Pohlads Willing to Spend?

[ThePuck]

This is a huge jump. You do know the Twins are currently really bad and have been for 3 years now? Free agents aren't coming here unless you grossly over pay them which is never a good idea, especially when you are rebuilding. Reports came out this off season saying we couldn't give our money away. I rather Ryan be smart with FA signings till our younger talent is ready. Over spending on average talent at best is never a good business move.

 

I don't think it's a huge jump at all...not in any way. I think it's a huge jump to assume all players won't come here unless we way overspend because a team that won with regularity for 10 years has a couple bad seasons.

 

Those 'reports' that came out saying we couldn't give our money away were from Ryan. Whining about his woes. We don't know why we couldn't give our money away. You ASSUME it's because people wouldn't come here. As assumption based on nothing, just some convenient excuse. Why couldn't it be because he wasn't willing to spend what was needed?

[jokin]

Problem is, that quality FAs are always going to require an 'overspend' which means it's no longer an overspend, but what the market actually is. If you wanna praise him for not 'overspending', either in years or money, you might as well say that you're happy if he never signs a true quality FA.

 

Too many folks applauding and lauding useless financial style points- "risk management" infers that there is also risk involved in not taking on enough risk (commensurate with the available year-to-year budget projection).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And to your larger point, part of the problem with being afraid to make mistakes is that it also means you are afraid to take risks. I, for one, think taking risks comes with the position. I'm not sure Ryan has ever accepted that when it comes to contracts.

 

I'm not sure TR is afraid to take risks as much as that he's afraid to take certain risks.

 

Case in point:

 

This offseason he (from the looks of it) sold high on Span and Revere and handed CF to Hicks. While I doubt anyone expected Hicks to be as bad as he was in April, I do think that they expected some bumps in the road, and were willing to take the risk of handing CF to Hicks with his only real backup being Benson. Ryan seems quite willing to take risks such as this. He's made trades over and over again in his career, and it would be fairly difficult to find a trade where he was on the losing side. He takes those kinds of risks, but from experience, he and his staff have a process in place that works far more than it doesn't.

 

The risks he won't take often are the FA signings. He has done those in the past, and those have burned the Twins far more than failed trades have. Some, like Mike Lamb and first RonDL White were considered pretty decent moves given the Twins needs/budget/etc, but those ended failing pretty miserably. Some, like Willingham and Doumit, have paid for themselves. I agree that the free agency fodder that Ryan tends to target has not helped him either.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure TR is afraid to take risks as much as that he's afraid to take certain risks.

 

Agreed, he takes some risks with trades. I was very careful to note that he's risk averse with contracts - you just might have missed that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Agreed, he takes some risks with trades. I was very careful to note that he's risk averse with contracts - you just might have missed that.

 

point taken.

[drjim]

I believe you are mistaken, because I've seen plenty of people throughout different forums, to include here, who blame the Pohlads for not giving Ryan the money to spend. That Ryan is basically building a team with the orders to continue to cut payroll.

 

Of course, not all Ryan defenders do, but I'm not saying all do.

 

I won't comment about other foruns because I don't visit them but I would say the same people who float the theort that Pohlads want to cut payroll and make money above all else are not Ryan supporters. That was the observation I was making.

 

I have never read someone say that Ryan would sign more free agents if only the Pohlads would loosen the purse strings. For better or worse Ryan defenders will defend him not dipping into the free agent class fir a variety of reasons but never because he didn't have enough money in the budget.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's funny, when someone says something like this to defend Ryan, we have people line up to like it, but let's look at that claim: Do you really think Smith was "not trying" to make good decisions? You think he was indifferent somehow about whether his moves were good ones or not?

 

And to your larger point, part of the problem with being afraid to make mistakes is that it also means you are afraid to take risks. I, for one, think taking risks comes with the position. I'm not sure Ryan has ever accepted that when it comes to contracts.

 

I honestly think other GMs will too often make a decision they know is "incorrect" in order to get what they want done. The Ramos trade comes to mind, in my opinion one of the worst the Twins have made in a decade. Ryan would never have made that trade because it simply was bad AND didn't have the benefit of putting us over the top talent-wise. Perhaps Smith thought he was the piece that would bring a championship, but if so I'd vehemently disagree with that assessment. More likely he simply wanted a good reliever and far too easily made the call to way overpay for one. Sure, there is a very real element of risk/reward in every move, and I do think there is a time when overpaying becomes the "correct" decision. But not last offseason, and in my mind not unless you are sure it will bring you the piece(es) that make you a strong contender. And even then you are still mortgaging a part of your future, the short term benefits simply outweigh the long term detriments (you hope).

[Joe A. Preusser]

I don't think it's a huge jump at all...not in any way. I think it's a huge jump to assume all players won't come here unless we way overspend because a team that won with regularity for 10 years has a couple bad seasons.

 

Those 'reports' that came out saying we couldn't give our money away were from Ryan. Whining about his woes. We don't know why we couldn't give our money away. You ASSUME it's because people wouldn't come here. As assumption based on nothing, just some convenient excuse. Why couldn't it be because he wasn't willing to spend what was needed?

 

For what it's worth, I put very little stock in the notion that we had to overpay to "lure" free agents here. I simply think that Ryan assessed and assigned a value to each free agent and wouldn't offer them any more than that. End of story. The market appeared to be very kind to some marginally top-end pitchers last offseason. Overpaying is overpaying, and is usually an incorrect decision. I won't make any excuses for this because it doesn't need any excuses. He is doing is job, making (or trying to) good value decisions and not hurting us 3-4 years down the road when we expect to be really good again. And if you look at the crop of last year's free agent pitchers people thought we should go after (there is an ongoing list in another thread) it certainly looks like a lot of teams overpayed and that Ryan's evaluations of worth were proven correct.

 

You say what was needed, but that is a very unclear sentiment.

[TheLeviathan]

The Ramos trade comes to mind, in my opinion one of the worst the Twins have made in a decade.

 

Sure, it was a bad trade. But you don't think you're going out on a pretty untenable limb to suggest Smith knew it was one of the worst deals in a decade and still pulled the trigger? You're welcome to suggest his mindset was wrong (mis-evaluated Capps or Ramos or something) but to suggest he knowingly made a stupid trade?

 

Cmon. That's just not a reasonable position.

 

And even then you are still mortgaging a part of your future, the short term benefits simply outweigh the long term detriments (you hope).

 

That's fine, but this issue has been hammered over and over. Never, in Ryan's career, has he given any indication of willingness to do this. You can suggest until the cows come home that the circumstances are different, but this is a guy who has gone on the record about his lack of comfort with contracts to pitchers past 3 years. It's one thing to be cautious, it's another to have a debilitating view of risk-averse contracts. To date, that's all we've seen from him, even after an offseason promise to upgrade the rotation. (Which, clearly, has not worked out)

 

So I'm going to need some sign of hope before I can buy into all the other reasons people suggest. I'm going to need to see the propensity to actually do it before I accept that he's just being prudent.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Sure, it was a bad trade. But you don't think you're going out on a pretty untenable limb to suggest Smith knew it was one of the worst deals in a decade and still pulled the trigger? You're welcome to suggest his mindset was wrong (mis-evaluated Capps or Ramos or something) but to suggest he knowingly made a stupid trade?

 

Cmon. That's just not a reasonable position.

 

 

 

That's fine, but this issue has been hammered over and over. Never, in Ryan's career, has he given any indication of willingness to do this. You can suggest until the cows come home that the circumstances are different, but this is a guy who has gone on the record about his lack of comfort with contracts to pitchers past 3 years. It's one thing to be cautious, it's another to have a debilitating view of risk-averse contracts. To date, that's all we've seen from him, even after an offseason promise to upgrade the rotation. (Which, clearly, has not worked out)

 

So I'm going to need some sign of hope before I can buy into all the other reasons people suggest. I'm going to need to see the propensity to actually do it before I accept that he's just being prudent.

 

Fair point about needing to see Ryan actually perform that endgame FA pickup, I agree he hasn't done much in that vein in the past. But just because he might not get that part right doesn't mean things suddenly change at this point in the rebuild process. It is still probably only appropriate to overspend when that move puts you over the top. Throwing money away now is still a bad move.

 

No, I don't think Smith sat down and said "Hmmm, this Ramos trade is just awful and will kill us down the road, but I think I'll do it anyway." However, I think if you want something bad enough and you are impatient enough, it can be very easy to talk yourself into an unwise course of action. I've purchased many things that I had to talk pretty fast to justify to my wife and even myself. Then three weeks later comes the buyers remorse.

[TheLeviathan]

It is still probably only appropriate to overspend when that move puts you over the top. Throwing money away now is still a bad move.

 

We can agree to disagree here - I get your point, but I just don't think these perfect moments are all that predictable. Timetables can change quickly, I'd rather be aggressive when it's possible than be left holding the bag and wishing you had been.

 

I've purchased many things that I had to talk pretty fast to justify to my wife and even myself. Then three weeks later comes the buyers remorse.

 

Impatience is different than brazen incompetence. I agree that Ryan is patient and that is often to his benefit. I'd also argue that feeds directly to my point at the end of my first reply: caution is a great strength, unless you let it become a vice. (Borderline pathologically risk averse) If you become too worried about not making mistakes, you miss opportunities.

[Kwak]

For what it's worth, I put very little stock in the notion that we had to overpay to "lure" free agents here. I simply think that Ryan assessed and assigned a value to each free agent and wouldn't offer them any more than that. End of story. The market appeared to be very kind to some marginally top-end pitchers last offseason. Overpaying is overpaying, and is usually an incorrect decision. I won't make any excuses for this because it doesn't need any excuses. He is doing is job, making (or trying to) good value decisions and not hurting us 3-4 years down the road when we expect to be really good again. And if you look at the crop of last year's free agent pitchers people thought we should go after (there is an ongoing list in another thread) it certainly looks like a lot of teams overpayed and that Ryan's evaluations of worth were proven correct.

 

You say what was needed, but that is a very unclear sentiment.

 

You gave Ryan's definition of overpay--good for you! Ryan assigns a value to a player and spending more than that--is overpaying. Some might say that is arrogant--maybe that is what GMs do at their annual meetings is assign values to players (there isn't a press release), but he doesn't chase much. This all but guarantees only lesser talent, because all teams want quality and a few million more is just part of the game (within the game). Until Ryan starts to get competitive in the free agent market, his only choice to rebuild effectively is through the draft--and that is a slow process--maybe very slow.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Because he has zero fear in losing his job during a rebuilding period and wants that money for 2014 and beyond. That's my thinking and hopefully it's the case.

either that, or he never intended to be around long enough to see the rebuild get turned into competitive baseball. He may have been brought in to rebuild the farm and that's it. The rest of this might just be trying to avoid mutiny

[The Wise One]

Agreed, he takes some risks with trades. I was very careful to note that he's risk averse with contracts - you just might have missed that.

Not to nitpick but any contract signed by a player for above the minimum is a risk. Are the Twins getting their 7 mill worth out of Willingham this year?, whatever out of Doumit? They were not Ryan's contracts but a win on Mauer thusfar, a loss for Morneau. Risks in signing players long term. Burton gets extended. He can only pitch about 3 times a week. There is risk in signing a pitcher like that.

You probably were trying to say once again that he does not sign FA to four year contracts while ignoring the trend of GM's to avoid those types of contracts. Only 5 or so are given out per year lately.

[The Wise One]

You gave Ryan's definition of overpay--good for you! Ryan assigns a value to a player and spending more than that--is overpaying. Some might say that is arrogant--maybe that is what GMs do at their annual meetings is assign values to players (there isn't a press release), but he doesn't chase much. This all but guarantees only lesser talent, because all teams want quality and a few million more is just part of the game (within the game). Until Ryan starts to get competitive in the free agent market, his only choice to rebuild effectively is through the draft--and that is a slow process--maybe very slow.

 

Could you please give an example of a team effectively rebuilt through free agency in the last 5 years?

[TheLeviathan]

You probably were trying to say once again that he does not sign FA to four year contracts while ignoring the trend of GM's to avoid those types of contracts. Only 5 or so are given out per year lately.

 

In his entire career - a span longer than most GMs in the league are ever afforded - he's never done more than three years for any player that didn't involve arbitration years.

 

If this team had 2 elite SP prospects and a collection of very good ones on the way, I could see how his strategy to FA over the years might work. (Think OAK or Tam) But we need pitchers - good ones won't come for less than 5 years and without a lot of risk.

 

So yes, he's going to have to get comfortable with either that risk or dealing mutiple prospects in a trade. You take your pick....either way he hasn't demonstrated that propensity yet.

[howieramone1406390264]

In his entire career - a span longer than most GMs in the league are ever afforded - he's never done more than three years for any player that didn't involve arbitration years.

 

If this team had 2 elite SP prospects and a collection of very good ones on the way, I could see how his strategy to FA over the years might work. (Think OAK or Tam) But we need pitchers - good ones won't come for less than 5 years and without a lot of risk.

 

So yes, he's going to have to get comfortable with either that risk or dealing mutiple prospects in a trade. You take your pick....either way he hasn't demonstrated that propensity yet.

 

The other alternative is, he is can wait for his own pitching prospects to develop and continue to augment that with second tier free agents as he has done in the past. I'm not sure any GM choses to go after the top SP free agents as their preferred way of doing business, and I can't foresee a set of circumstances which would force Ryan to do so. With the new found prominence of our farm system, I wouldn't rule out Ryan dealing prospects from a position of strength if he should chose.

[TheLeviathan]

The other alternative is, he is can wait for his own pitching prospects to develop .

 

We have an excellent farm, but it's not built on pitching prospects. In Ryan's career as a GM, how many elite SP have we developed successfully? No matter how you shake things, he's got things to prove before they can be relied on.

 

Could he trade players? Sure, he might be able to continually swing those types of deals, but that's difficult as well. And even if you do, you might be playing a zero-sum game - you're not adding from outside the organization, you're just shuffling your own deck.

[jokin]

The other alternative is, he is can wait for his own pitching prospects to develop and continue to augment that with second tier free agents as he has done in the past. I'm not sure any GM choses to go after the top SP free agents as their preferred way of doing business, and I can't foresee a set of circumstances which would force Ryan to do so. With the new found prominence of our farm system, I wouldn't rule out Ryan dealing prospects from a position of strength if he should chose.

 

The history of "Augmentation" for Terry Ryan, Part Deux, has not been Second Tier FAs, try 3rd Tier and major reclamation projects only. As far as his own pitching prospects, if TR is really intent on waiting out the "development phase", he has a separate internal situation of repeated busts*** or questionable removals by curious trade, that of its own accord, has been entirely problematic and dicey through both TR 1 and 2, as well as Bill Smith.......and, based on the typical washout rate of legitimate prospect pitching arms, he therefore needs to double the number of legit potential prospects for both the front and back end of the rotation.

 

 

 

*** Patrick Reusse brought up the topic this evening, relating how many $Millions that the low-budget Tampa Bay Rays invest in kinesiological development and maintainance, mechanics, video and statistical breakdown and analysis, and injury prevention and remediation,

 

meanwhile, he suggests that the Twins approach is to spread a little Tiger Balm on sore shoulders, manage by magic number pitch count and hope that the PTC philosophy centered around limiting BBs, together with enough lucky and fortunate contact outcomes, will prevail more often than fail.

 

I grant that Patrick may have overstated the case, and that his opinion is somewhat outdated given the club's recent attempts at upgrading its minor league pitching, but his criticism is clearly still valid at the major league level- and there is yet to be evidence presented that the Twins are pursuing upgrades to match what teams like the Rays do in terms of pitching development.

[beckmt]

I think the time will come to spend extra money to fix the holes. That probably will not be until 2015 or 2016. You need to know what the next wave will bring and what holes you need to fill. Right now I am guessing SS and pitching will be the main holes. SS may not be if Dozier can play there and Rosario takes over 2B with Florimon as the Utility player. Playing for SP seems to only work if you pay the top end guys and even that is dangerous, but CC, Greinke, Verlander, and a few others are turning out to be worth it. Second line starters are generally paid too much and are loss leaders.

[Jack Torse]

Terry Ryan wouldn't lie about something like that.

[Kwak]

Could you please give an example of a team effectively rebuilt through free agency in the last 5 years?

 

This year's Red Sox.

 

But as so often the defenders counter-attack free agent spending as if that can't be used in conjunction with the draft--they can work together!

[Guest USAFChief]

One theory: if the roster he constructed had been able to stay at the margins of the pennant race, he could have made a trade-deadline deal that involved taking on someone else's payroll headache by using the cash instead of giving up a meaningful prospect.

 

 

Possible, but:

1. I don't think he needed to save $30m-$40m-ish in order to take on some salary. That seems...excessive.

 

2. If that was his plan, he misread his team's potential pretty badly, no? Badly enough that perhaps it calls into question his ability to judge talent, I'd say. And personally I don't think he's that bad, so IMO we can rule that out.

 

3. The Twins have always said they have separate budgets for MLB, MiLB, drafts, and international FAs. I guess at the end of the day it all comes from the same place, but at the least they have said that's how they do their accounting, so I don't think it's reasonable to think that maybe they'll spend more elsewhere. Even if one disagrees with my point, the rules for drafting and signing int'l FAs have changed, and they have a fixed amount they can spend these days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1. I don't think he needed to save $30m-$40m-ish in order to take on some salary. That seems...excessive.

 

I LOLed.

[Dman]

Possible, but:

1. I don't think he needed to save $30m-$40m-ish in order to take on some salary. That seems...excessive.

 

.

 

I think that is what the risk takers are saying. There is plenty of room to take a risk and it won't even be that risky if it completely fails because you are still building through the draft etc.

 

It is getting harder to be an apologist for Ryan. I think he is just determined to rebuild like the A's, Pirates, Houston etc. on the cheap through the draft and int'l signings. Likely will take longer but should leave the team in good shape once he is done.

 

As much as the guy frustrates me I still like him in the GM role.

[nokomismod]

It's certainly possible...but personally I have a hard time understanding why a GM in Ryan's situation would intentionally withhold significant salary if it's available.

I'm no psychologist, but I play one in my head, and I think he has a miser/martyr gene. I think Ryan would get the ultimate satisfaction from winning on a low budget with in house talent. He is willing to take time to rebuild this way (just look at the 93-2000 reboot the Twins went through).

The Pohlads are good businessmen and they want to win and have a healthy business. I don't know if they will be as patient during this next rebuild (I sure hope it doesn't take 7 years this time). We need that Chuck Knoblauch trade to get the ball rolling.

[nokomismod]

Could you please give an example of a team effectively rebuilt through free agency in the last 5 years?

 

I would count the Giants as well. Many of their key role players were mid level free agents. However both the Giants and Red Sox had starting pitching talent that performed up to expectations (when they were/are winning).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm no psychologist, but I play one in my head, and I think he has a miser/martyr gene. I think Ryan would get the ultimate satisfaction from winning on a low budget with in house talent. He is willing to take time to rebuild this way (just look at the 93-2000 reboot the Twins went through).

The Pohlads are good businessmen and they want to win and have a healthy business. I don't know if they will be as patient during this next rebuild (I sure hope it doesn't take 7 years this time). We need that Chuck Knoblauch trade to get the ball rolling.

 

Ryan was at the helm in 96 when the Twins went free agent crazy, though they were old free agents. He didn't start the rebuild in earnest until the following season, before which he was kind of half-assing a proper rebuild (and boy, did he bungle some of those early moves).

 

In short, there is no need to fear a seven year rebuild. Ryan re-entered the GM position in 2011 with a shaky but full-of-potential farm system. Less than two years later, it's the best farm system in baseball. If we don't see the fruits of this system by 2015, I'd be very disappointed.

[howieramone1406390264]

This year's Red Sox.

 

But as so often the defenders counter-attack free agent spending as if that can't be used in conjunction with the draft--they can work together!

I believe the defenders are onboard with using 2nd tier free agents to fill in the pieces. IMHO the disagreement is confined as to whether it is a necessity to pursue top tier free agents, specifically starting pitching. I don't see this fundamental disagreement ever ending.

[LaBombo]

@PMac21 i’m confused. @TwinsPrez has been clear about that since before season started. Is it that people forgot he said that?

 

It's hard to understand why anybody would put a great deal of stock in anything that Terry Ryan says about the direction of the franchise at this point.

 

Am a big fan of some of his work and not intending to impugn his integrity, but honestly, are people still not aware that his contact with the media is solely intended to further the goals of the franchise? Or that it's the same story with pretty much any other front office people for any other team, and in any other sport as well?