Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 1.0

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2677-Minnesota-Twins-Roster-Projection-1-0

[twinsfan34]

C: Pinto, Suzuki

1B: Mauer

2B: Dozier

SS: Florimon, Bartlett

3B: Plouffe, Escobar

LF: Willingham, Kubel

CF: Hicks, Presley

RF: Arcia

 

12 Pitchers

 

If Sano is hitting like a madman...do they try to trade Plouffe? Escobar has the LH split thing going for him.

 

How much better is Suzuki than Fryer/Herrmann?

 

I don't think the Twins can trade Kubel right after signing him..or can they? What if both Willingham and Kubel hit well? Hard to justify either in the OF at this point.

[jokin]

Seth, you mentioned Aaron Hicks in the OF discussion, but didn't put him on your depth list of 6. Any significance or assumption to him not being on that list?

 

What are the chances that a reliever or two are traded this spring to make room for one of the extra starters on the 25-man?

 

2 spots aren't clear in your scenario- do the Twins go with a 3rd catcher, a Jamey Carroll-type additional utility guy (Bartlett), a 5th OF, or another bat for those last 2 spots?

[twinstalker]

This is a depth the Twins haven't seen for quite a while. Unfortunately, it's very low-quality depth, but the first step is to have a choice, so that's progress. My biggest fears with this team are 1) Gardenhire has input into the decisions, 2) getting fooled by young hitters hitting in spring training, and 3) Chris Parmelee not getting a proper chance.

 

I'm not suggesting Parmelee's anything, really, but I'm afraid this is the year where he would prove if he's a legit MLBer and the Twins won't give him a proper chance to show it. This is a lost year, and if the Twins have a player there, they need to keep/use him as an asset. The whole world knows who Jason Kubel is, and that is...a minor league contract. Keeping Kubel cannot lead to anything positive for the Twins.

[stringer bell]

Pretty close to my projection. I have Bartlett making the club as the 25th player over Parmelee. I also have two out-of-options starters in the bullpen over Pressly and Thielbar. The Twins probably need a RH or switch hitter for that last position, Parmelee would replace LH hitters Kubel, Mauer, or Arcia.

[PseudoSABR]

So you're waiving Worley and Deduno? How do you see that playing out?

[RedBull34]

It honestly seems to me that the Twins are actually hoping a pitcher gets injured enough to be put of the 60 Day just to make things easier for them.

[Riverbrian]

Gotta echo Psuedo.

 

Worley, Deduno and Diamond... I'm not comfortable with any of them being given up on.

[savvyspy]

That looks like a 70 win roster to me. Pitching slightly better, horrendous lineup, bottom 10 in the league in defense. Yuck.

[jokin]

Gotta echo Psuedo.

 

Worley, Deduno and Diamond... I'm not comfortable with any of them being given up on.

 

The Twins were earnestly pursuing Garza, Arroyo and Yoon- presumably they were more comfortable than some of us in moving on with at least one of these names. They must still see the DL, a last-minute trade or sneaking someone through waivers as viable ploys.

[tobi0040]

My guess is Diamond is the 5th starter, Worley is in the pen, and Deduno magically needs some rehab (DL). Boy one additional signing like Drew or Cruz could make the lineup bearable. I know Sano is up soon and that will be exciting. But we have some big holes at SS, C, 3B for awhile, and a question mark in CF.

[ppearson50]

My guess is Diamond is the 5th starter, Worley is in the pen, and Deduno magically needs some rehab (DL). Boy one additional signing like Drew or Cruz could make the lineup bearable. I know Sano is up soon and that will be exciting. But we have some big holes at SS, C, 3B for awhile, and a question mark in CF.

 

I would love for us to sign Ervin Santana at the same contract Ubaldo just got - 4 and 48 million. Its better to have too much pitching then to suffer through another rotation full of pitchers with 5 ERAs.

If we signed Santana, we would still be under $100 million in payroll and we could trade someone like Correia or Gibson for some competition at shortstop for Florimon.

[jokin]

My guess is Diamond is the 5th starter, Worley is in the pen, and Deduno magically needs some rehab (DL). Boy one additional signing like Drew or Cruz could make the lineup bearable. I know Sano is up soon and that will be exciting. But we have some big holes at SS, C, 3B for awhile, and a question mark in CF.

 

Unless Hicks gets called up and absolutely siezes the job in CF, there's still a big hole there, too.

[stringer bell]

That looks like a 70 win roster to me. Pitching slightly better, horrendous lineup, bottom 10 in the league in defense. Yuck.

It is "yuck" going north, but by midseason, I expect Pinto and Sano to supplant the veterans at catcher and 3B respectively. I also believe we'll see Hicks by Memorial Day. Add in a September recall for Buxton and the table is set for a much improved lineup going forward. Meyer and Gibson probably will get their promotions sometime this season, as well. I'm not terribly optimistic about the present, but the near future looks really, really exciting.

[nicksaviking]

I think the Twins actively shop Duensing and Swarzak to create room with the #5 rotation spot logjam. I think this because I assume they would be easier to move than Diamond/Worley/Deduno.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, you mentioned Aaron Hicks in the OF discussion, but didn't put him on your depth list of 6. Any significance or assumption to him not being on that list?

 

What are the chances that a reliever or two are traded this spring to make room for one of the extra starters on the 25-man?

 

2 spots aren't clear in your scenario- do the Twins go with a 3rd catcher, a Jamey Carroll-type additional utility guy (Bartlett), a 5th OF, or another bat for those last 2 spots?

 

This is a roster projection as opposed to a depth chart. So, the 25 names mentioned are the 25 who I think will be on the MLB roster on opening day. Obviously the degree of confidence is more or less for some players than others. I think that answers the questions that you have.

[Seth Stohs]

So you're waiving Worley and Deduno? How do you see that playing out?

 

 

I don't know... In reality, based on the projection, the answer is yes, but my confidence level in that isn't very high. As has been mentioned, Thielbar and Pressly have options... it'll be interesting.

[thetank]

That looks like a 70 win roster to me. Pitching slightly better, horrendous lineup, bottom 10 in the league in defense. Yuck.

If it takes Sano and Bruxton a few years to be productive there may be a couple of years more of 90 losses.

[ppearson50]

I thought it was interesting that Gardy has already talked about carrying 13 pitchers and already is saying Florimon is his shortstop.

[jmlease1]

I would currently bet on Deduno being the 5th starter with Gibson starting out in AAA because he has options left and so he can pitch consistently every 5th day. I'm thinking Diamond beats out Pressly for the last bullpen spot so they don't lose him for nothing (which actually might work well for his career).

 

I think Hicks will beat out Mastroianni, but I don't know if he'll get the start. I do see Willingham playing a lot more DH than LF this season, but he'll probably be the Opening Day starter there. Parmelee might get the DH slot, but I agree Kubel probably has the edge.

 

This might be the first time in several years where I don't object to the Twins carrying 12 pitchers.

 

I want Pinto to be on the opening day roster, but I'm betting Gardy will want someone who "can really pick it back there" or something equally silly. That said, Pinto isn't going to hit like he did in Sept, but his bat should be a real asset at catcher and this offense needs it.

[TheLeviathan]

Boy, when you put it on paper like that - I'm pretty sure I'd take the under on 70. Man I hope Sano is ready from the start.

[gmarais66]

I thought it was interesting that Gardy has already talked about carrying 13 pitchers and already is saying Florimon is his shortstop.

 

I know most people are dismissing Bartlett as nothing more than a possible utility player, but I seriously think he'll end up being the starting shortstop... Florimon is a horrible hitter, at best, and I don't see him making any significant improvement in that area this year... I think it's a good bet that Bartlett can hit much better than .221/.281/.330....

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I was guessing that the depth in left-handed relievers and marginal starters they've been accumulating might play into an attempt to trade Diamond, Duensing or Thielbar to clear up the pitching situation a bit, with one of those guys traded and the other two in the bullpen. I'm hoping for Worley to take and run with the chance to win a rotation spot again.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I agree with others--the ceiling for this roster is about 75 wins.

 

I project that Chris Hermann (3rd C, 5th OF) takes one of your OF spots. I hope its Mastro or Pressley because they are basically 4th OF not starting CF. I hope the Twins give Parmalee a real shot this year--playing most games--some at RF some at DH. Play Arcia every day. If that means benching Willingham, so be it. I would also give some time in RF to Plouffe in anticipation of Sano arriving in May. That probably means Kubel doesn't make the team.

 

As to pitching--realizing this is all guesswork at this point--I pick Worley to have a comeback year and take the 5th starter role--with Diamond going to the pen to replace Theilbar.

[Seth Stohs]

I thought it was interesting that Gardy has already talked about carrying 13 pitchers and already is saying Florimon is his shortstop.

 

Not sure why the latter is surprising to so many. He was the starter all last season. He's one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball (a pretty important position). And, they didn't bring in any competition. so, why would Florimon not be the starter??

[Seth Stohs]

I agreed that this is a 70-75 win roster at this time... and I think most have been saying that this is a transition year from the stop-gaps to the prospects. By July, the roster could be 40% different.

[ppearson50]

I guess I am still holding out a little hope they sign Drew. But I seriously doubt it will happen. I like Florimon but I just don't ever seeing him hit much more than last year.

[Seth Stohs]

I guess I am still holding out a little hope they sign Drew. But I seriously doubt it will happen. I like Florimon but I just don't ever seeing him hit much more than last year.

 

I don't either (and that doesn't bother me terribly much, especially if the rest of the linup is improved)... but until they sign Drew or some competition, I don't know what else Gardy is supposed to say.

 

Bartlett hasn't played since like May of 2012 at all, so I don't know that he would be able to beat him out... I would think some Rochester time would be good to shake off some cobwebs. And, based on his play the last couple of years he did play, not sure I'd expect a whole lot more.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd prefer Hicks in some capacity over the rest of the backups in the OF.

 

Also, hoping Worley makes good and grabs the 5 spot.

 

I wouldn't have a problem giving Pinto a little time in AAA.

[stringer bell]

jmlease1--to borrow a phrase. If Hicks ain't starting, he ain't departin' (north to Minnesota). It would be foolish to the max to take a guy coming off a disappointing year and deposit him on the bench. I think the sentiment is similar with Pinto. Both guys have much less than a half season at AAA and might benefit from some more minor league seasoning.