out blockbuster trade ever where the Twins send two reclamation projects who turn out to be superstars and Pedro Florimon over three seasons to the Pirates for PTBNL which will end up being Alen Hanson SS in the a West Virginia Affilliate.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Bartlett will probably opt out at the end of spring. They are actively shopping Diamond, who is not likely to be on the team even if they can't trade him. Suzuki will be a backup by the All Star break.

That's exactly my point, this organization gives up on no one. Bill effing Smith is still in the organization for crying out loud. Why do you hold on to a 35 year old SS who is 1 for March this long unless you think you can coach him up enough to be viable? Why would you bother shopping Diamond who's had a season that wasn't horrible in his entire career, but throw out Worley who granted had zero value today, but had several fairly successful seasons before coming here? I'm sure Worley asked for a trade/release but that doesn't mean you wash your hands of him in two days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Scouting and evaluation isn't just about finding talent. Sometimes it means spotting a lack of talent or potential, and when it is especially clear-cut, you may as well act decisively.

 

The Twins can't keep every pitcher they think has a 1% chance of putting it together someday. If they're not happy here, it probably even lowers those slim odds further. It's just not a good use of resources (Rochester roster spot, coaching attention, etc.). Just like they can't instantly give 1000 MLB AB to every AAAA hitter they've had, either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's exactly my point, this organization gives up on no one. Bill effing Smith is still in the organization for crying out loud. Why do you hold on to a 35 year old SS who is 1 for March this long unless you think you can coach him up enough to be viable?

 

Might just be a favor to Bartlett. Keeps him in a few games, and maybe some other scout sees something they like or an injury opens up an opportunity elsewhere. Maybe if he doesn't get an offer by then, he reconsiders and goes to Rochester or even joins the organization as a coach.

[Guest]

Moving Worley to another team is a good move. However, the timing and return is questionable. Because the return is money and the team has plenty of money, the return has little chance of improving on-field results. His carrying cost was far below the Blackburn line (kind of a corollary of the Mendoza line). Therefore, it would have been expected that the Twins would hang on to him until they could get a player that might be useful.

 

The only ways this trade makes sense at this time are (1) the team felt that this was the best offer it would ever get for Worley, now or later; and/or (2) they feel that carrying him at Rochester, even with the possibility of enhancing his trade value, would be a net negative, most likely based on impact to other players.

 

That said, it's really surprising that Raley, a Cubs waiver cast-off, is considered more valuable than the centerpiece of last year's big trade, who was also the opening day starter. Hopefully there is a review going on to determine how his weaknesses were missed by the scouting team during the trade discussions and by management when slotting him as the opening day starter.

[Guest USAFChief]

That said, it's really surprising that Raley, a Cubs waiver cast-off, is considered more valuable than the centerpiece of last year's big trade, who was also the opening day starter. Hopefully there is a review going on to determine how his weaknesses were missed by the scouting team during the trade discussions and by management when slotting him as the opening day starter.

Concur.

[spoofbonser]

Bold Prediction: He has injury which is discovered by Pittsburg staff. Undergoes surgery. Rebuilds career out of the bullpen. Bounces to the Nationals, Twins trade 2014 draft top catching prospect to bring him in as bulldog-type closer

[deanlambrecht]

I'm pretty shocked by this move. I thought they'd try to salvage something out of Worley, not just give up on him entirely.

 

And it's strange that the Pirates didn't simply claim him when he was placed on waivers just six days ago.

 

*scratches head*

 

Exactly where I'm at on this. It's not like we need the money, and if he had figured something out in AAA he could have added value to our team in performance or trade value. I don't think we owed him any favors, so it's really the timing of the move that makes little sense. Absolutely no reason to do this now.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Comparing Worley's 2011 with the Phillies to 2013 with the Twins on Fangraphs, a couple of things stand out.

 

In 2011 he had a LOB% of 78% compared with 65% last year. Someone with better stats knowledge can confirm, but I'm guessing around 70% is average. Some of that 2011 success is therefore probably a bit of a mirage propped up with a bit of high strand rate luck.

 

Fangraphs also shows Worley throwing an 85mph slider >20% of the time in 2011, whereas last year that pitch was ditched in favour of an 82mph cutter. Does anyone know if that was a conscious decision, or has an injury concern been preventing him from using the slider properly? If the Fangraphs data is right, that transition occurred in 2012 (4% slider, 19% cutter) which makes me wonder if the Phillies saw something in that (health, confidence, mechanics?) which persuaded them to part with him in the Revere trade.

 

It seems Worley is not the pitcher he was (or was made to appear). Who knows whether he can be again (he has youth on his side), but he's in reclamation project territory now for sure.

[John Bonnes]

I just don't get this. Maybe they just wanted to get him out of here? I have to say, I'll be shocked if we ever regret it. I don't know what is wrong with him, but it's really wrong.

[TheLeviathan]

Pittsburgh landing him is the scariest part of this. The biggest adjustment they made for Liriano was adjusting how he used his pitches. A few people here have suggested Worley's pitch selection with us has been part of the problem.

 

We'll see if it's something that simple or he's just done.

[Ultima Ratio]

Must be a whole lotta bad in this apple. Don't know how else to square it.

[Hugh Morris]

Hopefully there is a review going on to determine how his weaknesses were missed by the scouting team during the trade discussions and by management when slotting him as the opening day starter.

 

Out of curiosity, under a hypothetical situation in which this review goes public, would you accept a conclusion from scouts and management that stated:

 

"Players return from injury differently, and while we recognized there was a risk that Worley would not regain his earlier ability, that risk was outweighed by benefit of having a cost-controlled pitcher who put up anything similar to Vance's 2011 season"?

 

Especially given that the other piece of the trade was a player 1 year removed from the top 100 prospect list who happens to be a relatively largebodied pitcher with the stamina to start... and with a potentially elite fastball who'd shown some progress in curbing control issues while lowering his flyball tendencies?

[Oldgoat_MN]

...

But in the end, it boils down to be being ready when you're called on.

...

 

Birdwatcher - that was perfect.

Cuz that's what it always comes down to.

[jokin]

Other pitchers with less potential, let alone far less actual success in the majors, have been given more chances by the Twins to prove themselves than Worley was. Good heavens, Kyle Gibson is the same age as Worley, has never succeeded in the majors, was terrible with the Twins last year... and he's been awarded the Twins' only open rotation spot.

 

Also, doesn't it seem like there's almost no chance that Rochester doesn't rely on at least one pitcher this season who is the very definition of a non-prospect?

 

 

I think I saw Vasquez and Raley with their hands up......

[jokin]

That said, it's really surprising that Raley, a Cubs waiver cast-off, is considered more valuable than the centerpiece of last year's big trade, who was also the opening day starter. Hopefully there is a review going on to determine how his weaknesses were missed by the scouting team during the trade discussions and by management when slotting him as the opening day starter.

 

Concur.

 

Double that Concurrence, but instead of just a "review" that ends up inevitably continuing the sweeping of mistakes out of town when no one is noticing, how about an ad hoc Internal Accountability Review Board that can get to the bottom of how bungled this trade ended up, and make the necessary changes in procedures and personnel, as needed. I am stunned how so many here are just willing to say, "oh well, nothing to see here, let's move on..." Brooks Raley isn't good enough for the Cubs, but offers more hope to this club (and a roster spot) than a proven major league starter? My goodness, look around baseball, is there ANY other team remotely close to this situation, ie, a team whose 2013 Opening Day SP, who started 3 of the first 10 games that year, was just traded away for essentially a few buckets of balls?

[jokin]

It's not as pitching starved as you might think. It was in 2011, when the best prospects in the system were recovering from TJ surgery. Since then, they've added several top 100 prospects while the others have recovered. It's now one of the best systems in baseball for pitching.

 

All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?

[Guest]

Out of curiosity, under a hypothetical situation in which this review goes public, would you accept a conclusion from scouts and management that stated:

 

"Players return from injury differently, and while we recognized there was a risk that Worley would not regain his earlier ability, that risk was outweighed by benefit of having a cost-controlled pitcher who put up anything similar to Vance's 2011 season"?

 

Especially given that the other piece of the trade was a player 1 year removed from the top 100 prospect list who happens to be a relatively largebodied pitcher with the stamina to start... and with a potentially elite fastball who'd shown some progress in curbing control issues while lowering his flyball tendencies?

That explanation would be a retroactive rationale for the deal and provide a surface level explanation for the failure ("Hey, things are a risk"), but it doesn't address the "what can we do to improve our results next time?" aspect of a good analysis. Other media imply that Ruben Amaro had reason to know that Worley's arm wasn't right and that advanced metrics show that much of his prior success was due to luck.

 

This explanation also doesn't really explain why he was the opening day starter last year. Couldn't the team assess during spring training that he was eminently hittable? Or did they look past that, because, at the time, he showed a real desire to "get after it?"

 

Further, at the time of the deal, Worley was presented as a sure thing and May was presented as a lottery ticket, whereas this explanation suggests that Worley was considered to be more like a Jared Burton lottery ticket - someone who was injured and had the chance to recover past success, albeit at a much larger cost than Jared Burton.

[nicksaviking]

I heard the Twins got more money for Worley than the Red Sox got for selling Babe Ruth. Babe Ruth!!

 

How could the Twins say no to that kind of proposition from Pittsburgh?

[cmathewson]

All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?

 

I like May a lot. I still have hope for Wimmers. I think Baxendale has a shot. I like Melotakis. Eades has a chance to move quickly. All of those guys are mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guys. But you need those guys too.

 

The top prospects could move more quickly than young guys typically do. Berrios was supposed to be on the fast track. Thorpe could join him. Stewart is very advanced for his age. Gonsalves is a comer.

 

Point is, they have more depth than they've had in a long time. They can afford to lose Worley and chalk it up as a failed experiment. When you can't find room for a guy in Rochester, it's no big loss.

[GCTF]

I heard the Twins got more money for Worley than the Red Sox got for selling Babe Ruth. Babe Ruth!!

 

How could the Twins say no to that kind of proposition from Pittsburgh?

 

Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?

[beckmt]

All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?

Given the success of St. Louis with Wacha, I would expect the next wave to be here in about 2-3 years. Twins are well set up by TR signings to handle this. Meyer and or May will be here next year if not this year. Steward and possibly Thorpe or Berrios will be here in 2016 or 2017, that does not count either Kris Johnson or Gilmartin who might turn into something.

Not all trades work out well, but by 2015 or 2016 Revere was going to be a 4th outfielder here and have very little value. You get what value you can, some trades are not going to work out.

About the Pirates, Liarano is back to throwing mainly sliders(that is what wreaked his arm in the first place). That could mean he has 1-3 years before his next TJ surgery. Don Cooper (the White Sox pitching coach) is very highly respected in the baseball business. He could not fix Liarano.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not hand ringing over this deal....and my comment about money was meant to be humorous, but that didn't work, obviously. I'm still mocking the trade for Worley and May....that is the one that hurts.

[Major League Ready]

I just don't get this. Maybe they just wanted to get him out of here? I have to say, I'll be shocked if we ever regret it. I don't know what is wrong with him, but it's really wrong.

 

What I don't get is that not a single team felt he was worthy of a roster spot, yet many people here are upset we let him go. Do these posters know something that all of MLB does not know? Personally, I don't have even remotely close to enough information to judge this decision. The information we do have would suggest we are better off giving the AAA innings to the SPs already in the Rochester rotation.

[nicksaviking]

Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?

 

Off Broadway. But it's the classic "Springtime for Hitler."

[zenser]

I am a little surprised by this. I guess if and when an injury happens at the major league level or one of the 5 isn't performing, Deduno will move from the pen into the rotation. I guess Meyer or Diamond gets the 2nd and 3rd shot.