Taking Stock of the AL Central: Can Chicago Keep This Up? Do the Tigers Still Have Time?

[Tom Froemming]

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

With the Twins hanging tough in the AL Central, let’s take a look at the rest of the competition in the division. What are we up against?

Chicago White Sox
Currently: Holding onto a slim lead in the division.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 13th 
How they got here: Uh … divine intervention via the new Pope? 
Hurdle they need to clear: Winning on the road.

Do they have the juice? Teams coming out of nowhere is a regular occurrence in the AL Central. Chicago has a common feature those surprise clubs typically have: Youth. It’s a dangerous thing when a young team comes together and starts to believe. Can that momentum carry them through these next 70 or so games?

I’m sure White Sox fans are tired of hearing this, but I don’t think so.

There are a number of things to point to, but what stands out to me is their home and road splits. This might be low-hanging fruit analysis, but I do think it’s as simple as this: if you can’t win on the road, you’re not going to last.

The White Sox are 19-28 on the road. There have been division champs that posted losing road records, but they’re always within a game or two of .500. Last season, the Blue Jays (40-41) and Mariners (39-42) did it. Other recent examples are the 2023 Twins (40-41), 2022 Cardinals (40-41) and 2021 White Sox (40-41). Chicago would have to get hot on the road from here to reach even that modest level.

Cleveland Guardians
Currently: Right on Chicago’s heels.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 17th
How they got here: As always, Cleveland devil magic.
Hurdle they need to clear: As always, scoring runs.

Alright, so maybe there’s more to them than just the patented devil magic. The pitching staff and defense are both top-10 units. Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo are the most recent of the solid starting pitchers Cleveland seems to be able to clone at will. 

José Ramírez is recovering from a broken hamate bone—the same injury Ryan Jeffers is working his way back from. Cleveland has gone 8-11 without their star and 13-17 over their last 30 games. Rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana are picking up the slack, and Brayan Rocchio is breaking out, but this lineup is still dreadful. The Guardians rank near the bottom in virtually every hitting metric, including 29th in OPS and 27th in wOBA. 

The scariest thing about this team is ghosts of the past. I’ll probably always tense up anytime the Twins play them. Speaking of which, these teams start a series tonight, and the Twins play seven of their 22 games between now and the trade deadline against Cleveland. Oh yay.

Detroit Tigers
Currently: Among the most disappointing teams in baseball.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 10th
How they got here: Injuries, but their lineup has also faded and their defense has been poor.
Hurdle they need to clear: Time. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

These Tigers aren’t dead yet. Their 40-50 record is ugly, but we’ve seen this movie before. In fact, it was in theaters just two seasons ago. Back in 2024, Detroit was 42-48 through this point in the season. They caught fire, managed to win 86 games, and snuck into the postseason. It could happen again.

Their fate may come down to one player: Tarik Skubal. Is he going to remain a Tiger? He’s a pending free agent, and Detroit’s front office will be able to ask for the world in return for him. Detroit’s rotation has been solid even without Skubal for a good chunk of the season, so perhaps removing the back-to-back Cy Young winner wouldn’t be a finishing blow. Would they still have the best rotation in the division without him? It’s at least up for debate, though they’d likely sell off additional pieces if they were to trade Skubal.

The Tigers also have a star rookie and a couple of the most underrated players in baseball. Kevin McGonigle has been incredible. He’s putting together an MVP-caliber season, and should easily capture the Rookie of the Year. Riley Greene continues to be overlooked among middle-of-the-order bats, and Dillon Dingler has grown from being just a guy whose name makes you giggle to the best catcher in baseball.

The strangest thing about the Tigers is that they’re being tamed by teams they should maim. Detroit has the worst record in baseball against teams with a .500 record or worse at 16-29, while posting a 24-21 record against teams with a .500 record or better. Huh?

This looked like the year they were primed to go for it, but perhaps this is really who they are, and 2026 was just not meant to be. I still wouldn’t count them out.

Kansas City Royals
Currently: In the basement and among the worst records in the league.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 28th
How they got here: They’ve also dealt with unfortunate injuries, and their pitching is a mess.
Hurdle they need to clear: They’re actually facing more of an unscalable mountain than a hurdle.

Not much to say about KC. It’s been a cursed season for them. It happens.

So, how do you see the division shaping out? The looming August 3 trade deadline has the potential to greatly influence this race, but should the Twins be among the buyers? Or is the competition thick enough that they should set their sights on 2027?

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[Brandon]

They should trade for a reliever now.  THey can still sell at the deadline if they fall far enough back.  not sure they will after winning 4 of 6 in the last 2 series.  Anything can happen and Buxton being on the DL isnt helping.

[Cris E]

Consider the notion that there are three types of trade candidates: top shelf, prospects, and everyone else.  How you view the current roster and season will dictate how you manage those three groups. 

I think the AL Central is a dumpster fire that could be won by just about anyone, I think we have more middling vets than we need, we have more kids to evaluate than spots, and I think some of those vets are not crucial to winning. I think a little development among the youth could make huge gains in the bullpen by displacing the worst of the innings being thrown out there, and i think we've finally started taking strides towards improving our defense.   

So right now, as in before bedtime tonight, I start calling to move some middling vets.  Larnach is useful to many teams. Clemens has been good for us but could also be for someone else. Any of our utility guys should be marked down. Ober, Rogers, most of our second shelf pitchers in fact, should be on the block. In return we need pitching for the short term and talent for the longer term.

Then promote kids and see how things shake out in the next three weeks. If we are still in it we listen to offers or even fill a hole or two.  If we continue to sit in the mud we sell more. Leave it in the players' hands. Ownership screwed them last year, but a judicious trimming with several weeks to make their case could be good motivation.

[Dman]

Chicago is a young team and we've seen those types of teams fall off later in the season.  Still I think that with the AL so weak they might be able to pull it off.  If they get a little deadline help that could change things for them as well. despite your incredible stat I still think they can beat the odds and be a playoff team.

Cleveland pitching has carried them to many division titles.   I'd say the smart money is on them to win the division.  They have been beatable without their big bat and it will be interesting to see how they line up against the Twins for those 7 games as that will likely make or break the Twins season.

I just don't think Detroit has the pitching to go on that run you speak of.  If they trade Skubal it feels like it's over for them.  It's still a potent lineup when they are on and we've seen what timely hitting can do with this Twins team.  Never say never given their comeback ways, but if they are sellers I don't see it.

KC is generally a tough team.  Always in it.  Very pesky, but they have lost their mojo this year.  Not enough offense and the pitching hasn't been great either. They might challenge for worst record in baseball if they sell at the deadline.

If the Twins can pull to .500 or close to it.  I still like their odds at a playoff spot if they don't sell off Joe Ryan.  I don't know if this offense can keep it up and if the pen can get better, but if they can, there's no reason they can't find their way to a wild card spot.  July is going to be big and August will be a real tough part of their schedule with Seattle, Brewers, Phillies, Chicago, and Atlanta on the schedule.  Not sure I see them getting through that and staying around .500, but we'll see.

[weitz41]

The central is set to have another team come out of nowhere and win the division. Could it be the Twins? could it be the Tigers? The Sox and Guardians will be there at the end. The Royals just can't seem to find enough offense to go on a run this season. We're talking like 85 wins will take it, maybe less. It's ugly, no fan base for a central team is thinking we could win the WS. But everyone's record at the start of the playoff's is 0-0.

[mikelink45]

sorry - I am still laughing - the white sox can't keep this up (why) the Twins can surge to the top (why?) and Detroit can't make a run - WHY??????????? and of course the Guardians will faulter down the stretch because???????????

[ashbury]

32 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

sorry - I am still laughing - the white sox can't keep this up (why) the Twins can surge to the top (why?) and Detroit can't make a run - WHY??????????? and of course the Guardians will faulter down the stretch because???????????

Because reasons.  Lots of them.  Too many to count.

[Colbeh]

38 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

sorry - I am still laughing - the white sox can't keep this up (why) the Twins can surge to the top (why?) and Detroit can't make a run - WHY??????????? and of course the Guardians will faulter down the stretch because???????????

Sox have a very young and inexperienced roster which can cause alot of volatility at any moment. Davis Martin and Miguel Vargas we're two of the best players in baseball for a decent chunk of the early season and have since cooled off. Scary offense but that pitching staff is w/e

Twins im biased but if they did a tricky buy/sell at the deadline and got back a good rental relief arm, a mid tier controllable SP and maybe a youngish struggling starter (convert to pen). Revamp the bullpen and call up some of the young guns and theres a chance. Would have to keep Joe Ryan though.

Tigers yeah I wouldnt count them out. Their bullpen is Twins level but they got a few names who could pull it together. Depends on if they sell Skubal or not (Maybe we want them to hold?)

Guardians same as Tigers as far as not counting them out. Maybe their dark magic wears off or they buy a bat or two at the deadline and get an average offense with Jose back and they'd be tough to beat out.

At the end of the day anyone can take this division if they want it bad enough (besides the Royals)

[JADBP]

Here’s a weird thought:  what would you say if the Twins traded for….Skubal?  Of course, it depends on who they trade …but we have some extra pieces to move around (Larnach?  Wallner (uhhh choke, no wait,  LOL), and maybe a real player like Keaschall and a prospect?    Or what?  Can you imagine going into the playoffs facing Skubal, Ryan and Bradley?  Geeez how much difference just one player can make!  Wowza.  

[Tom Froemming]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

sorry - I am still laughing - the white sox can't keep this up (why) the Twins can surge to the top (why?) and Detroit can't make a run - WHY??????????? and of course the Guardians will faulter down the stretch because???????????

I wrote this thing but I must have a memory issue because I can’t remember writing any of this stuff you’re suggesting.

[wesnewy]

I’m a delusional optimist on the Twins, and this season has done nothing to help that this year, so yes… I do think these guys could take the division or even just a WC spot this year! Winning with the power of friendship OFC lol

[Brandon]

If Buxton comes back from injury soon, I think we have a chance.  We have offensive reinforcements at AAA if needed so our offense should only get better.  and Raya and possibly CJ Culpepper for the pen.  We still need to get two good relievers and not the cheap crap imitation ones.  Ober should be back so the rotation is atleast solid across the board.  The key as always is health and minimal injuries and overcoming the ones we get.

 

[Peter]

Have gut feeling twins will win division!!! If(hoping soon they get over.500 look out!!!) division is there for taking and I hate how the national media hates our team but nothing would be better then to win division which I think they will!!!

[Tom Froemming]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

They should trade for a reliever now. 

That's a good point. There's no reason they need to wait. There will be teams motivated to hold until closer to the deadline in the hope the market drives up values, but there has to be some team willing to make a move early (for the right price, of course).

12 hours ago, Cris E said:

I think the AL Central is a dumpster fire that could be won by just about anyone, I think we have more middling vets than we need, we have more kids to evaluate than spots, and I think some of those vets are not crucial to winning.

It's tricky. I think some of the kids will be better than the middling vets ... eventually. Maybe not out of the box, though. The vets are more bankable, even if they don't necessarily raise the ceiling of the team. I would prefer to see some of the prospects, it'd be a lot more fun, but it'd be a roll of the dice.

8 hours ago, JADBP said:

Here’s a weird thought:  what would you say if the Twins traded for….Skubal?  Of course, it depends on who they trade …but we have some extra pieces to move around (Larnach?  Wallner (uhhh choke, no wait,  LOL), and maybe a real player like Keaschall and a prospect?    Or what?  Can you imagine going into the playoffs facing Skubal, Ryan and Bradley?  Geeez how much difference just one player can make!  Wowza.  

I know he's just a rental, but Detroit is probably going to start off by asking for Jenkins or Culpepper. That's what I'd do if I were them.

12 hours ago, weitz41 said:

The central is set to have another team come out of nowhere and win the division. Could it be the Twins? could it be the Tigers? The Sox and Guardians will be there at the end. The Royals just can't seem to find enough offense to go on a run this season. We're talking like 85 wins will take it, maybe less. It's ugly, no fan base for a central team is thinking we could win the WS. But everyone's record at the start of the playoff's is 0-0.

I mean, nobody thought the 84-win 2023 Diamondbacks would go to the World Series. That was nuts. There are plenty of other examples, of course. There's not a single team in the AL that feels unbeatable, so I wouldn't be shocked if a Central team was league champs. They wouldn't be the favorites, but I wouldn't be shocked.

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

I wrote this thing but I must have a memory issue because I can’t remember writing any of this stuff you’re suggesting.

Maybe I should have written that I would not buy stock in any of this divisions teams.

[Andy MacPhail]

CWS are are doing somethings right like focusing on very promising young MLB-ready catchers & getting their young SPs' feet wet by pitching them in the BP, improving their MLB BP while keeping their pitchers healthy & rested, instead of wasting their bullets in AAA. This year, I thought they'd do well but I'm surprised by their success. IMO, they could use some veteran presence. They could falter but still think they could pull off the division title.

 Detroit will sell Skubal, they are out of it, so is KC. If finally, the Twins get a bona fide high-leverage RP, sooner the better; the Twins have a good chance of passing CLE & possibly CWS & make the postseason. After that, anything can happen.

[Riverbrian]

There is reason for optimism with the 2026 team. 

I am not afraid of youth.

The White Sox have 20 players on their current 26 man roster that are Pre-Arb. The Tigers have 12. 

The Royals also have 12

Cleveland also has 20

Our Twins currently have 19. 

I also clearly recall the incredible come back the Tigers made in 2024. They sold nearly every vet they had at the deadline because they were out of contention. Keeping only Javier Baez who they couldn't trade because he was well paid, injured and struggling. With a team that was made up of entirely pre-arb players they went on a run and made the playoffs. 

I'm am however... always afraid of bad performance no matter the experience level.

Our offense is doing great. It was perhaps my biggest concern entering the season. Right now they have the highest OPS and the most runs scored in the American League. 7th overall in MLB. The offense is doing fine but the depth on the infield has me a little concerned. 

On the mound... Our starting staff has been mid-pack... 8th overall in ERA in the American League. This is the definition of keeping you in ball games but not really winning any games.

The Bullpen has been dead last.

Teams need depth on the mound... we seem to have exhausted our starter depth fairly quickly and that is easy enough done in this time of pitching injuries. Going to need Ober back because the odds are low that all of the remaining 5 in the rotation is going to be available the entire season. So we are going to need a fast rising arm out of the minor leagues to raise up through the ranks quickly. Probably need to add a starter at the deadline. 

And then there is the bullpen... we will lose some to injuries from the bullpen arms we are currently utilizing and that will require the bullpen search for arms to more than just 1 or 2 arms. This search is going to be constant. Trades and waiver wire pickups to try and get from dead last to 20th ranked.       

The fortunate thing... All teams in the AL Central and Baseball for that matter are in the same boat. They all need depth and that depth will determine who wins this thing. 

[Brandon]

The Twins are 2 games out of leading the division and half game out of the Wild card and this is while playing a hard stretch of the schedule and they are 6-2 against the Astros, Yankees and Indians.  We need relievers.  I see Raya is now going on the DL.  We have CJ Culpepper left in AAA plus the new guy we just got from Detroit.  Who else is potentially available in AA or AAA to help the pitching?  We did just resign Bowman to a minor league deal.  Anyone else available?