The Twins May Have Dodged Disaster with Framber Valdez

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Twins wanted Framber Valdez this offseason. It was one of the biggest free-agent pursuits of the winter, and for a minute there, it looked like Minnesota might actually land the left-handed ace. Ultimately, Valdez signed a three-year, $115-million contract with the Detroit Tigers, leaving the Twins without the big pitching addition many fans were hoping for. It was a late lunge after an unexpected pair of major leadership changes during the winter; there just wasn't enough runway to land the plane.

According to Bobby Nightingale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins made a late pursuit of Valdez and put a multi-year offer on the table for the left-handed All-Star. Valdez was the last marquee free agent available, and signed on Feb. 10. Tom Pohlad later confirmed the pursuit and made it clear the Twins were willing to go well beyond their typical spending comfort zone if Zoll believed the move was right for the organization.

At the time, the Twins missing out on Valdez became another piece of evidence for those who believed Pohlad had talked a bigger game than he was actually willing to play. The team had reportedly made a serious offer for one of the best starting pitchers available, but Valdez ultimately chose Detroit, and later reporting made it clear that the team was never especially close to wooing the southpaw. The more we see from Valdez this season, however, the more it looks like the Twins may dodged a bullet.

There's no way around it: Valdez has been bad this season. Through 26 starts, the 32-year-old lefty has a 4.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. His 1.5 fWAR is hardly what the Tigers envisioned when they handed him a huge annual average value (AAV). His expected ERA sits at 4.50, suggesting his results are a fairly accurate representation of how he has pitched.

Even more concerning is what has happened to his ability to miss bats. Valdez has struck out just 17.4% of opposing hitters, the lowest rate of his career and a significant drop from last season. His whiff percentage has also fallen to a career-low 19.8%, down 6.8 percentage points from last year.

Those numbers are particularly concerning for the Tigers, because Valdez's success has always been built around generating weak contact while still having enough swing-and-miss ability to get out of trouble. His velocity has taken a step backward across his pitch mix, providing another potential warning sign. The Tigers have been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season, and the performance of Framber Valdez is certainly part of what has ailed the team.

Perhaps most concerning is that there isn't an obvious injury explanation for the dip in stuff. Valdez has remained in Detroit's rotation and hasn't missed time because of an injury. The only games he missed came because of the six-game suspension he served after intentionally throwing a ball at Boston's Trevor Story in May.

Valdez will turn 33 after the season, making it possible the Twins were looking at an aging pitcher whose best days are behind him. That doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it makes committing more than $100 million to him considerably more frightening. The Tigers can probably survive the Valdez contract if it turns into a bad one. Detroit typically operates with a payroll that gives the organization more room to absorb a mistake of this magnitude. The Twins have very little margin for error.

We've already seen what happens when Minnesota gets locked into an expensive contract that doesn't work out. Carlos Correa's deal has become a perfect example, as the Twins eventually agreed to pay him $10 million per season for three years not to play for them. Imagine making a similar decision with Valdez while he's earning roughly $38 million per season.

There's also another reason the Twins may have been better off avoiding Valdez: they don't necessarily need to buy a starting rotation. Their pitching situation is actually set up fairly well for next season. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley are a locked-in trio to lead the starting rotation next season. They also have Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Connor Prielipp and Kendrys Rojas, while newly-added Dean Kremer provides another experienced option with another year of arbitration remaining. Had Minnesota signed Valdez, one of those young pitchers would almost certainly have been pushed out of the rotation picture. Instead, the Twins have flexibility to see what their young arms can do and determine where they actually need help.

There's certainly a fair argument that the Twins should have been more aggressive this offseason. Pohlad said he was willing to make a splash, and the organization ultimately didn't make the kind of major investment that would have demonstrated a dramatic change in philosophy. Valdez, however, is a different conversation. He comes with makeup concerns, which the team might have factored into its reluctance to go as far as Detroit did. He also comes with major performance red flags, and the smaller-payroll Twins were wise not to let him become a drag on their operation.

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What do you think? Were the Twins lucky to miss out on Framber Valdez, or would you still rather have the veteran lefty locked into the rotation despite his struggles this season? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Hunter4848]

They didn't dodge a bullet because they were never in the hunt for him...

[Colbeh]

7 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

They didn't dodge a bullet because they were never in the hunt for him...

Thats confirmed that the Twins were never in the hunt for him?

Or is this your usual negative nonsense?

[Cris E]

The claim was pretty thin, but it was never disproven.  I think it was probably along the lines of

"Hey, would you take a one year deal?"

"No, four or five is what we want."

"Yikes, OK, good luck."

[bean5302]

Tom Pohlad talked about the pursuit of Framber Valdez, but it's not like there were any numbers tied to it so it's hard to gauge if the Twins were making legitimate offers. I'd wager the answer to that was "no" considering there were other targets available and the Twins didn't sign anybody or making any significant changes to the payroll after that point.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/tom-pohlad-claims-twins-tried-to-make-a-splash-with-framber-valdez

[PuckettPond]

At times the front office puts out stories to keep the fans happy, engaged, hopeful & excited. We need to get younger, healthier not older with their better days behind them with only stories of the good old days. "Past performance does not guarantee future results" EF Hutton

[Linus]

Raise your hand if you think the Twins made a credible offer. I don’t. 

[Dman]

While I don't know how serious they were I was one who wanted them to go after Valdez.  He seemed like a good fit as the Twins could have used a lefty.  Given the price it would have cost for the results he's had I feel lucky the Tigers got him.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would have been disappointed if the Twins had signed Valdez. Any pitcher who would intentionally  cross up his own catcher, a little used sub, and drill his own catcher, does not need to be in  the Twins' clubhouse. Then because he was mad at himself for those Boston home runs which he allowed, he hit Trevor Story. What did that accomplish? No way I want him on the Twins. 

[old nurse]

Velocity drop has been a sign of UCL damage. 

What the Twins offered? Enough so that Detroit gave him the contract they did when it looked like there was limited interest 

[LastOnePicked]

Are we really at the "Hey, the Twins may stink, but at least they didn't sign (insert washout free agent here)!" point already?

Let's save these kinds of puffy posts for November.

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, Linus said:

Raise your hand if you think the Twins made a credible offer. I don’t. 

Technically if they afforded him 1/4 of what he got, it was credible because that is what he is worth. 9.5M/yr.