The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

[Spicoli]

Honestly they wont get anything for either of them. Maybe a prospect that will never see the MLB and if they do it will be for a pinch hit.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Potentally, yes. I'm definafely not a fan of watching Clete Thomas types accumulate ABs in 2014.

 

But that decision doesn't have to be made yet.

 

Basically I am in favor of waiting to make room for better players until such time as those better players exist.

 

I am also a "buy low, sell high" advocate, so getting rid of players who have peoven in the past to have value, just for the sake of getting rid of them, doesn't appeal to me.

 

Is the Twins' FO a "buy low, sell high" advocate?

[Kwak]

I fall into the group that bellylaughs at the idea these two could be traded--unless it was for someone worse! The Twins picking-up all salary but rookie minimum would be a prerequisite--and for what? Good teams already have guys who do what these two do and bad teams can't use them anyway.

 

Doumit and Willingham taking ABs away?--from whom? Those that we saw from August didn't convince me they "earned" any more ABs than these two.

[iastfan112]

Willingham is poor defensively but he's not so bad as to be an AL only player. The fact that he only had a .700 OPS last year really means his value is trivial though, he's the one of the two I'd hold on to and hope for a rebound to close to his career numbers. If that were to happen he'd have more value at midseason anyways.

[jokin]

Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

 

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

 

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

 

Either one too many "Pres-lees" on this roster or I just wasn't aware that Ryan Pressly was multi-talented.....

[ashbury]

Wilingham has never really had any trade value; even after his 30+ homer season. We signed him for 3 years at 7 million and he wasn't a hot name then.

 

The Hammer closed the 2012 season hurt, and given his injury history I'd have been surprised if fellow GMs had been receptive if Ryan brought the name up in conversation during the off-season.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I don't care if you break the rules, of course. I wasn't referring to pitchers in the majors. I like the names actually mentioned, including Espinosa.

Yeah, I figured you wouldn't mind too much, or I wouldn't have bothered to post.

 

It's a pretty good exercise--you do have to wonder if some of these guys could be had, even with Doumit's limited value, considering how unlikely the are to develop.

 

Rcfarmer, whose system is Ismael Guillon in? I'm guessing the Reds', given it's the name of his Rookie Ball team?

[kab21]

Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

 

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

 

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

 

If it's me I'm sending Arcia and Hicks to AAA for at least 2 months. they completely fell apart at the end of the season.

 

That leaves you with Mastro/Pressley/Parmelee as your OF starters and probably Colabello as your starting DH. Herrmann is not an MLB hitter imo and he shouldn't enter into any plans other than backup catcher with positional flexibility. I also have no idea how Parmalee can be considered as Plan A in the starting OF. He has done nothing in 2 seasons to deserve that.

 

There is absolutely no reason to dump Willingham so you can start the season with that mess unless you actually get something decent back for him. By the trade deadline I'm hoping that Hicks, Arcia, Buxton and Vargas are already up or are getting close.

 

Doumit I don't care much about since he shouldn't be a starting DH and he shouldn't be behind the plate much. At the same time I would have serious reservations starting the season with two rookies behind the plate (if Mauer moves to 1B). At that point you are one injury or one major disappointment away from a Danny Lehman type getting some serious playing time. We will be wishing that we had Doumit at that point.

[stringer bell]

The 2012 versions of those guys had some value. The graph doesn't always go straight down (two ex-Twins, Torii and Cuddy, are evidence of that). Both are offense-first guys and if they don't hit, their value is next to nothing. I kind of expect one or both guys to have a good season in their walk year. Perhaps the Twins will get themselves something of value, buts the chances aren't great.

[Guest USAFChief]

The 2012 versions of those guys had some value. The graph doesn't always go straight down.

+1.

[Alex]

Since I'm one who doesn't care much about corner OF defense, my position on this is probably in the minority.

 

IIRC the Twins OF defense was the worst in the league by a lot of metrics. Even if you don't buy into those, it should be obvious more range in the outfield is the difference not just between outs and hits but also singles and extra base hits. With. a team that has the worst strikeout rate in the league, you need good defense everywhere, not just up the middle.

 

Not sure if you watched Boston in their series but the number of balls these OF we're able to cut off and get to was notable.

 

i also think that Hammer's defense is a big reason he has so little value, both by metrics and the fact that he's still here, even with that 2012 season.

 

Just something worth considering.

[jokin]

The Hammer closed the 2012 season hurt, and given his injury history I'd have been surprised if fellow GMs had been receptive if Ryan brought the name up in conversation during the off-season.

 

The Tigers accommodated us by taking Delmon off our hands, how about them repeating the favor and taking Willingham for Lefty SP Kyle Lobstein in return (both 2013 @ AAA and career Milb K/9 of 8.1- Rule 5 guy I lobbied for the Twins to take instead of Pressly)?

 

Probably would need to provide salary relief, but Lobstein is definitely blocked at the major league level and by superior prospects in the Tigers system. Product of the Rays system who took a big step in 2013 with a change in scenery- will be pitching in the AFL.

[Trevor0333]

Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.

 

I'd argue it's because their major league success is history but that also means they have little to no value.

 

However moving them to teams that needs depth and has plenty of $ to burn so that $10Mill can be spent on pitching I agree with 100%.

[rcfarmer]

Yeah, I figured you wouldn't mind too much, or I wouldn't have bothered to post.

 

It's a pretty good exercise--you do have to wonder if some of these guys could be had, even with Doumit's limited value, considering how unlikely the are to develop.

 

Rcfarmer, whose system is Ismael Guillon in? I'm guessing the Reds', given it's the name of his Rookie Ball team?

 

He is in the Reds system, sorry forgot to include that.

[shs_59]

Option #1

 

Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, and Adam Brett Walker along with Duensing and Doumit

 

to San Francisco for Madison Bumgarner

 

(or Matt Cain and Martin Agosta)

 

Option #2

 

Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin and Felix Jorge to Atlanta Braves

 

For Alex Wood and Lucas Sims.

[Mike Sixel]

If I could break teh rules, I'd deal both of them, just to dump salary. Then I'd sign other guys that might be better. Neither of these is good enough to help in 2015 and beyond.

[TheLeviathan]

The biggest reason to trade these guys is our farm still needs more pitching and mediocre power hitters that are bad defensively are one of the easiest commodities to acquire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

shs_59,

 

Bumgarner or Wood wouldn't be traded to us for anything less than Buxton or Sano, I think. Both are already quality left-handed MLB starters, and both are locked up cheaply for the next 6 years. (Wood is less proven, of course, but ultra-cheap for the next few years too).

 

I'd throw Cain in that group too -- even though he had a down year and makes more money, his long-term contract still has value and I don't see why the Giants would care about shedding salary right now.

 

And if you're willing to flip great prospects like Buxton and/or Sano for an ace, or 4+ good prospects like Rosario and Meyer, you may as well just sign an ace free agent when you have the chance. Sign Greinke or even Sanchez last winter and you don't have to give up any players, and both contracts will probably expire before any of these prospects hit arbitration much less free agency.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The biggest reason to trade these guys is our farm still needs more pitching and mediocre power hitters that are bad defensively are one of the easiest commodities to acquire.

 

Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

[Mike Sixel]

Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

 

Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

[ThePuck]

Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

 

That's good only of they actually do it on like one FA...or even do it at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

 

This team doesn't need to trade anybody before it can spend $10 million on free agents.

 

Clearing the spots on the roster / in the lineup might help entice other free agents to come here, but I don't have a lot of confidence that this front office will pursue them or pursue the correct ones.

[Mike Sixel]

I share your doubts.......but it's why I would deal them.

[Shane Wahl]

It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

 

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

 

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

 

It's funny that you think people want Willingham and Doumit. Willingham can possibly contribute to the Twins in the future if put in the right situation (Think Danny V for the O's at worst), but what do you think teams will give up for a 34 year old OF coming off his worst season? You're not going to get a top 150 pitching prospect and those are the only ones worth trading for. No one wants to pay him 7 million a season, but we can so why not keep a high OBP guy? Hammer produced over 2 WAR for 5 years straight prior to 2013. Then, also consider that your replacement level guy is Clete Thomas and I think it adds some more. Doumit is terrible through and through and won't provide playing value or trade value. I don't think there's any question about him.

[Trevor0333]

Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

 

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

 

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

 

A Parmelee/Plouffe platoon makes so much sense it will never happen.

[TheLeviathan]

Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

 

It's better than nothing. And I think there was more potential out there than that for both of them last year that we passed on.

 

This team forms unhealthy attachments very quickly with some types of guys.

[kab21]

It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

 

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

 

You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one.

 

Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.

[Shane Wahl]

It's funny that you think people want Willingham and Doumit. Willingham can possibly contribute to the Twins in the future if put in the right situation (Think Danny V for the O's at worst), but what do you think teams will give up for a 34 year old OF coming off his worst season? You're not going to get a top 150 pitching prospect and those are the only ones worth trading for. No one wants to pay him 7 million a season, but we can so why not keep a high OBP guy? Hammer produced over 2 WAR for 5 years straight prior to 2013. Then, also consider that your replacement level guy is Clete Thomas and I think it adds some more. Doumit is terrible through and through and won't provide playing value or trade value. I don't think there's any question about him.

 

Only current top 150 prospects are worth trading for? That is a preposterous claim. Travis Harrison, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, DJ Baxendale, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Zach Jones, and on and on and on are not top 150 prospects right now.

[Shane Wahl]

Also that Willingham could potentially mean two more wins for the Twins in 2014 is utterly meaningless.