Burn Bright, Fade Fast: Remember Addison Reed Before You Pay a Reliever

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I agree that signing free agent relievers is risky and should generally be avoided, but is it really worth bailing on the concept entirely because it burned Falvey once? I don't think it's a bad idea to give it a try every once in a while if a reliever is identified as being worth the price.

The Twins need to keep throwing as many minor league + ST invite dart throws as possible and let the best man win. Throw that money at the rotation instead… 

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Catcher... This is what they brought Caratini in for. We owe him 10 million and we can't recoup that. I want no further investment in the position. Players rebound all the time.

He had his best hitting seasons when he was catching 60 games or less.  It seems his contract was more of another miscalculation by Falvey than he earned it.  I don't necessarily want more investment in the position, but it will be a long season with Caratini and whoever is backing him up.  Catcher's historically don't age well so to expect a rebound at age 33 while playing more behind the plate is wishful thinking in my opinion.

[MeleMouth]

38 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Maybe a minor league catcher

OK.

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

He had his best hitting seasons when he was catching 60 games or less.  It seems his contract was more of another miscalculation by Falvey than he earned it.  I don't necessarily want more investment in the position, but it will be a long season with Caratini and whoever is backing him up.  Catcher's historically don't age well so to expect a rebound at age 33 while playing more behind the plate is wishful thinking in my opinion.

I'm not saying he will rebound... he might. Players bounce up and down season to season. Regardless. We bought him and when we signed him... he was a catcher who hit good for a catcher. That's a big distinction and we dropped 14 million on someone who hit good for a catcher and the plan was to backup Jeffers and be the short side 1B for Clemens. It was a terrible plan. 

Here he is. Sleep in the bed you made. It will be a long season if you don't invest elsewhere. I've used the term punt and I understand that takes guts but... catchers typically don't hit the ball so just ask them to field until Lackey and Tait come in the door. 

Here's why it's OK to punt the position offensively. The White sox had perhaps the worst hitting in baseball in 2026. The Phillies catchers did not hit the ball. The Yankees catchers didn't hit the ball. The Red Sox, Gaurdians... Didn't hit the ball from behind home plate. The Rays were not strong offensively from the Catching position. The Twins were ranked 6th behind the Rockies. 

Our 1B position ranked 26th. Spend the money right here. We can punt the catcher position. 

[djvang]

It's always amazed me how quickly a reliever can go from great to awful and vice-versa.  It's always a gamble.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, Danchat said:

I agree that signing free agent relievers is risky and should generally be avoided, but is it really worth bailing on the concept entirely because it burned Falvey once? I don't think it's a bad idea to give it a try every once in a while if a reliever is identified as being worth the price.

Agreed, especially when they haven’t invested into the bullpen enough in other ways.

[Parfigliano]

The coming CBA  is a box of chocaltes.........

[Jeff K]

22 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

What is your data for this assertion?

None of the Rays, Brewers, or Guardians sign expensive free agent relievers and they make the playoffs regularly. If anything, they tend to do the opposite, which is trade their relievers as they get close to free agency.

Of 2026's free agent relievers, only four of the twenty most expensive AAV signings pitched as relievers for playoff teams (Iglesias, Suarez, Phillips, and Matz), and two of those were pitchers who re-upped with their 2025 teams (Iglesias, Phillips).

One other free agent reliever pitched in the playoffs (Martinez), but he was mostly a starter.

Of the twenty largest AAV's for relievers who switched teams to pitch as relievers, only two (Suarez and Matz) pitched as relievers in the playoffs. Suarez was 4th and Matz was 15h among AAVs. Also, Armstrong and Newcomb also pitched in the playoffs, after receiving the 21st and 23nd highest AAV among free agent relievers in 2026.

The free agent reliever who received the 12th highest AAV, Dominguez, did actually sign with a team that made the playoffs, but he was dumped mid-season, so he didn't pitch in the playoffs.

If two out of 20 free agent relievers who switch teams actually pitch as relievers in the playoffs, that would be a 10% chance of success, which is a lot of risk for little reward. In combination with the fact that signing free agent relievers is rarely done by several playoff teams, particularly for high AAVs, your apparent thesis - that it is necessary to take a chance on expensive free agent relievers in order to make the playoffs - is incorrect.

You extrapolated quite a bit from my simple comment.  The twins can't be afraid to take chances.  Staying the course isn't going to cut it.  The comment is for the team and organization in general.

[MeleMouth]

33 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

You extrapolated quite a bit from my simple comment.  The twins can't be afraid to take chances.  Staying the course isn't going to cut it.  The comment is for the team and organization in general.

Agreed, but chances should be supported by data. That's the difference between people who make money in Vegas and those who don't. 

[nicksaviking]

On 11/1/2026 at 7:51 AM, DJL44 said:

Relief pitcher free agents pay off about as well as scratch off lottery tickets.

Or even high priced relief pitchers pay off about as well as waiver wire and MiLB free agent relief pitchers.

Which has some logic to it. The castoff pitchers already know they have to constantly tweak, adjust and adapt just to scrape buy and stay in the league. The "big" names are more likely to think what they did last year will work again with their new organization, with their new manager in their new ballpark with their new teammates in their new city and their new role.

"Big" being in quotation marks because relievers constantly go from heroes to zeros and vice versa.

[MeleMouth]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Or even high priced relief pitchers pay off about as well as waiver wire and MiLB free agent relief pitchers.

Which has some logic to it. The castoff pitchers already know they have to constantly tweak, adjust and adapt just to scrape buy and stay in the league. The "big" names are more likely to think what they did last year will work again with their new organization, with their new manager in their new ballpark with their new teammates in their new city and their new role.

"Big" being in quotation marks because relievers constantly go from heroes to zeros and vice versa.

Random review: in 2022, the Phillies signed the third and thirteenth highest AAV contracts with big name relievers to upgrade their bullpen. Between Corey Knebel ($10M) and Brad Hand ($6M), they got 0.3 fWAR.

That year's #1 AAV (Braves-Kenley Jansen @ $16M) and #2 (Angels-Raisel Iglesias @ $14.5M) did pitch pretty well, although the vast majority of Iglesias' good results occurred only after he was traded to the Braves mid-season.

The Angels were aggressive that year and also signed the #4 AAV, Aaron Loup, @ $8.5M. He was also a bad value, at 0.3 fWAR.

[nicksaviking]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The 2025 Twins bullpen wasn't built on expensive free agents. It was built by getting them ready internally. 

We traded for Duran and then developed him. Jax... Varland... Sands. through our system. 

The Red Sox bullpen was the best in baseball last season. They signed Chapman but the rest was getting players ready for the job. Weissert was acquired as part of package of players in the Verdugo trade. Whitlock was a rule 5. Bernandino was a waiver sign much like our Gomez. Bello was pulled from the starter pool and he transitioned fairly quickly. 

 

 

If a team were to sign an expesive-ish free agent reliever, this is what you should focus on. Veterans that have performed well on MULTIPLE teams.

For example, Addison Reed did NOT produce well for multiple teams. For one reason or another, he pitched well for the Mets. In his other stops he ranged from unspectacular to late inning liability. On the other hand, a guy like Tyler Clippard was rarely inspiring, but also  rarely let any team down.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

You extrapolated quite a bit from my simple comment.  The twins can't be afraid to take chances.  Staying the course isn't going to cut it.  The comment is for the team and organization in general.

Not with the bullpen. The Twins have hit at an extremely high rate when they transition starters to relievers. The catch being that it typically takes at least a year for the results to show up. Free agency on the other hand - low hit rate for the Twins. And most teams in general. 

[Twins GFP]

I love watching people trying to justify spending gobs of money on FA pitchers....

Can anybody tell me where the Twins got Yoendrys Gomez this year? Over the past few years how much have they paid for Danny Coulombe? Brock Stewart?

Almost all relievers are failed SP. The Twins have a haul of SP4/5 type guys in MiLB. Expect to see a handful of them (Festa?) converted. Find reliable guys that can handle the RP rollercoaster. 

[old nurse]

On 11/1/2026 at 9:09 AM, MeleMouth said:

What is your data for this assertion?

None of the Rays, Brewers, or Guardians sign expensive free agent relievers and they make the playoffs regularly. If anything, they tend to do the opposite, which is trade their relievers as they get close to free agency.

Of 2026's free agent relievers, only four of the twenty most expensive AAV signings pitched as relievers for playoff teams (Iglesias, Suarez, Phillips, and Matz), and two of those were pitchers who re-upped with their 2025 teams (Iglesias, Phillips).

One other free agent reliever pitched in the playoffs (Martinez), but he was mostly a starter.

Of the twenty largest AAV's for relievers who switched teams to pitch as relievers, only two (Suarez and Matz) pitched as relievers in the playoffs. Suarez was 4th and Matz was 15h among AAVs. Also, Armstrong and Newcomb also pitched in the playoffs, after receiving the 21st and 23nd highest AAV among free agent relievers in 2026.

The free agent reliever who received the 12th highest AAV, Dominguez, did actually sign with a team that made the playoffs, but he was dumped mid-season, so he didn't pitch in the playoffs.

If two out of 20 free agent relievers who switch teams actually pitch as relievers in the playoffs, that would be a 10% chance of success, which is a lot of risk for little reward. In combination with the fact that signing free agent relievers is rarely done by several playoff teams, particularly for high AAVs, your apparent thesis - that it is necessary to take a chance on expensive free agent relievers in order to make the playoffs - is incorrect.

You say that the Rays don’t sign expensive relievers, then use Matz as an example of the high priced relievers that worked. 

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, old nurse said:

You say that the Rays don’t sign expensive relievers, then use Matz as an example of the high priced relievers that worked. 

Matz was signed to be a starter and moved to the bullpen.

[MeleMouth]

41 minutes ago, old nurse said:

You say that the Rays don’t sign expensive relievers, then use Matz as an example of the high priced relievers that worked. 

Of free agent relievers signed in 2026, Matz had the 15th highest AAV @ $7.5M (13th if you count only relievers signed to be relievers). It's up to you whether you call that "expensive" or "high priced." It's definitely less than the eight figures people are bandying about for pitchers like Bednar, Morejon, and Minter.

Also, to be clear, I said "pitched in the playoffs," not "worked."  In 2026, Matz had 0.0 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR. He pitched in the playoffs because the Rays brought him there, not because he was a crucial part of their success.

The Rays got a lot more out of the $925,000 they paid for free agent Cam Booser (0.8 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR).

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, Danchat said:

I agree that signing free agent relievers is risky and should generally be avoided, but is it really worth bailing on the concept entirely because it burned Falvey once? I don't think it's a bad idea to give it a try every once in a while if a reliever is identified as being worth the price.

Because it burned Falvey once?  No!!! I don't know that I would go so far as to "bail on the concept entirely".  However, high dollar RPs has been the worst free agent investment in baseball.  If they had everything else they needed to be a true contender, it might still make sense but that's not the case.