Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 1.0

[Shane Wahl]

Kurt Suzuki, Chris Herrmann

Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee

Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar

Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar

Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar

(8)

Josh Willingham, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Alex Presley, Jason Kubel, Chris Herrmann

(5)

 

Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, (Deduno DL somehow)

 

Vance Worley (LR), Anthony Swarzak (MR), Caleb Thiebar, Michael Tonkin, Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins

 

(12)

 

Fryer can't be. Please! Herrmann is a lefty so he has the advantage. Also, a roster with Suzuki, Fryer, and Herrmann (although I think Herrmann can be a .650+ OPS backup at 3 spots) makes for a bad bench (likely precluding either Kubel or Parmelee). Parmelee being able to play LF would be very important for him. He has to know this. A starting OF of Presley-Hicks-Arcia with Willingham DHing, and a bench of Kubel, Parmelee, Herrmann/Suzuki, and Escobar isn't bad. It isn't good, but at least the defensive liability of having Willingham and Arcia out there is reduced.

 

Mastro, Colabello, Bartlett, and Beresford are good fill-in options in AAA. Pinto can force his way up with Sano, injecting life into the lineup.

 

With the 5th spot in the rotation in doubt right now, I think seeing Gibson-Meyer-May at the top of the Rochester rotation (this time, the Twins can be smart about a prospect's AAA innings and limit Meyer there) would be good. Deduno would be my choice for the 5th spot, but barring any other injury, maybe they find one for him to see what can be done about Diamond/Worley. Worley makes more sense initially coming out of the bullpen.

 

Ryan Pressley gets sent to Rochester to work as a starter. Darnell and Gilmartin can be starters 5 and 6 there.

 

With that, the bullpen seems pretty clear-cut.

[Shane Wahl]

And in September, it could/maybe should be:

 

Pinto, Herrmann, Suzuki

Mauer, Plouffe

Dozier, Santana

Florimon, Santana

Sano, Plouffe

 

(9)

 

Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Herrmann, Plouffe, Kubel

 

(4)

 

Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May

 

Diamond/Worley/Pressly, Ibarra, Watts, Achter, Thielbar, Tonkin, Perkins

 

(12)

 

Obviously I hope for a number of trades involving Willingham, Correia, Swarzak, Fien, Duensing, and perhaps even Escobar. And expecting Mike Pelfrey to Blackburn it up.

[Shane Wahl]

And who knows about Rosario in LF or RF by that time too . . .

[big dog]

My guess is Diamond is the 5th starter, Worley is in the pen, and Deduno magically needs some rehab (DL). Boy one additional signing like Drew or Cruz could make the lineup bearable. I know Sano is up soon and that will be exciting. But we have some big holes at SS, C, 3B for awhile, and a question mark in CF.

 

Personally, I think the only thing signing Cruz does is slow the improvement of our young players. I would hate for him to take ABs and field improvement away from Arcia or even from Parmalee. Drew's a different story, if people have given up on Florimon (I haven't, but I respect the right of others to do so).

[nicksaviking]

With Seth's projections the only righthanded bench options look to be Darin Mastroianni, Eduardo Escobar and Eric Fryer. I don't think that seems like a smart move. I think Pinto makes the team due to the lack of any reasonable RH bench bats.

[Shane Wahl]

With Seth's projections the only righthanded bench options look to be Darin Mastroianni, Eduardo Escobar and Eric Fryer. I don't think that seems like a smart move. I think Pinto makes the team due to the lack of any reasonable RH bench bats.

 

With Sano in June, Plouffe becomes one. That's really the only hope there. Plouffe and Kubel makes for a good RH/LH combo.

 

Colabello could be an option until then.

[blindeke]

I thought it was interesting that Gardy has already talked about carrying 13 pitchers and already is saying Florimon is his shortstop.

 

Gardy is so frustrating. WHY Gard WHY???

[Shane Wahl]

I am not clear on why this is a 70-win team. It already looks to be better than that given the significantly improved rotation and Mauer replacing Morneau plus Arcia developing better. Those are givens. Hicks, the 5th starter, any sort of bounceback from Willingham and Kubel, and any progress from Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon added into that and this would seem to be a mid-upper 70-win team.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I'm with Shane Wahl on Ryan Pressly--I thought I heard the Twins had interest in stretching him out into a starter. My guess is he doesn't make the team, and I'd lean toward Deduno getting his bullpen spot.

 

Suggestions that Deduno will start the year on the DL seem like wishful thinking to me.

[Kwak]

The Twins didn't extend Gardenhire to not let him manage his way and incorporate his ideas. He will begin with 13 pitchers (and with the full blessing of Ryan!) because that's his way (Ryan's too!). Lots of options--just not very good options--but that's another thread. There will be 3 catchers (and don't include Mauer as one!)--because that's the way they (he) do things.

Instead of a huge competition for pitchers and jobs--there will be a mock competition. We already know four starters, a fifth? I'm guessing it will be a lot like 2004--four locks and a rotation of others for the fifth (spot) starts. That make keeping 13 pitchers appear to be a useful if not necessary. Leopards don't lose their spots, zebras their stripes, and the Twins Their Way of Doing Things. If change was desired--we would have seen it in the managerial positions. There wasn't any change there and we shouldn't expect any change in team philosophy. This season is "back to the veterans": the four locks in the rotation, the ex-Twins, and a sprinkling of veterans from other teams. The youth--stays in the minors. Until when you ask? Next year is my guess.

[TheLeviathan]

I am not clear on why this is a 70-win team. It already looks to be better than that given the significantly improved rotation and Mauer replacing Morneau plus Arcia developing better. Those are givens. Hicks, the 5th starter, any sort of bounceback from Willingham and Kubel, and any progress from Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon added into that and this would seem to be a mid-upper 70-win team.

 

im im very high on Arcia long term but this year is not a given to be better. Sophomore slumps are not uncommon even for great players. This could be a tough adjustment year leading to great things later.

 

While Mauer may improve on Morneau....Suzuki doesn't replace Mauer. That may be a net loss.

 

70 wins is a 9 win improvement from their pyth last year. To me that's significant improvement and a far more reasonable projection.

[richardkr34]

If it takes Sano and Bruxton a few years to be productive there may be a couple of years more of 90 losses.

 

 

Nah, that's not how it would work. Buxton would be replacing, let's say, Hicks' .192/.259/.338 line while playing comparable defense.

 

Sano would be replacing Plouffe's .701 OPS (18th out of 21 among 3B).

 

They don't need to "produce", they just need to not be awful. It has more to do with starting pitching more than anything.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

The more I look at the current 40 man roster and the free agent signings this season, the more I am convinced that the team is trying to compete - but are really expecting the youth movement to start in earnest after this year. They have players without options that can fill roles, providing more time for those that do to continue to develop. The question is when they will flip the switch - June, August, September or not until next season for players like Meyer, Gibson, May and Sano. I have a hard time believing that they are going to waive players like Parmalee, Worley, Diamond and Deduno without giving them one more hard look. In the meantime, I would not be surprised if they make an effort to get some of our prospects playing together in the minors - Buxton, Sano, Rosario in New Britain. Meyer, May, Gibson, Gilmartin in AAA. Get these guys playing like a team.

[tobi0040]

I agreed that this is a 70-75 win roster at this time... and I think most have been saying that this is a transition year from the stop-gaps to the prospects. By July, the roster could be 40% different.

 

I put them about there too. I think the rotation is worth 6-7 more wins. The other thing is the division has probably regressed a bit too.

 

Cleveland was a lucky 90 win team and they lose Jimenez's 3.30 ERA. Masterson may not repeat the 3.45 ERA he had.

 

Verlander may not be ready for the opener, Sanchez and Scherzer are not likely to be any better, and they lose this year on the Prince for Kinsler trade (not in 3+ years though).

 

The White Sox didn't do much other than add the Cuban guy, who is a question mark as far as I am concerned.

 

KC swaps Vargas for Santana. Add Infante.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Seth

 

Is the projection what you think the Twins will take North, or what you would do in their place? For me they are a little different. What I would like to see:

 

C-Pinto

1B-Mauer

2B-Dozier

SS-Florimon

3B-Plouffe

LF-Willingham

CF-Hicks

RF-Arcia

DH-Kubel

Bench-Suzuki©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmelee (1B/OF), Presley(OF)

 

SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Gibson

RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Tonkin, Duensing, Swarzak, Worley

 

Deduno somehow stashed on the DL, Diamond traded/waived

 

What I expect to see:

 

C-Suzuki

1B-Mauer

2B-Dozier

SS-Florimon

3B-Plouffe

LF-Willingham

CF-Presley

RF-Arcia

DH-Kubel

Bench-Fryer ©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmelee (1B/OF), Mastro (if healthy) OF

 

SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Worley

RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak, Diamond

 

Deduno DL, Gibson in AAA

 

Mid-season would be good to see Sano up, with Willingham traded to allow Plouffe to play some OF/DH and Meyer up with Correia traded at the deadline

[Thrylos]

C Pinto

1B Mauer

2B Dozier

SS Escobar

3B Plouffe

LF Willingham/Presley

CF Hicks

RF Arcia/Presley

DH Willingham/Kubel

 

Bench:

 

Presley

Parmelee

Suzuki

 

Rotation:

 

1. Nolasco

2. Hughes

3. Pelfrey

4. Worley

5. Correia

 

pen:

 

Perkins

Burton

Duensing

Swarzak

Fien

Tonkin

Thielbar

Kris Johnson

 

DL: Florimon, Deduno

 

Diamond bye bye

 

When Florimon & Deduno return from the DL, two relievers with options (one lefty) will go to Rochester

[Physics Guy]

Good projection at this point. I think/hope Hicks figures it out and makes the team to start in CF (batting 8th, please) with Pressley as the backup, Mastro in AAA. I have a feeling Worley wasn't completely healthy and will show that last year was a fluke. His two years prior to last were better than Diamond's last two. I think he takes the #5 spot, Diamond in the pen, Pressley given a chance to start in AAA and Deduno on the DL. 25th spot a toss-up between Parmelee and Bartlett. I have a feeling the Twins aren't very confident in Parmelee or they wouldn't have signed Kubel.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the biggest glut is pitching and not enough pen spots to hold them. I don't know why some think we will have 3 catchers. That was a pretty bad idea back when we had Mauer, but the only reason Gardy did it was b/c he would be playing Mauer at DH when he wasn't catching. Pinto would have to continue his September to do that, and I don't see that happening (and I like him as a prospect too)... What I expect to see (and for that matter what think should happen).

 

C - Pinto/Suzuki (with Suzuki starting at first but Pinto working into the starting role)

1B - Mauer, Parmelee

2B - Dozier, Escobar

SS - Florimon, Escobar

3B - Plouffe

LF - Willingham

CF - Presley, Mastro

RF - Arcia, Mastro, Parmelee

DH - Kubel, Parmelee, Plouffe, Mauer, whoever.

 

Pitching is the hard part. There's 3 guys out of options (Deduno, Worley, and Diamond) competing for 1 starting spot. Therefore Gibson, right or wrong, is in AAA. I predict Deduno ends up in the pen if he isn't on the 60 day and Worley is the 5th starter. Not sure what happens to Diamond.

[TC Stunner]

C. Pinto

1B. Mauer

2B. Dozier

SS. Florimon

3B. Ploufe

LF. Pressley

CF. Hicks

RF. Arcia

DH. Willingham/Kubel

 

Starters:

Nolasco

Hughs

Pelfrey

Diamond

Correia

 

Bullpen:

Glen Perkins

Jared Burton

Brian Duensing

Casey Fien

Anthony Swarzak

Caleb Thielbar

Vance Worley

 

 

I think Diamond ends up in the rotation, because they're gonna want to have at least one lefty. Worley goes to the pen because he's out of options, and Deduno will be on the DL. If Kubel struggles I could see Parmelee rotating with Willingham at DH instead. I could also see Colabello or Parmelee in RF instead of Pressley, and Pressley used as a utility OF. I dont see Mastroianni or Bartlett making the roster.

[Seth Stohs]

My projection was what I think they will do... my "what they should do" would look a bit different, maybe... not much.

[shs_59]

agreed seth agreed. im 100% in agreement with Mr. Stohs!

 

Also

 

Aaron Hicks will be in AAA Rochester for like a 90% certainty people!

 

1 of Mastro or Pressly would have to be Injured for him to make the team.

 

Jared Burton might have to take over closers role this year, Perkins injury coming, Also I think NOBODY is talking about health right now, so i think if we're as healthy as we were some of last year and most of 2012 we will win about 77 - 78 games.

 

But if we're not healthy this year, This is what I forsee , I think we win about 67-69 games this year.

 

I see 2 or 3 people in the bullpen getting hurt, 1 of Hughes or Nolasco "not holding up" and One of the young bats going down with injury. Its just all realistic scenerios.

 

Look at Oakland like 3 of the last 4 years, They've had 8-12 of their 40 man on the Injury list constantly and last year THEY STILL made the post-season.

 

Maybe we can be more like Oakland in 2015.

[shs_59]

The beauty of Mr Stohs projection is:

 

By late May or Mid- June all of:

 

Kyle Gibson, Michael Tonkin, Aaron Hicks, Josmil Pinto and poooosssibly Miguel Sano

 

Can all be call-ed up on to replace the injuries and guys not producing. Like possibly Parmelee or Fryer or Mastrio and so on and on. Plouffe!?!?

[Top Gun]

Vegas say 65 I will take the under!

[jokin]

I thought it was interesting that Gardy has already talked about carrying 13 pitchers and already is saying Florimon is his shortstop.

 

"Interesting"? Or just depressing?

[TheLeviathan]

Vegas say 65 I will take the under!

 

Is that the official line? If so that makes it an over for me. I expected 67 or 68....which would've made it very difficult.

[Yoshii]

No disrespect, but it looks like bad bubble players completing for spots already taken by bad locked in players. **** competing for ****. The Twins will be lucky if they have a player hit 15 Hrs and break 80 RBIs this season. As much as the SP improved, the offense looks so meek still as has the last few years. I say bring in the young guns asap! (Buxton, Sano, Pinto) Give them a chance, they did it with Hicks, why not these guys who have a higher ceiling and were looked at better 5-tool players? People are going to say they arn't ready for the MLB, but what do we have to lose? It can't get any worse. I hate to see young players preform so well and then sent back down to the MiB because they "don't have enough AB's to give them." Bull. Stats have already been displayed to prove, so I don't feel I need to back myself up.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Pinto really doesn't have anything to learn in AAA after destroying the IL. Doesn't seem fair to keep him off the roster. Plus, 6 Outfielders is MUCH too many.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think there's good reason to think the offense will improve a bit on it's own. in 2012, the offense was more middle of the road and people weren't terribly concerned about it. That was helped by seeing decent production from some of the younger players. I think you will likely see some steps forward from Dozier, Arcia, Parmelee, Plouffe, along with a rebound year from Willingham. None of that is unreasonable to expect. The real question is how much. The wildcards in my opinion will be Pinto, Sano, and potentially Buxton.

[cmathewson]

Where do we get the two roster spots for Mastroianni and Kubel?

[twinsajsf]

I like all of your position players assumptions except for Mastro--I think Hicks earns another trip North out of Spring Training. As for the pitching, it's too early to worry about what to do with Worley, Deduno and Diamond. Best case scenario is that everyone stays healthy and pitches well, while other teams suffer some rotation injuries, and we are able to trade one or more of those three (or Correia) for help in the lineup or a good prospect. Reality, however, suggests that at least one projected rotation or bullpen guy (and maybe one of the 3 guys w/out options) will start the season on the dl, and at least one will pitch himself into a AAA spot or just being cut.