A Not-Too-Early Breakdown of Minnesota’s Most Interesting Trade Deadline Candidates

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered the season hoping to convince everyone that last year’s disappointment was a temporary stumble. Instead, the first half has only created more uncertainty about where this organization is actually headed.

Minnesota’s ownership would say this isn’t a full rebuild. It also doesn’t look like a legitimate contending effort. That middle ground is the worst place a franchise can live in modern baseball. Teams either push their chips in or aggressively build toward the future. The Twins continue to hover somewhere in between, and with the trade deadline approaching, they may finally have to choose a direction.

Minnesota still has enough talent on the roster to intrigue contenders around the league. However, they also have enough flaws and long-term concerns to justify selling pieces for the future. The biggest question is whether the front office is willing to admit this core may not have the runway everyone once expected.

Here’s an early look at some of the most fascinating trade deadline decisions facing the Twins.

Byron Buxton

No player better represents the current state of the franchise than Buxton. On one hand, he remains the face of the organization. He has a full no-trade clause, and he has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to stay in Minnesota. When healthy, he is still one of the most electric players in baseball and one of the few stars capable of changing a game by himself. The Twins should do everything possible to keep him.

Trading Buxton would signal far more than a roster adjustment. It would essentially announce the end of this competitive era. He is one of the few players casual fans still associate directly with Twins baseball, and moving him would create major backlash inside the clubhouse and throughout the fanbase.

At the same time, the situation becomes more complicated if Minnesota starts moving other veteran pieces. If the front office deals away multiple core contributors, Buxton may eventually decide he no longer wants to spend the remainder of his prime stuck in another retooling phase. There would almost certainly be interest if he became available, especially from teams looking for a dynamic postseason weapon.

The Atlanta Braves would immediately become a fascinating fit. Buxton is from Georgia, and a return closer to home could appeal to him if the Twins no longer appear serious about competing. Still, unless Buxton himself pushes the issue, it is difficult to envision Minnesota voluntarily moving him.

 

Joe Ryan

Ryan might be the most realistic blockbuster candidate on the roster. He is under team control only through the 2027 season, and his value may never be higher than it is right now. Ryan survived an early-season injury scare that initially looked far more concerning, and he has continued pitching like a frontline starter whenever healthy.

That combination would make him one of the most attractive arms available at the deadline. The timing also matters. With Tarik Skubal injured, the market for controllable starting pitching could become even more aggressive. Teams desperate for rotation help would likely line up to make significant offers for Ryan.

From Minnesota’s perspective, there is logic behind considering it. The Twins do not currently look like a team positioned to seriously contend over the next two seasons. By the time the roster is realistically ready to compete again, Ryan could already be nearing free agency. Add in his injury history and the general volatility that comes with pitchers, and there is a legitimate argument that the organization should capitalize on his value now rather than waiting for something to go wrong later.

Of course, there is another side to the conversation. Quality starting pitching is incredibly difficult to acquire. Ryan is already proven, affordable, and capable of anchoring a rotation. Trading him would create an enormous hole and likely force the Twins into another lengthy search for pitching stability. Unless Minnesota receives an overwhelming package centered around elite prospects, there is still a strong case for keeping him and attempting to build around him instead.

Ryan Jeffers

Before his injury, Ryan Jeffers looked like one of the few clear success stories on Minnesota’s roster this season. He was off to a tremendous start offensively and had arguably been the team’s MVP through the first half. Jeffers provided stability in the middle of the lineup while continuing to handle a difficult workload behind the plate. At a time when much of the offense struggled with consistency, he was one of the few hitters regularly producing quality at-bats.

That is what makes this week’s injury so frustrating for both Jeffers and the Twins. Minnesota placed Jeffers on the injured list earlier this week with a broken hamate bone, an injury that will likely sideline him for six to eight weeks. The timing could not be much worse with the trade deadline approaching quickly.

 

Under normal circumstances, Jeffers would have made plenty of sense as a trade candidate. He is a veteran catcher on an expiring contract who could help a contender looking for offense behind the plate. Catching depth is always in demand at the deadline, especially from teams searching for postseason upgrades.

Now the situation becomes far murkier. Even if Jeffers returns before the deadline, he will likely need time to prove he is fully healthy. Hamate bone injuries have a long history of sapping hitters’ power temporarily after they return. Many players eventually regain their production, but it is rarely an immediate process. That uncertainty could significantly shrink his market.

Contenders may hesitate to part with meaningful prospects for a catcher who is still working his way back physically and trying to rediscover his power swing. The Twins would still likely prefer to move him rather than risk losing him for nothing after the season, but the return may not justify making the deal unless Jeffers comes back quickly and looks like himself immediately.

Josh Bell

Bell feels like the classic trade deadline rental candidate. He has been traded four different times during his career, so another move would hardly be surprising. Bell’s offensive profile also makes him the type of player contenders often gamble on in July. When he gets hot, he can carry a lineup for stretches, and playoff teams are always searching for extra power from the designated hitter spot.

A contender could easily convince itself that Bell is one productive month away from becoming an impactful postseason bat.

The problem is that his market may be limited. Bell’s defensive limitations narrow the list of interested teams considerably. His streaky offensive production also makes him difficult to trust as an everyday option. Since he is on an expiring contract, the return would likely be modest even if he finishes the first half strongly.

Minnesota may ultimately decide his veteran presence is more valuable in the clubhouse than the low-level prospect package they would receive in return. Still, among the Twins’ veteran position players, Bell remains one of the more obvious names to watch.

Austin Martin

Martin has quietly become one of the more interesting depth pieces on the roster. Since being recalled during the second half of last season, he has consistently found ways to get on base and provide quality at-bats. He has also proven capable defensively in corner outfield spots, giving Minnesota a versatile player who can contribute in multiple roles. That type of player tends to matter more over a full season than many fans realize.

However, his trade value is probably fairly limited. Contending teams could view Martin as a useful bench bat or platoon player, but there are questions about how large a role he can realistically handle. Since he bats right-handed, his ideal usage against left-handed pitching becomes somewhat restrictive compared to a traditional platoon option.

The Twins also may not gain much by moving him. Martin is under team control through 2030, and his versatility fits well on a roster that constantly deals with injuries and lineup instability. Unless another organization views him as more than a complementary piece, Minnesota likely benefits more from simply keeping him around.

Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner

A few months ago, Lewis and Wallner might have carried substantial trade value. Now, both players are coming off demotions, and their stock has cratered. That creates an awkward dilemma for Minnesota.

Selling low on talented players is almost always dangerous, especially when both still possess significant upside. Lewis was a former top prospect that the club has invested in, while Wallner’s raw power and patience still intrigue evaluators despite the swing-and-miss concerns.

Some organizations would absolutely be willing to take a gamble on either player. Teams constantly believe they can unlock talent that another franchise could not fully develop. A rebuilding club, in particular, may view Lewis or Wallner as ideal buy-low opportunities.

But that same upside is exactly why the Twins may hesitate. Trading either player right now would almost certainly mean accepting pennies on the dollar compared to what their value once looked like. Minnesota would essentially be betting that both players are closer to finished products than temporary struggles. That is an extremely risky gamble to make this early. The more likely scenario is the Twins allow both players time to rebuild value at Triple-A before revisiting any long-term decisions during the offseason.

The most frustrating part about the Twins right now is not simply that they are losing games. It is that the organization no longer feels aligned with what this current roster is supposed to accomplish.

There are still recognizable stars. There are still talented players capable of contributing to a winning team. But there are also growing signs that this core may not be built to sustain contention much longer.

That reality makes this trade deadline incredibly important. If Minnesota decides to aggressively sell, it could mark the beginning of a major organizational reset. If the front office stands pat or buys marginal help, it risks prolonging the same directionless cycle the franchise already appears trapped in.

Either way, the next few months may determine what Twins baseball looks like for the rest of the decade.

Who will the Twins trade at the deadline? Will it be another trade deadline selling spree? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Wedman13]

only opinions:
 

1.) Byron- would sting but I'd listen.  Atlanta is a natural but they don't have the prospects.  Dodgers have like 5 of the top 50.  Gimme all 5.  His value (talent and contract) have immense value

2.) Ryan - only if you are blown away

3.) Jeffers - I'd keep him

4.) Martin - No.  Trade him just to hopefully get another Austin Martin?  Doesn't make sense

5.) Bell - meh, don't care either way 

6.) Royce - it's not Pennie's on the dollar, it's Pennie's on the quarter.  If he can learn to put the ball in play, there may be a very tiny window where he contributes.  Doubtful, but we're in Lloyd Christmas territory

6.) Wallner - for god sakes free the guy.  Pennies on  a nickel.  It like the wolves signing a bad basketball player who can't make a bucket and plays bad D, but  could win the slam dunk championship.  If there's anything inside MW, let him set sail and find it elsewhere.  
 

Love the article 

[DJL44]

Bailey Ober should be on this list. I'm not sure how much longer he can fool people with declining velocity. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

3.) Jeffers - I'd keep him

Even if they want him back in free agency, they should 1000% trade Ryan Jeffers.

[DJL44]

Anyone over age 29 should be on the "potential trade" list.

[Wedman13]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Even if they want him back in free agency, they should 1000% trade Ryan Jeffers.

Just seems contributing backstops are hard to find.  Forgot about Ober, which probably tells me what his value is.  I do struggle with Ryan, as his velocity doesn't define his success,.  Also, it won't happen but if you can trade Lee for some other teams struggling prospect I'd consider.  
 

[mikelink45]

Too early.  I am intrigued by Gonzales, I like the young arms - not SWR this year, I look forward to seeing more from Rodriguez and Jenkins. The trade deadline is not until August, the team has to keep moving pieces around.

My regret is that we will lose Jeffers to FA.  If I examine this list from a FA standpoint Ryan and Jeffers are the most obvious.  Keep Martin, keep Buxton.  

Where is the trade Larnach voice that dominated the off season?

Royce and Wallner are not trade pieces.  They have no value now.  I expect that Wallner will be eventually DFA'd.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Where is the trade Larnach voice that dominated the off season?

It's a better idea now than it was then. I can't imagine they want to keep Larnach through another year of arbitration.

[DJL44]

Taylor Rogers is tradeable just like Coulombe was last season.

[hitterscount]

You’re not gonna be able to afford Ryan, or should you, to an extension. Small market teams can win if they can identify and develop that talent that fits their overall team philosophy. What you can’t do is pay a player 35-40 million a year. Plus we have enough good team controlled arms in the rotation.

You should listen to offers for everyone on the list, the one guy I would like to keep is Jeffers. And can we please stop talking about Wallner, he hasn’t had substantial trade value since 2023, maybe you could have landed a low level player at the deadline in 2024. Lewis probably close to going in the same category, just as important as identifying talent is knowing when to cut bait or the right time to trade at peak value.

[Major League Ready]

I pray for a big haul from Ryan and hopefully Jeffers stays hot and brings a good prospect.  I hate to see Buxton go but as they say ... if the price is right.

The Guardians are once again on top of the central and the Ray's have the best record in the AL.  Those two teams consistently trade for younger / cheaper talent with more years of control.  Why, when fans hate it?  Because the only way a team with half the revenue can possibly construct a true contender is to trade a year or a year and a half of control for 7 years of control at a cost far less per WAR than free agents or even the last couple years of arbitration.  

These teams have traded many productive players with .5 - 1.5 years of control for prospects or MLB ready players that performed well for them for 5+ years and then traded that player for a player that gave them another 5 or 6 years of production.  (ie. Cory Kliuber)  That's a big part of their success.  Many fans hate the idea but the evidence and the success as compared to other organizations is quite clear.  

[Blyleven2011]

How will the FO operate at the deadline  , in a weak division we are competive , in the league we are not a contender ...

Really way to early to speculate ...

Joe Ryan  , we have solid young pitching to replace Ryan,  trade Ryan  if the offer is substantial  Lopez is back next year  ...

Ryan jeffers  , injured now but was having his best start to his career this season  , trade if healthy and someone comes calling with a decent offer  ...

Trade one year contracts , Roger's , Gray , nobody is going to want Bell as just a DH unless he is a 300 hitter ...

What about Larnach , his value may be high if he doesn't slump and we have outfield covered with potential prospects ...

Buxton no , Martin no , Lewis and Wallner as of now with no value is a no ...

Why is funderburk still in the minors  , why is Garcia still on this team , these are head scratchers that the FO continues to have us live with ...

[Jeff K]

I think Larnach's play has created value for a trade.  And while I like the guy, he is in the way of our young outfielders who appear to have higher ceilings.  

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Trade Larnach. Trade Bell. Super easy decisions there. 

If we can't sign Jeffers to an extension, it stinks but we must Trade him. Cant get nothing for such a good catcher. 

Lewis and Wallner depend on the return. Im open to trading or keeping. Just don't want to give them away. 

Im keeping Ryan unless I'm absolutely blown away by an offer. And not Alan roden and Kendry Rojas 🙄 "blown away" . I mean actual potentially franchise altering player blown away. 

Absolutely not trading Buxton ever unless he asks for it. Hoping he stays his entire career 

[Wedman13]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I pray for a big haul from Ryan and hopefully Jeffers stays hot and brings a good prospect.  I hate to see Buxton go but as they say ... if the price is right.

The Guardians are once again on top of the central and the Ray's have the best record in the AL.  Those two teams consistently trade for younger / cheaper talent with more years of control.  Why, when fans hate it?  Because the only way a team with half the revenue can possibly construct a true contender is to trade a year or a year and a half of control for 7 years of control at a cost far less per WAR than free agents or even the last couple years of arbitration.  

These teams have traded many productive players with .5 - 1.5 years of control for prospects or MLB ready players that performed well for them for 5+ years and then traded that player for a player that gave them another 5 or 6 years of production.  (ie. Cory Kliuber)  That's a big part of their success.  Many fans hate the idea but the evidence and the success as compared to other organizations is quite clear.  

In my opinion, which is worth little, this nails it.  The Pohlads are so nervous to be the Pohlads that they'll appease with the occasional Donaldson or Correa, surround them with 20 fringe major leaguers then sit tight with the below average fringe players way to long..  it may not have been popular the past 2 years but between Polanco and last year we have Bradley, Abel, Tait, Gonzalez, Rojas and Mendez.  Will they all work out?  No.  But on the same timeline.  That's not to say you can go 100% youth, but you can't dump all your payroll into 2-3 guys, like we seemingly always have the past 5-10 years.  It's not basketball.

[FlyingFinn]

Jeffers injury occurred early enough that his trade value should be very close to what it was before his injury. Plenty of teams need a good catcher.

[strumdatjag]

This may be a good time to explore signing Ryan Jeffers to a longterm contract.   If not possible, make a trade.  
Byron Buxton should finish his career here.    He is like Salvador Perez to the KC Royals (except for the World Series wins and likely HOF future induction).   He is the guy to return at age 40 to induct into the Twins HOF and at age 50 and beyond to commemorate his career.    
Take reasonable offers on the rest of the list.  Another potential trade nobody here discusses is Brooks Lee, if a very good offer is made.  The Twins have depth at SS in the minor leagues.   

[umterp23]

At some point the.players will want opportunities to compete for a championship consistently. Twins aren’t there and might not be in the next 2, 3, 4 years. Buxton will want that chance. You have to listen on what a package will be and let him decide.  Jeffers and his hot start hurts both side with injury, but you trade him since Boras will push off season price narrative. Ryan you move him for best return. Pick anyone of these in Ryan or Jeffers and Buxton will opt out in my opinion.