Willingham on waivers

[Thrylos]

What pitching is available next year

 

for starters:

 

Matt Garza

Dan Haren

Phil Hughes

Ubaldo Jimenez

Josh Johnson

Jon Lester

Tim Lincecum

Ricky Nolasco

Edinson Volquez

 

Lester and Jimenez have options that they may decline.

 

Not a bad list, and there are secondary pitchers available either aging veterans like Hudson, Halladay et al, or mid range like Maholm.

[TwinsThompson]

TR's strategy of staying competitive while rebuilding at the same time seems great in theory. But, depending on what year you would view as the start of the rebuild, you could say that his strategy has largely failed. It's one thing to run out mediocre veteran players if they keep you competitive, but we are on our way to losing 90+ games again this year. That's not being competitive. We may or may not be a worse product on the field by moving the veterans out of the way, but at least we will be seeing what we have with the younger guys. How will those players improve as MLB'ers if we are hesitant to give them consistent playing time. This whole strategy feels very non-committal to me, and I think it drags the rebuilding process out a bit longer.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins aren't signing Garza.....but some of those other names intrigue me. Most of them are coming off bad years, or injuries, will they really require 4-6 year deals that preclude signing other playrs of value?

 

we are just going to disagree on the "glut" of Twins' OFers....since Hicks can't hit (imo) and Arcia can't field, I think there is plenty of room for a good player out there.

[Monkeypaws]

A wise man (or several) once said "follow the money".

 

Just to be clear, are you guys giving the team another excuse for not signing FAs, they just won't come here?

 

No sir!

 

You say it's only the money that matters, I beg to differ. He'll be filthy rich wherever he signs.

 

You make it sound like all the Twins have to do is want him, make him a big offer, and it's a done deal. I doubt it.

 

I believe free agents are usually looking for a combination of things: money of course; but also the chance to win. It also depends on the number of suitors, location, relationships, etc.

 

I just have a hard time imagining a guy hitting Free Agency for the first time, who is a pretty good player and will likely have lots of offers, who has no obvious ties to the area, who has played on a winning team his whole career, deciding to choose this Twins team, with 2 perhaps 3 90 loss seasons in a row and no prospect of immediate improvement as his dream destination.

 

The guy will be 30 in September - he doesn't have time to wait for Sano, Buxton and company.

 

Just being realistic.

 

The Twins need to return to relevance to attract this type of player.

[zenser]

I am not as high on the Josh Johnson bandwagon as most are. When healthy he is good but he has only had 25 or more starts 3 times in his career. If he comes cheap enough, I am all for it but I wouldn't spend like crazy to get him.

 

I think Hughes would be a nice fit and a change of scenery might benefit him. I listened to his start on 8/15 and the yankee announcers were questioning if they would start him more this season because they said you can't run him out there just to lose each time. I think pitching in Target Field as opposed to Yankee Stadium would definately help his numbers.

 

Lincecum would be nice too but I think he will be a bit pricy.

 

For shortstops, IMO the only option that will be available that is worth anything that the Twins could actually sign is Stephen Drew. I am not sure I am sold on him. Maybe make due with Florimon next year and go after Jed Lawrie in 2015.

 

Shortstops

Clint Barmes (35)

Willie Bloomquist (36)

Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout

Alexi Casilla (29)

Stephen Drew (31)

Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option

Rafael Furcal (36)

Alex Gonzalez (36)

Cesar Izturis (34)

Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout

John McDonald (39)

Jhonny Peralta (32)

Brendan Ryan (32)

[Mike Sixel]

I never said it was that easy.....do people expect paragrahps in every post?

 

I do agree, it is possible, maybe likely, he does not want to come to MN. But Reggie White went to GB when they sucked. Greinke said he would go to wherever they paid him the most money. Heck, Greg Jennings just came to MN with Ponder at QB.

 

I think people over rate how much titles and rings mean, when we are talking about 10s of millions of dollars. Is there an effect? sure. But money comes first, imo, and that "o" is based on years of watching players hold out for a few more dollars, or sign with bad teams, or whatever. But, we don't really know, maybe for Jacoby, the ring is more important.

 

not sure it matters, I don't see Ryan doing it.

[Mr. Brooks]

I am not as high on the Josh Johnson bandwagon as most are. When healthy he is good but he has only had 25 or more starts 3 times in his career. If he comes cheap enough, I am all for it but I wouldn't spend like crazy to get him.

 

I think Hughes would be a nice fit and a change of scenery might benefit him. I listened to his start on 8/15 and the yankee announcers were questioning if they would start him more this season because they said you can't run him out there just to lose each time. I think pitching in Target Field as opposed to Yankee Stadium would definately help his numbers.

 

Lincecum would be nice too but I think he will be a bit pricy.

 

For shortstops, IMO the only option that will be available that is worth anything that the Twins could actually sign is Stephen Drew. I am not sure I am sold on him. Maybe make due with Florimon next year and go after Jed Lawrie in 2015.

 

Shortstops

Clint Barmes (35)

Willie Bloomquist (36)

Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout

Alexi Casilla (29)

Stephen Drew (31)

Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option

Rafael Furcal (36)

Alex Gonzalez (36)

Cesar Izturis (34)

Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout

John McDonald (39)

Jhonny Peralta (32)

Brendan Ryan (32)

 

That is exactly the type of player the Twins should be targeting right now! The only way you can sell high is if you buy low!!

The money should not be a factor. Who cares if you have to "overpay" for him? The Twins have about $30 to $40 million extra that is just going into ownerships poket right now.

What is the worst that can happen? He continues to be injured and money that was never going to be spent anyway gets "wasted"?

But if manages to stay healthy, and puts up good numbers in a big ballpark, you suddenly have a guy that can either anchor your rotation, or you can ship him to a contender for a really good package, the type of package that franchises are built upon.

To me, where the Twins currently are at with payroll, and with no pressure to win now, it should be a no brainer to take a chance on one or more of Johnson, Lincecum or Halladay.

[Brandon]

Ellsbury is a pipe dream and redundant and expensive get over it. There is a cuban SS and a Japanese Ace Pitcher we need to be more focused on at least one if not both of them as they are young and will be here to help the team win big time in 2 years as our best prospects start to come up next year.

 

As far as willingham goes. none of our recent prospects save Arcia have shown enough to warrant trading Willingham or not resigning Morneau. Plouffe, Parmalee, Hicks have all been terrible and Doumit hasnt been great either. If we needed to squeeze a player to the bench it would be him and if others are hitting then yes we would trade one for even less value but that just hasnt been the case. Hopefully Hicks makes his way back up to being a productive OF next year with Arcia and eventually Buxton moving Willingham to DH and Doumit to the bench. Neither Plouffe or Parmalee have enough to unseat a declining Morneau as the everday 1b when Sano arrives next year. the only player to make a position battle interesting next year is Dozier and Rosario and as of right now Rosario is not going to win that one. If he goes to the OF and is able to push Arcia to 1b (because Hicks and Buxton are already there by allstar break) then Morneau or Willingham could be traded as the other could DH. Then it would make sense.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't agree there are not better options next year.

 

Sign the Cuban 1B, sign Ellsbury, bring up Pinto, move Arcia/Mauer to 1B/DH (and RF and C), Herrmann as the utility RF/Dh/3rd catcher, lots and lots of moves are avialable.

 

Oh, and if they roll out Thomas, Plouffe, Morneau, Doumit, Floriman..as 55% of the lineup most days...you really think the offense is going to be "competitive"?

 

I guess I'll have to see some of that money spent before I think its a good idea to plan on it. I'm certainly on board with the fact the Twins can afford to spend lots of it. I'm less on board with thinking they will and dumping players in anticipation of it.

[old nurse]

I never said it was that easy.....do people expect paragrahps in every post?

 

I do agree, it is possible, maybe likely, he does not want to come to MN. But Reggie White went to GB when they sucked. Greinke said he would go to wherever they paid him the most money. Heck, Greg Jennings just came to MN with Ponder at QB.

 

I think people over rate how much titles and rings mean, when we are talking about 10s of millions of dollars. Is there an effect? sure. But money comes first, imo, and that "o" is based on years of watching players hold out for a few more dollars, or sign with bad teams, or whatever. But, we don't really know, maybe for Jacoby, the ring is more important.

 

not sure it matters, I don't see Ryan doing it.

 

Greinke said why he signed with the Dodger was they offered the most money. He never stated he would go to the team that offered the most money. There is a big difference. The offers were either Texas or the Dodgers. That is why he picked the Dodgers over Texas. Context is a little bit important here. Football players have a far shorter window to make money in with usually nothing guaranteed. That makes for a far different decision making process. Multiple basketball players take less money to be on winning teams. Their window to make money is similar to baseball. They talk of winning rings and championships, not the money.

[Mike Sixel]

"It's obviously the No. 1 thing,'' Greinke said. “I could play for the worst team if they paid the most … .''

 

Y! SPORTS

[ashbury]

By that logic Mauer needs to go too, right?

 

"We finished last with you. We can finish last without you."

 

[golfboy1]

I never said it was that easy.....do people expect paragrahps in every post?

 

I do agree, it is possible, maybe likely, he does not want to come to MN. But Reggie White went to GB when they sucked. Greinke said he would go to wherever they paid him the most money. Heck, Greg Jennings just came to MN with Ponder at QB.

 

I think people over rate how much titles and rings mean, when we are talking about 10s of millions of dollars. Is there an effect? sure. But money comes first, imo, and that "o" is based on years of watching players hold out for a few more dollars, or sign with bad teams, or whatever. But, we don't really know, maybe for Jacoby, the ring is more important.

 

not sure it matters, I don't see Ryan doing it.

 

I think we are wasting bandwith discussing Ellsbury coming to the Twins. It's not the Twins MO to sign a big time FA for a LOT of money for a LOT of years. The Twins would have to outbid & overpay by a significant amount to even get Ellsbury to consider coming here. Yes the Twins have money to spend but it would be better spent on pitching, maybe the Japanese pitcher or Hughes.

 

The football analogy doesn't really work.... plus GB didn't want Jennings back that seriously so he picked the Vikings since they have a reasonably good team & he knew he would play. IMHO

 

Money does matter but it's not the end all. These players are going to get a boatload of money regardless so there are other factors involved. IIRC, Puckett & Hrbek turned down significantly more money to stay with the Twins when they had the opportunity to move.

 

I hope you aren't giving up on Arcia being an OF for the Twins. He'd better to able to play the field for many years or the Twins are in trouble. There are endless amount of OF'ers who can't field better than him who play OF on a consistent basis

[Mike Sixel]

Puckett signed the 3rd largest contract in baseball at the time.

[stringer bell]

Willingham stays. There is your DH/LF for 2014. I have said it a couple times, but Willingham will be in a contract year, presumably healthy, and mostly hitting between Mauer and Arcia. I expect a good year from him, closer to 2012 than 2013. If the Twins don't contend next year (close to a lock), he could be a good trade chip at the trade deadline.

[zenser]

That is exactly the type of player the Twins should be targeting right now! The only way you can sell high is if you buy low!!

The money should not be a factor. Who cares if you have to "overpay" for him? The Twins have about $30 to $40 million extra that is just going into ownerships poket right now.

What is the worst that can happen? He continues to be injured and money that was never going to be spent anyway gets "wasted"?

But if manages to stay healthy, and puts up good numbers in a big ballpark, you suddenly have a guy that can either anchor your rotation, or you can ship him to a contender for a really good package, the type of package that franchises are built upon.

To me, where the Twins currently are at with payroll, and with no pressure to win now, it should be a no brainer to take a chance on one or more of Johnson, Lincecum or Halladay.

 

All I was saying is that if Johnson is available at the Twins current retread cost, I would take him. I wouldn't give him what Lincecum or Hughes will require.

 

I would love if they pursued Lincecum. He has at shown he can stay healthy and throw 200+ innings. Halladay would be worth the risk. Up until his injury, he has shown that he can be consistant and you could run him out there for 30 starts.

 

What turns me off on Johnson is his health. If he doesn't start more than 20 games like he has 4 of the last 8 years, you are still stuck with the same problem of running guys like Pedro Hernandez, Cole Devries, Jason Marquis.... for 10+ starts. I don't know about the rest of you but I have seen enough of those guys over the last three years. I would prefer a quality starter. I know injuries are a part of the game and they happen and for some people, they just happen more often.

[jay]

To me, where the Twins currently are at with payroll, and with no pressure to win now, it should be a no brainer to take a chance on one or more of Johnson, Lincecum or Halladay.

 

That's a great point. The Twins are in a great position to take on the risk of a guy with upside. If it doesn't work, oh well, we're no worse off in trying to bring the next 'nucleus' along.

 

Greinke said he would go to wherever they paid him the most money.

 

Even if this were 100% true, the Dodgers simply weren't going to be outbid. That's the reality of it.

 

You make it sound like all the Twins have to do is want him, make him a big offer, and it's a done deal. I doubt it.

 

I believe free agents are usually looking for a combination of things: money of course; but also the chance to win. It also depends on the number of suitors, location, relationships, etc.

 

I just have a hard time imagining a guy hitting Free Agency for the first time, who is a pretty good player and will likely have lots of offers, who has no obvious ties to the area, who has played on a winning team his whole career, deciding to choose this Twins team, with 2 perhaps 3 90 loss seasons in a row and no prospect of immediate improvement as his dream destination.

 

The guy will be 30 in September - he doesn't have time to wait for Sano, Buxton and company.

 

Just being realistic.

 

The Twins need to return to relevance to attract this type of player.

 

I think these points get completely ignored here far too often while we dream on the great FAs we could sign to spend all that money on. It's not hard to find plenty of examples to clearly show that terrible teams struggle to attract quality FA players.

[jay]

Btw, it's official. Morse to Orioles. Twins pulled Willingham back off waivers. MLB.com has the guy that the Twins were supposedly targeting, E. Rodriguez, at #3 in the O's org (and #86 overall). BA had him at #5 and nowhere on the pre-season 100 or mid-season 50.

 

The guy the Mariners got for Morse, X. Avery, is at #10 (preseason #7) on mlb.com and was #7 on BA's list.

 

FRIDAY, 12:33pm: The Twins and Orioles could not come to an agreement on a trade, and Willingham has been pulled back off waivers, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Earlier reports indicated that the Twins asked for top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez, causing Baltimore to back off.

 

 

12:48pm: The Orioles are sending outfield prospect Xavier Avery to the Mariners, according to Peter Gammons of the MLB Network (on Twitter).

12:35pm: The Orioles have acquired Mike Morse from the Mariners, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman adds that the Mariners will receive a prospect in exchange (Twitter links).

[Dman]

A number 3 prospect for Willingham does seem high to me but then again I am no baseball genius. He is old and although probably solid the next three to four years he is what he is. The Orioles could flip Willingham next year and if he does well get a nice a return as well but I think they were right the price was too high IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

Avery used to be pretty highly thought of if I remember right.

 

its becoming a bit too consistent that are demands are "too high" with our block players. I'm all for wanting quality, but there might be a happy medium we aren't reaching right now.

[jay]

Avery used to be pretty highly thought of if I remember right.

 

Commonly ranked at #2 for the O's right behind Machado in 2011.

[Mr. Brooks]

All I was saying is that if Johnson is available at the Twins current retread cost, I would take him. I wouldn't give him what Lincecum or Hughes will require.

 

I would love if they pursued Lincecum. He has at shown he can stay healthy and throw 200+ innings. Halladay would be worth the risk. Up until his injury, he has shown that he can be consistant and you could run him out there for 30 starts.

 

What turns me off on Johnson is his health. If he doesn't start more than 20 games like he has 4 of the last 8 years, you are still stuck with the same problem of running guys like Pedro Hernandez, Cole Devries, Jason Marquis.... for 10+ starts. I don't know about the rest of you but I have seen enough of those guys over the last three years. I would prefer a quality starter. I know injuries are a part of the game and they happen and for some people, they just happen more often.

 

But again, when we have all this money that is not being spent anyways, why does the price on Johnson matter?

Either target him or don't. But if you decide his upside is worth a gamble, the price shouldn't matter, given our payroll situation.

The only argument to this is the "stick to your guns" argument, but to that I have a saying of my own, "your pride will be your downfall".

[Mike Sixel]

Asking for a team's #3 prospect for a guy that has been bad and hurt, and is old, seems a bit steep. We don't know that's what they asked for, but if so, I too would say no if I was them.

[TheLeviathan]

Commonly ranked at #2 for the O's right behind Machado in 2011.

 

Thanks, that's wht I thought. Pretty good get.

 

waiver claims aren't typically going to land hot prospects (especially with a player floundering that was claimed). Instead, targeting guys whose luster wore off might be good value and more realistic to ask for. At the end of the day, asking too much gets you nothing.

[Mr. Brooks]

Asking for a team's #3 prospect for a guy that has been bad and hurt, and is old, seems a bit steep. We don't know that's what they asked for, but if so, I too would say no if I was them.

 

I agree.

Having a high asking price is one thing, and given that Willingham has another season under contract to improve his value, I actually agree with that.

But, making your demands so absurdly high that they are just wasting everyone's time is another.

Supposedly, the asking price was not only Rodriguez, but "several" other pitching prospects in addition. If those reports are true, then I just have to ask, why even waste everyone's time?

Even if Willingham were having an identical season to 2012, this would still be a laughable asking price.

Even at his best, Willingham is just not the type of player that you trade those types of packages for, he's pretty much a one dimensional player, and even at it's best that one dimension is not elite, it's just good.

This makes me think that even if Willingham turns it around in 2014, we still won't get anything for him, because Ryan's asking price will be even higher!

[Alex]

I am not of the notion that Morneau is easily replaceable. I believe he is a much safer choice for next year than Parmelee or Colabello.

 

However, both of those guys have raked in AAA. Could one of them be for real against MLB pitching? Maybe.

 

 

This is a big part of the philosophy that people are frustrated with: the safe choice. At this point, Morneau is a "safe" choice because he's a known quality. There's really not upside there.

 

I don't think he's going to cost all that much to retain (he's a league average (or less) first baseman). And he's really not blocking one, at least for the next couple of years. (The notion that he's taking at bats (or would be) from Arcia or Sano is pretty out of touch).

 

It's true that the names given don't match, but we have already gone around about the blocking issue. However, the outside perspective is valuable, imo, for other reasons and the crux of the blog is about how the Twins fans view Morneau, which was further confirmed by comments like these. I'm a Twins fan, but calling him a "league average" first baseman is out of touch as well. If he doesn't cost much to retain and no one wants to take him for essentially free, there is a reason.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, I don't get the desire to have the "safe" choice at 1B?

If we were a playoff caliber team, then I could see it, because you might not want to take a risk that could cost you a win or two, which could then cost you a playoff spot.

But as a rebuilding team that will likely lose 90+ games again next year, why would you want the "safe" option, with no upside?

It seems to me that is the optimal time to pass up the safe choice for the more "risky" choice, since you have nothing to lose if that risk turns into a massive bust. But if the risk pays off, you've possibly found a future piece of the organization that you might otherwise not have found.

One of the reasons we have let some good players get away recently (Gomez, Hardy, etc.) is because we were in the playoff hunt those years, and couldn't afford to take as many risks. That is also one of (many) the reasons we are in the boat we are in now.

Now is the time to take those risks.

[ThePuck]

I agree.

Having a high asking price is one thing, and given that Willingham has another season under contract to improve his value, I actually agree with that.

But, making your demands so absurdly high that they are just wasting everyone's time is another.

Supposedly, the asking price was not only Rodriguez, but "several" other pitching prospects in addition. If those reports are true, then I just have to ask, why even waste everyone's time?

Even if Willingham were having an identical season to 2012, this would still be a laughable asking price.

Even at his best, Willingham is just not the type of player that you trade those types of packages for, he's pretty much a one dimensional player, and even at it's best that one dimension is not elite, it's just good.

This makes me think that even if Willingham turns it around in 2014, we still won't get anything for him, because Ryan's asking price will be even higher!

 

Very nice post.

[nicksaviking]

I suppose we will never know what was countered. Clearly we are all in agreement with the Orioles that Rodriguez was too much to ask for. Did Ryan say no to Mike Wright though? Devin Jones? Tim Berry? If talks dragged on until the end one would have to think the teams couldn't have been too far apart. Frankly, I would be pretty disappointed if the Twins passed on moving Willingham for a reasonable pitching prospect.

[zenser]

But again, when we have all this money that is not being spent anyways, why does the price on Johnson matter?

 

It matters because I think most of us hope the FO signs more than Josh Johnson.