Ranking Twins Top-5 Pitching Prospects By Upside

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Malamut Photography (photo of Dasan Hill)

Prospect rankings are never as simple as lining players up from best to worst. A traditional list tries to balance everything at once. Upside, present tools, age, injury history, proximity to the big leagues, and even organizational need all get thrown into the mix. It is part projection, part preference, and part educated guess.

This exercise throws most of that out the window. Instead of weighing floors and timelines, this ranking leans fully into ceiling. It is about identifying which arms in the Twins system could become something special if everything clicks. That might mean ignoring risk. It might mean betting on pitchers who have barely thrown or struggled to stay on the mound. In some cases, the floor might be never reaching Target Field. But the reward, if it hits, could be enormous.

Here are five Twins pitching prospects ranked purely by upside.

5. Riley Quick, RHP
Twins Daily Current Prospect Rank: 11
Quick looks the part before he even throws a pitch. At 6’6” and 250 pounds, the former four-star football recruit brings rare physicality to the mound. That alone creates intrigue, but the upside comes from how quickly his stuff returned after surgery.

Just a year removed from Tommy John, he was already touching the upper 90s, flirting with 99 mph. That kind of velocity rebound suggests there may still be another gear as he gets further removed from the procedure. Pair that with a legitimate four-pitch mix, and you start to see the outline of a durable, innings-eating starter with power stuff.

The Twins slow-played his debut, which only adds to the mystery. Minnesota will start him in the low minors in 2026, where he should dominate the competition. There is risk in a pitcher with a limited recent workload, but the combination of size, arm strength, and pitch mix gives Quick a ceiling that extends well beyond a typical mid-rotation profile.

4. Connor Prielipp, LHP
Twins Daily Current Prospect Rank: 5
At his best, Prielipp might have the most complete arsenal on this list. He has already shown what it looks like when everything is working. A mid-90s fastball, a true plus-slider, and a quality changeup give him the weapons of a front-line starter. The strikeout numbers back that up (27.0 K%), and when he was finally healthy in 2025, the results followed.

Health is the obvious caveat. Years of elbow issues have limited his workload to the point where projecting a full starter’s role becomes difficult. Even after a relatively stable season, he has still thrown a fraction of the innings typical for someone his age.

But that is where upside comes into play. If Prielipp can hold his health long enough to build innings, the pitch mix is good enough to slot near the top of a rotation. And if durability pushes him to the bullpen, the stuff could play up into something even more dominant in shorter bursts. There are multiple paths to impact, which raises the overall ceiling.

3. Charlee Soto, RHP
Twins Daily Current Prospect Rank: 10
Soto is the definition of volatile upside. The raw ingredients are loud. He can reach triple-digits and flashes three pitches that project as above average or better. His changeup already stands out as a legitimate weapon, and his slider took a step forward when his velocity ticked up early in 2025.

That brief three-appearance stretch, before his season was cut short, is part of what makes him so intriguing. The added velocity hinted at another level, even if it came in a tiny sample. There was no ligament damage, which keeps the long-term outlook intact, but missed time and inconsistent command leave plenty unanswered.

Soto does not need perfect command to succeed, but he will need more consistency in the strike zone. If that comes, the arsenal is good enough to dream on a high-impact starter. If it does not, the fallback could still be a power reliever with dominant stretches. Either way, the upside is tied to just how electric the arm can be.

2. Kendry Rojas, LHP
Twins Daily Current Prospect Rank: 8
Rojas is a reminder that upside is not always linear, especially after being traded to the Twins as part of the Louis Varland deal. His introduction to the organization did not go smoothly, as he struggled to find the strike zone in Triple-A. Walks piled up, and the stat line turned ugly in a hurry. For many rankings, that would be enough to push him down.

For this exercise, it is almost irrelevant. Even during those struggles, the traits that matter showed through. He sat in the mid-90s with his fastball and generated swings and misses with both his changeup and slider. When he was around the zone, hitters had a hard time squaring him up.

That is the key. If the Twins can help him harness the command, there is playoff-caliber starter potential with the raw stuff to miss bats consistently. Injuries and inconsistency have limited his track record, but the flashes are loud enough to keep the ceiling intact. In a more optimistic outcome, he becomes a reliable starter. In a less stable one, he still has the weapons to thrive in high-leverage relief.

1. Dasan Hill, LHP
Twins Daily Current Prospect Rank: 7
Hill is the purest upside play in the system. When the Twins drafted him, the appeal was projection. A tall, lean high school lefty with room to grow and a fastball that hinted at more. It did not take long for that projection to start turning into reality.

His velocity jumped into the mid-90s almost immediately, and he began overpowering hitters in his first taste of pro ball. The strikeout numbers followed (31.1 K%), and both his slider and changeup showed the ability to miss bats against lower-level competition.

The command, as expected, is still a work in progress. Walks piled up (15.0 BB%), and efficiency was not always there. That is typical for a young pitcher learning to control newfound velocity and sharper secondary pitches.

What separates Hill is how high the ceiling climbs if it all comes together. A left-hander with near triple-digit velocity and two swing-and-miss secondaries does not come around often. If he finds even average control, he has the ingredients of a true front-line starter. If he does not, the fallback could still be a dominant, high-leverage arm.

Upside rankings are not meant to be comfortable. They require buying into uncertainty and accepting that some of these arms may never fully click. Injuries, command issues, and stalled development are all part of the equation. That is what makes pitching prospects so volatile in the first place.

But it is also what makes them so compelling. The Twins system does not lack for intriguing arms, and this group highlights just how wide the range of outcomes can be. From near-ready options with frontline stuff to teenage projections still taking shape, the ceiling on this group is undeniable.

If even one or two of these pitchers reach that ceiling, it could reshape the future of the organization’s rotation in a hurry.

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How would you rank the Twins' top pitching prospects by upside? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Peter Gravett]

Good read on something we all dream about - starter upside. These 5 are going to be especially fun to follow this year and the last one (Soto) will be back on the field very soon.

[LambchoP]

Nice to dream, but all these guys are either injured or coming off Injuries:(

[Dman]

I might have flipped places for Soto and Quick, but given Quick hasn't thrown a pitch this list looks good to me.  That's 5 nice arms if everything clicks.  Bohorquez could be another difference making arm as well.

[Hashim]

Good article and assessment of our precarious pitching situation. We have a lot of hope and copium as Twins fans but we’ve been burnt by potential and injuries before. I hope half of these guys can succeed to fulfill their immense potential and the other half become mainstays in the bullpen. I believe Prielipp, Raya, Matthews, and even Festa will become good long term bullpen gems. They have great stuff and velocity but can’t stay healthy and can’t get guys out the 2nd or 3rd time around in the lineup. 

[tony&rodney]

Interesting that these lists often seem to be heavy on A and A+ ball players with a token AAA pitcher. Guess it works. I have no quibble with the lists, although I want to see prospects show their stuff at higher levels before getting too hyped. The guys drafted last year shot out pretty big year. James Ellwanger looked really good in his innings. 

I understand I'm in the minority in liking Andrew Morris, but he has made progress each of the last few years. The command within the zone was an issue a couple years ago. He has good control.  Last year Morris was tipping his pitches with glove placement. That has been corrected. Now he is working on an improved curveball and tweaking his changeup. He has hit 99 mph in his career and almost always sits 95-97 mph with his four seam fastball. I'm bullish on his future despite his slight frame. I guess anyone could have the usual concerns about a smallish pitcher living in the high 90s suffering an arm injury. We shall see how this year plays out. Certainly all these pitchers live on the edge when it comes to elbows and shoulders.

One thing about the Twins pitching prospects - it always seems like there are as many as a dozen decent guys and most fizzle before they reach the bigs. This year, we once again are wishing on a pile of promising prospects. 

[twinstalker]

Probably the correct five, though I have no idea about the upside of 75% of the Twins minor league starters (which is basically almost the rest of them).

[DocBauer]

Yep, this seems right, more or less. 

Just for a moment were we to forget college seniors have ZERO leverage on draft day, you kinda have to wonder what Quick might have done his senior year post TJ. This kid has real STUFF.  He's probably a top 10 if he had another college season to prove himself. I think we got a real steal here.

I'm in what seems to be a minority in regard to Prielipp. I'd rather have a 25/26 yo late arriving SP who can be good mid rotation SP who might have TOP of the rotation potential until his his late 20's and early 30's. Who decided he should be some HOF pitcher? He might still end up being a STUD RP. But why give up so soon as a potential rotation option?

Soto is big, strong, smart, a quality and hard working kid, who has already flashed his potential. If he can just be healthy in 2026, he could be rising up prospect rankings fast. I think he's special if he can just be healthy in 2026. Patience is required, but he's got everything you want for a young pitching prospect.

Rojas and Prielipp are very similar. When does the STUFF take hold? While it would be AWESOME for BOTH to challenge for a SP with the Twins at some point in 2026, SOMEONE might move to the pen in the future. And that future might not be that far away.

But as much as I'd argue that Soto REMAINS a TOP prospect despite his abbreviated 2025, I can see him being a fast riser and potential top 100 prospect if he can he just be healthy for 2026.

Hill makes sense as #1. Pure potential and what we've seen so for, he has the ability to be special. 

I think a sleeper is Ellwanger. I wouldn't be surprised if he changed some top prospect list pretty soon.

[DarrenPS]

I think the list for order by possible upside is:

1. Soto 2. Hill 3. Prielipp 4. Rojas 5. Quick HM. Ellwanger

Not a huge difference but I think Soto has the highest upside and volatility in the system for possible outcomes

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Would Mic Able make this list if he were eligible? Possibly not, given the criteria of this list.

[Russ]

Let's review at mid season

[Peter Gravett]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Yep, this seems right, more or less. 

Just for a moment were we to forget college seniors have ZERO leverage on draft day, you kinda have to wonder what Quick might have done his senior year post TJ. This kid has real STUFF.  He's probably a top 10 if he had another college season to prove himself. I think we got a real steal here.

I'm in what seems to be a minority in regard to Prielipp. I'd rather have a 25/26 yo late arriving SP who can be good mid rotation SP who might have TOP of the rotation potential until his his late 20's and early 30's. Who decided he should be some HOF pitcher? He might still end up being a STUD RP. But why give up so soon as a potential rotation option?

Soto is big, strong, smart, a quality and hard working kid, who has already flashed his potential. If he can just be healthy in 2026, he could be rising up prospect rankings fast. I think he's special if he can just be healthy in 2026. Patience is required, but he's got everything you want for a young pitching prospect.

Rojas and Prielipp are very similar. When does the STUFF take hold? While it would be AWESOME for BOTH to challenge for a SP with the Twins at some point in 2026, SOMEONE might move to the pen in the future. And that future might not be that far away.

But as much as I'd argue that Soto REMAINS a TOP prospect despite his abbreviated 2025, I can see him being a fast riser and potential top 100 prospect if he can he just be healthy for 2026.

Hill makes sense as #1. Pure potential and what we've seen so for, he has the ability to be special. 

I think a sleeper is Ellwanger. I wouldn't be surprised if he changed some top prospect list pretty soon.

I talked to Soto in the stands in Ft. Myers. The kid is huge, but humble. 

[Possumlad]

This sort of prospect list is much more interesting to me than the typical ones. You can't be a consistent contender without 2-3 regulars, 2-3 starters, and 2-3 relievers who are in the top 15-25% of big leaguers at the their position. Until you get those pieces in place, the rest doesn't matter much... and frankly, it's not all that hard to fill in "the rest."

For that reason, prospects (even high-floor prospects) with a ceiling of "big league regular" or--especially--"situational big leaguer"--just don't get my juices flowing. Some of those guys will turn in to slightly-above-average starters, which is obviously still valuable... but you need the really high-end guys to truly compete.