How the Twins Beat Expectations to Become Lefty Mashers (and Why It Might Not Last)

[Peter Labuza]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

After another surprising beatdown of one of the league’s potential Cy Young candidates, fans cannot ignore what is becoming a fact: The Minnesota Twins are hitting left-handed pitchers well. While the 2025 Twins carried a .602 OPS against lefties in April, this year's team entered Tuesday at .734, good for sixth in the league. Their victims include Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, and Garrett Crochet. 

It's a good thing, too, because the Twins have seen over 45% of their pitches this season from southpaws, more than half again the league-average mark of 28%. Most expected the team to flounder during this left-leaning to start the season. Instead, they've ignited a fire.

For any close follower of the Minnesota Twins—or at least anyone who has listened to years of critics (rightly) screaming out for a right-handed corner outfield bat to balance a platoon-designed lineup—this sudden flip feels like a shock to the system. It's even more jarring to see it happen despite Byron Buxton struggling (until this week), when he was viewed as perhaps the only reliable lefty-masher on the team entering this season.

There are a few ways to break down the sudden shift in energy that now has the Twins in first place in the American League. But there are small red lights, too, blinking out a warning that this might not be sustainable.

Swing Early or Don’t Swing at All
The Twins have employed a variety of game plans this year, but one fascinating juxtaposition stands out when you look at the data. The Twins are both extremely aggressive and very patient. As we’ve seen a number of times, players have no interest in waiting for the "perfect" pitch. They’ve swung at the first pitch against lefties 32% of the time (10th in the league), resulting in a .343/.378/.686 slash line. 

Overall, though, they rank 28th in swing rate. Their walk rate is 11.9% facing lefties, which ranks 7th in the league. When you look closely, the Twins are simply playing the odds. This bifurcated approach has become increasingly popular among smart teams over the last decade: get in the box ready to hit, but if you do get deeper in a count, become more patient there. You might just work your way on base. Here's how the Twins compare to the rest of the league in terms of swing rate by count against lefties.

Count	Twins	Rest of League	% Difference
0-0	32.2%	29.7%	2.5%
0-1	42.6%	47.8%	-5.2%
0-2	51.3%	48.6%	2.7%
1-0	47.1%	41.2%	5.9%
1-1	55.3%	53.8%	1.5%
1-2	48.6%	58.3%	-9.6%
2-0	45.7%	33.3%	12.4%
2-1	48.1%	57.0%	-8.9%
2-2	51.2%	60.4%	-9.2%
3-0	0.0%	4.3%	-4.3%
3-1	31.0%	46.5%	-15.5%
3-2	59.7%	65.8%	-6.1%

In a pregame media scrum, Derek Shelton explained that “the biggest thing is just not chasing. It’s just making sure we stay in our hitting zones.” While the Twins have been certainly low in the chase rate department—swinging at just 16% of pitches outside the zone (4th lowest in the league)—they are also swinging notably less at pitches in the zone, close to a league average of 57%. This means they’re setting up for good counts and good pitches.

Finding Just Enough Grass
Without generating an especially high hard-hit rate or relying too heavily on the home run (in March and April, after all, the ball doesn't fly very well), the Twins have been one of the best teams in the league at dropping singles and doubles into the outfield. They lift the ball, but despite the fact that it's cold, they're finding space in which it can land.

The trick is pulling the ball, where the Twins rank 2nd in Air Pulls. Sometimes, it's not about hitting it 110 MPH. In fact, hitting softer flares can create an unsexy sweet spot, where you're likely to get it over the infielders but drop it in front of the outfield. As long as you offer enough of a threat to stop the outfielders from coming in an extra 15 feet against you, there's a lot of room out there.

On the Hunt for Speed
Because they're overrepresented in the population of pitchers (relative to their prevalence in the population as a whole), left-handed pitchers don't throw as hard as righties do. They usually beat you by forcing you to play their funky angles and fall for their offspeed tricks. The Twins refuse to be fooled.

So far this spring, Minnesota hitters have pointedly found ways to attack high-speed pitches coming from southpaws, rather than off-speed stuff. They have a hard-hit rate of 47.5% on fastballs, fifth in the league, and a 22.8% hard-hit rate on off-speed pitches—25th in the league.

The trick here seems to be what Baseball Savant calls the Ideal Attack Angle (IAA) rate. A well-timed swing should catch the ball as the barrel works uphill at somewhere between 5° and 20°, relative to an imaginary horizontal line parallel to the ground. Ted Williams taught this: the pitch is coming down, so you have to swing up.

Once again, the Twins' difference is notable: 3rd in the league in IAA% when it comes to fastballs; 25th in the league when it comes to other stuff.

For example, check out this Matt Wallner single off Skubal. The reigning Cy Young Award winner leaves it down and in the center of the zone. Wallner, known for crushing the ball, does something different. His swing comes in low, looking to simply match and line up with the pitch. The Big Moose lands a single 210 feet and scores a run.

Once again, the Twins are taking advantage of cold weather. Skubal's velocity is down a tick, and he's only gotten a 14% whiff rate on his fastball—down from 24% in those previous full seasons. That might be just enough to let hitters like Wallner focus on location, rather than timing.

Warming Signs
As I’ve outlined here, the Twins' lefty strategy seems to be partially working because of cold weather. As summer approaches, those pulled balls might end up safely in an outfielder’s glove. Pitchers' heaters might warm with the weather. Players might find themselves forced to fight off pitches, rather than confidently waiting for good ones. More likely still is that we'll find that some of these results are just a matter of several players playing slightly above their real talent level, in a way that won't last.

All the wins count, though. For now, the team is thriving. In the game of the season, an inning has already been played, and surprising lefty-mashing has given the Twins a snug but real lead. What comes next matters, but so does what's already happened.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Fascinating article Peter. Thank you.

[Trov]

The hitting approach should not change, unless the pitcher change their plan of attack.  A few years ago the Twins did the swing early, and then pitchers adjusted and threw junk up on pitch 1.  So if the pitchers start doing that you need to take those.  If the team is getting better at not chasing, and not swinging at pitchers pitches, that is a good thing.  There is nothing wrong with taking a pitch in the zone if it is not a pitch you will do much with.  The only exception is with 2 strikes if you can waste the pitch, that is good.  Else, you should sit on a pitch and location generally and if that is not the one, take it. 

[wmsrandy]

Agree - great article, 

[tony&rodney]

The idea has existed forever in baseball. Look for your pitch to hit early and put a big swing on it. Thereafter, especially down in the count, get the bat to the ball and force a play.

Mick Abel demonstrated yesterday that this is difficult when a pitcher has several pitches working and stays out of the hitting zone. One ball was hit hard - Anthony had a line drive single to CF. The other hits were bleeders. If Boston gets a couple of bloops and Abel then gives up a cookie, the evening might unfold differently. Pitchers who stay out of the zone make for a miserable experience for hitters.

Great article that shows the importance of planning ahead of time and then executing it. Mental fortitude will determine, to an extent, whether the Twins can continue to find success against pitchers. That and hoping the team doesn't run into guys who are on their game like Mick Abel was last night.

[Peter]

I knew twins would be good!!! Don’t listen to the national media!!! F them!!! They hate our state and all our teams!!! Twins aren’t going anywhere!!! They are going to be in division race all season-

[DJL44]

Isn’t Austin Martin the RH outfielder everyone has been asking for?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nice article.  Let’s hope they can adjust as pitchers adjust to their strategies. In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy this while it lasts!  

[old nurse]

Don’t chase out of the zone pitches may have either finally sunk in or the free swingers are either gone or injured. 

[WarPath1211]

I think the good production can continue against lefties, although the shape of it may look a bit different, for the simple reason that Keaschall and Buxton haven't really heated up until recently (although Keaschall has been okay against lefties but not standout). Buxton is hitting very poorly against lefties now but that shouldn't last as he has absolutely destroyed lefties the last couple of years. If these two can heat up as Jeffers and Martin (who have crushed lefties thus far) cool off a bit, and you scrape up enough offense from the rest of the lineup, they can keep the line moving.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Nice article.  Let’s hope they can adjust as pitchers adjust to their strategies. In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy this while it lasts!  

This.

They say it takes about 40 games to really know what you have as a team. The Twins are exceeding expectations thus far. Hopefully they can continue, but for now, enjoy the ride.

[Western SD Fan]

I had suggested that the Twins were doing well against lefties since the hitters have just been seeing the ball from that side with all of the AB's they have taken against lefties this year.  Watching the game last night, Molitor quickly told me that I was full of it when that question was broached during the game.  Molitor's opinion was that since many lefties have odd release points, that you're never really used seeing the ball.

I would also think that the Twins will probably come back towards the mean at some point in the season.  I just hope that they don't go back so far as looking helpless against any lefty.  I also wonder the effect hitting coach Keith Beauregard and veterans such as that Josh Bell has had on the team.  Bell is a professional hitter and may be more accessible to the younger hitters than Correa.  I could be wrong about that.  They have been discussing player dinners and player events this year.  We never heard about these types in previous years.

 

[IndianaTwin]

Why would they struggle against LHP? Arguably their best lineup is five righties, three switchies and a lefty. 

Said another way, Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall, arguably the three hitters that people have the greatest confidence in, are all righties.

If anything, they should be expected to struggle more against righties, since they are likely going to have four guys most days (Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, Lewis when not hurt) with the platoon disadvantage. 

[Peter Labuza]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Why would they struggle against LHP? Arguably their best lineup is five righties, three switchies and a lefty. 

Said another way, Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall, arguably the three hitters that people have the greatest confidence in, are all righties.

If anything, they should be expected to struggle more against righties, since they are likely going to have four guys most days (Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, Lewis when not hurt) with the platoon disadvantage. 

There's a few things worth noting. Their April WRC against Lefties the last four years has been: 18, 39, 18, and now 41. (2024 included the 12 game win streak). More notably their walk rate against lefties has always been under 7%, now it's practically 12%. And notably they aren't doing it with ground balls but fly balls as they did in 2024, which makes it even more interesting.

Obviously you are right, line up changes matter—especially Bell and Carantini. But as I noted (a) Buxton wasn't hitting until last night; (2) despite some key righty bats, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens, and Lewis had struggled against LHP all last year. Now they're hitting.