The Smartest Reliever Targets for the Twins Aren't the Flashiest Ones

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What players would San Diego receive from Minnesota to accept moving Morejon and Miller? Be realistic.

 

Whomever it takes. I don't care. Is my point not coming across? Is there something that I'm not making really crystal clear here? That I would literally trade EVERY. SINGLE. PROSPECT. IN. THE. TWINS. SYSTEM for a World Series Championship. Everybody. Every single prospect. Everyone. I hope that's more clear now.

Everybody. Not one single prospect left on the entire farm system. Wichita, St. Paul, Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers forfeiting games because there's nobody left on the roster. I literally don't care.

Maybe talking about eventual production from hypothetically good some day prospects is all you care about, and an infinite 81-81 record just missing the playoffs is your hope and dream. Looking in the stands at Target Field and comments on this forum and other sites, most people would like a World Series caliber team.

Does it take Walker Jenkins to make this trade happen? No sweat off my brow. I don't care. Toss in Lackey to the guys headed out of the door? No problem. But the trades have to be combined with moves that make the Twins a World Series competitor. This year... and for however many years we need to justify the trading of assets.

Either that or don't make any upgrades, sell off Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Bell, and pretty much every single other free agent at the end of the year. I want a championship caliber team. Today or next year or the year after. I want the goal of my team to be aiming for a Championship. Not a .500 record with a reach goal of winning the ********* division in baseball followed by an immediate sweep out of the playoffs.

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Currently, the Twins are at 17-8 v. the other 4 current Wildcard Team. (Yankees - Guards - Astros - Red Sox) 

Texas - Chicago - Tampa are the projected Division Winners.

If a Team that’s “competitive” doesn’t see that group of 7 Teams as an opportunity to get through more than one round, not sure when….. right??? ….  Seriously don’t know when they would have a more open path?

Chicago is 2.5 games ahead of Twins at this point…….85-77 has a real shot to win the division. I don’t see the logic in not acting on this opportunity……..they don’t need to sell 4 guys for Mason Miller or the like.

To your point about being aggressive - simplest move in my mind is keeping Jeffers! Trade Caratini to a team in need of a Catcher that can play 1B & is controlled through next year…… throw in whatever prospect arm, for a reliever with probability to be effective.

Trade an attractive package to Giants for Arraez.

Big ….. 2B & offense upgrade with Arraez and then the added reliever. To me, they make a solid run with this group.

85-77 does have a shot at winning the division if no team makes upgrades. The Twins are projected at 80-82 right now, though, so even if no team in the Central manages to show up for the rest of the year, the Twins are still 5 games out of a "shot" at making the playoffs.

 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, clone52 said:

Let's right a wrong and go get Varland.

 

Opening offer is Rojas and Roden.

Actual deal is Rodriguez, Raya and CJ Culpepper.

 

Used the Mason Miller trade as a starting point.  That was Miller and a mid rotation starter for a package like Jenkins, Dasan Hill, Kendry Rojas and CJ Culpepper.

#1, only asking for Varland.  #2 Miller was elite for 1.5 years.  Varland has only been that level for half a year. 

I think my trade offer is good.  Maybe even swap on Soto to replace Raya of the Jays insist.

Why I do it?

Varland for Roden/Rojas is only a positive if Rojas becomes a 1 or 2 DP long term.  Its embarrassing.

Rodriguez, Raya (or Soto) and CJ Culpepper for Roden and Rojas looks like a sweet deal for the Jays, but it's a trade loss I can deal with.

 

What do ya think?

If the Jays think Varland stays at this level until next July, he would have one year less control.  A trade similar to Miller could be

Varland and a mid rotation starter
For
Lackey, Hill, Soto and Ellwonger

 

Do the Jays take that risk or do they jump on a deal now.

Four more years of control with Varland - they assume they will be competitive within next two seasons and he’ll be a big reason why, for the Jays.

Rojas, straight up …… he’s 23. Louie was in MiLB all of age 23 season. Louie was 0-6 and looked like he might wash out in ‘24 at age 26. Louie is 28……..I get the excitement & pull from a “Minnesota” perspective but I don’t get the continual angst over the trade??? Bottom line is the Jays are not trading Varland.

[mickster]

15 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Sounds good to me. I'd love either Brazoban or Weaver (or both) in a deal with the Mets. Curious how much that would cost, but I'd be all for it. Good article!

Maybe you can get them for Erod and Wallner and a single A player

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

85-77 does have a shot at winning the division if no team makes upgrades. The Twins are projected at 80-82 right now, though, so even if no team in the Central manages to show up for the rest of the year, the Twins are still 5 games out of a "shot" at making the playoffs.

 

The “Twins are projected” with no additions?? How does that relate to a Team that adds a couple key pieces? …….. Teams will add - who adds what?

They play the A.L. Central 16 more games & the A.L. West 17 games. The O’s & Giants in one series each……., 39 games of remaining 54 v. teams that are not on different level.

The Sox are 2.5 games ahead of Twins & Guards are .5 games ahead of Twins. They only need to “not show up” for 2 days and team catches them. 6-4 v. Guards in ‘26 with 3 left in Minneapolis…….Twins get 1 of 3 and they have tie breaker. They have tie breaker in hand with Astros & Red Sox…… not a big deal, until it potentially becomes a big deal.

Twins were “projected” to win how many games at start of Season - 76? ……. Jeffers missed 60+ games. They just got a “fifth starter” back 2 days ago ………. seems if they add 2 contributors (with existing group in tact) they are as likely as anyone to obtain 3rd Wildcard and a break or two from winning Division.

I will grant - to my eye, the White Sox schedule after next 6-7 games seems pretty soft!

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

The “Twins are projected” with no additions?? How does that relate to a Team that adds a couple key pieces? …….. Teams will add - who adds what?

They play the A.L. Central 16 more games & the A.L. West 17 games. The O’s & Giants in one series each……., 39 games of remaining 54 v. teams that are not on different level.

The Sox are 2.5 games ahead of Twins & Guards are .5 games ahead of Twins. They only need to “not show up” for 2 days and team catches them. 6-4 v. Guards in ‘26 with 3 left in Minneapolis…….Twins get 1 of 3 and they have tie breaker. They have tie breaker in hand with Astros & Red Sox…… not a big deal, until it potentially becomes a big deal.

Twins were “projected” to win how many games at start of Season - 76? ……. Jeffers missed 60+ games. They just got a “fifth starter” back 2 days ago ………. seems if they add 2 contributors (with existing group in tact) they are as likely as anyone to obtain 3rd Wildcard and a break or two from winning Division.

I will grant - to my eye, the White Sox schedule after next 6-7 games seems pretty soft!

Because the Twins can't call 24 teams in MLB and tell them not to trade anybody to other teams in the AL Central.

The Twins are not a playoff caliber competitive team right now. They're 9th in the AL in run differential and 20th in MLB. 

For every bad bounce you're going to argue for the Twins like 'Ryan Jeffers was out' (Twins went 25-22 with Jeffers out) or 'whatever player ate Taco Bell lettuce' there are two good bounces like Brooks Lee's expected production is .226/.285/.329 OPS .614 wRC+ 75ish, but through incredible luck, he's league average at OPS .729. You think that's going to continue? Ryan Kreidler has hit MLB average at SS. Josh Bell has been hitting like it's 2019 again lately. Those abberrations are not going to continue.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Because the Twins can't call 24 teams in MLB and tell them not to trade anybody to other teams in the AL Central.

The Twins are not a playoff caliber competitive team right now. They're 9th in the AL in run differential and 20th in MLB. 

For every bad bounce you're going to argue for the Twins like 'Ryan Jeffers was out' (Twins went 25-22 with Jeffers out) or 'whatever player ate Taco Bell lettuce' there are two good bounces like Brooks Lee's expected production is .226/.285/.329 OPS .614 wRC+ 75ish, but through incredible luck, he's league average at OPS .729. You think that's going to continue? Ryan Kreidler has hit MLB average at SS. Josh Bell has been hitting like it's 2019 again lately. Those abberrations are not going to continue.

Are you The Great Kreskin?

Lee is who he is after 4 months. Bell can go away tomorrow and Larnach & Keaschall slot at DH without losing a thing.

Kreidler hasn’t hit in more than 3 games for the last month and Team is just fine.

My point is, what you stated. the Team went 25-22 without Jeffers so why think with Jeffers they would back up?

It seems you missed or are ignoring what I stated at the Top……..”Teams will add - who adds what?”

Are The Guardians a “playoff caliber team?” …… somebody wins out, regardless of what the underlying analytics present as the assured future.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

46 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Four more years of control with Varland - they assume they will be competitive within next two seasons and he’ll be a big reason why, for the Jays.

Rojas, straight up …… he’s 23. Louie was in MiLB all of age 23 season. Louie was 0-6 and looked like he might wash out in ‘24 at age 26. Louie is 28……..I get the excitement & pull from a “Minnesota” perspective but I don’t get the continual angst over the trade??? Bottom line is the Jays are not trading Varland.

Rojas still looks like a potential #2 starter. That is much more valuable than a closer. 

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Are you The Great Kreskin?

Lee is who he is after 4 months. Bell can go away tomorrow and Larnach & Keaschall slot at DH without losing a thing.

Kreidler hasn’t hit in more than 3 games for the last month and Team is just fine.

My point is, what you stated. the Team went 25-22 without Jeffers so why think with Jeffers they would back up?

It seems you missed or are ignoring what I stated at the Top……..”Teams will add - who adds what?”

Are The Guardians a “playoff caliber team?” …… somebody wins out, regardless of what the underlying analytics present as the assured future.

Brooks Lee is the same guy he was last year and the year before. Exactly the same player. Just like Javier Baez last year was wOBA .325 wRC+108 at the All Star Break, but with an xwOBA of .291, guess where he finished? (wOBA .293). Brooks Lee will finish this season well below average in production. He didn't change, he just had good luck. Brooks Lee swings soft, hits the ball soft, is aggressive chasing pitches outside the zone, and doesn't take walks. He's not Luis Arraez because Lee doesn't hit line drives and he strikes out 3x more often.

This team is not close to a World Series competitive. It's not a .500 team. It's a sub-.500 team that only has a snowballs chance at making the playoffs because they play in the most embarrassing division in the history of professional sports. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Brooks Lee is the same guy he was last year and the year before. Exactly the same player. Just like Javier Baez last year was wOBA .325 wRC+108 at the All Star Break, but with an xwOBA of .291, guess where he finished? (wOBA .293). Brooks Lee will finish this season well below average in production. He didn't change, he just had good luck. Brooks Lee swings soft, hits the ball soft, is aggressive chasing pitches outside the zone, and doesn't take walks. He's not Luis Arraez because Lee doesn't hit line drives and he strikes out 3x more often.

This team is not close to a World Series competitive. It's not a .500 team. It's a sub-.500 team that only has a snowballs chance at making the playoffs because they play in the most embarrassing division in the history of professional sports. 

Most embarrassing, right behind the A.L. West.

I can’t stand watching Lee for all the reasons you site - his BA with RISP is the only reason I give him the slightest respect. He may slide?He started out like an obvious AAA demotion and since has been slightly above average as a rule …….. guessing, 12-13 weeks.

Take a look at the OPS+ for The Guardians roster and tell me The Twins have no chance.

There’s a difference between World Series competitive v. being competitive for “a run in the A.L.”.

My hope is they swallow the risk on Jeffers and trade Caratini w/prospect(s) for a reliever.

I’d try hard to put a package together to Giants for Arraez. Adding him at 2B along with a reliever, I think they have a shot to make playoffs & advance.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What players would San Diego receive from Minnesota to accept moving Morejon and Miller? Be realistic.

Realistically Prieller hasn’t gone for prospects so some sort of deal with Prielipp, Morris, Keaschall, Bradley being involved. Being that they both make 4 million, they might have to take Larnach 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, clone52 said:

Fair on those prospects, but Weaver is performing way better than Helsley, so you probably still are talking about a pair like Quick and Winokur.

Getting goodman is a pipe dream, but the package I put together could get close.
Keaschall was a top tier prospect, but now has MLB experience.  Is he a superstar?  No.  But he has a floor and probably a pretty high ceiling.  Was great last year and this year is up and down, but he still has a WAR of 1.0 and an OPS+ of 97.  So even with a roller coaster year, he's league average or slightly better, only 512 ABs into his career.
Tait has slipped a bit, but has been Top 50 prospect and has been on fire lately.
Zebby was never Top 100, just outside I think.  Overall not doing great, but seems to have a floor of a 4 or 5 in the rotation.  Slight improvement this year, so there is room for growth.  4 more years of team control after this year.
Raya is the change of scenary guy.  Former top prospect who's stock has fallen.

Along with my other trades, there are several options of a Hunter Goodman trade I would think long and hard about and maybe pull the trigger.
Tait, Prielipp, Rodriguez, Raya
Tait, Quick, Rodriguez, Raya
Looking at the Rox catching depth, may need to include Alex Jackson in any trade.

The is a big reason I think this might work for the Twins.  Tait is far more valuable to the Rockies than he is the Twins.  After Goodman, they have a nobody on the 40 man and two guy in AAA in the 20s of their organizational rankings.  They drafted 2 college catchers pretty high.  Heck, maybe they'd be interested in Diaw even.  Or any of our AA catchers.
I think we feel like Zebby is a back end rotation guy.  Rockies might see more.  Plus, can back fill with a guy like Robby Ray and get a couple of Zebby 2.0 floor guys from Tampa for Jeffers/Larnach.
I'm okay dangling Keaschall.  He may be a great player, but his defensive location is interesting.  Twins have organizational OF depth.  I hope Culpepper/Houston fill the middle infield.  I don't love the idea of Keaschall as a primary 1B or DH long term.  If using him help gets Goodman, its worth it.

Obviously the Rockies probably start by saying "Jenkins, Prielipp, Tait and Houston".  Twins aren't going to do that, obviously, but something may get worked out.

The point was they got one decent prospect for Helsley. I didn’t say anything about Weaver because the Twins don’t take on 11 million dollar relievers, they trade them 

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Currently, the Twins are at 17-8 v. the other 4 current Wildcard Team. (Yankees - Guards - Astros - Red Sox) 

Texas - Chicago - Tampa are the projected Division Winners.

If a Team that’s “competitive” doesn’t see that group of 7 Teams as an opportunity to get through more than one round, not sure when….. right??? ….  Seriously don’t know when they would have a more open path?

 

This realization is what caused me to come around to adding, rather than selling this trade deadline.  The Twins aren't particularly good, and have suffered injuries to key players they were counting on.  They could well lose 85 games or more if things go wrong.  But, the AL is historically bad this year.  The best four teams in MLB are pretty clearly the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, and Cubs in whatever order you want to rank them. 

Tampa is good, but not dominant.  The Yankees are very talented but very, very injured.  Everyone else in the AL has flawed rosters, just like the Twins.  It's not at all inconceivable that the Twins sneak into the playoffs with 84 or so wins.   If they get there, nobody particularly scares me for the first round.  The AL path will be wide open for some mediocre team.  Somebody has to advance.

So yes, add to the pitching staff.  This article was a good list of possibilities.  Trade a low level prospect for one of them.  Take on salary if you need to. The Twins may have to survive on the hitters they have unless a good deal falls into their lap, or the front office deems one of the AAA prospects ready to step up.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Currently, the Twins are at 17-8 v. the other 4 current Wildcard Team. (Yankees - Guards - Astros - Red Sox) 

Unfortunately they are also 12-21 in inter-league play, tied for the worst in the AL with LAA, and 15-19 against LHP, with only HOU at 13-16, also having a losing record against LHP among  AL play-off contenders.

Unfortunately the team has 15 inter-league games remaining, including 6 against division leaders ATL & MIL, 6 against play-off hopefuls PHI & SDP, and 3 against SFG, and it seems they always run into at least one LHP every series. 

If they can figure out how to beat the NL and LHP (and as the joke would continue, LHP NL teams), I would like their chances a lot more.