MLB Insider: Twins “Look Increasingly Unlikely to Sell”

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

So the league is starved for catching and we might have three on the big league roster.  Why trade the best one.  The move is to trade the guy who is peaking right now and whose value may never be higher-Caratini.

Leaving you still an injury away from Khadim Diaw.

My point wasn't about the merits of any of the three catchers we have.  It was that your post was a non-sequitur where it came to Jeffers.

Also, that the front office failed in the off-season to identify a suitable 3rd string catcher who still had minor league options remaining.  Acquiring Alex Jackson represented insurance before they knew they would sign Caratini, but once that latter move happened, they needed to swing another trade somehow.  And so here we are now, with 3 catchers among 13 position players for the next several weeks unless a trade occurs well before the volume of deadline deals.  Not a smooth sequence of events for the FO.

[SteveLV]

Cruz at 36 y.o. even with a contract into 2027 doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  I would consider Chivilli, who is 23, and has an electric arm, with middling results so far in MLB.  Plus a prospect or 2 to be negotiated.

The Yankees would look at it as an opportunity to get Jeffers not only for this season, but to extend as well and shore up their weakest position.  Furthermore, if they give us a young RP they can always trade or promote for more bullpen help.

[dxpavelka]

On 7/10/2026 at 9:49 AM, Major League Ready said:

There are only 3 teams in the Twins generally range of revenue that have outperformed the norm.  Give us examples of all the players Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa have overpaid for.  I am anxious to see your list.  

 

is the goal to win the same number of championships those three teams have the last 75 years?

 

[dxpavelka]

On 7/10/2026 at 10:34 AM, ashbury said:

Leaving you still an injury away from Khadim Diaw.

My point wasn't about the merits of any of the three catchers we have.  It was that your post was a non-sequitur where it came to Jeffers.

Also, that the front office failed in the off-season to identify a suitable 3rd string catcher who still had minor league options remaining.  Acquiring Alex Jackson represented insurance before they knew they would sign Caratini, but once that latter move happened, they needed to swing another trade somehow.  And so here we are now, with 3 catchers among 13 position players for the next several weeks unless a trade occurs well before the volume of deadline deals.  Not a smooth sequence of events for the FO.

Not saying we HAVE to trade on just saying if we do i"d prefer it NOT be the best one.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 7/10/2026 at 10:34 AM, ashbury said:

Leaving you still an injury away from Khadim Diaw.

My point wasn't about the merits of any of the three catchers we have.  It was that your post was a non-sequitur where it came to Jeffers.

Also, that the front office failed in the off-season to identify a suitable 3rd string catcher who still had minor league options remaining.  Acquiring Alex Jackson represented insurance before they knew they would sign Caratini, but once that latter move happened, they needed to swing another trade somehow.  And so here we are now, with 3 catchers among 13 position players for the next several weeks unless a trade occurs well before the volume of deadline deals.  Not a smooth sequence of events for the FO.

Jackson was the intended backup until Caratini became available at a reasonable price. Yes great insurance and he has been an excellent backup.  Yes so we are slightly at a disadvantage for roster construction for 6 weeks.  Honestly this has worked about as well as it could have all things considered. 
 

I stand by that Jeffers doesn’t get traded. He is worth about $6 million worth of prospect value.  If he performs well the remainder of the year and turns down the qualifying offer- the Twins get a late round first. Say what you will this is also what Doogie says and say so on the draft podcast.  

[Riverbrian]

On 7/10/2026 at 7:06 AM, dxpavelka said:

So the league is starved for catching and we might have three on the big league roster.  Why trade the best one.  The move is to trade the guy who is peaking right now and whose value may never be higher-Caratini.

None of our catchers are peaking in regards to trade value. 

Jeffers is now a rental. 

Caratini has a contract with a higher dollar amount than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. 

Jackson will certainly not exceed the value of Jeffers or Caratini. 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

is the goal to win the same number of championships those three teams have the last 75 years?

 

Let's think about your logic here.  

Should we conclude the Twins are better managed because they had two WS wins 35 years ago?  Should we conclude the Twins operating practices are better than the Rays, Guardians, and Brewers because the Twins won the WS 35 years ago?

One team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS in the past 20 years.  Should we conclude the model to follow is KC who by the way has the lowest win percentage in the entire league over the past 20 years.

The only other teams in the bottom half or revenue to win the WS this century are the White Sox and Marlins.  Which organization should we model ourselves after the Royals, White Sox, or Marlins?   The "Championship" argument is a snappy comeback that requires us to ignore any probative thought. 

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

None of our catchers are peaking in regards to trade value. 

Jeffers is now a rental. 

Caratini has a contract with a higher dollar amount than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. 

Jackson will certainly not exceed the value of Jeffers or Caratini. 

 

 

Eh.  Jeffers is a rental, true. But he's also been one of the top offensive catchers for several years now and the ones ahead of him just won't be available.  Teams don't let guys like that get away. 

Caratini (and to a much lesser extent Jackson) are playing well and might make more today than they're signed for.  VC's recent step up while Jeffers was away (plus the scarcity of hitting catchers) would probably get him several offers for more than what the Twins signed him for.

Jackson has proven that he's not a complete zero at the plate and a half step above the usual freely available waiver wire suspects.  He doesn't need to be better than the others to be valuable or coveted by other teams. 

I guess the TL;DR summary is that all are worth more now than they were in March.

 

[strumdatjag]

On 7/10/2026 at 10:15 AM, Danchat said:

I was about the post the exact same thing, the Yankees aren't going to rob Peter to pay Paul, especially not for two of their better relievers in exchange for 2 months of control of Jeffers.

Above, someone has already logically suggested a three team trade - Jeffers to the overpaying contender desperate for a catcher, prospects to team 3 (the Angels, Rockies, Giants …) and a top reliever and good pitching prospect to the Twins. 

I don’t like trading for relievers (remember Matt Capps) but it’s a necessity now.  
Be a buyer and a seller to rebalance the roster for the playoff run.  

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Eh.  Jeffers is a rental, true. But he's also been one of the top offensive catchers for several years now and the ones ahead of him just won't be available.  Teams don't let guys like that get away. 

Caratini (and to a much lesser extent Jackson) are playing well and might make more today than they're signed for.  VC's recent step up while Jeffers was away (plus the scarcity of hitting catchers) would probably get him several offers for more than what the Twins signed him for.

Jackson has proven that he's not a complete zero at the plate and a half step above the usual freely available waiver wire suspects.  He doesn't need to be better than the others to be valuable or coveted by other teams. 

I guess the TL;DR summary is that all are worth more now than they were in March.

 

I could be wrong but I don't see increased or even peak value. 

Jeffers will be available to the acquiring team for two months. I'm sure the Yankees would love to acquire him but his value logically would be much higher if the acquiring team had him for a full year instead of two months. No doubt that Jeffers has been hitting fantastically and he may fetch a decent prospect but Jeffers has always been an upper level hitting catcher. A full year vs two months. I don't see increased or peak value. 

The closest comp I can find for a catcher rental was our old friend Christian Vazquez back when he actually hit the ball... when he was traded from the Red Sox to the Astros as a two month rental. The Red Sox did great in that trade because of the performance of Wilyer Abreu but that wasn't predicted by anyone because Wilyer and Enmanual Valdez were the 30th and 29th ranked prospects in the Astros system. 

I hope no one is expecting a major league ready reliever in return. The teams that need Jeffers is also going to need their relievers. It's a prospect deal most likely and the Twins are currently buyers not sellers. 

Caratini is actually statistically worse than he has been the past two seasons. Lower BA... Lower Slug but he does have time to make that up. However... the Twins already out bid all of the other teams for his services. Unless we throw in money... I don't see peak value with Caratini. Besides... the Twins will need catchers next year. Caratini is signed... the Twins shouldn't move him. 

I'll concede that Jackson may be peak value. They are obviously reluctant to try and get him through waivers but... I'm not sure that Jackson at peak value provides a return. 

I think in the end... Jeffers needs to be traded for prospects to replace the prospects that we will be trading for relievers. 

[Cris E]

I would also mention that any discussion of trading Jeffers start with the Rays instead of the Yankees. They have more decent relief hands under the age of 30-whatever and their prospects are better than NYY.

[amjgt]

I'm not going to get into my own speculation about a qualifying offer to Jeffers, but all of this really comes down to what the front office thinks they are going to do.

If they think there's a strong possibility that they make Jeffers a QO, then they should be willing (trying?) to trade Caratini. Potentially paying Jeffers 23M hurts a bit less if you're not also paying Caratini 7M. Rather than Caratini being your 2027 bridge, it's Jeffers. I'm not saying Caratini has some big positive value with his contract, but for a team that's in a bad way at the catcher spot in 2026, his 2027 salary (and 2028 buyout) isn't going to sink things.

If they don't think they are going to make Jeffers a QO, then they should be willing to trade him. 

You want to come away from the deadline with:
a) two catchers on your 26 man roster
b) a clear idea of what your catchers might look like in 2027.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

Eh.  Jeffers is a rental, true. But he's also been one of the top offensive catchers for several years now and the ones ahead of him just won't be available.  Teams don't let guys like that get away. 

Caratini (and to a much lesser extent Jackson) are playing well and might make more today than they're signed for.  VC's recent step up while Jeffers was away (plus the scarcity of hitting catchers) would probably get him several offers for more than what the Twins signed him for.

Jackson has proven that he's not a complete zero at the plate and a half step above the usual freely available waiver wire suspects.  He doesn't need to be better than the others to be valuable or coveted by other teams. 

I guess the TL;DR summary is that all are worth more now than they were in March.

 

No way that three months of a recently injured Jeffers is worth more now than in March. I really think Twins fans are over-estimating his trade value. Every team in the league is smart enough not to trust an in-season hamate bone injury. Every team doctor is going to remind the GM that players do not regain full grip strength until the following season.

Maybe you can get something like Henry Mendez in the Harrison Bader deal last year, but I don't think anyone should be surprised if it's closer to the underwhelming Willi Castro deal.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Cris E said:

I would also mention that any discussion of trading Jeffers start with the Rays instead of the Yankees. They have more decent relief hands under the age of 30-whatever and their prospects are better than NYY.

I'm not trading for Rays relievers. For the last decade, those relievers haven't tended to be good pitchers, the Rays have just figured out the best way to use them. I'd trust Joe Blow off of the waiver wire just as much as I'd trust a reliever on a contending team they're willing to trade.

[jaimedude]

Extensions for Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers with Twins would be ideal. 

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

None of our catchers are peaking in regards to trade value. 

Jeffers is now a rental. 

Caratini has a contract with a higher dollar amount than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. 

Jackson will certainly not exceed the value of Jeffers or Caratini. 

 

 

Trading Jeffers makes perfect sense.  IF Tait or Lackey is ready to be the everyday catcher.  If you hope to contend, this year or at any point in the next three years it doesn't.  Sign the man.  

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Let's think about your logic here.  

Should we conclude the Twins are better managed because they had two WS wins 35 years ago?  Should we conclude the Twins operating practices are better than the Rays, Guardians, and Brewers because the Twins won the WS 35 years ago?

One team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS in the past 20 years.  Should we conclude the model to follow is KC who by the way has the lowest win percentage in the entire league over the past 20 years.

The only other teams in the bottom half or revenue to win the WS this century are the White Sox and Marlins.  Which organization should we model ourselves after the Royals, White Sox, or Marlins?   The "Championship" argument is a snappy comeback that requires us to ignore any probative thought. 

We should chart our own path.  Following that of three organizations that haven't won titles in 75 years seems fruitless.  Don't tell me we should do ANYTHING just because somebody else did it. Our path should be something different than the one that has lead us to 35 years without a World Series.  Retaining our best players seems like a good way to start.

[tony&rodney]

Trading Jeffers makes sense if an offer of a decent player is put forth. I doubt the Rays give us Brody Hopkins but perhaps they might if the Twins add Trevor Larnach. Maybe the Yankees send Elmer Rodriguez. There are players the Twins could trade from their 26 person roster and improve the team potentially. Is that selling?

Conversely the Twins could acquire players using their own prospects. While it would be a surprise if either of Kaelen Culpepper or Walker Jenkins were to be traded, there are others the Twins could trade if the return made the club more competitive/stronger. There will be opportunities. 

Much like last year, the Twins can chart their course over the next 16 games. The results to August 2 combined with how other teams play could result in a flurry of moves, selling and buying.

[amjgt]

Brody Hopkins seems like a reasonable ask for a guy like Jeffers (Fringe top 100 guy, putting up so so numbers at AAA).

Normally I'd say TB doesn't seem like a team that would trade young controllable pitching for a rental, but there are lots of Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan comparables here.