Ranking Twins Players Whose Value Has Dropped the Most in 2026

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Player value can change quickly in baseball. A strong season can elevate a prospect or veteran into a cornerstone asset, while injuries and prolonged struggles can rapidly alter a player's standing within an organization.

Coming into 2026, the Twins believed they had a roster capable of competing in the American League Central. Several players were viewed as foundational pieces for both the present and future, even if some of the prospect luster had worn away. However, the first few months of the season have significantly changed the outlook for some of those players.

Here are the five Twins whose value has fallen the most since Opening Day.

5. Luke Keaschall

TD Pre-Season Asset Rank: 2

Few players generated more excitement entering the season than Luke Keaschall. After bursting onto the scene during a 49-game rookie campaign, he looked like a future fixture near the top of Minnesota's lineup. Keaschall posted a 129 OPS+ in 2025 while going 14-for-17 on stolen-base attempts, showing the blend of contact skills, on-base ability, and athleticism that made him one of the organization's most valuable assets. Twins Daily ranked him as the club's second-most valuable asset behind only Walker Jenkins.

The 2026 season started about as poorly as possible. Keaschall carried a .542 OPS through the season's first month and struggled to make consistent hard contact. To his credit, he began showing signs of life in June, posting a .790 OPS while continuing to provide value on the bases.

Even with the recent improvement, questions have emerged. Keaschall leads the Twins with 10 stolen bases and posted an on-base percentage of nearly 40% during May, but power production has been almost nonexistent. He has just 12 extra-base hits in 227 at-bats, limiting his offensive impact.

Defensively, the results haven't helped his case either. He owns a -2 Fielding Run Value and -3 Outs Above Average at second base. The long-term outlook remains positive, but his value is no longer at the near-untouchable level it occupied entering the season.

4. Pablo López

TD Pre-Season Asset Rank: 4

The biggest concern surrounding Pablo López entering 2026 was health. Despite being limited to just 14 starts in 2025 because of a right hamstring strain, a right teres major strain, and a right forearm strain, López remained dominant when healthy. He posted a 2.74 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP, giving Minnesota every reason to believe he could once again anchor the rotation.

Instead, disaster struck before the season ever got underway. López suffered a season-ending elbow injury during spring training and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He never threw a pitch during the regular season and is not expected back until early 2027.

The injury dramatically altered his value. Not only did the Twins lose one of their best pitchers, but any possibility of a deadline trade vanished. Minnesota now faces uncertainty about which López version will return following surgery and how his contract situation could be affected by upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.

For a player viewed as one of the organization's most valuable assets entering the year, the drop has been substantial.

3. Royce Lewis

TD Pre-Season Asset Rank: 13

The optimism surrounding Royce Lewis this spring felt different than in previous years. New manager Derek Shelton made Lewis a priority shortly after being hired, and the former No. 1 overall pick spent the offseason working with a new swing coach in hopes of rediscovering the offensive form that once made him one of baseball's brightest young stars.

The Twins believed there was still plenty of upside remaining. Instead, Lewis continued a troubling trend that has stretched back nearly two years. Before being demoted to Triple-A St. Paul, Lewis hit just .163/.261/.279 with a 54 wRC+. The struggles were not simply the result of a slow start. Since August of 2024, he has produced a .213/.268/.336 slash line with a 67 wRC+ across 181 major-league games.

The Twins finally made the difficult decision to send him to Triple-A, where he immediately reminded everyone of his talent. Lewis crushed Triple-A pitching, hitting .340 with eight home runs in just 13 games.

That performance earned him another opportunity in Minnesota, but his long-term value is no longer built on potential alone. The final months of 2026 may determine whether Lewis can still be viewed as a cornerstone piece or if his future role becomes much less certain.

2. Matt Wallner

TD Pre-Season Asset Rank: 12

Matt Wallner entered the season with plenty to prove, but there was also reason for optimism.

Although he posted a 111 OPS+ in 2025, it represented a noticeable step backward from the production he delivered in 2023 and 2024. Even so, many believed Wallner could recapture the form that allowed him to average 2.2 rWAR during those two seasons.

Instead, his performance deteriorated even further. Wallner was one of the least productive players in baseball during the season's opening weeks, producing a 53 OPS+ and accumulating -1.3 rWAR in just 34 games. The struggles became severe enough that the Twins followed the same path they used with Lewis, sending him to Triple-A to reset.

The early returns in St. Paul have been encouraging. Wallner owns a .886 OPS with six home runs and six doubles in 22 games. However, the larger trend remains concerning.

Wallner has always been a streaky hitter whose power comes at a high cost, with a high swing-and-miss rate. The issue is that the overall production has now declined for two consecutive seasons. What once looked like a middle-of-the-order bat now comes with considerably more questions.

1. Simeon Woods Richardson

TD Pre-Season Asset Rank: 6

No player on this list has seen his value collapse faster than Simeon Woods Richardson. Entering 2026, Woods Richardson looked like a reliable rotation piece. He wasn't expected to lead the staff, but his performance over the previous two seasons suggested he could comfortably hold down a middle-of-the-rotation role. From 2024-25, he posted a 4.11 ERA, 102 ERA+, and 1.29 WHIP while providing valuable innings.

That stability completely disappeared this season. Woods Richardson struggled from the beginning and never found answers. In 47 2/3 innings with Minnesota, he allowed 41 earned runs while producing a 61 ERA+ and -1.3 rWAR.

The performance became so poor that the Twins designated him for assignment and eventually traded him to Toronto for cash considerations. For a player who entered the season ranked sixth in organizational asset value, ending up off the roster within a few months represents one of the steepest declines imaginable. His value simply could not have fallen much further.

Baseball has a way of humbling even the most optimistic projections. Just a few months ago, these five players represented key pieces of Minnesota's present and future. Some were expected to anchor the rotation, others were viewed as everyday lineup fixtures, and a few were considered among the organization's most valuable assets.

The good news for the Twins is that value can rebound just as quickly as it falls. Keaschall, Lewis, and Wallner still have time to change the narrative before the season ends, while López's long-term outlook will depend on his recovery. Woods Richardson's chapter in Minnesota appears finished, but the others still have opportunities to reclaim some of the value they have lost.

The remainder of the 2026 season could go a long way toward determining whether these declines are temporary setbacks or signs of larger concerns for the organization moving forward.

Should any other players be added to the rankings? How would your rankings look? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[big dog]

I've been a strong believer in Wallner but he's running out of runway to get that plane off the ground.

Odd that SW-R had a very nice first outing for the Jays and has been sitting for a week. Maybe they weren't that impressed.

[Road trip]

Keaschall is a tough grade.  Some struggles and adjustments are normal for a rookie.  Expecting him to continue to produce at the clip he showed during a brief run in 2025 probably was not realistic.  I'd probably put either of the free agent signings (Caratini or Bell) as 5th most disappointing rather than Keaschall.

SWR obviously went to zero value, but his value going into the season was just marginal to me.  I don't understand how he was ranked so high on the preseason list.  He was a potential #4 type starter, but likely a #5.  I guess he was young and cheap.  I'd maybe put him 3rd on the list in terms of value drop.

Wallner dropped a lot, 2nd seems appropriate.

Pablo, unfortunately, gets the top spot for me.  He came in as a #1/#2 type of starter, and now I think it is likely that he never throws another pitch for the Twins, and obviously won't bring back anything in a potential trade.  Much like SWR, his value is now unfortunately zero.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, big dog said:

I've been a strong believer in Wallner but he's running out of runway to get that plane off the ground.

Odd that SW-R had a very nice first outing for the Jays and has been sitting for a week. Maybe they weren't that impressed.

SWR's role there is as a mop-up/long reliever, and they've played a bunch of close games in a row so it's natural that has hasn't entered a game for a spell. 

[Woof Bronzer]

7 minutes ago, Danchat said:

SWR's role there is as a mop-up/long reliever, and they've played a bunch of close games in a row so it's natural that has hasn't entered a game for a spell. 

I feel like he could have served that role here too given all the bullpen churn.  There really must be more to that story.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Keaschall is a tough grade.  Some struggles and adjustments are normal for a rookie. 

I'm most disappointed in Keaschall's defense than anything. He looks Julien-esque.

[RpR]

Keaschall, as was said, too close to Julien the Second

[thelanges5]

Keaschall has better hair!

[Linus]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'm most disappointed in Keaschall's defense than anything. He looks Julien-esque.

It becomes a real thing. If Keaschall was a really good defender the bar to clear with the bat wouldn’t be nearly as high. Right now he has to rake because the glove is a liability. 

[Western SD Fan]

I'll take this list and rearrange it based on where I have the most hope of recovery for each player.

1.  Royce Lewis - Will he ever be the breakout star that he looked like in 2023?  Very unlikely.  He can definitely work himself back and be a solid player and contributor to the Twins.  His new normal should be at 1st with some appearances at 2nd or 3rd like we seen last night.  As long as he can establish himself at 1st, there really isn't anyone behind him to push him out.  If he can work himself up to be a player like Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier, he will have a successful career with the Twins.

2. Pablo Lopez - I have to assume there will be a 2027 season.  A disappointing result would be Chris Paddack.  I'm think he may become more of the heartbeat of a 2027 rotation than an ace of the staff.  Think end of career Brad Radke when younger, more emerging pitchers were there like Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, and Carlos Silva as examples.  If Lopez can stabilize the rotation, the Twins may even be able to sneak a below-market extension for him as this will be his first year off of TJ surgery.

3. Luke Keaschall - I have him here mainly due to the idea that I don't think he needs a ton of hope to recover his value.  Since the team in in flux, each player, where they play, and how they play, is scrutinized a bit more than usual.  His defense needs some work.  The idea that he is being replaced defensively by either Lewis or Clemens should be a shock to the system.  I don't see a current replacement coming up for him from the minors.  That doesn't mean that a future trade or low-wattage signing (Clemens) won't push him out if he is not careful.  His batting is starting to stabilize, but he will have to show some improvement in his defense to not be in the Julien side of the equation.

4. Matt Wallner - I honestly believe his time has run out unless injury or a Buxton trade gives him another chance.  Fedko was called up for Monday's game.  Roden is now back in St. Paul and Jenkins is on a rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids.  Unless Fedko belly flops or they decide Martin needs a AAA tuneup prior to Roden or Jenkins being ready for the majors, there does not seem to be a path back for Wallner at the moment.  He may end up not be tendered a contract since he is entering his first year of arbitration and have to go seek out his own fortunes like Brent Rooker did.  Seems silly now that Wallner was expected to be the player to push Larnach out and now it looks like that it is Wallner who will be pushed out.

[Road trip]

20 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I'll take this list and rearrange it based on where I have the most hope of recovery for each player.

 

2. Pablo Lopez - I have to assume there will be a 2027 season.  A disappointing result would be Chris Paddack.  I'm think he may become more of the heartbeat of a 2027 rotation than an ace of the staff.  Think end of career Brad Radke when younger, more emerging pitchers were there like Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, and Carlos Silva as examples.  If Lopez can stabilize the rotation, the Twins may even be able to sneak a below-market extension for him as this will be his first year off of TJ surgery.

 

 

I generally agree with your list, except I can't share your optimism on Pablo.  Paddack-like may actually be the likely result, or even an optimistic result, although Paddack had a different surgery.  The internal brace procedure Pablo had is a little different, and relatively new.

A disappointing comp result for the internal brace procedure on a 2nd UCL tear would be Zach Britton or Matt Bush (both forced to retire).  Shohei Ohtani is the best possible result, but isn't really comparable as it was Ohtani's first UCL tear, and this is Pablo's second.

This article, while a bit dated being from 2023, lays out the limited pool of comps, and isn't a cause for optimism: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-ucl-internal-brace-surgery-non-study/

I have great respect for Pablo, and he could of course be the exception... but it wouldn't stun me if by 2028 he was forced to confront his own Moonlight Graham decision.... he's getting somewhat old to start med school.