26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[ThePuck]

If they can get someone who is definitely an improvement on Florimon, spend the money.

 

If they can't do that (and even if they can), they need to get a couple of starting pitchers, then go out and find another starting pitchers. And none of this bargain basement stuff. Quality >>>quantity. Quality + Quantity >>>>>>>> Quantity.

 

Well, they won't trade prospects, and they won't pay for quality free agent pitching, and we have nothing left to really trade that will garnish any quality starting pitching, especially since Perkins is unavailable...

 

So, um, it's the draft

[bird]

Florimon is going to end up a 3 WAR player this year, his bat leaves some to be desired, but by a quick glance it appears he is getting unlucky with his BABIP, if he can somehow get to .670 OPS or so along (12-15HR/10-15 SB) with his defense I think he is a perfectly fine SS for at least the next 2-3 years.

 

I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

 

Agrred. Like I said, Florimon will probably be acceptable through the 2015 season, but not on a contending team.

[big dog]

Well, they won't trade prospects, and they won't pay for quality free agent pitching, and we have nothing left to really trade that will garnish any quality starting pitching, especially since Perkins is unavailable...

 

So, um, it's the draft

 

Maybe, but I'm hoping after this year's experience they shoot a couple levels higher and get someone more plausible.

[Thegrin]

I can't believe this conversation is going on and nobody has mentioned Nishioka. His signing looked great. His actual production was terrible. I'm not saying that Guerrero would be terrible, but Nishioka should be a caution. No matter how good they look on paper, we have to see how they are in the field. That is a big investment and we have 2 2nd base prospects already. Dozier and Rosario. Dozier is certainly a major league fielding talent and he may end up being a decent hitter. Rosario looks like he falls out of bed hitting, but his fielding is suspect. We don't need another MI prospect unless he looks like a major league hitter and fielder.

[big dog]

Actually several people have mentioned Nishioka earlier in the thread.

[Jim H]

Quote from Mike wants Wins

In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us

 

I understand why everyone loves the Rays and the A's right now, but a little prespective would be nice. Are you sure the Rays were trading their guys at their high point value wise or more because they had no choice budget wise? In the case of Garza, they clearly had guys they would rather keep and it looks like the Cubs were willing to overpay for a guy they thought could be an Ace. Even so the Rays would have been a better team for the last 3 years if they could have kept him. The Bartlett trade to San Diego looks good now, but the Rays spent 3 years rotating guys through the shortstop spot, and none of them was as good as Bartlett was. It was likely they would have kept Bartlett if they could of afforded him.

 

The part about platoons is interesting, but don't you think the Rays would rather have one guy you could run out there everyday, rather than platoon? Now the Rays have done a good job managing the situation they are in money wise. But, over the last dozen years they haven't been in the playoffs any more often than the Twins. I wouldn't bet any big money going forward that they will be in the playoffs any more than the Twins over the next dozen years. Clearly, the Twins are attempting to build a core of good young players. We won't know for sure, if they have succeeded for awhile, but I am happy with what they are trying to do. Will I quibble about exactly what choices they make? Of course. But I do think they are tracking the right way.

[nicksaviking]

Can you give an example of what you mean with this?

 

 

In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

 

I wasn't going to make an arguement about how the Twins and Rays only similarity being a low payroll without brining up Mike's fair point.

[Mike Sixel]

Put the rays in the crappy central.....see what happens.

[kab21]

Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

 

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.

 

 

I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

 

Trea Turner would work.

 

I said it before but the Twins need to worry less about what position a player plays and get good players. Hopefully they can find MI'ers and SP'ers but they need talent. Singling out a position or two leads you to overlooking other good values.

[old nurse]

I wasn't going to make an arguement about how the Twins and Rays only similarity being a low payroll without brining up Mike's fair point.

 

You still did not address what you mean by this

"They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system."

Without a top 5 pick what team has developed two proven top of the rotation starters in the last even 10 years?

[kab21]

Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

 

I find 'follow the Cardinals (or any other team) model' to be rather generic and even misleading. The Cardinals success in the last decade was built around a lucky late rd pick (Pujols), an ace that had been released by the Jays with 5.00 career ERA and later drafting/developing an ace (Wainwright). When you have that then it makes a lot of sense to trade for Holliday, sign Beltran and any other going for it move they made. The don't have that and aren't even close. Perhaps Sano or Buxton become that stud to go with Mauer and they find a way to find some pitching but it's not as simple as 'just follow the Cardinals model'.

[old nurse]

Put the rays in the crappy central.....see what happens.

Tampa's winning percentage against the Central teams is currently at .574 which is worse than their overall win percentage. It is only slightly better than Cleveland's .574, and much worse than Detroit's .626

[S.]

Not much of an update, but an update none-the-less

 

"The market for Cuban shortstop Alexander Guerrero is down to four teams, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter links). The Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Braves are the clubs still in the mix to sign the 26-year-old. The Reds have also checked in on Guerrero, though they might not be (or are no longer be) a serious contender since Wolfson didn't include them in his first group.

 

The Dodgers and Twins had previously been cited as two of the then-three clubs known to be interested in Guerrero, and agent Rudy Santin denied reports that his client already had a seven-year deal in place with Los Angeles. Guerrero defected from Cuba in January and is still waiting to be unblocked by the U.S. government before he can pursue a contract with a Major League team."

 

Dodgers, Twins, BoSox, Braves In On Guerrero: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[Willihammer]

I'm encouraged. The Twins seem to be serious. From what I've read, Guerrero's bat falls somewhere between Alexei Ramirez and Cespedes. Something like a .760 OPS bat in the MLB, no? That would be almost a .200 point improvement over the likes of Florimon.

[TheLeviathan]

This would be encouraging.

[Oxtung]

This would be encouraging.

 

If he can stick at SS and play adequate defense. Of course at .760 OPS he would still be pretty good at 2B.

[TheLeviathan]

If he can stick at SS and play adequate defense. Of course at .760 OPS he would still be pretty good at 2B.

 

Frankly, I could care less how he turns out. I'd just be encouraged we took the risk.

[Mr. Brooks]

Frankly, I could care less how he turns out. I'd just be encouraged we took the risk.

 

This.

[jorgenswest]

Every contract is a risk. The Twins need to take this risk. If it turns out to be a Nishioka, I won't be back to criticize this move.

 

The Twins are desperate for talent. They are desperate for talent in the middle infield. They are desperate for talent that will be in their prime when the young talent arrives from the minors. Though the salary may be high, it will cost the Twins nothing in traded talent or surrendered draft picks.

 

There is no reason for the Twins to be outbid for Guerrero.

[cmb0252]

Once again, do people actually like this guys scouting reports? Obviously the Twins do because they are in on him but come on. Signing him just spend money is dumb. Use money wisely.

[TheLeviathan]

Once again, do people actually like this guys scouting reports? Obviously the Twins do because they are in on him but come on. Signing him just spend money is dumb. Use money wisely.

 

He's young, we have lots of money, he'll only cost money....so yeah, I'm ok with this being little more than he's talent and has potential, we should just freaking spend money.

[The Wise One]

Every contract is a risk. The Twins need to take this risk. If it turns out to be a Nishioka, I won't be back to criticize this move.

 

The Twins are desperate for talent. They are desperate for talent in the middle infield. They are desperate for talent that will be in their prime when the young talent arrives from the minors. Though the salary may be high, it will cost the Twins nothing in traded talent or surrendered draft picks.

 

There is no reason for the Twins to be outbid for Guerrero.

 

I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

[The Wise One]

He's young, we have lots of money, he'll only cost money....so yeah, I'm ok with this being little more than he's talent and has potential, we should just freaking spend money.

This is not a personal attack but it does illuminate my point. Where has your praising been for the failed signing? After all, it is only money. No, when the money is spent poorly the fans will complain and call the front office names.

[ThePuck]

I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

 

Try to remember we were losing Hardy while gaining Nishi. Many were happy with getting Hardy and ticked off for him being traded. Maybe THAT had something to do with the less than warm thoughts on Nishi's signing.

[Badsmerf]

I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

At the time, there was a ton of praise. After seeing him play for 2 weeks, there was a ton of hate. The scouts that thought he would be able to adjust were way off. Cubans have had way more success in the MLB as a whole than Japanese players too... especially recently. The Twins dropped the ball scouting Nishi and as a consequence sent one of the best SS in the league packing. It was a complete blunder.

 

This is a different scenario. The Twins have a hole, and the money to plug it for the next 5 years. If this guy doesn't turn out to be Tulo it isn't going to cripple the organization. Plus, if he can't stick at SS they can move him to 1b (if his bat plays up).

[TheLeviathan]

This is not a personal attack but it does illuminate my point. Where has your praising been for the failed signing? After all, it is only money. No, when the money is spent poorly the fans will complain and call the front office names.

 

On BYTO, I defended the Nishi move heavily and ultimately was wrong about him. But I absolutely stand by the thinking. We aggressively went after a talent outside our usual M.O. at a position we had been awful at for years. Our execution was poor, but I still praise the thinking behind it.

 

Some people will do what you say here and some will bend their principles to defend the team no matter what on the flip side.....that ain't me.

[cmathewson]

At the time, there was a ton of praise. After seeing him play for 2 weeks, there was a ton of hate. The scouts that thought he would be able to adjust were way off. Cubans have had way more success in the MLB as a whole than Japanese players too... especially recently. The Twins dropped the ball scouting Nishi and as a consequence sent one of the best SS in the league packing. It was a complete blunder.

 

This is a different scenario. The Twins have a hole, and the money to plug it for the next 5 years. If this guy doesn't turn out to be Tulo it isn't going to cripple the organization. Plus, if he can't stick at SS they can move him to 1b (if his bat plays up).

 

We all gave them the benefit of the doubt in the Nishi sign, presuming that they got the scouting right. And they didn't. It set off a chain reaction of crap that sent us from winning the division one year to losing 96 games the next. Worst. Move. Ever. And more than any other move, it caused the early exit of BS.

 

It's a cautionary tale about what happens when you sign a guy. It's not a risk-free deal. You sign this kid from Cuba, and there are consequences for the roster and the budget. Now, we have a lot more budget room than we did when we signed Nishi. And we don't have a franchise shortstop, as we did when we signed Nishi. So the risk is probably worth it if he can stay at short. Not as a second baseman, though. I have no interest in signing a guy who will be worse than Dozier and who will only serve to block Rosario.

[DaveW]

I liked the nishi move at the time but there were plenty who didnt and cautioned against his freakish BABIP

[Mike Sixel]

I have yet to see a single post praising the Twins for signing Nishi. If the Twins sign a player and they are a bust nobody says at least they tried.

Disagree, lots of us still praise them taking the chance. Plus, they cut the cord right away. Unlike, say, Doumit......we do rip them for the specific decision, but taking the chance was good. BTW, he should have been slated for 2B, and they should have kept Hardy. The whole thing might have been different (doubt it.....).

[Guest USAFChief]

Disagree, lots of us still praise them taking the chance. Plus, they cut the cord right away. Unlike, say, Doumit......we do rip them for the specific decision, but taking the chance was good. BTW, he should have been slated for 2B, and they should have kept Hardy. The whole thing might have been different (doubt it.....).

He was slated for second base (where he got hurt in the first week of the regular season) after they got a look at him in spring tng and admitted he wasn't an MLB shortstop.