The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Tender, Trade or Let Bailey Ober Walk?

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lawler is terrible at short according to fangraphs. 

The reason that I mentioned Lawlar is because he is young and athletic. The Diamondbacks seemed to have already moved on from him with Ryan Waldschmidt. They have Corbin Carroll in RF. Arizona wants a LH bat. The Twins can provide 2 (Roden for LF and Larnach for DH) plus a starting pitcher. It is worth a call and it may not work out, but Lawlar still has some promise. 

Several people have trashed that thought as being unrealistic. Why? Others claim Lawlar or asking about Justin Martinez, another volatile talent, aren't worth are players. One of the keys to a good roster is fit. The players in MLB all have talent but it takes opportunity, placement, and patience. Ober, Kremer, Roden, Larnach, and even Wallner (not so much) can work somewhere else. So can Royce Lewis. The Twins front office needs to find the fit.

FWIW, Lawlar arrived in MLB with a 60 tag on his defense but was rattled by his first go arounds and then injured. Then Perdomo blossomed and shortstop was no longer a need for Arizona. The talent is still there with Lawlar. The Twins need to push Marek Houston at some point if they think he is the answer or just run with Culpepper at shortstop. My suggestion to trade for Jordan Lawler is to raise the bar of the 12th and 13th players on the roster. It is worth a discussion between Arizona and Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I haven't checked the numbers but I really wouldn't check the numbers. His sample size has to be less than 100 innings. 

 

They also scouted him in the minors. 

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I haven't checked the numbers but I really wouldn't check the numbers. His sample size has to be less than 100 innings. 

 

They also scouted him in the minors. 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They also scouted him in the minors. 

And they deployed him at SS when he reached the majors at age 20. Where he played 13 games. Perdomo has played in 157 and 161 games in the past two seasons so it's a small sample size at a very young age. 

The other consideration. Perfect players are expensive. He's 23 years old. We pay those coaches to do something. 

And the other consideration. He's an example. You can pick someone else and let's see if we can acquire that guy. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

And they deployed him at SS when he reached the majors at age 20. Where he played 13 games. Perdomo has played in 157 and 161 games in the past two seasons so it's a small sample size at a very young age. 

The other consideration. Perfect players are expensive. He's 23 years old. We pay those coaches to do something. 

And the other consideration. He's an example. You can pick someone else and let's see if we can acquire that guy. 

I'd take him as the RH pinch hitting OF. And emergency shortstop. Larnach for him straight up. AZ desperate for LH hitters. 

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd take him as the RH pinch hitting OF. And emergency shortstop. Larnach for him straight up. AZ desperate for LH hitters. 

Ok

But... if that's his utilization. I'm passing on the deal. 

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd take him as the RH pinch hitting OF. And emergency shortstop. Larnach for him straight up. AZ desperate for LH hitters. 

Maybe Arizona wants Roden and Ober. Whatever.

Lawlar would be much more than a pinch runner and defensive replacement. I think he would get 300+ PA.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Ok

But... if that's his utilization. I'm passing on the deal. 

Why? Who would you rather have? 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why? Who would you rather have? 

If he has any defesive ability in the infielder. Doesn't have to be elite. He'd be my choice. Actually he is my choice but if Shelton is just going to use him to pinch hit. I'll pass. Yes, there will be times to pinch hit and pinch run but... Shelton would have to understand. He's coming in to compete. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

If he has any defesive ability in the infielder. Doesn't have to be elite. He'd be my choice. Actually he is my choice but if Shelton is just going to use him to pinch hit. I'll pass. Yes, there will be times to pinch hit and pinch run but... Shelton would have to understand. He's coming in to compete. 

 

What does compete even mean? Because you better not make decisions on spring training..... Which of you want to bench so Lawler can get a fair shake, even if that OF is hitting? I've never understood this take. If Jenkins struggles for two weeks, you going to bench him? Yuck. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does compete even mean? Because you better not make decisions on spring training..... Which of you want to bench so Lawler can get a fair shake, even if that OF is hitting? I've never understood this take. If Jenkins struggles for two weeks, you going to bench him? Yuck. 

You should never make decisions on spring training.

There are 4 infield positions and there are 6 players. Plus there is a DH position that can be utilized. Who has to be benched? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

You should never make decisions on spring training.

There are 4 infield positions and there are 6 players. Plus there is a DH position that can be utilized. Who has to be benched? 

Well, we were talking about an OF competing to play in the OF....

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, we were talking about an OF competing to play in the OF....

For Lawlar I'm looking at the infield. 3B, SS and 2B. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

For Lawlar I'm looking at the infield. 3B, SS and 2B. 

You're going to bench Lee? Or Culpeper? I'm glad you aren't the GM. I guess we'll disagree. No biggie. Have a good day?

[Riverbrian]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

You're going to bench Lee? Or Culpeper? I'm glad you aren't the GM. I guess we'll disagree. No biggie. Have a good day?

Nobody has to be benched. 

Have a good day as well. 

[DarrenPS]

With the emergence of Dean Kremer, there is no way the Twins should tender Bailey a contract and expect him to be a starter. I like the thought of him in the bullpen, but is he worth the price for unknown bullpen results? To me, that's the real conversation here. If his velo is gone, his time as a starter is done

[Mike Sixel]

Also, AZ owner has said they are cutting payroll next year .... So they aren't dealing cheap players most likely..

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Like I said, as a RP, I'm all in. 

I couldn’t disagree with you more Mike. Why would you want to give a 1st time reliever $7 million? The kings of SSS? You really want to lock in someone who might top out at 91 MPH instead of a pre-arb pitcher who can throw 98?

[Cris E]

Non-tender Ober with the offer that he can come back in a swing role that may involve a bunch of AAA time for $4m, maybe $5m. If he can sign on with Washington or the Angels for 2 years and $15m then good for him. But if he's who most of us think he is he may end up back here at $4m. It will come down to whether he wants to be here in a non-starter role (or deep on the rotation list), or if he wants to start elsewhere and get paid like a starter. Chances are good he takes a look and gets a better deal elsewhere in the pen at 2/$10m, but if he doesn't he can come back and beat out some of our long guys below arb pay rates.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I couldn’t disagree with you more Mike. Why would you want to give a 1st time reliever $7 million? The kings of SSS? You really want to lock in someone who might top out at 91 MPH instead of a pre-arb pitcher who can throw 98?

Because there will be a floor. And who else you going to put there? This team likely can't buy a legit FA..... Not this year. Where else will they spend money? If there was a legit FA out there that made sense, I'd say back up the truck. But who is that? That will sign here?

And, imo, it woould be foolish to trade legit prospects for a veteran with less than three years of control, but whose giving that up?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If he has any defesive ability in the infielder. Doesn't have to be elite. He'd be my choice. Actually he is my choice but if Shelton is just going to use him to pinch hit. I'll pass. Yes, there will be times to pinch hit and pinch run but... Shelton would have to understand. He's coming in to compete. 

 

I really do not think that is a concern. There is quite. difference between a player like Ben Ross or DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Jordan Lawlar. Shelton knows what he is doing.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, we were talking about an OF competing to play in the OF....

Somewhat similar to Ryan Kreidler, Jordan Lawlar is able to play pretty much anywhere. I'm not sure why anyone wants to pigeonhole a utility player when their skills adapt to many positions. To be fair, Arizona used Lawlar primarily in the outfield.

On a separate note, I believe Ryan Kreidler was a decent player for the Twins this season. He provided stability at shortstop when it was sorely needed. 

[Vanimal46]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where else will they spend money?

Aren’t there 7-8 teams that would need to become cap compliant? Haven’t we learned our lesson with the Kyle Farmers of the world? 

The only lesson I’ve learned from DJL44 is avoiding relievers in that tier of price. When they stink you’re stuck with them. Especially with this ownership family. 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Aren’t there 7-8 teams that would need to become cap compliant? Haven’t we learned our lesson with the Kyle Farmers of the world? 

The only lesson I’ve learned from DJL44 is avoiding relievers in that tier of price. When they stink you’re stuck with them. Especially with this ownership family. 

I'm not interested in any average free agent. So I have no idea where they can really spend money. 

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I really do not think that is a concern. There is quite. difference between a player like Ben Ross or DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Jordan Lawlar. Shelton knows what he is doing.

I believe he would. 

 

[SE23]

What about Mauicio Dubon as a possible 2B signing? He's a defensive upgrade and can play SS too. Not much pop, but he also doesn't strike out much. Had a .321 OBP this year.

[Dawgzilla]

12 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Do you want more than "Everybody clap your hands!"

Ahhh...yes!!!

[GNess]

The question to tender or non tender Ober seems secondary. Do the Twins have enough SP quality to contend? 

Likely not, consider Lopez and Ryan at the top of the rotation. Both have major qiuestion marks - Lopez coming off another surgery and Ryan yet another disappointing second half.

Bradley seems set as the # 3 without any significant addition or movement on Lopez or Ryan.

The 4 / 5 Spots would be held down by Kremer and Matthews/Prielipp/Rojas. Thst's a surplus of two SP. 

The Twins need to add a dependable starter that raises the level of the overall rotation if possible. Having Ober in the rotation doesn''t move the needle much in either direction, But if Ober cracks the top 5 on opening day - it means a number of other pitchers likely failed. ( e.g. Matthews, Prielipp, Rojas, Kremer)