The Twins Need to Make Room for Walker Jenkins Before the Trade Deadline

[DocBauer]

I think Jenkins, as a supee talented prospect at 21yo is doing very well at AAA currently. And I can't wait to see him with the Twins. There are no real holes in his game. The only real "deficit" is that he's still developing his power. It's there, he just hasn't learned to tap in to it yet.

A couple days ago...can't recall if it was the Futures Game or not....he hit a laser shot opposite field double down the LF line. It was a thing of beauty, and almost as pretty as a HR, but impressive as it shows what he's capable of doing.

I think he's got 30HR potential. But that might be a 2-3 years down the road. But if he hits 35-40 DBLs and only 25HR, that can make him just as dangerous of a hitter. Especially considering he should be a good AVG and OB% hitter.

But I have zero problem letting him "cook" a little more at St Paul until the deadline at least. Long term, it only helps his development, and does nothing to slow his career. His current hot streak is great. But I don't want him promoted just because of that. I still want to see him barrel up balls a little better with a decent launch angle. He learns to do that, the doubles and homers are going to naturally come.

Right NOW Larnach and Bell are doing very well in their roles. But we still don't know if they're going to be around in 2 1/2 weeks. The 4 straight losses to the Cubs and Guardians are putting a real damper on the idea of being buyers at the deadline. But there's still games to be played between now and the deadline. And a couple more weeks at AAA aren't going to hurt Jenkins in the least. Nor is he guaranteed to actually help the Twins immediately win. The offense hasn't been the problem, at least against RHP.

So NO, Jenkins doesn't have to be promoted immediately. But I DO believe if the Twins decide to do sell Jeffers for a decent haul, and Larnach, and Bell for whatever they can get, I'd absolutely love to see Jenkins get his debut and get his feet wet for 2027. And Roden can finally get a real shot at playing time as well. By then, K-Pepper might/should be ready for SS, letting Kreidler be the Super Utility guy. Maybe Gonzalez gets a shot as well? He's been doing pretty well the last couple of months despite season numbers being dragged down to his poor start.

And let's not forget Rodriguez might/should be ready about mid August. And even if he is granted a 4th option year due to injury, he sure could use an opportunity to get his feet wet at the ML level as well.

Sands should be back very soon. It sounds like Raya's injury was actually very minor, so he should be back soon. Does CJ get a shot come August? Even if the Twins don't end up buyers, but limited sellers instead, there's still a LOT to play for! For the TEAM, there is reaching and exceeding .500 with a POSSIBLE...but remote...possibility of still sneaking in to the playoffs with a sudden 2 month run the way the Tigers did recently. PLUS, there is playing for PRIDE to finish the season strong. PLUS, there is building for 2027 as a TEAM and organization as a whole.

Playoffs or not, how about talented prospects coming up and building a bridge for 2027 and making life really difficult for every team they face that also has playoff plans? I'm reminded of Indians manager commenting in Major League where he stated he'd like to give prognosticors a "great big sh*t burger to eat".

We still don't know if the Twins are limited sellers, or limited buyers. But NO, to Jenkins immediately. But YES to seeing him and others come August 4th and beyond. No matter what, there ARE things to still play for.

[TNtwins85]

21 hours ago, Patzky said:

5) Waiting for villains to die is bad karma and never works.

Yes. Very bad karma. Also, the post assumes that it’s just Scott Boras doing all this by himself like he’s handling 100’s of players from his office in the strip mall in between the nail salon and the sandwich shop.  That it isn’t a giant conglomeration of representatives all working with the same philosophy that continues long after Scott Boras steps away.

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

There's a case to be made for fans in smaller markets that Boras is a villain, because 1) his only concern is maximizing the dollar value for his clients, 2) he has a known preference for targeting the bigger markets for his players because of #1, 3) he uses his influence with his clients to try and influence how the CBA's are structured, which have arguably tilted towards the bigger markets and star players vs a more balanced structure. In a Scott Boras world, not only is there never a salary cap, but there's no luxury tax and no revenue sharing from it either. His preferences are always so that a team like the Mets or the Dodgers will set new records for FA signings.

While I have no interest in protecting owner's pockets, and I always prefer to see more revenue going to players vs owners...I also would like to see a system in baseball where teams like the Twins are able to be more competitive in the FA market, be able to re-sign homegrown players to competitive contracts without nuking the rest of the roster, etc. Boras is not helpful to that goal, IMHO. He doesn't want the Twins signing Walker Jenkins to a market-rate contract; he wants Walker Jenkins' next contract to re-set the market.

More teams having more money to spend means more of his guys get more of that money. I would imagine he’s in favor of no cap. A floor, and teams being forced to spend that money on free agents. He wants what’s best for his players so that 5% he gets is more regardless of team or market.

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Another positive in bringing up Jenkins - it would make trading Larnach more palatable.  I previously thought if the FO wanted to stay competitive, they could only afford to trade one of Larnach or Jeffers.  Our offense has too many holes to trade both.  Jeffers should be traded(unless Twins can resign him which at this point is a non-starter), but with Jenkins slotted in LF or RF, Jenkins and Roden could fill in well at the corners.  Of course, trading makes sense only if the Twins obtained near major league prospects.

Why is re-signing Jeffers a non starter?  Yes, you have a couple of future guys in the system.  One of whom has yet to take a professional swing.  Both are at least a couple years away.  Trade Jeffers and you're left with two, at best, average catchers.  Sign Jeffers to a three year deal.  Will cost somewhere between $11-$15 million per year.  Not excessive.  Tom talks about doing things differently, here' his chance.  Move Larnach to make room for the young studs.  Make it happen.

[HrbieFan]

21 hours ago, jimmyc said:

They will appropriately leave him off the 40-man roster.  Anyone on the 40-man will be unable to play in the minors during the impending MLB strike next spring.  More than many others, he needs to play baseball.

We know Boras won't allow an extension, unless it is an overpay. So I am not bringing him up with the upcoming lockout. Jenkins needs to add more strength and stay healthy for longer than 20 games at a time. 

[mluebker]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Jenkins undeniably has more upside potential than Roden. I think he needs to spend more time working to realize that upside in AAA.

It would be nice if the Twins would let a guy develop a little longer and then be able stay when he finally gets here, instead of rushing him onto the roster, expect him to rescue a team perpetually struggling with mediocrity, then bouncing him back to St. Paul when he doesn’t immediately live up to expectations.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, mluebker said:

It would be nice if the Twins would let a guy develop a little longer and then be able stay when he finally gets here, instead of rushing him onto the roster, expect him to rescue a team perpetually struggling with mediocrity, then bouncing him back to St. Paul when he doesn’t immediately live up to expectations.

The twins are not known for rushing players. Cleveland has seven rookies.... The twins?

[saviking]

I don't expect the Twins to bring Jenkins up until September. They are more worried about his controllable years as they should be. 

[bean5302]

Walker Jenkins pretty much = Austin Martin with a little more pop, but endless injury woes from a stat sheet standpoint. He projects as below average at the plate in MLB with passable defense in CF because he supposedly has better instincts, but best suited to right field.

[bean5302]

I want to make it clear. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins couldn't turn into an absolute stud. I'm saying there's no reason to expect he's actually ready to be an every day contributor to a MLB team "today" based on the production he's shown compared to other players in the same league he plays in. In the International League, he's better than an average AAA hitter. He's not raking. He's not dominating. He's not in the top quartile of hitters there. He's wRC+ 118, ranked 80th of 286 players with 100+ PA, which is 72nd percentile.
top 5% = 145+ (these guys are dominating)
top 10% = 134+ (production says these guys are ready, advanced metrics might disagree)
Sabato = 133
Fedko = 129
Kreidler = 128
Wallner = 127
top 20% = 124+ (these guys are probably ready)
Culpepper = 122
Ross = 121
Jenkins = 118
top 30% = 115+ (these guys are "better than average" minor league hitters)
top 40% = 109+ (pedestrian, little case for being MLB contributors at the plate)
median = 103 

The Twins don't really have a place for him to play right now. He needs to be playing every day, which I think is absolutely critical to a player without years of MLB experience who can just get back into form quickly. My honest expectation of Jenkins' 95% ceiling is peak Max Kepler a24-a29. wRC+ 105ish, elite defense in right field, 2.5-3.0 WAR. I don't see anything in his performance up to now which suggests his ceiling is higher, that's all optimism.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I want to make it clear. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins couldn't turn into an absolute stud. I'm saying there's no reason to expect he's actually ready to be an every day contributor to a MLB team "today" based on the production he's shown compared to other players in the same league he plays in. In the International League, he's better than an average AAA hitter. He's not raking. He's not dominating. He's not in the top quartile of hitters there. He's wRC+ 118, ranked 80th of 286 players with 100+ PA, which is 72nd percentile.
top 5% = 145+ (these guys are dominating)
top 10% = 134+ (production says these guys are ready, advanced metrics might disagree)
Sabato = 133
Fedko = 129
Kreidler = 128
Wallner = 127
top 20% = 124+ (these guys are probably ready)
Culpepper = 122
Ross = 121
Jenkins = 118
top 30% = 115+ (these guys are "better than average" minor league hitters)
top 40% = 109+ (pedestrian, little case for being MLB contributors at the plate)
median = 103 

The Twins don't really have a place for him to play right now. He needs to be playing every day, which I think is absolutely critical to a player without years of MLB experience who can just get back into form quickly. My honest expectation of Jenkins' 95% ceiling is peak Max Kepler a24-a29. wRC+ 105ish, elite defense in right field, 2.5-3.0 WAR. I don't see anything in his performance up to now which suggests his ceiling is higher, that's all optimism.

Thank you for the detailed explanation of why this article is just wrong. I get tired of seeing this website ready to promote every prospect after they have a hot week.