Postulating for the sake of postulating: 2013-2014 offseason

[the_youngster]

I understand many things can change from now and 2014, but if you were in charge what would be your plan for bringing our beloved Twins back to relevance? Wait for the young potential stars? Big free agent spending? trades?

 

My personal plan would be to push hard for Ellsbury over the winter. His recent injury may bring down his price, but I doubt Boras will allow that. Add Ellsbury, put him in center (adding a veteran presence so its not all rookies). When Rosario reaches the majors, I would put him back in a corner outfield spot. Ellsbury is definitely a health concern of a player, but he is high risk/high reward. I would rather not trade Rosario for Dozier insurance. If Dozier has found himself, then great, we have a solid second baseman. Having Ellsbury, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks in the outfield allows us to trade a young outfielder (most likely with a bundle of some form) for at least a number three starter, hopefully a number two. Personally I would trade Hicks, but right now Arcia probably has more value. When Buxton eventually comes up, we again might have an expandable outfielder (maybe more pitching help in a year or two). Lastly, I fall under the category of people who want Phil Hughes (still better than what we have now and can be a #2 at best, hopefully a #3). So in this scenario, we presumably have a true center fielder/veteran (helping the youngsters), a starting pitcher (hopefully a #2) from a trade, and a starting pitcher (hopefully a #3) from free agency. Add in our bullpen, the reinforcements of the future in Buxton/Sano/Rosario/Meyer, the young guys who have already gotten their feet wet (Hicks or Arcia/Gibson/Pinto), and you have actually a solid team (on paper at least). Then you can't forget Mauer, wherever he plays (as long as he does his thing and hits .300+).

 

So that's my plan if I was calling the shots. Now what are yours? I'm genuinely curious to hear what you guys (and maybe ladies? haven't noticed many here ever) would do with millions of dollars and control.

[Thrylos]

I understand many things can change from now and 2014, but if you were in charge what would be your plan for bringing our beloved Twins back to relevance? Wait for the young potential stars? Big free agent spending? trades?.

 

-Fire the whole front office (or President, GM and assistant GMs and let the rest apply for their jobs).

-Bring Andy MacPhail back as the Twins President and CEO (read Cafardo's Sunday column) and let him have a run of the team

-Let him Hire a new GM

-Let him set a new front office that reflects this millennium

-Let him Hire a new manager

-Let them Hire new coaches

- Make 2014 a rebuilding year and trade the likes of Willingham, Correia, Doumit at al.

- Try to grab a piece or two (like Josh Johnson or Phil Hughes) in free agency

- Get rid of the AAAA players

- Play the kids in the majors and AAA in 2014 and do not sign retreads

- Be transparent about it, and let the fans know what is happening and that there is a plan.

 

Something like this...

(kinda what Epstein did in Boston some years ago...)

[the_youngster]

Yeah I agree with the part about the front office. It has run its course and some youth is needed. Coaching wise, I would be fine with Gene Glynn for a year or two to groom in a new manager either at AAA or as a MLB coach (maybe like Molitor as the bench or third base

coach with Mauer as a long term guy moving year by year with the future of the franchise)

[howieramone1406390264]

Stay the course. Panicking after 22 months would prolong the rebuild indefinitely which is what occurs in poorly run and/or inexperienced organizations. This same group successfully rebuilt the Twins within memory and will do so again. The strength of our farm system and the speed of the current rebuild has already garnered attention from the national media.

 

Good second post the_youngster! If things were different, I'd grab Ellsbury also, but not for the projected 100M when outfielders will shortly be an organizational strength. I want Hughes also plus one more starting pitcher from free agency. Tanaka would do just fine. Once again good job.

[Shane Wahl]

A "blueprint" thread should be started soon. Let's wait until after game 162 for that.

[Chance]

Ill save my full blue print for later in the offseason. It will involve going heavily at the IFA players, a couple bounce back starters, and mostly just sitting on my hands the rest of the offseason. I believe the real work of switching from rebuild to contention starts at the next trade deadline.

[Siehbiscuit]

I tend to disagree that the Twins cupboards are "full" in the outfield. Hicks is extremely unproven. He did great at the AA level, but so did many others that never saw it translate to the big leagues. I'm not ready to write him off by any means, but to use him to support your argument is a stretch in my opinion. I personally like Shin-Soo Choo over Ellsbury. He will be less expensive and can be a stop gap until Buxton comes up in 2015 at both the leadoff spot and in CF. The rest of my blueprint will wait.

[jokin]

Stay the course. Panicking after 22 months would prolong the rebuild indefinitely which is what occurs in poorly run and/or inexperienced organizations. This same group successfully rebuilt the Twins within memory and will do so again. The strength of our farm system and the speed of the current rebuild has already garnered attention from the national media.

 

Good second post the_youngster! If things were different, I'd grab Ellsbury also, but not for the projected 100M when outfielders will shortly be an organizational strength. I want Hughes also plus one more starting pitcher from free agency. Tanaka would do just fine. Once again good job.

 

Still waiting for you to post your links from all the garnering done by the national media. The local media, and the staff at Twins Daily, does a pretty thorough and comprehensive job, being close to the situation and all, of identifying what is, and isn't working, within this organization- given that they are paid to "ganrer attention" upon the Twins full-time and all.

 

BTW, I'll take some "panicking" of the type that the Red Sox and Indians did over the last 12 months, anytime, over what the Twins have done over the last 22 months. Heck, I hear both clubs have garnered their own shares of "national media attention."

[gunnarthor]

Still waiting for you to post your links from all the garnering done by the national media.

 

Here's something from the NY Times, CBS Sports, SI, KLaw, SI cover piece, ESPN, Yahoo.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins will have another top 5 pick in next years draft and they have a lot of youngsters here and coming in next year. A year from now, I wouldn't be surprised if Sano, Buxton, Meyer and May were all up. So I think the Twins should start adding FA to go with that core - ideally the Japanese or Cuban youngsters that might sign 5 year deals. I'd like them to add one real power bat to the lineup. I think Phil Hughes would be a nice fit in TF.

 

Trade Perkins this offseason and trade Willingham at the deadline. Listen to offers on Dozier and Rosario and hopefully we can make a nice move there.

[Mike Sixel]

1. Sign Ellsbury. Put him in CF, move him to LF when Buxton is up. You now have an elite defensive OF, and a legit veteran ..... they have the money, and he's worth more to the team than a 4th/5th starter type.

 

2. Sign Tanaka, I'd bid in the 40-50MM range. If that isn't enough, oh well.

 

3. Start Hicks in AAA, have him stop switch hitting. Move him up if/when he's ready. Arcia in RF all year. Backup type in LF until Buxton is up.

 

4. Mauer to 1B / DH full time.

 

5. Sano and Rosario in AAA to start the year, move them up when they are close to ready, not when they've "proved everything".

 

6. Sign a SP that used to be good, but had a higher ERA and lower FIP (i.e., follow the Pirates' plan).

 

7. Escobar starts at SS, with Floriman as your backup.

 

8. Trade/cut Doumit, let a random younger player be the backup RF/DH/1B.

 

9. Let Pelfrey walk.

 

I doubt that's my whole plan.....

 

Tanaka=3-5 wins over the last pitcher this year

Ellsbury =3-5 wins over what Hicks did this year

Sano for half a year = 1-3 wins over Plouffe

Random SP to replace Pelfrey = 1-3 wins

Pinto at C=about a wash with Morneau at 1B

Mauer for 160 games=1-3 wins over Mauer for what he played this year

Arcia better, and up all year=1-2 wins I'd think

 

Add some luck, you are competitive. Get lucky and Buxton is ready, add more. Get lucky with random players, you are more than competitive.....

 

A lot needs to go right for that to work, but it is better than standing pat. And, there is not a ton of money spent here.....Ellsbury and Tanaka are it for the big bucks long term.

[jokin]

Here's something from the NY Times, CBS Sports, SI, KLaw, SI cover piece, ESPN, Yahoo.

 

Thanks "Howie".

 

Of course, in the May ESPN article you cite, Buster Olney marvels at the pleasant surprise at the Twins "almost .500 record" and is best summed-up for why East Coast scribes and guys looking to get back in a major league front office like Keith Law, even the good ones, are relatively clueless and/or disingenuous about the state of a team from the hinterland, as in these mock-worthy quotes:

 

But it’s almost impossible to overstate how well the pieces have been coming together in the Twins’ player development, even beyond the emergence of Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, outfielders who have made their respective major league debuts this season.

 

"The Twins have benefited from big jumps by several of their top prospects, balancing out the promotions of their No. 3, 4, and 5 prospects to the majors this year"...."Their system is particularly strong in center field"...[Klaw actually favored Gibson over Meyer in the spring]- he speaks particularly highly of Gibson, stating that he looks better than he did prior to his surgery -- throwing harder with an improved slider..

 

Given that Olney and Klaw would be the highest-rated experts in your list, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the other articles cited are even "less" of the same.

[nicksaviking]

Stay the course. Panicking after 22 months would prolong the rebuild indefinitely which is what occurs in poorly run and/or inexperienced organizations. This same group successfully rebuilt the Twins within memory and will do so again.

 

What is the proper amount of months after which to panic?

 

This group did rebuild the Twins once. They also failed to rebuild the Twins once. If all you are basing this off of is past performances, a 50/50 chance at a successful rebuild after what, 36 months, doesn't sound very appealing to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Where does this 22 months come from? What was the team doing before that? Isn't the same leadership, other then Ryan, in place from before that?

[jokin]

Where does this 22 months come from? What was the team doing before that? Isn't the same leadership, other then Ryan, in place from before that?

 

And where's the quote from 22 months ago that Ryan mentioned that this was, in fact, a rebuild......by letting your only legitimate talent walk away for virtually nothing or supplemental draft pick maybes?, signing 3 replacement players on the wrong side of 30?, signing or trading for multiple washed-up or dead-ended SPs?....and then laid out a general idea of his plan and goals encompassing the past 22 months and the next 19 months..... until the parade allegedly begins?

[gunnarthor]

Given that Olney and Klaw would be the highest-rated experts in your list, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the other articles cited are even "less" of the same.

 

You asked for positive national reviews of the Twins so I gave you a couple. Then you decided to ignore over half of them and claim it as more of the same.

[IdahoPilgrim]

1. Sign Ellsbury. Put him in CF, move him to LF when Buxton is up. You now have an elite defensive OF, and a legit veteran ..... they have the money, and he's worth more to the team than a 4th/5th starter type.

 

2. Sign Tanaka, I'd bid in the 40-50MM range. If that isn't enough, oh well.

 

3. Start Hicks in AAA, have him stop switch hitting. Move him up if/when he's ready. Arcia in RF all year. Backup type in LF until Buxton is up.

 

4. Mauer to 1B / DH full time.

 

5. Sano and Rosario in AAA to start the year, move them up when they are close to ready, not when they've "proved everything".

 

6. Sign a SP that used to be good, but had a higher ERA and lower FIP (i.e., follow the Pirates' plan).

 

7. Escobar starts at SS, with Floriman as your backup.

 

8. Trade/cut Doumit, let a random younger player be the backup RF/DH/1B.

 

9. Let Pelfrey walk.

 

I doubt that's my whole plan.....

 

Tanaka=3-5 wins over the last pitcher this year

Ellsbury =3-5 wins over what Hicks did this year

Sano for half a year = 1-3 wins over Plouffe

Random SP to replace Pelfrey = 1-3 wins

Pinto at C=about a wash with Morneau at 1B

Mauer for 160 games=1-3 wins over Mauer for what he played this year

Arcia better, and up all year=1-2 wins I'd think

 

Add some luck, you are competitive. Get lucky and Buxton is ready, add more. Get lucky with random players, you are more than competitive.....

 

A lot needs to go right for that to work, but it is better than standing pat. And, there is not a ton of money spent here.....Ellsbury and Tanaka are it for the big bucks long term.

 

Won't quibble with much of this. Curious about two things:

 

#6 the new SP - did you have any particular names in mind?

 

#7 was curious why Escobar over Florimon - seem to be about the same offensively but IMO Florimon is a slightly better fielder.

 

#9 what if he signed a relatively team friendly deal? Pelfrey didn't do that bad given he was coming off of injury. Slow start, stable summer, tailed off late. I'd take a chance on him if not too expensive, as he's better than some we have until the young guns are ready.

[jokin]

You asked for positive national reviews of the Twins so I gave you a couple. Then you decided to ignore over half of them and claim it as more of the same.

 

When I have time, I'll look at the rest of your links. Thus far, I think I've pretty well-established that there is little credence in crowing from the highest roof top about someone, even "national experts" writing positively about a situation from (literally) 1000s of miles away from that situation....And put grave doubt into someone who constantly uses those "experts" for his shaky foundational arguments, experts who so often, and understandably, are mostly wrong about their understanding of that given situation. Local, well-informed writers, such as those at Twins Daily, and other local professional experts like Howard Sinker, Phil Miller and many others, should be given far more credence for their opinions than someone who casually writes something about the Twins one time a year.

[nicksaviking]

When I have time, I'll look at the rest of your links. Thus far, I think I've pretty well-established that there is little credence in crowing from the highest roof top about someone, even "national experts" writing positively about a situation from (literally) 1000s of miles away from that situation....And put grave doubt into someone who constantly uses those "experts" for his shaky foundational arguments, experts who so often, and understandably, are mostly wrong about thier understanding of that given situation. Local, well-informed writers, such as those at Twins Daily, and other local professional experts like Howard Sinker, Phil Miller and many others, should be given far more credence for their opinions than someone who casually writes something about the Twins one time a year.

 

Yeah national guys are going to always think of the Twins front office and Terry Ryan as the guys who overachieved last decade. They aren't as likely to hear about Ryan's strange aversion to platoons or his idea that a team on the sharing end of the revenue sharing stream thinks $7 million per year deals are huge.

 

To be fair and honest, sometimes local writers (and fans) are too deep into the forest to see the trees. However, for the most part they have a better feel for the situation because they analyze the many factors that make up the results. Contrast that with the national guys who generally just analyze the results, as the minutea is too burdensome considering they cover 29 other teams as well.

[Major League Ready]

Draft a college SP with the #4/5 pick

 

Determine the budget. Let’s say it is $100M

 

Determine the best way to spend roughly $40M. My first criteria in determining the best way to spend $40 would probably be WAR/per dollar of salary. (Moneyball in a nutshell).

 

The VERY last thing I would do would be to add long-term contracts for players who will be past their prime in the final years of the contract, especially players like Ellsbury with injury concerns. Most likely case scenario is that type of FA acquisition will no longer be performing at an elite level. Worst case scenario is Hamilton, Pujlos, Bourne who underperformed in the 1^st year of their contracts and are even more likely to underperform at the end of the term. The argument we won’t need the money for our prospects until 20XX misses the point completely and assumes this is a matter of available funds in the present. In the simplest terms possible, if we sign a major free agent today, he will likely not be an elite player in the final years of the contract. The options are … sign that free agent once the team gets where KC is today or sign him now. Do you want the 2-3 years that FA is likely to be underperforming to be when we are rebuilding as we are now or do you want those years or eroding ability to be when we should be back in contention?

 

Spend the money but go hard after Tanaka or other international FAs that will be in their prime throughout the contract. My fall-back position is the best free agents available on 2-3 year contracts. Kyle Lohse. We have the budget so get aggressive on those FAs. There is a lot of depth in terms of FA OFs this year. I would not rule them out but I would not be outbidding a team with $150M more in revenue than us that also knows Ellsbury the best in terms of if he can stay healthy.

 

No way I move Dozier from 2B until we see Rosario at this level. We have room in the outfield right now so that’s where I audition him knowing I can move him to 2B if the circumstances dictate such a move. I am also not worried about Florimon. We have much bigger holes to fill. Give him next year to see if he develops better plate discipline. He should be league average offensively if he simply learns to lay off pitches in the dirt. I am torn on moving Mauer to 1^st but that might be the way to go with the emergence of Pinto. We just can’t afford to have the situation we had with Morneau repeat itself with Mauer.

[gmarais66]

1. Sign Ellsbury. Put him in CF, move him to LF when Buxton is up. You now have an elite defensive OF, and a legit veteran ..... they have the money, and he's worth more to the team than a 4th/5th starter type.

 

2. Sign Tanaka, I'd bid in the 40-50MM range. If that isn't enough, oh well.

 

3. Start Hicks in AAA, have him stop switch hitting. Move him up if/when he's ready. Arcia in RF all year. Backup type in LF until Buxton is up.

 

4. Mauer to 1B / DH full time.

 

5. Sano and Rosario in AAA to start the year, move them up when they are close to ready, not when they've "proved everything".

 

6. Sign a SP that used to be good, but had a higher ERA and lower FIP (i.e., follow the Pirates' plan).

 

7. Escobar starts at SS, with Floriman as your backup.

 

8. Trade/cut Doumit, let a random younger player be the backup RF/DH/1B.

 

9. Let Pelfrey walk.

 

I doubt that's my whole plan.....

 

Tanaka=3-5 wins over the last pitcher this year

Ellsbury =3-5 wins over what Hicks did this year

Sano for half a year = 1-3 wins over Plouffe

Random SP to replace Pelfrey = 1-3 wins

Pinto at C=about a wash with Morneau at 1B

Mauer for 160 games=1-3 wins over Mauer for what he played this year

Arcia better, and up all year=1-2 wins I'd think

 

Add some luck, you are competitive. Get lucky and Buxton is ready, add more. Get lucky with random players, you are more than competitive.....

 

A lot needs to go right for that to work, but it is better than standing pat. And, there is not a ton of money spent here.....Ellsbury and Tanaka are it for the big bucks long term.

 

There is no chance in the universe that the Twins sign Ellsbury. There may be a miniscule chance that TR surprises us and signs a decent pitcher or two, but he is not going to sign a centerfielder, especially one as expensive and with as many injury concerns as Ellsbury. The Twins will begin the 2014 season with either Hicks or Presley starting in CF.

[Mike Sixel]

The question was "what would you do", not "what do you think the Twins will do".

 

As for injuries, Ellsbury has played more than Mauer has over the last few years....at the most premium of OF positions, with no signs of slowing down.

 

6.....not sure, I'd have to do more digging on the name, but I will commit to one later in the offseason if people want to have something to laugh at me later (odss are, I'll be wrong).

 

7. Escobar is younger, so I think he has more room for growth. Could be wrong. that one was typed up but not that important either way I don't think.

 

9. I was never a fan of Pelfrey before the injury, so I don't see that he's likely to "return" to something I like all that much.

 

Gibson, Tanaka, KC, SP FA, random guy (Deduno, Worley, Diamond)from AAA until Meyer is ready, that's what I would do (assuming I can get lucky and pull it off).

[ashbury]

Thanks "Howie".

 

Mod note: Leave out the personal digs, please. And there is no value in trying to assort people into various camps.

[Steve Penz]

1. Sign Ellsbury. Put him in CF, move him to LF when Buxton is up. You now have an elite defensive OF, and a legit veteran ..... they have the money, and he's worth more to the team than a 4th/5th starter type.

 

2. Sign Tanaka, I'd bid in the 40-50MM range. If that isn't enough, oh well.

 

3. Start Hicks in AAA, have him stop switch hitting. Move him up if/when he's ready. Arcia in RF all year. Backup type in LF until Buxton is up.

 

4. Mauer to 1B / DH full time.

 

5. Sano and Rosario in AAA to start the year, move them up when they are close to ready, not when they've "proved everything".

 

6. Sign a SP that used to be good, but had a higher ERA and lower FIP (i.e., follow the Pirates' plan).

 

7. Escobar starts at SS, with Floriman as your backup.

 

8. Trade/cut Doumit, let a random younger player be the backup RF/DH/1B.

 

9. Let Pelfrey walk.

 

I doubt that's my whole plan.....

 

Tanaka=3-5 wins over the last pitcher this year

Ellsbury =3-5 wins over what Hicks did this year

Sano for half a year = 1-3 wins over Plouffe

Random SP to replace Pelfrey = 1-3 wins

Pinto at C=about a wash with Morneau at 1B

Mauer for 160 games=1-3 wins over Mauer for what he played this year

Arcia better, and up all year=1-2 wins I'd think

 

Add some luck, you are competitive. Get lucky and Buxton is ready, add more. Get lucky with random players, you are more than competitive.....

 

A lot needs to go right for that to work, but it is better than standing pat. And, there is not a ton of money spent here.....Ellsbury and Tanaka are it for the big bucks long term.

 

 

Since when have you wanted to sign Ellsbury?

[Mike Sixel]

I've been advocating Ellsbury for a couple of months.

[ThePuck]

 

The VERY last thing I would do would be to add long-term contracts for players who will be past their prime in the final years of the contract, especially players like Ellsbury with injury concerns.

 

A player's prime is basically 26-29,30. Most players don't become FAs until they are at least 28, 29. So, every FA signing for any decent player is going to have years past their prime.

[IdahoPilgrim]

A player's prime is basically 26-29,30. Most players don't become FAs until they are at least 28, 29. So, every FA signing for any decent player is going to have years past their prime.

 

This is one reason some are hesitant to dive heavily into the FA market - you almost always end up paying based on what the player has been, not necessarily what he will be in the future.

[ThePuck]

This is one reason some are hesitant to dive heavily into the FA market - you almost always end up paying based on what the player has been, not necessarily what he will be in the future.

 

It's a convenient excuse not to go after any quality FA players...or to defend the FA for not doing it. Chances need to be taken....cause there are plenty of players who play very well past their supposed prime years along with those who don't.

[Major League Ready]

Some of you guys are much better than I am at remembering past transactions. Can you site examples of elite free agents signed by any team outside the top 10 in revenue when that team was rebuilding as opposed to a final compeitive piece (ie Fielder)?

[gunnarthor]

Some of you guys are much better than I am at remembering past transactions. Can you site examples of elite free agents signed by any team outside the top 10 in revenue when that team was rebuilding as opposed to a final compeitive piece (ie Fielder)?

 

There have been a few - Nationals signed Werth to a long term contract when they still sucked but obviously had the right pieces ready moving forward. And the Nats might have been a top 10 revenue team. Not sure.

 

Brewers signed Lohse last year and I think they lost a draft pick b/c of that. Not sure if you call Lohse elite.