Twins Prospect Profile: JP Smith Is Starting to Find His Swing

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Malamut Photography (photo of JP Smith)

There is a simple reality for prospects who are limited defensively to first base: they have to hit. First base is one of the positions where offensive production carries an especially high burden. A player doesn't necessarily need to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender, but he needs to provide enough at the plate to justify putting his name in the lineup every day.

The Minnesota Twins have seen this dynamic play out with former first-round pick Aaron Sabato. Sabato has worked his way to Triple-A, but his offensive production hasn't developed to the point where he looks like part of Minnesota's long-term plans.

That brings us to JP Smith. Smith doesn't have Sabato's draft pedigree, but the Twins saw enough offensive potential to select him in the 17th round of the 2025 MLB Draft out of California State University, Sacramento. His professional career got off to a relatively quiet start, but there are signs that Smith is beginning to figure things out.

And that's exactly what the Twins need to see from a first-base prospect.

MLB Draft and Professional Debut

Smith spent three seasons at Sacramento State, where he hit .298/.372/.581 with a .953 OPS. His production was consistently strong during his first two seasons, with a wRC+ above 120 in each year. His final collegiate season wasn't quite as productive. Smith's wRC+ dipped to 105, which may have contributed to him remaining on the board until the 17th round.

Still, Minnesota saw enough in the right-handed hitter to give him an opportunity. The Twins sent Smith to Fort Myers after he signed, allowing him to make his professional debut in the Florida State League. He appeared in 24 games and hit .237/.297/.344 with five extra-base hits, a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 6.9% walk rate and an 84 wRC+.

Those aren't particularly eye-catching numbers. There was, however, one stretch that offered a glimpse of what Smith could become. At the beginning of August, he was named FSL Player of the Week after going 11-for-23 (.478) over a five-game stretch with five extra-base hits.

His overall debut remained unspectacular, but there are some understandable challenges for college players transitioning into professional baseball. Smith had played a full collegiate season, stopped playing during the draft process and then had to ramp back up for his professional debut.

A Better Approach

Smith struggled out of the gate. Over his first 36 games, he hit .212/.319/.356 with nine extra-base hits. His .675 OPS wasn't what Minnesota wanted to see from a player whose future is tied heavily to his bat.

Something started to click over his next 36 games. During that stretch, Smith raised his on-base percentage to .365 and his slugging percentage to .500. More importantly, he hit 10 home runs and four doubles. The power was beginning to show up.

But one of the most encouraging developments wasn't necessarily found in his batting average or home-run total. It was his approach. During his professional debut, Smith posted a 34.1% O-Swing rate, meaning he swung at more than one-third of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone. In 2026, that number dropped to 24.3%.

Smith was becoming more selective about which pitches he attacked. For a hitter whose value is going to be tied so closely to his offensive production, that development matters. The improved approach helped earn Smith a promotion to Cedar Rapids.

Hitting the Next Level

Smith hasn't exactly slowed down since arriving in High-A. Through his first 20 games with the Kernels, he's hitting .309/.435/.559 for a .994 OPS. His 145 wRC+ demonstrates just how productive he's been relative to the league.

The plate-discipline improvements have continued as well. His walk rate has climbed from 14.7% in his time with Fort Myers to 17.8% in Cedar Rapids, while his strikeout rate has dropped from 20.1% to 15.6%.

That's the kind of combination Minnesota wants to see. On August 25, Smith put those skills on display. He went 4-for-6 with a home run and four RBI, providing another reminder that the offensive tools that made him an intriguing draft pick are starting to translate.

There is another interesting element to his success this season. Smith has faced older pitchers in more than 70% of his plate appearances, and he's posted a .929 OPS against them. That doesn't mean he's finished developing, but it provides some additional context for his production. He's not simply beating up on pitchers his own age.

There is, however, one area where Smith needs to improve. Smith is a right-handed hitter, but left-handed pitching has given him some trouble. In 81 plate appearances against lefties this season, he's hitting .219/.346/.438 with four home runs and two doubles. The .783 OPS isn't terrible, particularly with the power production, but it's noticeably below his overall performance.

That will be something to monitor as he continues moving through the Twins system. If Smith wants to become a regular first baseman at the major-league level, he needs to show that he can punish left-handed pitching. For Smith, that makes the progress he's made with his approach particularly important.

What Comes Next?

It's still far too early to make any definitive predictions about Smith's future. He's played just 20 games at High-A, and there are plenty of challenges ahead.

Double-A will provide another significant test. Pitchers will attack his weaknesses more aggressively. His performance against left-handed pitching will be worth watching. The Twins will also want to see whether his improved plate discipline remains consistent as Smith faces better competition.

But there is something different about Smith's profile now than there was a year ago. The 17th-round pick isn't just putting up better numbers. He's showing development in areas that can help make those numbers sustainable.

He's chasing fewer pitches outside the strike zone. He's walking more. He's striking out less. He's producing power. And he's holding his own against older pitchers. That's a good foundation.

Smith's path is also a reminder that prospect development doesn't always happen in a straight line. His first professional season didn't immediately scream future big-leaguer. His first 36 games in 2026 weren't particularly impressive, either. But he kept making adjustments.

Smith will need to continue producing as he moves up the organizational ladder, and he'll need to find more success against left-handed pitching. The margin for error will become smaller at every level. Eventually, the Twins will need to determine whether his offensive ceiling is high enough to overcome the limitations of his defensive profile.

For now, though, Smith is giving the organization reasons to keep watching. For a player whose future will almost certainly be determined by his bat, that's exactly the kind of progress the Twins want to see.

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What stands out about JP Smith so far in his career? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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The photo of JP Smith at the top of this article is from Dee Malamut of Malamut Photography, specifically last night's Kernels game in Cedar Rapids. You will see Dee at most Kernels home games, and we are lucky enough to be able to use some of his great photos. And, if you're planning on going to Cedar Rapids, or maybe at Twins Fest, you can order some photos from Dee himself. Check out the home page and find links to the 2026 games (and further back). You can also use the search functionality and type in names of current or past Kernels players and find their photos. The current Kernels roster has Top 20 prospects like Vahn Lackey, Eduardo Tait, and Yasser Mercedes. Marek Houston, Riley Quick, Khadim Diaw, Enrique Jimenez, Brandon Winokur are Top 20 prospect who were with the Kernels earlier this year. Caden Kendle and Adrian Bohorquez were in Cedar Rapids until recently.  Want to see more Cedar Rapids Kernels photos, check out Friday's Kernels game photos.

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[LyleCole]

I mentioned this in the game thread, but one of the keys to JP Smith II becoming a legitimate major league prospect is his poor conditioning.  When I was at the Miracle Mighty Mussel game recently he trotted out to be the first base "coach" and it looked like an overweight guy they brought in from the stands.  

He can obviously hit, but the 6-2 240 they list him at is probably understated.  

Spend this offseason conditioning and building muscle.   It would be a worthwhile investment for the Twins to find JP a personal trainer and nutritionist, and a well conditioned JP Smith at a real 6-2, 240 could become a MLB level hitter.   

[rdehring]

Interesting, especially considering the hole first base has been for the past several years.  Hopefully, Lewis and/or Clemens will be the answer for a few years.  But after them?  You talk about his need to make it with his bat.  How good/bad/indifferent is his defense?

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Interesting, especially considering the hole first base has been for the past several years.  Hopefully, Lewis and/or Clemens will be the answer for a few years.  But after them?  You talk about his need to make it with his bat.  How good/bad/indifferent is his defense?

Defense at 1B matters a lot now with 30 DH spots. Sabato is hitting pretty well at AAA but his glove work keeps him in the minors.

[mikelink45]

Interesting article, but I don't have much faith in developing first base prospects. It seems as if our strategy is either to pick up a veteran on a one-year prove it contract or switch one of our players who can't handle their current position like Lewis then fill the position that way. Or use our extra catcher.