Math is starting to be a Problem

[Linus]

Our favorite club is 15-20. 
Assuming 85 wins are needed to make the playoffs (who knows the exact number) the Twins would have to go 70-57 the rest of the way to get 85 wins. Obviously anything is possible but that is a tall order for this club. What percentage chance would you give them?

im thinking 15%. What say you?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Our favorite club is 15-20. 
Assuming 85 wins are needed to make the playoffs (who knows the exact number) the Twins would have to go 70-57 the rest of the way to get 85 wins. Obviously anything is possible but that is a tall order for this club. What percentage chance would you give them?

im thinking 15%. What say you?

All Twins fans are hoping the Twins win every game. I'm enjoying this team more than I did the last two versions (2024 & 2025). Nevertheless, talent is a real thing. The Twins were picked to win 72 or 73 games. That was before Pablo Lopez went down. Joe Ryan is going to go on the IL for at least a couple of weeks, if one thinks best case scenario.

While I'm thinking quite positive about the top minor league prospects and young pitchers, experience takes time. Winning 81 games would make Derek Shelton manager of the year, which I hope he reaches. In the meantime I'm looking for small improvements, some promotions in June, and growth of our young and inexperienced pitchers.

When a few top prospects push forward the defense will be greatly improved, which will be a huge boost to the pitchers. This will take time.

Because the front office felt that the roster was "good enough" the last three years, the team stood still. Then came the unforeseen late July trades, which were followed up by ..... nothing. The future will be better and I'm not going to get angry at the slow roster movement. Hope for 77 wins in 2026 to beat Las Vegas. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Somewhat related to the question but not necessarily, Skubal hits the IL. Elbow surgery. 'Loose bodies'. Makes those games slightly more 'winnable'.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Our favorite club is 15-20. 
Assuming 85 wins are needed to make the playoffs (who knows the exact number) the Twins would have to go 70-57 the rest of the way to get 85 wins. Obviously anything is possible but that is a tall order for this club. What percentage chance would you give them?

im thinking 15%. What say you?

0.0

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but I'm also not interested in an 85-win "playoff" team either. I'll perk up once there's an actual championship contender on the field. And no, I absolutely do not believe that every team that makes the playoffs has a reasonable chance at winning the whole thing.

[LakesPibble]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but I'm also not interested in an 85-win "playoff" teams either. I'll perk up once there's an actual championship contender on the field. And no, I absolutely do not believe that every team that makes the playoffs has a reasonable chance at winning the whole thing.

Until baseball addresses the payroll disparities the Twins will never win a championship.  Nor will any other middling team.  It's been 11 years since KC won the series and the spending gap has only gotten bigger.

I want a team that's fun to watch with an ownership group that doesn't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

[amjgt]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but I'm also not interested in an 85-win "playoff" teams either. I'll perk up once there's an actual championship contender on the field. And no, I absolutely do not believe that every team that makes the playoffs has a reasonable chance at winning the whole thing.

I think this is just you being obtuse. 
 

Not many teams jump from 70 wins to championship contender. I don’t think we’re going to get even close to 85 wins this year, but if enough things go right, we do get to 85 wins, and we sneak into the playoffs, I simply don’t believe that you will not have perked up at all. If for no other reason than we will have identified some very solid core pieces to a championship contender. 
 

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I think this is just you being obtuse. 
 

Not many teams jump from 70 wins to championship contender. I don’t think we’re going to get even close to 85 wins this year, but if enough things go right, we do get to 85 wins, and we sneak into the playoffs, I simply don’t believe that you will not have perked up at all. If for no other reason than we will have identified some very solid core pieces to a championship contender. 
 

But if we're acknowledging that an 85 win team is not an actual contender, then I stand by my post. I don't care about playoffs, I care about championships. We're long overdue. 

I absolutely care about building to get to one, but I don't think you build  one measuring by wins. In fact, I think if you DO measure by wins, than you're almost certainly sacrificing developing future players who could possibly get you there by chasing those 85 wins. Case in point, keeping SWR and Matthews in the rotation instead of developing them as late inning relievers. Rostering Kody Clemmons and James Outman instead of (a day too late now due to injuries) rostering E-Rod and Culpepper. 

So since most young players don't come out of the gates superstars, pushing their MLB development back to chase these empty wins is also pushing meaningful contention back. From my point of view, the only obtuse fan or owner, is the one who thinks 2026 is going to be memorable in a good way.

[ziggy]

9 hours ago, Linus said:

to get 85 wins. Obviously anything is possible but that is a tall order for this club. What percentage chance would you give them?

im thinking 15%. What say you?

Less than 5%. I have not placed a bet in a couple of years but if I got 10 to 1 that the Twins would win 85 or more I would pass or bet the under at much less odds.  Top 2 starting pitchers are now out of the rotation, the bullpen is embarrassing, the defense leaky and the hitting is streaky. 

Twins might beat the 72&1/2 that Las Vegas pegged them for but not 85.

[Vanimal46]

34 minutes ago, ziggy said:

Top 2 starting pitchers are now out of the rotation, the bullpen is embarrassing, the defense leaky and the hitting is streaky. 

Besides that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? 

[tony&rodney]

Which position players are you holding on to for 2027? Who plays where? That will determine wins/losses.

There are numerous items one must consider to roster a competitive team. Competitive means having the ability to win any series and being a surefire above .500 squad, even 83 victories. Perhaps holding the players at hand last offseason was problematic but that is now in the past. How does the team turn the "Math" around this season?

The idea that position players need 1,000 or more plate appearances before it is known whether a hitter will be serviceable is fair to an extent. One can also parse through reams of statistics to arrive at conclusions. 

Likewise pitchers need control and command along with some MLB experience to understand how batters view their pitches or what works to gain outs.

Defense took a back seat, for whatever reason, in recent Twins history and we see opponents reach base quite often on batted balls that should be outs. Those missed outs are deleterious to every pitcher but especially to those hurlers who cannot rely on striking out hitters at a high rate. The bullpen misses the strike outs of Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart. That is not a complaint at all against the late July moves but merely a reality of how the current gloves are a poor match for contact relievers.

The Math of winning, either now or in the future, depends to a significant degree on the makeup of the roster. What can be done?

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

14 hours ago, LakesPibble said:

Until baseball addresses the payroll disparities the Twins will never win a championship.  Nor will any other middling team.  It's been 11 years since KC won the series and the spending gap has only gotten bigger.

True, true, and true! This aspect of baseball needs to be fixed before it's too late. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

Our favorite club is 15-20. 
Assuming 85 wins are needed to make the playoffs (who knows the exact number) the Twins would have to go 70-57 the rest of the way to get 85 wins. Obviously anything is possible but that is a tall order for this club. What percentage chance would you give them?

im thinking 15%. What say you?

0.1% chance they go 70-57 rest of season

9.9% chance they go 66-61 rest of season

90% they go worse than 57-70 rest of season

The hitters are the same. The fielders are the same. The starting pitching is the same and decimated by injury, and there is no bullpen at all compared to a very good bullpen up to the trade deadline.

why would a team who is objectively worse than the one we watched last year go 70-92 be better than that?